Four man race going into Super Tuesday - Told ya

[JasonM]

They all doubted me, everyone thought Santorum and Gingrich didn't have the support to make it that far.

They were wrong.

:D

So the big question is, will super tuesday 2012 be a repeat of super tuesday 2008? Or will it be just as muddled as the election so far?

My guess is is that the results in Arizona, Washington and Michigan will play a HUGE part in how the "i wana vote for the winner" lemmings decide to vote on March 6th, in much the same way that the results in Florida 2008 more or less decided the election for voters in favor of McCain. After what happened this past week, Romney NEEDS to have a clean sweep of those states to be the favorite to win Super Tuesday.

And just like we see Rick Santorum getting $3m in donations just for winning Colorado and Minnesota and Missouri, whoever decisively wins Super Tuesday will come out of that race many millions of dollars richer and have what it takes to sow up the rest of the primary states much like McCain did in 2008 (or give Romney a run for his money in any case). The followup contests in the next 30 days going into April 3rd will then either be the final nail in the coffin or a shot in the arm for the other campaigns. Thus, March 6 - April 3 will determine whether or not one or even two candidates suspend their campaign and the media declares a presumptive nominee. If that happens, it's effectively game over for the nomination and time to switch to plan B if 8 February polling data for Virginia is any indication (and don't try to downplay it, 68% Romney to 19% Paul is NOT encouraging).

Don't think Santorum or Gingrich will stay in despite the results just cuz they say they will. If it looks overwhelmingly like there is a clear front runner, then don't underestimate the power of the party establishment to pressure candidates out of the race.

If you want Ron Paul to have a chance, either he starts WINNING a LOT more pledged delegates or hopes no one else gets to that magic 1144 number, which means NO ONE drops out.

[alucard13mmfmj]

all i know is there shouldnt be any more lame ron/romney truces...

[gerryb]

If you want Ron Paul to have a chance, either he starts WINNING a LOT more pledged delegates or hopes no one else gets to that magic 1144 number, which means NO ONE drops out.

After Super Tuesday, 605 delegates will be pledged for a candidate. It's not until the end of March that 1144 have been contested.

Hopefully Gingrich and Santorum's ego's are large enough to keep them in the race. I think ST will be split enough to do it.

[JasonM]

What truce?

The theory was that we're trying to go for the "Not-Romney" vote by damaging the competition for that vote, and then turn it into a 2-man race. Then theoretically they would rally around Paul as the last "Not-Romney" vote. Then again, there is a large segment of the "not-Romney" vote that will end up either voting for Romney over Paul anyways, or simply stay home.

So we need Santorum and Gingrich to steal "winner-take-all" states that might otherwise go to Romney.

[affa]

all i know is there shouldnt be any more lame ron/romney truces...

what truce? there was a brief splurge of 'articles' on a mythical truce that quoted anonymous sources. It was disinformation intended to make us question Ron Paul. I don't buy it for a second, especially since the core concept - that Ron Paul never attacked Romney is patently false.

Other than that, it makes sense for them not to go nuclear on each other. Ron Paul is working for Santorum and Gingrich voters, and Romney needs to kiss Ron's supporters asses (that's us).

No 'truce' needed when it happens naturally due to dovetailing strategy.

[JasonM]

After Super Tuesday, 605 delegates will be pledged for a candidate. It's not until the end of March that 1144 have been contested.

Hopefully Gingrich and Santorum's ego's are large enough to keep them in the race. I think ST will be split enough to do it.

Well like I said, how ST turns out depends on how the previous primaries occur. If Romney makes a clean sweep of all 3 of these states by comfortable margins, then the Headlines will be fresh with news of Romney winning these races and "regaining his momentum" (media LOVES comeback stories, remember?). Just like the CNN poll showing a fake momentum surge that created the real surge for Santorum in IA, people will look at these contests.

If someone other than Romney wins these 3 contests, then the media will be awash with stories of a new front-runner.

