CNN/ORC National Primary Poll (Feb. 10 to 13)

[SCOTUSman]

(Previous poll from Jan 11-12)
Santorum 34 (+19)
Romney 32 (-2)
Paul 16 (+1)
Gingrich 15 (-3)

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/02/14/rel2a.pdf

[AlexMerced]

YAY, we outpoll gingrich!

[teacherone]

gallup has us at 8?

this polling season is wonky.

[rp08orbust]

gallup has us at 8?

this polling season is wonky.

I wonder if some of the discrepancies are due to variations in the way pollsters do or do not throw out states that have already voted. Some of Ron's best states are behind us (IA, NH, NV, MN, ME). I wonder which pollsters exclude those states from their surveys.

[sailingaway]

And of course 17 or so primaries are open and others allow same day registration, yet the national polls only count GOP. I think I read that in New Hampshire a full HALF of Ron's support came from first time voters or newly GOP voters.

[Edward]

I'll take it. Santorum has yet to be fully vetted by the media, so he'll come back to us as we see more reports like THIS (http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/14/opinion/coontz-santorum/index.html?hpt=hp_t1).

[EuRa]

Santorum +19? lol, right.

[jrc1589]

(Previous poll from Jan 11-12)
Santorum 34 (+19)
Romney 32 (-2)
Paul 16 (+1)
Gingrich 15 (-3)

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/02/14/rel2a.pdf

Reading the poll results shows N/A for 18-34, 35-49 , All sub-urban, all South 773 land line vs 227 cell phone...so what this should be advertised as is "Southern Suburban National Survey of 50+ y/o American Registered Voters" aka not RP's strongest demographic, yet we beat Newt ;)

[TomtheTinker]

I wish newt was doing better than sant...I feel like we would get more rick supporters if rick dropped out than the other way around.

[SCOTUSman]

Santorum +19? lol, right.

Why? The last national poll was taken after New Hampshire before South Carolina. This one was taken off his Tuesday sweep.

Of course you will just dismiss a poll without facts, except saying "lol, right."

What isn't there to believe. There have been plenty of surges over and over this campaign cycle.

[tennman]

I have a feeling we're in for another Santorum "surge."

[KingNothing]

I have a feeling we're in for another Santorum "surge."

If the recent past is any indication of the near future, his surge will subside by Super Tuesday.

Who the hell knows what will happen then.

[tennman]

We need Paul to win Maine so that we can hit the net hard with the news and get a surge of our own.

[libertybrewcity]

why are people so indecisive?

[D.A.S.]

Well, Santorum is the only candidate that did NOT surge in the fall. We had Michelle Bachmann, followed by Rick Perry, followed by Herman Cain, followed by Gingrich, and then Santorum emerged and surged nationally after doing very well in the midwest.

Remember when we were VERY afraid when Gingrich won South Carolina?

Well, Bachmann, Perry, and Cain all went the way of the Dodo. Newt is tied with us for last place nationally. Santorum is experiencing the same surges we've seen before. I figure when Santorum deflates, Mitt Romney will resume his place at the front of the pack.

[Student Of Paulism]

I have a feeling we're in for another Santorum "surge."

Safe to say we're already in it. Not liking where this is going. There is no doubt now he is definitely the anti-Romney and the alternative to both him and Gingrich, both of which are going downhill, Gingrich the most. To the average voter, he doesnt have the slickness and phoniness of Romney, nor the baggage and corruption Newt has. Save for ME, he is on pace to virtually sweep the month of Feb and can easily win both MI and AZ. If he dominates on Super Tuesday, there wont be any stopping him at that point, no denying that.

[69360]

Good, about what I figured. I thought Ron was going to overtake Newt in polls soon.

The best case scenario for a RP mirac

[D.A.S.]

Safe to say we're already in it. Not liking where this is going. There is no doubt now he is definitely the anti-Romney and the alternative to both him and Gingrich, both of which are going downhill, Gingrich the most. To the average voter, he doesnt have the slickness and phoniness of Romney, nor the baggage and corruption Newt has. Save for ME, he is on pace to virtually sweep the month of Feb and can easily win both MI and AZ. If he dominates on Super Tuesday, there wont be any stopping him at that point, no denying that.

Turn off your TV.

[69360]

why are people so indecisive?

Because this is the weakest field of candidates in modern GOP history.

[Kords21]

When is Santorum going to get vetted? Seems like all I ever hear is positive news about this guy.

[Edward]

Safe to say we're already in it. Not liking where this is going. There is no doubt now he is definitely the anti-Romney and the alternative to both him and Gingrich, both of which are going downhill, Gingrich the most. To the average voter, he doesnt have the slickness and phoniness of Romney, nor the baggage and corruption Newt has. Save for ME, he is on pace to virtually sweep the month of Feb and can easily win both MI and AZ. If he dominates on Super Tuesday, there wont be any stopping him at that point, no denying that.

Well, at least until November 6, 2012. There is very little chance that Santorum will be elected President, and the GOP powers-that-be know that. His time under the microscope will come soon.

[doronster195]

16%???? Isn't that the TIPPING POINT!!!

[KingNothing]

16%???? Isn't that the TIPPING POINT!!!

YES! WE EVEN HAVE GRAPHS TO PROVE IT! GRAPHS! PROOF! IT'S A FACT! TIPPING POINT!


:)

[KingNothing]

why are people so indecisive?



Rule #1 of Humanity: In general, people are stupid.


I mean, to be honest, they don't spend a lot of time thinking about these issues. They pick up on a candidate's momentum, and just roll with it.

[Student Of Paulism]

Turn off your TV.

