View Full Version : PPP tweets regarding Washington poll
SCOTUSman
02-17-2012, 07:31 AM
PPP tweet regarding Washington poll on the first night of it:
Santorum up about 9 points on Romney on the first night of our Washington poll...would be big win sandwiched between MI/AZ and Super Tuesday
bluesc
02-17-2012, 07:36 AM
If we have learned anything it's that PPP couldn't poll a caucus state anywhere close to accurately to save their own lives.
SCOTUSman
02-17-2012, 07:38 AM
If we have learned anything it's that PPP couldn't poll a caucus state anywhere close to accurately to save their own lives.
They had Santorum winning Minnesota. THey were the only pollster to poll the post Iowa caucus states.
Dublin4Paul
02-17-2012, 07:39 AM
If we have learned anything it's that PPP couldn't poll a caucus state anywhere close to accurately to save their own lives.
Agreed, caucus states are difficult to poll in general. This shouldn't be too discouraging. We should of course always keep in mind that Ron was being polled in the single digits in Nevada, to end up getting 18 percent.
mosquitobite
02-17-2012, 07:43 AM
We just need good speakers in those caucuses!!!
People need to be sure to explain the numbers. Santorum would have to generate THOUSANDS of voters to beat Romney in a county that will be lucky to pull 500. If they want to help Santorum, they need to make sure that Romney doesn't win Maine's delegates. Someone needs to educate them that voting Santorum doesn't "help" Santorum in the end. But voting for Dr Paul...DOES.
bluesc
02-17-2012, 07:43 AM
They had Santorum winning Minnesota. THey were the only pollster to poll the post Iowa caucus states.
In Colorado they had Santorum at 27%. One day later he won the caucuses with 40%.
Minnesota they had Santoum at 33%, Romney at 24%, Newt at 22%, Paul at 20%
One day later the caucuses looked like: Santorum 44%, Paul 27%, Romney 16%, Newt 10%
Judging by their history, anything can happen when the undecideds rally around someone at the last minute.
digitaldean
02-17-2012, 07:44 AM
I see Romney winning AZ, Santorum winning MI, and Paul winning WA.
PPP loves trolling us. I think it's best to ignore them.
Student Of Paulism
02-17-2012, 07:56 AM
Christ, not even a mention? :rolleyes:
It's really a travesty this turd had to go screw everything up. If CNN hadn't rode his nuts for 2 weeks, he would have been gone over a month ago and Ron would have been the alternative to Newt and Mitt, and with Newt sliding right now, Ron would have been on a great roll and would have been just where we had hoped for him to be. But if there is always someone else between Ron and those two, they are going to take the spotlight from him and be considered the anti-establishment guy, since Ron always get crapped on by the media and looked at by the voters as a last resort to Newt/Mitt.
Kregisen
02-17-2012, 08:08 AM
Agreed, caucus states are difficult to poll in general. This shouldn't be too discouraging. We should of course always keep in mind that Ron was being polled in the single digits in Nevada, to end up getting 18 percent.
False....last poll for him had him at 15%.
ironj221
02-17-2012, 08:11 AM
Ron Paul not even in 2nd? How could this be considering 2008 results? PPP better be wrong!
KingNothing
02-17-2012, 08:14 AM
In Colorado they had Santorum at 27%. One day later he won the caucuses with 40%.
Minnesota they had Santoum at 33%, Romney at 24%, Newt at 22%, Paul at 20%
One day later the caucuses looked like: Santorum 44%, Paul 27%, Romney 16%, Newt 10%
Judging by their history, anything can happen when the undecideds rally around someone at the last minute.
So they probably underestimate Paul and to a greater extent Santorum?
KingNothing
02-17-2012, 08:15 AM
If I were a betting man, I would say that we'll get second in Washington with an outside shot at first.
D.A.S.
02-17-2012, 08:25 AM
One take-away is Ron Paul and the Campaign better campaign hard in Idaho and Washington state... He's finally out there on the stump, but he needs to stay at it to make sure he gets the visibility from the local news and talking to people.
digitaldean
02-17-2012, 08:29 AM
On Saturday they have an entire 6,000 area space rented out in Idaho. If it gets filled it might make the news.