Remember, Rudy Giuliani was the front runner for ages in 2008, and then McCain beat him in Florida (cuz that was the only state he was campaigning in), and then ran away with it.

This time around, it won't be so bad, but over 500 delegates (from 28 Feb to 6 March) is a big chunk to walk away with. If Romney scores at least 2/3 of that, it will fuel future wins in the followup contests. It looks overwhelming when you have over 450 delegates while your competitors share the remaining 155 (esp when our guy is dead last in pledged delegate counts).

[gerryb]

For sure.. But there is only one winner take all(AZ) up till March 6th.. Everything else is proportional, at least down to the CD level. So we're looking for a split both by state and by region of each state.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

A strategy that relies on your competition is a bad one... but it's what we've got at this point.

[cindy25]

For sure.. But there is only one winner take all(AZ) up till March 6th.. Everything else is proportional, at least down to the CD level. So we're looking for a split both by state and by region of each state.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

A strategy that relies on your competition is a bad one... but it's what we've got at this point.

Romney using the same strategy ; he can't get over 50% anywhere

[gerryb]

Romney using the same strategy ; he can't get over 50% anywhere

And we have Karl Rove and company looking to have a brokered convention...

Hopefully they have mis-calculated our strength in all the primary states that select their delegates via convention instead of via ballot. If so, we could have a landslide on the 2nd ballot.

[bluesc]

And we have Karl Rove and company looking to have a brokered convention...

Hopefully they have mis-calculated our strength in all the primary states that select their delegates via convention instead of via ballot. If so, we could have a landslide on the 2nd ballot.

Which primaries select delegates via convention? I want to calculate the total + total from all caucus states.

[JasonM]

Romney using the same strategy ; he can't get over 50% anywhere

It's not that Romney (or Paul) are using any kind of strategy relying on competition. It's rather the competition that's benefiting the candidates in different ways. Romney benefits because there is not a single candidate for "conservatives" to rally around. Paul (or any other non-candidate or can become a candidate late in the race) benefits because the other three are splitting up the neocon vote fairly well.

If Romney can't nail conservatives cuz he's a Massachusetts Moderate, then Paul can't nail it because Republicans are still mostly brainwashed to think that our national security depends on having 900 bases around the world to keep evil nations like Russia, China, North Korea and Iran at bay and hunt down the evil terrorist villains in their home towns.

[JasonM]

And we have Karl Rove and company looking to have a brokered convention...

Hopefully they have mis-calculated our strength in all the primary states that select their delegates via convention instead of via ballot. If so, we could have a landslide on the 2nd ballot.

Karl Rove said in a MSM interview that the process is purposely rigged against a brokered convention scenario and that it is a very remote possibility. Dunno where you got that info from.

[cindy25]

Rove is correct that the process is rigged, and normally it works out that way; in a two person race one has to have a majority no matter how close (Ford, Reagan 1976) (Obama Hillary 2008)

but the process did not take into account the superpacs keeping Gingrich and Santorum in the race, or the Libertarian grassroots keeping Paul in the race

[JasonM]

Rove is correct that the process is rigged, and normally it works out that way; in a two person race one has to have a majority no matter how close (Ford, Reagan 1976) (Obama Hillary 2008)

but the process did not take into account the superpacs keeping Gingrich and Santorum in the race, or the Libertarian grassroots keeping Paul in the race

Neither did we. Lots of folks thought it would be a 2 or 3 man race after Florida.

[bluesc]

Neither did we. Lots of folks thought it would be a 2 or 3 man race after Florida.

Yes, we get it, you were right. What do you want, a fucking medal?

[Constitutional Paulicy]

Yes, we get it, you were right. What do you want, a fucking medal?

https://encrypted-tbn2.google.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSDa9x18OAEPjL7iTVXKnBmEJY6cH8Di uzvzzr6yuvExtdhR0-Quw

[skytoucher]

I made a similar argument on this thread: There's no way that anyone else will drop out. It's a 4 man race until the end. (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?352949-There-s-no-way-that-anyone-else-will-drop-out.-It-s-a-4-man-race-to-the-end.)

