10 million is unrealistic in Dec 16?

[vendetta]

I don't want to come down as a pessimistic, I am far from it.
I just looked at Ronpaulgraph (http://ronpaulgraphs.com/index.html) and it says the total amount of donors for q4 is 85,248, as of this writing.

My question is apart from the fact that it will need 100,000 donor to donate 100 each to make 10 million dollars, the chances of that many donors donating 100 atleast onthe same day is preety slim. Considering other factors like, maxed out donors and not everyone donates 100 but perhaps a lot less, it's most likely the number of maxed out donors have helped keep the donation average at 95 right now, so they wont be able to contribute on dec 16.

As much as I would love to see ronpaul get 100million on Dec 16 I think a more realistic number would be 5-6 million at best. Unless ofcourse we get some amazing press coverage about this donation (more USAtoday-like advertisements about Dec16) on major news outlet and huge following of new members willing to donate on that day.

We need to promote the crap out of this event in the the next 32 days!!

From my part I have told every single co-workers about him and almost everyone I personally know and care about ( and also the few I don't care about;) )

Cheers for Ron Paul,
V

[hopeforamerica]

Ha, you sound like the naysayers for the Nov. 5th. They said it would get 1 mil if we were lucky. Stop it!

[JJ2K1]

The only way this would be impossible is if he has so many donors that the server goes down.

[Naraku]

There are probably 80,000 donors with cash on hand and I'd say a sizable amount will manage $100 by December 16th. I'm thinking maybe 60,000 could manage it. There are quite a few who will also manage to go over $100, even to as much as $1,000.

There's also going to be a lot of new donors.

[Apauled]

Watch out for the surprises that will occur through the Schiffs and Rodgers, etc..

5000 clients x $2300 = $11,500,000

[BLS]

I don't want to come down as a pessimistic, I am far from it.
I just looked at Ronpaulgraph (http://ronpaulgraphs.com/index.html) and it says the total amount of donors for q4 is 85,248, as of this writing.

My question is apart from the fact that it will need 100,000 donor to donate 100 each to make 10 million dollars, the chances of that many donors donating 100 atleast onthe same day is preety slim. Considering other factors like, maxed out donors and not everyone donates 100 but perhaps a lot less, it's most likely the number of maxed out donors have helped keep the donation average at 95 right now, so they wont be able to contribute on dec 16.

As much as I would love to see ronpaul get 100million on Dec 16 I think a more realistic number would be 5-6 million at best. Unless ofcourse we get some amazing press coverage about this donation (more USAtoday-like advertisements about Dec16) on major news outlet and huge following of new members willing to donate on that day.

We need to promote the crap out of this event in the the next 32 days!!

From my part I have told every single co-workers about him and almost everyone I personally know and care about ( and also the few I don't care about;) )

Cheers for Ron Paul,
V

Welcome Troll.

[shepburn]

$10M will be a peice of cake :o)

[Question_Authority]

Why not shoot for the stars? Originally Nov 5 was supposed to be $10M too. But we "only" got $4M. Nobody was too upset and it was not considered a failure. So, let's say $10M and see what happens.

And remember, only 18,000 had signed up, which at $100 each would have been $1.8M. But we got $4m! So, now, more than a MONTH before Dec 16 there are over 9000 people pledged already! Believe me, we will blow Nov 5 out of the water!!!!!

[Sematary]

I don't want to come down as a pessimistic, I am far from it.
I just looked at Ronpaulgraph (http://ronpaulgraphs.com/index.html) and it says the total amount of donors for q4 is 85,248, as of this writing.

My question is apart from the fact that it will need 100,000 donor to donate 100 each to make 10 million dollars, the chances of that many donors donating 100 atleast onthe same day is preety slim. Considering other factors like, maxed out donors and not everyone donates 100 but perhaps a lot less, it's most likely the number of maxed out donors have helped keep the donation average at 95 right now, so they wont be able to contribute on dec 16.

As much as I would love to see ronpaul get 100million on Dec 16 I think a more realistic number would be 5-6 million at best. Unless ofcourse we get some amazing press coverage about this donation (more USAtoday-like advertisements about Dec16) on major news outlet and huge following of new members willing to donate on that day.

We need to promote the crap out of this event in the the next 32 days!!

From my part I have told every single co-workers about him and almost everyone I personally know and care about ( and also the few I don't care about;) )

Cheers for Ron Paul,
V

Not only is 10 mil doable but it could easily be surpassed. This event is getting FAR MORE attention than Nov 5 - the number of signatories is multiplying quickly AND it is already getting media attention.