Uhh, give me a break :rolleyes:

You are simply trying to use recurring themes as a predictor, thinking it will happen over and over. Santorum is strong in way more places than Newt, and again, he isnt any where near as volatile as Newt. He is the 'Mr Nice Guy Catholic' all the sheep are falling in love right now. The party never wanted Romney, and would take him as a last resort if they really had to. At this point in time, i dont see Rick dipping anywhere near as much as Newt did. Newt had way too much of a horrible past, so it made sense people would find out and jump off the bandwagon. But Rick? Yea, he is terrible, but he has no real baggage, and as far as his platform goes, not enough voters are going to care about that. Hell, they sure don't care about the others. Only personal and scandalous things brings a candidate down now, which is pathetic in itself that it takes those things, rather than what the candidate is running on.

If you think Rick is going to crash and burn like Newt did, you are sadly mistaken. Again, he won 3 states in 1 night. He is about to nearly win the whole month of Feb. His donations have boomed, his favorability has boomed. He is easily going to win 1/2 of ST, if not 3/4s of that. If that happens, it's over dude. You honesty think he could be stopped at that point? Not happening.

[Drex]

What did they poll? Only Missouri, Conservative Iowa & Colorado? Oh and only hardcore republicans over the age of 45

[Evangelical_Protestant]

Beast of revelation type stuff in the world today. Scary

[Brett85]

gallup has us at 8?

this polling season is wonky.

Yeah, I noticed that as well. I'm not sure what the discrepancy is.

[sailingaway]

Safe to say we're already in it. Not liking where this is going. There is no doubt now he is definitely the anti-Romney and the alternative to both him and Gingrich, both of which are going downhill, Gingrich the most. To the average voter, he doesnt have the slickness and phoniness of Romney, nor the baggage and corruption Newt has. Save for ME, he is on pace to virtually sweep the month of Feb and can easily win both MI and AZ. If he dominates on Super Tuesday, there wont be any stopping him at that point, no denying that.

Santorum wasn't up high enough long enough to be vetted. His record is truly awful. I'm pretty confident Romney will educate people by super Tuesday

[SCOTUSman]

No. They didn't just poll those groups. I don't get how many times people need this explained every time a poll comes out. They just choose not to release cross tabs on the other groups because they felt that the sample size was too small for those groups.

Paul got 20% with the Under 50 crowd, 10% with the over 50% crowd in the poll.

He got 12% with the 50 to 65 crowd and 8% with the 65+ crowd. Had they only polled 45+ or 50+ he would be at 10-11%....not 16%....

[Student Of Paulism]

Yeah, I noticed that as well. I'm not sure what the discrepancy is.

That 8 is what is mostly likely keeping Ron in last in the RCP AVERAGE. How convenient :rolleyes:

[sailingaway]

Uhh, give me a break :rolleyes:

You are simply trying to use recurring themes as a predictor, thinking it will happen over and over. Santorum is strong in way more places than Newt, and again, he isnt any where near as volatile as Newt. He is the 'Mr Nice Guy Catholic' all the sheep are falling in love right now. The party never wanted Romney, and would take him as a last resort if they really had to. At this point in time, i dont see Rick dipping anywhere near as much as Newt did. Newt had way too much of a horrible past, so it made sense people would find out and jump off the bandwagon. But Rick? Yea, he is terrible, but he has no real baggage, and as far as his platform goes, not enough voters are going to care about that. Hell, they sure don't care about the others. Only personal and scandalous things brings a candidate down now, which is pathetic in itself that it takes those things, rather than what the candidate is running on.

If you think Rick is going to crash and burn like Newt did, you are sadly mistaken. Again, he won 3 states in 1 night. He is about to nearly win the whole month of Feb. His donations have boomed, his favorability has boomed. He is easily going to win 1/2 of ST, if not 3/4s of that. If that happens, it's over dude. You honesty think he could be stopped at that point? Not happening.

I think you like Santorum , is all.

He didn't win MO, it won't be held unti March. And I don't think he had the organization to pick up many delegates

[Student Of Paulism]

Santorum wasn't up high enough long enough to be vetted. His record is truly awful. I'm pretty confident Romney will educate people by super Tuesday

I agree with you, but don't you think it should be THE CAMPAIGNS job to do the vetting? I think depending on Romney or Newt to do it just isn't really a great game plan. The ad on Newt obviously worked. Id like to think based on Rick about to run away with it, that something needs to be done on Ron's part now.

And lol, cmon now, i 'like' Santorum? I am just trying to point out the obvious and face the facts here. His public perception is through the roof right now, and unfortunately , that's what the sheep look at.

[sailingaway]

Sure, but it's expensive

[matt0611]

Santorum +19 to 34% ?

I'm sorry but I can't do anything but shake my head and laugh at how stupid they are at this point.

Really? Santorum? Wow, that will be utter suicide against Obama.

[Xenophage]

This is what I feel about the candidates:

Santorum = Pure Nazi Fascism. Wants to force his morality on Americans and on the world. Total bigot. Full of hate and on a mystic's crusade. Believes he needs to cleanse American society.

Gingrich = Wildly unpredictable, unstable power monger, like a mad scientist that wants to conduct his social experiments from within the White House. Has desired positions of power since he was young man, at least. Egomaniac. Sociopath. Honestly thinks he's the smartest politician around and with his giant forehead could build America into a new Rome as its Ceasar. Probably aspires to be like Julius Ceasar or Alexander the Great.

Romney = Political philanderer, conviction-less, also an egomaniac, but with a go-along-to-get-along mentality. Honestly thinks he's such a good manager that he can fix the political machine and generate prosperity, but willing to do anything to get there and desires the prestige above all else. Complete pragmatist who doesn't understand philosophy and thinks he has no need for it.

Ron Paul = Has no desire for power, wants to liberate all of us!