I have to wonder if a large percentage of the people who SAY they are undecided aren't REALLY undecided but just don't want to say who they support and don't want to be impolite and tell the pollsters to go away.
KingNothing
02-17-2012, 08:40 AM
I have to wonder if a large percentage of the people who SAY they are undecided aren't REALLY undecided but just don't want to say who they support and don't want to be impolite and tell the pollsters to go away.
Undecideds have broken towards Santorum so far, right?
I think, historically, they tend to go to whoever has momentum though.
Matthew5
02-17-2012, 08:55 AM
I see Romney winning AZ...
What makes you say that? Because of the McCain endorsement?
digitaldean
02-17-2012, 08:59 AM
What makes you say that? Because of the McCain endorsement?
I saw that because he will get 90% of the Mormon vote like her did in Nevada. I would love to see him win but from the next 3 states it seems WA is more realisitc but I could be wrong. Oh and a poll I saw had Mitt at 50.1% with Newt second at 26.5%.
pauliticalfan
02-17-2012, 09:00 AM
We just need good speakers in those caucuses!!!
People need to be sure to explain the numbers. Santorum would have to generate THOUSANDS of voters to beat Romney in a county that will be lucky to pull 500. If they want to help Santorum, they need to make sure that Romney doesn't win Maine's delegates. Someone needs to educate them that voting Santorum doesn't "help" Santorum in the end. But voting for Dr Paul...DOES.
Um...I'm pretty sure this is a poll of Washington, the state, not Washington County, Maine.
sailingaway
02-17-2012, 09:11 AM
and this is why some of us didn't want them to poll. It may not be that they throw cold water on rising enthusiasm often way underpolling Ron's results and creating a bad narrative, but it sure seems that way.
sailingaway
02-17-2012, 09:13 AM
Undecideds have broken towards Santorum so far, right?
I think, historically, they tend to go to whoever has momentum though.
they broke towards Gingrich in SC etc. Yeah, they tend to go with momentum which is why I don't want PPP raining on Ron's. His numbers went down after Maine and Santorum's Tuesday, but are coming back up, but people are deciding now and polls change those decisions. What good do polls do for the people?
Paul Or Nothing II
02-17-2012, 09:31 AM
We just need good speakers in those caucuses!!!
People need to be sure to explain the numbers. Santorum would have to generate THOUSANDS of voters to beat Romney in a county that will be lucky to pull 500. If they want to help Santorum, they need to make sure that Romney doesn't win Maine's delegates. Someone needs to educate them that voting Santorum doesn't "help" Santorum in the end. But voting for Dr Paul...DOES.
+1
PPP loves trolling us. I think it's best to ignore them.
I agree :D
seawolf
02-17-2012, 09:44 AM
I agree with D.A.S. that Ron needs to stay on the road especially next week with the Presidential Debate being cancelled.
I hope someone in Boise will try and professionally film the rally at the Century Link Arena tomorrow. With an Arena that holds 6,000 that event may rival the Rally for the Republic Event in Minnesota.
It would be great for commercials, you tube, etc.....
sailingaway
02-17-2012, 09:53 AM
I agree with D.A.S. that Ron needs to stay on the road especially next week with the Presidential Debate being cancelled.
I hope someone in Boise will try and professionally film the rally at the Century Link Arena tomorrow. With an Arena that holds 6,000 that event may rival the Rally for the Republic Event in Minnesota.
It would be great for commercials, you tube, etc.....
On two day's notice, I doubt it will be full. I expect they are going to speak to one side of it, or as much as fills up. but it definitely gives the potential for people to go and fill it up!!
but the rally was 12,000 people, however, it was planned for a while.
The Gold Standard
02-17-2012, 09:54 AM
Yeah, we ought to stop asking PPP to poll states where we should do well. They will just use the opportunity to change the narrative.
roversaurus
02-17-2012, 10:34 AM
One take-away is Ron Paul and the Campaign better campaign hard in Idaho and Washington state... He's finally out there on the stump, but he needs to stay at it to make sure he gets the visibility from the local news and talking to people.
Yes,
If the Paul campaign wants to win they should ... try to win. I sent $500 before Iowa, but I'm not going to send more money until they win.
The numbers would be correct in a primary. In '08 we got like 8% in primary in WA (I think) and 21% in caucus. So there is a big difference. I think we'll do exceptionally well if not win it outright.