[kylejack]

Only 1.98% of donors are maxed out. Its very do-able. 11/5 was done on an average donation of $103.

[werdd]

we can easily double our efforts on november 5th...... everyone said wed prolly only hit 1 million. well we exceeded their expectations 4 fold.

[loupeznik]

really reminds me of 0ct.26, 2007.

[Flash]

A lot of people like me never donated on the 5th of november, we are waiting to spend it all on 16th.

[hopeforamerica]

A lot of people like me never donated on the 5th of november, we are waiting to spend it all on 16th.

Welcome Flash!!!:D

[csen]

We had 18,000 subscribers on thisnovember5th.com and raised $4mln.
We already have over 10,000 subscribers on teaparty07.com and we're still 32 days away -- $10mln is very, very doable.

[slantedview]

with some dedication, piece of cake.

[Tratzman]

I think $10 million is way too low . I expect a tsunami to hit on the 16th.

Chad

[John of Des Moines]

Watch out for the surprises that will occur through the Schiffs and Rodgers, etc..

5000 clients x $2300 = $11,500,000

And let's not forget the people down at the Mercantile Exchange who cheered for Paul when he took the Fed head Bernanke to task. And with Paul beginning to tv advertise and with our continued efforts I think this movement is about to became much larger then what people were thinking two weeks ago.

[Pete]

November 5th was put together in what, 3 weeks? The Tea Party has been alive for week and has 5 more weeks to run. We have 10,000 signups already, and probably less than 50,000 will be enough because of multiple signup sites and many people won't sign up. I didn't for 11/5 and gave $200.

The Tea Party will have full page newspaper ads, and has been receiving mentions in the major media.

The sky is the absolute limit for this one, especially if the general public should catch on fire. $10 million is a modest goal. On the upside, $100 million is not impossible, and I'd like to see the MSM try to ignore or minimize Dr. Paul after that!

[Patrick Henry]

I don't want to come down as a pessimistic, I am far from it.
I just looked at Ronpaulgraph (http://ronpaulgraphs.com/index.html) and it says the total amount of donors for q4 is 85,248, as of this writing.

My question is apart from the fact that it will need 100,000 donor to donate 100 each to make 10 million dollars, the chances of that many donors donating 100 atleast onthe same day is preety slim. Considering other factors like, maxed out donors and not everyone donates 100 but perhaps a lot less, it's most likely the number of maxed out donors have helped keep the donation average at 95 right now, so they wont be able to contribute on dec 16.

As much as I would love to see ronpaul get 100million on Dec 16 I think a more realistic number would be 5-6 million at best. Unless ofcourse we get some amazing press coverage about this donation (more USAtoday-like advertisements about Dec16) on major news outlet and huge following of new members willing to donate on that day.

We need to promote the crap out of this event in the the next 32 days!!

From my part I have told every single co-workers about him and almost everyone I personally know and care about ( and also the few I don't care about;) )

Cheers for Ron Paul,
V

The 16th is going to be huge. How huge is anybody's guess. I guarantee you though, that this will break all the previous records by a huge margin. :cool:

[Avalon]

Watch out for the surprises that will occur through the Schiffs and Rodgers, etc..

5000 clients x $2300 = $11,500,000

IIRC Schiff's email didn't say anything about the tea party; it asked people to donate $2300 right away. So we've probably already received the majority of what's coming from his subscribers. Maybe he'll send out another email and pull in a few hundred thousand, but I wouldn't expect anything more than that. Don't expect anyone else to do the heavy lifting...we all need to save to donate as much as we can.

[Visual]

Welcome Troll.

Trolls ftl...

[Cindy]

Only 1.98% of donors are maxed out. Its very do-able. 11/5 was done on an average donation of $103.

Exactly! People need to stop acting as if and saying that RP's doners are maxxed out. Only 1.98% are. He will have a lot of new ones by then also.

With the added time to promote and save up, and people seeing why it's worth it media wise to get in on something like this, many will be donating more then just $100 on that day, especially because, we are getting down to last chances for Paul to spend the cash on the early states.

I am expecting to surpass $10,000,000. raised in one day on the 16th

I know that I am not the only one doing things like adding promo flyers for it to my slim jims, and doing stuff like adding the promo video for it at the end of a Ron Paul CD ROM handout, and putting links to it in our signatures at other forums.


