Ron's up another point on Gallup's 5 day tracking poll

[sailingaway]

to 11%. Still not back up to where he was, but over that dip he had/

Santorum 34% (+2)
Romney 30% (-1)
Gingrich 14% -
Paul 11% (+1)
Other 2%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx?ref=interactive

[Dublin4Paul]

Pretty good, hopefully we can overcome Gingrich in this poll soon, as some other polls have indicated.

[69360]

Santorum is up another 2. He's now even with the highest Gingrich and Romney have ever peaked at in the RCP average. So he's either going to stick and win the whole thing or crash and burn soon. It'll be interesting to see if Gingrich and Romney's super pacs unload on him in the next week or so.

I think Ron is going to be outpolling Gingrich soon in this and the RCP average.

[MsDoodahs]

I sure hope we overcome Gingrinch soon.

[Constitutional Paulicy]

Santorum is up another 2. So he's either going to stick and win the whole thing or crash and burn soon.

I'd put money on the crash and burn theory.

[sailingaway]

I'd put money on the crash and burn theory.

Romney's just waiting until he isn't fighting the post 'hat trick' enthusiasm, which should be any day now. He has an ad on Santorum, but I expect it to ratchet up. I'm hoping that works to Ron's benefit.

[Jeremy]

Santorum is up another 2. He's now even with the highest Gingrich and Romney have ever peaked at in the RCP average. So he's either going to stick and win the whole thing or crash and burn soon. It'll be interesting to see if Gingrich and Romney's super pacs unload on him in the next week or so.

I think Ron is going to be outpolling Gingrich soon in this and the RCP average. So far, all of the places Santorum won will probably earn a lot of delegates for Paul. In other words, Romney is benefiting from Paul.

[BUSHLIED]

What I don't understand is how Ron goes up and down from week to week. I doubt that the people who say they support Ron then don't support him. What I think is occurring is simply variance and the point or two up is meaningless. To me, it looks like Ron has already peaked nationally at around 15%. Other than VA, I think that Ron is going to get around 15% in the primary states. Certainly not enough to win first or second. 20% would be nice but the campaign has to do something about that. The longer this goes on, the harder it gets to win. All the focus will be on Santorum and Romney. There is only one more debate after AZ in OR..that'll be Ron's last chance at a national spotlight.

[69360]

What I don't understand is how Ron goes up and down from week to week. I doubt that the people who say they support Ron then don't support him. What I think is occurring is simply variance and the point or two up is meaningless. To me, it looks like Ron has already peaked nationally at around 15%. Other than VA, I think that Ron is going to get around 15% in the primary states. Certainly not enough to win first or second. 20% would be nice but the campaign has to do something about that. The longer this goes on, the harder it gets to win. All the focus will be on Santorum and Romney. There is only one more debate after AZ in OR..that'll be Ron's last chance at a national spotlight.

A few points here and there is just statistical noise in the poll. When he dropped from 14 to 8 that was something.

[WD-NY]

just keep swimming, just keep swimming

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_d2eBY9yF6m4/SoTgKeay36I/AAAAAAAAHY4/6GOeKO0jvqE/s400/Finding+Nemo+(13).jpg

[sailingaway]

What I don't understand is how Ron goes up and down from week to week. I doubt that the people who say they support Ron then don't support him. What I think is occurring is simply variance and the point or two up is meaningless. To me, it looks like Ron has already peaked nationally at around 15%. Other than VA, I think that Ron is going to get around 15% in the primary states. Certainly not enough to win first or second. 20% would be nice but the campaign has to do something about that. The longer this goes on, the harder it gets to win. All the focus will be on Santorum and Romney. There is only one more debate after AZ in OR..that'll be Ron's last chance at a national spotlight.

He got what, 27% in New Hampshire...

[James Madison]

Statistical noise.

[69360]

He got what, 27% in New Hampshire...

Somewhere around there. 30+% in primary is entirely possible.

[Feeding the Abscess]

What I don't understand is how Ron goes up and down from week to week. I doubt that the people who say they support Ron then don't support him. What I think is occurring is simply variance and the point or two up is meaningless. To me, it looks like Ron has already peaked nationally at around 15%. Other than VA, I think that Ron is going to get around 15% in the primary states. Certainly not enough to win first or second. 20% would be nice but the campaign has to do something about that. The longer this goes on, the harder it gets to win. All the focus will be on Santorum and Romney. There is only one more debate after AZ in OR..that'll be Ron's last chance at a national spotlight.

Probably 2/3 of his support his hard, 1/3 is soft. It's typically the other way around, if not to an even greater ratio, for other candidates.

[BUSHLIED]

He got what, 27% in New Hampshire...

Ron dumped money and time in NH, a state that was highly independent...a rare primary state for Paul. I am not knocking Paul but my hypothesis is that Ron will poll very close to 15% (give or take) in primary states like NY.

IA, NV, MN, CO, ME were caucuses.

FL (7%), SC (13%), MO (12%), and NH (23%) were primaries.

So far if you take the average: 13.75%. Ron's national RCP average: 12.3%. Not that far off for Primaries. This is why MSM says that Ron's support has a ceiling and is not very broad. So far, it is true. If Ron breaks 25% in a primary, I'll be shocked.

The RCP Average suggests to me that Ron may come in single digits in some primary states and obviously 25-30% in the remaining caucus states.

[sailingaway]

Ron dumped money and time in NH, a state that was highly independent...a rare primary state for Paul. I am not knocking Paul but my hypothesis is that Ron will poll very close to 15% (give or take) in primary states like NY.

IA, NV, MN, CO, ME were caucuses.

FL (7%), SC (13%), MO (12%), and NH (23%) were primaries.

So far if you take the average: 13.75%. Ron's national RCP average: 12.3%. Not that far off for Primaries. This is why MSM says that Ron's support has a ceiling and is not very broad. So far, it is true. If Ron breaks 25% in a primary, I'll be shocked.

Ron will do better in Northern states than deep south states, as well, and look at the states reflected in your numbers.