[JasonM]

That made me LOL. :D

But seriously, I don't know whether to consider these Super PACs a blessing or a curse. I mean we got at least two of them working on behalf of Ron Paul, one of which blew a wad of cash in Florida. Not all folks who make 100k+ a year are against Ron Paul, we might have a few more wealthy folks in our ranks than we think.

[newbitech]

What truce?

The theory was that we're trying to go for the "Not-Romney" vote by damaging the competition for that vote, and then turn it into a 2-man race. Then theoretically they would rally around Paul as the last "Not-Romney" vote. Then again, there is a large segment of the "not-Romney" vote that will end up either voting for Romney over Paul anyways, or simply stay home.

So we need Santorum and Gingrich to steal "winner-take-all" states that might otherwise go to Romney.

Right because we aren't really interested in winning the popular vote required to "steal" these states for ourselves... geeezz....

[bluesc]

Right because we aren't really interested in winning the popular vote required to "steal" these states for ourselves... geeezz....

It's impossible without a lot of money. Demonstrated in your lovely state of Florida that was completely ignored. I guess you're still butthurt over that.

All you do is come here to whine and constantly repeat yourself. No one important is listening.

[newbitech]

It's impossible without a lot of money. Demonstrated in your lovely state of Florida that was completely ignored. I guess you're still butthurt over that.

All you do is come here to whine and constantly repeat yourself. No one important is listening.

What's the matter? Afraid of winning without tricks or games?

[69360]

Gingrich and Santorum will drop out at some point after supertuesday when the party establishment tells them to in exchange for political concessions like VP, a cabinet position or presumed frontrunner in the next race. Just like Romney did last time and just like Hillary did last time. All the delegates Santorum and Gingrich won will go to Romney. That's how the game is played, like it or not.

[bluesc]

What's the matter? Afraid of winning without tricks or games?

Politics is all about tricks and games. Romney is playing tricks and games all the time. He has an unlimited line of credit because he is going to maintain the status quo. Standing on principle makes things tough. Stop living in a noble fairy tale.

[Gray Fullbuster]

BROKEN CONVENTION YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH



http://ppgnow.com/templates/desktop/images/cartoons/021012_Brokered_Convention.jpg

[bluesc]

Gingrich and Santorum will drop out at some point after supertuesday when the party establishment tells them to in exchange for political concessions like VP, a cabinet position or presumed frontrunner in the next race.

Not if they see a path to the convention. You get more handed to you in exchange for your delegates in a brokered convention than you do on the campaign trail.


Just like Romney did last time and just like Hillary did last time.

The race was already over by the time he dropped out. He had no leverage.


All the delegates Santorum and Gingrich won will go to Romney. That's how the game is played, like it or not.

They don't vet every delegate they win. In many primary states, delegates are selected at a convention. That's when Paul's campaign has a Paulite stand as a delegate for other candidates.

[newbitech]

Politics is all about tricks and games. Romney is playing tricks and games all the time. He has an unlimited line of credit because he is going to maintain the status quo. Standing on principle makes things tough. Stop living in a noble fairy tale.


first off, you don't get to tell me how to live from your couch on the internet. second off, it's pretty obvious that you are too lazy to do your own research choosing instead to waste your time trying to respond to and have a conversation with everyone at Ron Paul Forums. Finally, the attitude you are displaying and advocating (if you can't beat them, join them) in anathema to what I have observed in this movement for the last 4+ years.

I really don't care for your opinions, but I am not going to tell you to stop posting, change your life, or attempt to insult you with name calling. I'll just do what Ron Paul supporters do and hit you with the facts. How you respond to those facts is who you are.