Worrying about the outcome won't help it. Promoting it will.

[guerillaeffect]

I know I'll be adding $540 on the day. Maybe more. It all depends on what happens. I think many people realize that this will be the last moment to really give all we have. I think people that were part of Nov. 5th are going to push to their absolute boundaries. This is going to be a moment in time reflected for many years to come. If we can do it, there will be a wave of change in the oceans of confusion. Many people still haven't decided who to vote for. If he makes the money, more people will be willing to listen...

[VoteRonPaul2008]

I'll donate but I have a question, how many people pledged to donate on Nov. 5 vs how many really did? anyone know the numbers?

[Tenbatsu]

18k+ pledged 38k+ donated.

[Fyretrohl]

And, 17k+, as I recall, were first time donators. I wil be on the 16th.

[TheNewYorker]

I'll agree with the OP, 10mil is unrealistic, we can't get that much unless a miracle happens between now and dec 16th.

Yes, we are going to do better than Nov 5th, no doubt. We should get at least 6 million, beating Hillary's so called "record". But 10 million will be difficult. Right now, it's not going to happen, unless we can really get the word out there and get people to donate.

[Original_Intent]

It's very doable, my only concern is that donations dry up between now and the tea party. I realize the importance of a big splash like the 5th, but we also need a steady stream. Considering what we did last week, I think this week has been pretty good.

For the 5th I predicted 1.8 million and I thought I was being crazy optimistic. Based on what happened on the 5th and also that we have more leadup time for the Tea Party I think optimistically we can double the 5th. So that is somewhere around 8.5 million.

Now I just hope that I am equally as wrong on this optimistic guess as I was on the 5th.

I also hope we are at least at 10 million by the Tea party, 10 million by the endo of November would be awesome!

[Ron Paul Fan]

Notice the people doubting us are the people who just recently registered! Don't give up because of them! We will raise at least $10 million on the 16th and at least $20 million for the quarter. Our enemies will try and divide us against each other. But the freedom message brings us together, it doesn't divide us.

[LibertyEagle]

I'll agree with the OP, 10mil is unrealistic, we can't get that much unless a miracle happens between now and dec 16th.

Yes, we are going to do better than Nov 5th, no doubt. We should get at least 6 million, beating Hillary's so called "record". But 10 million will be difficult. Right now, it's not going to happen, unless we can really get the word out there and get people to donate.

Ahhh, I can see your reservations. Stick around for awhile. You will see the unimaginable happen. :)

All we can do is to keep getting out there, every single chance we get, and spread the word about Ron Paul. Put up signs, hand out Slim Jims, get tables at gun shows, everything you can think of.

As far as the 12/16 fundraiser goes. Be here with us that day and watch the miracle happen. You too will become a believer. :D

[Cindy]

I'll donate but I have a question, how many people pledged to donate on Nov. 5 vs how many really did? anyone know the numbers?

From what I recall, it was up to 18,000 pledges (tops) and 38,000 ended up donating.

[fourameuphoria]

I do think some people are a little too optimistic. I think 10 Million is very *ambitious*, but it is doable if we go balls to the walls. So I don't think we can have this "Oh, we'll shoot right past it" attitude. We gotta put everything we have into this. This is make or break for the campaign. I think we'll still break records and all, and 6-7 million will be great, but if we hit 10 million on the Boston Tea Party, the campaign will most definately be looked at as a watershed moment in American history, and *That's some good PR*

[ronpaulitician]

I thought Nov 5th would bring in a million.

It brought in $4 million.

I think the vast majority of people who gave on Nov 5th will give again on Dec 16th. I think we'll have a lot of new people donating.

[mikesocal]

my opinion. I put A LOT of work into getting some of my family members to donate on Nov 5th and it wasn't easy but they did it. Then when they saw the news coverage they couldn't stop talking about it and actually felt good about themselves for being apart of the big donation day. I've mentioned there is going to be another day and now the ones who donated said they will again and are trying to convince other people to donate as well using their own story of reluctance about Ron Paul. Its really impossible to make guesses. You could agrue it will be even less than last time.

[MyKillK]

The Tea Party is the best idea the grassroots has come up with yet. November 5th was brilliant enough but there are a few things that set December 16th apart:

1) Mainstream anticipation -- November 5th set the precedent and gained mainstream media coverage. Some agencies like CNN have actually mentioned Tea Party 07 on-air. Every political insider will be anxiously awaiting this date to see what new precedent will be set. The emergence of the internet as a fund-raising and canvassing machine is the most exciting development in President Politics since the TV.

