Not a big crowd awaiting Santorum here in Lincoln Park, Michigan

[sailingaway]

http://desmond.yfrog.com/Himg532/scaled.php?tn=0&server=532&filename=xgvihp.jpg&xsize=640&ysize=640

http://yfrog.com/esxgvihpj

[HOLLYWOOD]

I see the chameleon Santorum doesn't miss a trick, changed his backdrop... From 'Courage' to 'Made In America'

Now out of all his spending and debt ceiling raising in the US Senate, I'm sure Santorum will come up with some absurd way he helped Michigan survice or their lives would be 10x's worse if he didn't spend on Michingan from 1992-2006.

[sailingaway]

Here's the story on it, about 150 people, they say.

LINCOLN PARK: Santorum outlines his first 100 days as president

http://www.thenewsherald.com/articles/2012/02/24/news/doc4f485d573472c180508324.txt

[roho76]

Those people wish they were at a Ron Paul rally. It looks sad in there.

[LisaNY]

It does look sad in there. I'm sure Santorum made those people feel 100x worse when they left.

[smithtg]

seriously this guy is running for president? Can you say baahhhhhhhh

[sailingaway]

Well, now that I've seriously depressed everyone with Santorum's event, here is Ron coming into the debate watch party in Arizona:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ykgvogjX7F8

[helmuth_hubener]

We want Santorum to win Michigan, though. We should be cheering for Santorum to win as much as possible vs. Romney. We need him, to keep Romney from getting the majority of delegates he needs.

[sailingaway]

We want Santorum to win Michigan, though. We should be cheering for Santorum to win as much as possible vs. Romney. We need him, to keep Romney from getting the majority of delegates he needs.

Not sure I agree with that.

[digitaldean]

We want Santorum to win Michigan, though. We should be cheering for Santorum to win as much as possible vs. Romney. We need him, to keep Romney from getting the majority of delegates he needs.

I don't think Michigan really matters at the point. Because on Super Tuesday Santorum will still win at least 4 out of the 10 states which also blocks Mitt from winning. And as long as Paul wins 3-4 from here: Washington, Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, Ohio, Vermont, or Virginia we are in a good spot.

[sailingaway]

I hope he goes to Vermont. As with Maine, I think he has a chance, but don't know if he has time to do it.

Three might be optimistic, but I hope we do it.

[helmuth_hubener]

Not sure I agree with that.

Here's the reasoning:


[answering 'could Scamtor get 1144?'] With Romney's operation? Very unlikely.

Even if Santorum were to do about as well as he realistically could do, sweeping most of the south and winning Pennsylvania (unbound delegates, folks) and Texas, Romney would still do well in a few built-in places.

Romney almost certainly wins New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, California, Oregon, Maryland, D.C., Delaware, Utah, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Illinois, regardless of how well Santorum is doing (because unless Romney drops out, he will have the money and already has the organization to compete in these places... Santorum will focus on his strengths, as he's done so far). ALL of those states except Massachusetts and Illinois vote after April 1, meaning that they are winner-take-all states.

If Romney won these states here are his "built-in" delegates:

California 169 (+3 "automatic" unbound for party chairman, RNC committee folks)
Connecticut 25 (+3 "automatic"...)
Delaware 17
D.C. 16 (+3 "automatic"...)
Illinois 66 (+3 "automatic"...)
Maryland 37
Massachusetts 38 (+3 "automatic"...)
New Jersey 50
New York 92 (+3 "automatic"...)
Oregon 26 (+3 "automatic"...)
Rhode Island 16 (+3 "automatic"...)
Utah 40

With "automatic" delegates, that's 616 delegates from those states alone, folks. Now granted, Illinois and Massachusetts are both proportional.

Assuming Romney wins 50% of both primaries plus the automatic delegates, he gets 36 from Illinois and 22 from Massachusetts.

Then he has 564 built in delegates, which, given the proportionality for those two states, is a very likely scenario.

Therefore, given that, and the delegates he already has, and the certainty of him winning more delegates in proportional states, the strong likelihood is that Mitt Romney goes to the convention with 800-900 delegates minimum, even in a worst-case-scenario.

Therefore, we should be cheering for Rick Santorum because he will force Mitt to not have the delegates he needs, and make Ron Paul into a kingmaker at the very least, if not an outright convention "compromise candidate," and of course the possibility still exists that we could win the delegates outright.

Or, to put it less verbosely: It has long been clear that there are only two candidates who have taken the time over the last several years to build actual campaigns, who have actual organizations, and thus have actual hope of winning. Those two are Romney and Paul. Romney is going to get a lot of delegates. A lot. If he gets a majority, he wins. Our hope is to not have that happen. There's no way that either Grinchy or Scamtor can get a majority, and you can quote me on that. There exists no series of events that makes that possible. It also, by the way, is very unlikely for Ron Paul to get a majority of delegates. Romney is the only one who can do that. So the choice is between:

1. Romney wins outright.
2. Brokered convention.

We want choice 2. That means Romney must be stopped.

[The_Ruffneck]

santorum has peaked , last 3 days on gallup rolling polls showing a fats decline
gingrich of all people is now rising!

[LatinsforPaul]

santorum has peaked , last 3 days on gallup rolling polls showing a fats decline
gingrich of all people is now rising!

Gingrich will RISE once again, in the South. This is good for the brokered convention scenario.

[sailingaway]

Here's the reasoning:



Or, to put it less verbosely: It has long been clear that there are only two candidates who have taken the time over the last several years to build actual campaigns, who have actual organizations, and thus have actual hope of winning. Those two are Romney and Paul. Romney is going to get a lot of delegates. A lot. If he gets a majority, he wins. Our hope is to not have that happen. There's no way that either Grinchy or Scamtor can get a majority, and you can quote me on that. There exists no series of events that makes that possible. It also, by the way, is very unlikely for Ron Paul to get a majority of delegates. Romney is the only one who can do that. So the choice is between:

1. Romney wins outright.
2. Brokered convention.

We want choice 2. That means Romney must be stopped.

I think that doesn't take the momentum issue into effect. It has been ginned up for everyone BUT Paul. He needs some,and if Santa wins Michigan, I think that will make it harder to get momentum. I see the other side, but that is where I come down on it.