Gallup National Tracking Poll (2/22-2/26): Romney and Paul Up; Santorum and Gingrich Down

[RonPaulFanInGA]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx?ref=interactive

Romney: 32% (+1)
Santorum: 28% (-1)
Gingrich: 14% (-1)
Paul: 12% (+1)

Another two-point swing away from Santorum. Santorum led Romney by nine points (36%-27%) just five days ago on February 22nd. Pretty rapid decline for Santorum, and it's likely only going to get worse.

[VictorB]

Santo is going down! Just like Grinch did last month. Just in time for super Tuesday too. I honestly feel that the last debate was the tipping point when Ron put him in his place. Lots of folks are jumping the ship.

[sailingaway]

Ron should go up faster :mad:

it is this insane 'cooperating with Romney' meme....

[Esoteric]

Santo is going down! Just like Grinch did last month. Just in time for super Tuesday too. I honestly feel that the last debate was the tipping point when Ron put him in his place. Lots of folks are jumping the ship.

Now I'm worried that Santorum won't pull enough delegates from Mitt in order to cause a brokered convention.

Double-edged froth. :(

[RileyE104]

Ron should go up faster :mad:

it is this insane 'cooperating with Romney' meme....

I disagree.. People woke up about Gingrich and then turned to Santorum.

Now they are waking up about Santorum but the problem is they are now confused about where to go next.

Their only options are this:

- Stick with Santorum and suck it up.
- Forget about searching for an anti-Romney and instead hold their nose for him in November.
- Or, take another look at Ron Paul.

The last option is slowly approaching. I just hope we don't lose too many souls to the second option.

[bbwarfield]

"nose holders" probly wont show up to vote in the primary process....... sooooo.... having the inevitability of Romney could really only help.... cause Paul people know to keep showing up... and hell be the only real choice left

[RonPaulFanInGA]

it is this insane 'cooperating with Romney' meme....

Running ads against Romney in Iowa, in that window after Gingrich fell but before Santorum's "rise" and Romney was Paul's only competition for first place, would have helped to dissuade people from such a notion.

From before the media caught on:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?343722-Romney-is-1st-now!-So-how-is-that-quot-no-attack-ads-on-Romney-quot-strategy-workin-out-for-ya
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?342722-Why-don-t-the-Paul-and-Romney-campaigns-attack-each-other
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?340826-Why-is-Mitt-Romney-never-attacked

Paul's campaign created the meme by pouncing on every "surging" candidate while, by-and-large, leaving Romney alone.

[sailingaway]

I disagree.. People woke up about Gingrich and then turned to Santorum.

Now they are waking up about Santorum but the problem is they are now confused about where to go next.

Their only options are this:

- Stick with Santorum and suck it up.
- Forget about searching for an anti-Romney and instead hold their nose for him in November.
- Or, take another look at Ron Paul.

The last option is slowly approaching. I just hope we don't lose too many souls to the second option.

I think they wouldn't be 'confused' except for the fake 'cooperating with Romney' meme. Why on earth do you think Santorum the Whiner is saying it in every single speech, knowing media is reporting it in every single speech?

[francisco]

We need both Santorum and Gingrich to stay in through Super Tuesday, which is the great liklihood in any case. One big reason is Virginia where neither of them is on the ballot. Both of them have a clear incentive to openly encourage their supporters to vote for Paul in Virginia, in order to deny the delegates from Romney. I can't think of a reason for these candidates or their supporters to do otherwise. I'm actually surprised that this tactic hasn't attracted more attention. It is a certainty that either Romney or Paul will get those delegates--there is no other possibility. The courts have ruled that write-ins are not allowed. To the extent that Santorum and Gingrich don't encourage their supporters to implement that tactic, it indicates that they really aren't in it for the long haul all the way to the convention. Even then, they strengthen their hands by reducing Romney's delegate count and therefore make casting their support to him more valuable.

[sailingaway]

Running ads against Romney in Iowa, in that window after Gingrich fell but before Santorum's "rise" and Romney was Paul's only competition for first place, would have helped to dissuade people from such a notion. From before the media caught on:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?342722-Why-don-t-the-Paul-and-Romney-campaigns-attack-each-other
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?340826-Why-is-Mitt-Romney-never-attacked

(Both threads had much better thread titles on the subject before a mod. came along.)