2) Momentum -- Ron Paul has tremendous momentum so the fact that the Tea Party is over a month away is exciting!

3) Positive connotation -- November 5th was associated with a violent movie commemorating a terrorist who tried to blow up a government building (that's how the mainstream spun it anyway...) but December 16th is associated with one of the most fond American memories, the Boston Tea Party. This is a HUGE psychological and emotional benefit!


Based on these three points I feel that December 16th will amount to something truly amazing. As grassroots supporters of Ron Paul, we should feel obligated to put our full weight behind making Tea Party 07 a success. The best idea I've heard of yet is offering hot tea to those standing in long lines on the Black Friday shopping morning. This provides a great opportunity to speak directly to the voters and offer them literature to read as well as pimp the Tea Party 07 website.

What others ideas are out there?

[jake]

be optimistic: TWENTY million is more likely than under 10 Million.!

[Thomas Paine]

I know budgets are tight for a lot of folks but if you really think about it, $100 is affordable and depending on what kind of car you drive, represents only 2-3 tanks of gas. I've spent a $100 for some pretty dumb reasons in the past (like bar tabs or a lousy dinner date) but I think donating $100 on Boston Tea Party day will be the best thing I have ever done with $100 (excepting a donation to a worthy charity). If we can hit $10,000,000 on Tea Party day, it will generate millions of dollars of FREE media for Ron Paul heading right into the Iowa Caucuses and NH Primary.

[CelestialRender]

On BOTH Nov money bombs, we raised just about 2.3x what we were pledged. So in this case, were the tea party held today, we could expect $2.3 million to come in. As it stands, we have over a month to go.

Watch this thing, it's gonna get huge.

[Gimme Some Truth]

I was all for nov 5th tho i predicted 1.2m - 1.5m at the most. I've never been so happy in being so wrong in my life :D

Dec16th can double nov5th.

[Jobarra]

I know budgets are tight for a lot of folks but if you really think about it, $100 is affordable and depending on what kind of car you drive, represents only 2-3 tanks of gas. I've spent a $100 for some pretty dumb reasons in the past (like bar tabs or a lousy dinner date) but I think donating $100 on Boston Tea Party day will be the best thing I have ever done with $100 (excepting a donation to a worthy charity). If we can hit $10,000,000 on Tea Party day, it will generate millions of dollars of FREE media for Ron Paul heading right into the Iowa Caucuses and NH Primary.
Just think of it as $100 towards insuring that you can give MORE to charities(from less or no taxes) and I think it'll be the best way you can spend $100 :D

[Primbs]

I wouldn't even try to predict how much we will take in. The campaign is growing very fast.

[Man from La Mancha]

You can never attain anything unless you can imagine it and believe it so. I find it strange that everybody expects they will die by 80, what does hurt to believe one can live to 130? Is one then disappointed that they die at 92. Why do people have this Lemming like fatalist attitude that something can't be done?? If one doesn't have a dream a dream won't come true. Did you ever imagine anybody would run an ad in USA Today? I did and I believe many more wonderful things will happen to get Ron's message and tea party out to a 100 million people which over 1 million will donate!!! Who will believe with me??

Copy and paste in emails and such, linked to teaparty07....... http://img406.imageshack.us/img406/2926/brighton5mj7.gif (teaparty07.com)

[JoshLowry]

Copy and paste in emails and such, linked to teaparty07.......http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/4121/brightron2tt6.gif (http://www.teaparty07.com)

My eyes!!!! :eek:

[Derek Johnson]

I don't want to come down as a pessimistic,.

As much as I would love to see ronpaul get 100million on Dec 16 I think a more realistic number would be 5-6 million at best. .

You are right, 10 million is wrong.

12 million will be closer.

Mark my post.

We all need to knock on some doors, have the slim jims in your back pocket, and make your case to REAL PEOPLE. E-mail and cyberspace is fine, but it's time to knock on some doors.

If we do this, talk, talk, and talk to real people, there is a RISK that Ron will win the early primary states (NH, NV, MI, SC, IA etc) if we raise 12 million on 12-16.

Ready?

Get knockin'

[someguy200]

One of the easiest ways to ensure that we raise twice as much as we did on the 5th is to give twice as much. For most people that would just be giving $200 instead of $100. Thats what I plan to do. Also, how do people feel about registering with a different e-mail for each $100 they pledge ? I think it could encourage more people to register and donate b/c the list would be bigger, and it would help more accurately predict how much we will raise, but I can see where people might not like it.