But its true, even if the poll reflects 'primary' more.. but even in the caucus Santorum will be our biggest challenge. So we'll need the turnout.
sailingaway
02-17-2012, 10:57 AM
Yes,
If the Paul campaign wants to win they should ... try to win. I sent $500 before Iowa, but I'm not going to send more money until they win.
people are saying why aren't they running ads? Well, lack of money is why. How do they win without it?
sailingaway
02-17-2012, 10:58 AM
The numbers would be correct in a primary. In '08 we got like 8% in primary in WA (I think) and 21% in caucus. So there is a big difference. I think we'll do exceptionally well if not win it outright.
But its true, even if the poll reflects 'primary' more.. but even in the caucus Santorum will be our biggest challenge. So we'll need the turnout.
Yeah, Ron beat Romney there last time, too, I'm pretty sure.
but also Super Tuesday came between the caucus and the primary if I remember, and media reported Ron had dropped out right after that, even though all he had done was gone back to do some campaigning in Texas where he was suddenly being primaried by a guy who promised he wouldn't, previously.
Matthew5
02-17-2012, 11:01 AM
Yes,
If the Paul campaign wants to win they should ... try to win. I sent $500 before Iowa, but I'm not going to send more money until they win.
Sorry to hear that. Why don't you consider Maine a win?
opinionatedfool
02-17-2012, 12:02 PM
Let's get ppp to poll non caucus states and especially states without proportional delegates. It would get the other campaigs to focus on those statesinstead of ours.
Keith and stuff
02-17-2012, 12:53 PM
What makes you say that? Because of the McCain endorsement?
It looks like a battle b/t Romney and Santorum in AZ but Romney has the upper hand. If the polls are correct, than Paul may be a non-factor in AZ :(
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/az/arizona_republican_presidential_primary-1622.html
sailingaway
02-17-2012, 12:55 PM
It looks like a battle b/t Romney and Santorum in AZ but Romney has the upper hand. If the polls are correct, than Paul may be a non-factor in AZ :(
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/az/arizona_republican_presidential_primary-1622.html
we still have some time. I think he was written off after Santorum had those three beauty contest wins but now with the discussion of Maine and his delegate strategy people are realizing he is still viable. I am hoping that when Romney starts to vet him it will send some of the voter flotsom that seems to go any which way, over to Ron. For some of the harder states, Ron will need that sort of bump.
AngryCanadian
02-17-2012, 01:36 PM
Santoum winning WA? that wont happen.
PPP is a joke.
69360
02-17-2012, 01:43 PM
Santoum winning WA? that wont happen.
PPP is a joke.
He had a huge crowd at that rally where he looked like the fuhrer. The one were protesters were tazed.
I don't what to make of Santorum he scares me. If any of them were going to be the one to get us all killed, I'd put odds on Santorum.
DerailingDaTrain
02-17-2012, 01:58 PM
Eh I don't really care what they say anymore. If we win then I'm happy but so far most of the people in these states have only proven that people are just as ignorant as they were in 2004 and 2008.
James Madison
02-17-2012, 02:10 PM
Wow. The man who openly lies about serving in the military is the national front-runner?
AngryCanadian
02-17-2012, 02:13 PM
Wow. The man who openly lies about serving in the military is the national front-runner?
Unbelievable isn't it?
James Madison
02-17-2012, 02:19 PM
Unbelievable isn't it?
Could you imagine what the media would do if Ron was the one lying. It'd be the biggest shit storm of the century. But the media has to protect their chosen one, at least for now.
Undecideds have broken towards Santorum so far, right?
I think, historically, they tend to go to whoever has momentum though.
I think, historically, they tend to be used as the scapegoat to explain away voter fraud. And in actuality, a good number of them simply don't advertise who they are going to vote for. But hey, what do I know.
Ekrub
02-17-2012, 02:43 PM
Ron's supporters enthusiasm is so big it's sometimes hard to gauge how we are doing relative to other candidates, but I feel that we have great organization here in WA st. Don't want to get peoples hopes up (Rossi dominated Didier) but I feel like we will do well here. Again, I wasn't on the ground in Iowa, NH, Nevada, or Maine so it's hard to judge. I'm having a few beers right now to take the edge off for the rally in Spokane tonight.
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