[bluesc]

first off, you don't get to tell me how to live from your couch on the internet. second off, it's pretty obvious that you are too lazy to do your own research choosing instead to waste your time trying to respond to and have a conversation with everyone at Ron Paul Forums. Finally, the attitude you are displaying and advocating (if you can't beat them, join them) in anathema to what I have observed in this movement for the last 4+ years.

I really don't care for your opinions, but I am not going to tell you to stop posting, change your life, or attempt to insult you with name calling. I'll just do what Ron Paul supporters do and hit you with the facts. How you respond to those facts is who you are.

I never suggested "joining them".

I have probably had a conversation with 10 people on here in the last month.

I'm sitting on a bench in my back yard, not a couch.

You haven't "hit" me with any "facts" in this thread.

[69360]

Not if they see a path to the convention. You get more handed to you in exchange for your delegates in a brokered convention than you do on the campaign trail.



The race was already over by the time he dropped out. He had no leverage.



They don't vet every delegate they win. In many primary states, delegates are selected at a convention. That's when Paul's campaign has a Paulite stand as a delegate for other candidates.

You really think the party establishment will let this go to a contested convention? You're kidding yourself. A deal will be cut to prevent it. Santorum is younger and can run again, he'd cut a deal for presumed front runner next time. Gingrich is power hungry and could be appeased with a position short of president. They were both lobbyists and would be happy with a behind the scenes position of power that gave them wealth and influence. You are thinking like these people actually care about the country, they don't they care about themselves and their agenda.

[bluesc]

You really think the party establishment will let this go to a contested convention? You're kidding yourself. A deal will be cut to prevent it. Santorum is younger and can run again, he'd cut a deal for presumed front runner next time. Gingrich is power hungry and could be appeased with a position short of president. They were both lobbyists and would be happy with a behind the scenes position of power that gave them wealth and influence. You are thinking like these people actually care about the country, they don't they care about themselves and their agenda.

They care about power and their agenda. Correct. They want nothing more than to be President, and if there is a path to a brokered convention, they will take it.

You think they are all working together and will roll over even when there is an option not to? Santorum and Gingrich aren't giving up until Romney has it in the bag. Newt has almost as many allies in the establishment as Mitt does. Believe it or not, there are opposing factions in the establishment and they don't all work in harmony.

[JasonM]

Right because we aren't really interested in winning the popular vote required to "steal" these states for ourselves... geeezz....

No, because the polls show that although we have substantially grown in our numbers, we aren't there yet as a movement. The neocon vote is still over 60% of primary/caucus voters, higher in places like Florida where the baby boomers like to retire or in SC which has the foreign policy hawks and "social conservatives" live.

Do you honestly think we have a chance at Virginia when one of the polls on RCP (8 Feb) show Romney with nearly 70% of the vote?

So unless we are the frontrunner, a brokered convention is the best scenario for us.

[newbitech]

I never suggested "joining them".

I have probably had a conversation with 10 people on here in the last month.

I'm sitting on a bench in my back yard, not a couch.

You haven't "hit" me with any "facts" in this thread.

Yeah you did. So you were only marginally successful, not surprised. Bench, couch w/e. It is a fact that I am hear, you responded to me, I'd say you were hit with a fact. Since you were too busy conjuring some image of what I do with my life instead of focusing on the actual point I was making I will make it again.

There is no reason, absolutely NONE at all to concede primary states to the other 3 THREE candidates. That is NOT a winning idea. To expand on that, it is a FACT that Ron Paul cannot win the nomination WITHOUT winning at least 1 ONE (probably 6) WTA states.

I know you think the message is SOOO unpopular that winning a majority of votes is impossible. I think you are wrong.

[newbitech]

No, because the polls show that although we have substantially grown in our numbers, we aren't there yet as a movement. The neocon vote is still over 60% of primary/caucus voters, higher in places like Florida where the baby boomers like to retire or in SC which has the foreign policy hawks and "social conservatives" live.

Do you honestly think we have a chance at Virginia when one of the polls on RCP (8 Feb) show Romney with nearly 70% of the vote?