Paul's campaign created the meme by pouncing on every "surging" candidate while, by-and-large, leaving Romney alone.

he ran ads against Romney. Three of a Kind etc etc. But his strategy was to be the anti Romney. They made choices of what would be best for them, and stuck with them. Going back to different choices and saying 'gee maybe we should have done that' doesn't mean it is a conspiracy.

[sailingaway]

We need both Santorum and Gingrich to stay in through Super Tuesday, which is the great liklihood in any case. One big reason is Virginia where neither of them is on the ballot. Both of them have a clear incentive to openly encourage their supporters to vote for Paul in Virginia, in order to deny the delegates from Romney. I can't think of a reason for these candidates or their supporters to do otherwise. I'm actually surprised that this tactic hasn't attracted more attention. It is a certainty that either Romney or Paul will get those delegates--there is no other possibility. The courts have ruled that write-ins are not allowed. To the extent that Santorum and Gingrich don't encourage their supporters to implement that tactic, it indicates that they really aren't in it for the long haul all the way to the convention. Even then, they strengthen their hands by reducing Romney's delegate count and therefore make casting their support to him more valuable.

but without them RON would reduce Romney's count more by being the only anti Romney. NO ONE is going to 'throw delegates' to RON. They are too much alike.

[Dublin4Paul]

I disagree.. People woke up about Gingrich and then turned to Santorum.

Now they are waking up about Santorum but the problem is they are now confused about where to go next.

Their only options are this:

- Stick with Santorum and suck it up.
- Forget about searching for an anti-Romney and instead hold their nose for him in November.
- Or, take another look at Ron Paul.

The last option is slowly approaching. I just hope we don't lose too many souls to the second option.

This. The time is very, very ripe for a very good, positive ad and a good electability ad, as well as constantly being on the national stage with interviews and such to take advantage of this opportunity.

The last debate destroyed Santorum, and did indeed make Ron Paul a possibility in the minds of those who wouldn't even think of it before, but it definitely didn't seal the deal quite yet, as the numbers show.

[Agorism]

Santorum focussed on dumb cultural issues again.

He's self destructing just like he did in his "man on dog" senate race where he lost by more as an incumbent than any other R has.

[bbwarfield]

wrong poll

[RonPaulFanInGA]

it is this insane 'cooperating with Romney' meme....

This out today won't help either:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?363640-STUDY-Paul-Never-Attacked-Romney-Once-During-20-Debates-Attacked-Romney-Rivals-39-Times

Sad to say, but the Paul campaign has mostly itself to blame for the meme.

[gerryb]

"cause Paul people know to keep showing up...

This is just not true, and is a very detrimental thought.

Paul people don't seem to know to show up in the first place, let alone "keep" showing up, polls be damned.

[PolicyReader]

This. The time is very, very ripe for a very good, positive ad and a good electability ad, as well as constantly being on the national stage with interviews and such to take advantage of this opportunity.

The last debate destroyed Santorum, and did indeed make Ron Paul a possibility in the minds of those who wouldn't even think of it before, but it definitely didn't seal the deal quite yet, as the numbers show.

I agree now would be an excellent time for an positive ad for Paul with an emphasis on all the reasons why he's electable.

[bluesc]

This out today won't help either:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?363640-STUDY-Paul-Never-Attacked-Romney-Once-During-20-Debates-Attacked-Romney-Rivals-39-Times

Sad to say, but the Paul campaign has mostly itself to blame for the meme.

They are cooperating with Romney. It's for mutual benefit. I'm not saying Paul wants VP, but I AM saying he wants Santorum out of the way and has no problem with coordinating with Romney to make it happen.

Of course, what I just said is huge taboo topic lately.

[CHOCOLATEsteven]

We should start pairing this meme:
Ron Paul is the Anti-Romney

With this meme:
Ron Paul is the Anti-Flip Flop.

[D.A.S.]

I think now that Santorum is coming down, it's TIME to hit Romney AND at the same time pounce on electability and talk about the latest Rasmussen poll which shows Paul beating Obama...

[D.A.S.]