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

I'm a first-time donator that donated on Nov. 5th. I'll be donating again (and more) on Dec. 16th. I can't see it being any different for the thousands who participated in the last money bomb.

Ron Paul supporters won't just forget about him. I'm sure we all want this snowball to get bigger and faster!

[Erazmus]

The best part about Dec 16 (other than the Tea Party) is that it's the day after payday. You better believe I'm donating (again) on the 16th. I think this day is going to be phenomenal!

[austin356]

Something to note:

The average donor gave more than $100 on Nov. 5th.

4.38million / 35,000 = $125 per donor

[Buzz]

I would have considered any estimates of $4.3 mil for November 5th extremely unrealistic, so hey.


Something to note:

The average donor gave more than $100 on Nov. 5th.

4.38million / 35,000 = $125 per donor

I thought I heard that the actual average was $103 according to the campaign, but I'm not sure.

[Benaiah]

I believe that we can make 10 million on the 16th. But like previous posters have mentioned, we need to talk to real life people about this. I spend hours every week on the phone with friends and family and stress to them that they need to convert everybody they know in real life to Ron Paul.

[MikeStanart]

I think it's very realistic;

After all; I'm a very active Ron Paul supporter; And i'll be able to donate for the first time in December.

I'm sure there's many more just like me.

:-)

[Adamsa]

Looking at November 5 and how many people have already pledged to the Tea Party and how many donated who weren't signed up anyway.

It is certainly possible, probable even if we try hard enough.

[Natalie]

Ron will make at least 7 mil on Dec 16th. I cant wait!!

[fcofer]

I was all for nov 5th tho i predicted 1.2m - 1.5m at the most. I've never been so happy in being so wrong in my life :D

Dec16th can double nov5th.

Same as my story! (There's a lot of us.)

[Danny Molina]

I can't stand when people over guestimate! Pick realistic numbers people! 6.5 sounds like a very good estimation.

[john_anderson_ii]

We didn't get $10 million on Nov 5th either, but look at the stir it caused!!

Its what I call a "Hail Mary" pass. Run for the post, throw the ball, and hopefully things will work out.


"Just believe in the ball, and then throw yourself"
--Mr. T

[tmg19103]

$10 million is a done deal. Given the 2.3x conversioon rate of pledges to donors for the two Nov. money bombs, only 50,000 pledges are needed to surpass $10 million. The average donation for Nov. 5 was $103 and I'd expect the average Dec. 16 to be a little higher as people will get caught up in the frenzy.

EDIT: Still, we need to continue to market the HELL out of this. Post links wherever you can, talk it up politely and subtly in forums, hit up Facebook and MySpace, get family and friend involved, etc.

[gjdavis60]

Those of you who are being conservative are working under bad assumptions. Here's why:

The immensely positive outcome from Nov. 5 completely changes the psychological dynamic of December 16. November 5 was a leap of faith. December 16 is a sure thing; a victory parade; a bandwagon opportunity where even skeptics will shed their reservations and join the fun.

There are already at least 5 awesome, professional, compelling YouTube ads out there for the Tea Party that would make even Rudy G. think about clicking the donate button. People will be convinced.

In addition, public awareness of RP has expanded dramatically since (and because of) Nov. 5. And this fundraiser will be all over the media well BEFORE it happens, pulling in even more donors. A lot more people are going to know about the Tea Party. If the campaign is truly starting to snowball, then Dec. 16 could be another watershed moment in American politics!

Think big.

[xcalybur]

There is a big difference between a guestimation and an educated guess. Let's look at the numbers.
Nov 5th:
18,000+ Signed up
38,000+ Donated
2.1:1 ratio of signups to donated
$104 average
15 days of publicity
$4,380,000

Now Dec 16th:
Currently 11,139 people pledged.
More people will signup on the website this time bringing the ratio of actual people down. I think 1.3:1 would be like it, but I could be way off.
Based on the current signup rate of over 3000 people per day and dropping that down to about 2000 on average over the time period of 35 days we come to 70,000 signups.
At the ratio of 1.3:1 that would mean 91,000 will donate.
I also think that the average donation will go up a little. Probably in the range of $115.

That makes for a very realistic educated guess of $10,465,000. There are some variables in here and the USA today ad will probably skew some of them heavily. I wouldn't be surprised if we raised a lot more, but like I said, a good educated guess is still over $10 Million.