So unless we are the frontrunner, a brokered convention is the best scenario for us.

I think we can win a popular vote, we just have to make it our goal. Damn the polls.

[69360]

They care about power and their agenda. Correct. They want nothing more than to be President, and if there is a path to a brokered convention, they will take it.

You think they are all working together and will roll over even when there is an option not to? Santorum and Gingrich aren't giving up until Romney has it in the bag. Newt has almost as many allies in the establishment as Mitt does. Believe it or not, there are opposing factions in the establishment and they don't all work in harmony.

Hinging all your hope on a theoretical long shot contested convention is going to lead you to nothing but disappointment. Even more so if you think Ron would win at this theoretical brokered convention.

[bluesc]

Yeah you did. So you were only marginally successful, not surprised. Bench, couch w/e. It is a fact that I am hear, you responded to me, I'd say you were hit with a fact. Since you were too busy conjuring some image of what I do with my life instead of focusing on the actual point I was making I will make it again.

There is no reason, absolutely NONE at all to concede primary states to the other 3 THREE candidates. That is NOT a winning idea. To expand on that, it is a FACT that Ron Paul cannot win the nomination WITHOUT winning at least 1 ONE (probably 6) WTA states.

I know you think the message is SOOO unpopular that winning a majority of votes is impossible. I think you are wrong.

You didn't hit me with any facts. I didn't suggest joining them. I responded because I like engaging people.

Actually, what you were responding to was this:


So we need Santorum and Gingrich to steal "winner-take-all" states that might otherwise go to Romney.

And you responded:


Right because we aren't really interested in winning the popular vote required to "steal" these states for ourselves... geeezz....

And that somehow turned into you implying I said ignore all primary states because I agreed with the person you were responding to.


If a state is a relatively safe state for Romney, it's going to take a huge war chest to compete in that state. Ron doesn't have that kind of money.

For the... Tenth time? In the last 24 hours, I never claimed that Ron can win the nomination without winning any WTA states. For some reason, the negative nancy's always assume that I am implying that I am, even when I remind them repeatedly that I am not.

I don't think it's unpopular, I just think money talks, and in a state being contested by two candidates with war chests comparable to the 90s general election war chests, Paul won't be able to compete in those states. Luckily, there aren't many of them.

[JasonM]

I think we can win a popular vote, we just have to make it our goal. Damn the polls.

What do you think we've been doing the last 4 years? What do you think his campaign is doing? What do you think everyone's doing now? We nearly did it in Iowa and Maine, and doubled or tripled our vote totals in many states. I'm not saying "give up" just because a poll 1 month away shows a huge lead for Romney.

I'm just saying, if Gingrich and Santorum drop out, it's probably because Romney starts going on a winning streak beginning with ST and he doesn't stop winning in much the same way McCain didn't stop winning after Romney and Huck dropped out. And it won't help matters if Ron Paul is last in pledged delegate counts when/if the Santorum/Gingrich dropouts happen.

Right now they are fighting us, but we still have to "win" for Ghandi's saying to hold true for us, yea? That can't happen if we don't win states or (if we dont win even a single state) things dont go to a brokered convention.

[slamhead]

If after super Tuesday it is apparent there will be a brokered convention no one will drop out. If Romney wins a great number of states and is crowned the apparent winner Newt will drop out at that time. I think Santorums ego will keep him in if he is able to capture any number of primaries. In either scenario I see a brokered convention. In the event Romney sweeps the primaries and Santorum and Newt drop out I would hope that Paul follows through with the delegate plans and throws a wrench in the convention when the unbound delegates vote for Paul.

[Okie RP fan]

Would be great for Paul and Romney to take most of Super Tuesday.

[JasonM]

Would be great for Paul and Romney to take most of Super Tuesday.

Aye, with you there. Hopefully we can take a pretty sizable chunk in each of these contests. Big question is, one month out, how well are we doing in the ST and remaining pre-ST states, polling wise?