I fear the campaign is one step behind now with its Santorum ad -- they shouldnt use the money to run that ad. That ad has already done the damage we needed to do. Now we need a NEW ad, quickly, to hit Romney and to put forth electability points.

[bluesc]

I fear the campaign is one step behind now with its Santorum ad -- they shouldnt use the money to run that ad. That ad has already done the damage we needed to do. Now we need a NEW ad, quickly, to hit Romney and to put forth electability points.

You're looking at overall statewide numbers while the campaign is looking at district numbers. The Paul campaign is trying to take some delegates from some districts in Michigan and they are likely trying to take Santorum down to take the delegates.

[sailingaway]

I fear the campaign is one step behind now with its Santorum ad -- they shouldnt use the money to run that ad. That ad has already done the damage we needed to do. Now we need a NEW ad, quickly, to hit Romney and to put forth electability points.

They need money.

[PolicyReader]

I fear the campaign is one step behind now with its Santorum ad -- they shouldnt use the money to run that ad. That ad has already done the damage we needed to do. Now we need a NEW ad, quickly, to hit Romney and to put forth electability points.

To the best of my knowledge ad buys are done in blocks, meaning you buy the time (time of day and length of time), span (from start to end date), and of course locations/market. Once the buy is done it's done, you don't get to say "well the ad has done its job now refund the balance of my money".
Perhaps I've totally misunderstood something, but unless I have it's not that the campaign is continuing to spend money against Santo it's that they've already spent money against him before the debate and his fall in the polls.
Again perhaps I am mistaken (was there another ad buy recently? does the process not work as I outlined above?), but if I'm not hasn't the ship sailed on this?

All that aside I think you're right that another ad which goes for the throat vs Mitt via electability would be quite well timed and it'd be great to see one.

[sailingaway]

To the best of my knowledge ad buys are done in blocks, meaning you buy the time (time of day and length of time), span (from start to end date), and of course locations/market. Once the buy is done it's done, you don't get to say "well the ad has done its job now refund the balance of my money".
Perhaps I've totally misunderstood something, but unless I have it's not that the campaign is continuing to spend money against Santo it's that they've already spent money against him before the debate and his fall in the polls.
Again perhaps I am mistaken (was there another ad buy recently? does the process not work as I outlined above?), but if I'm not hasn't the ship sailed on this?

All that aside I think you're right that another ad which goes for the throat vs Mitt via electability would be quite well timed and it'd be great to see one.

He only spent $50,000 in cable on that Santorum ad, it was mostly a web ad publicized by media as intended.

[D.A.S.]

He only spent $50,000 in cable on that Santorum ad, it was mostly a web ad publicized by media as intended.

That's a good strategy then!

Yea, I'm not sure how their block ad buys work, so I'm sure I've overlooked some points with my statement above.

[pauliticalfan]

Yo yo yo looks like some more movement on the Gallups. Everyone else going down, Paul moving up. Could be third soon.

[D.A.S.]

Yo yo yo looks like some more movement on the Gallups. Everyone else going down, Paul moving up. Could be third soon.

Nice! We're up another point. We need to overtake the Grinch in the national polls already!

[fatjohn]

"nose holders" probly wont show up to vote in the primary process....... sooooo.... having the inevitability of Romney could really only help.... cause Paul people know to keep showing up... and hell be the only real choice left

You make the wrong assumption that one can use logic to describe the actions of an illogical group of people.

[bronxboy10]

Deserves its own thread...

[fatjohn]

Wow, Frothorum is crashing harder than the self proclaimed nominee ever did.

[Brett85]

Wow, Frothorum is crashing harder than the self proclaimed nominee ever did.

Yeah, but unfortunately he'll surge again if he wins Michigan tonight.

[Keith and stuff]

In the new tracking poll, Ron Paul is only 1 point down from a tie for 3rd place. Ron Paul used to be 3rd place nationally. I think we can get back to 3rd place. People in WA and MI, keep trying. We will make 3rd!!!

[Darthbrooklyn]

You make the wrong assumption that one can use logic to describe the actions of an illogical group of people.

^^^ THIS.. If Logic were used, Ron Paul would have this whole nomination in the bag already..