CTRattlesnake
02-11-2012, 10:04 PM
Like many of you, I was devastated by our slim defeat in Maine, and quite frankly, I began wondering if the campaign was over. However, I've taken a step back and realized a few things. The campaign is not over, but we NEED to win at least 1 contest before Super Tuesday, that much is obvious... but do we really know why?
Lets look at a breakdown of current GOP voters in terms of Ron Paul
From strongest supporters to weakest supporters
10%---die hard, NOBP people
10%--soft supporters (ranges from 0-10% nationally)
25%-- Like RP's ideas, but dont think he is a viable candidate
30%---dont like RP's policies, but are not as spiteful as the below
25%--- Mark Levin types, will never vote for RP, hate his presence in the GOP
The underlined group is why we desperately need to win. Lets be completely honest with ourselves here, we cannot win the nomination with 15% of support from GOP members. Its not going to happen. So, what we need to do is convert the 20-30% of the GOP that agrees with RP on most things, and is willing to vote for him, but simply thinks he cant win and is not a serious candidate, so they through their support behind the flavor of the month, or whoever the media tells them can win. I cannot tell you how many times i've heard people say that they think Ron Paul is the most principled, most trustworthy candidate, but cant vote for him because they dont think he can win. This of course, will change if we win a state.
Winning is the big challenge. Not only do we need to win a state, but we need to do it soon, before March 6th. After super tuesday, the caucus states begin to end, as will the proportional delegate allocations. In other words, if we dont start winning, the whole 'delegate' strategy goes out the window, because theres no way we can get delegates without winning, and as I said before, we cant win with only 15% of the GOP. So we need to win to boost our support.
Maine was our best shot so far. A small, independent state where we could get crossover support as well and its frustrating that we fell just short. However unlike I had originally thought, Maine was not the be-all end-all, Maine was not our last chance. We have 1 more chance to convert the 20-30% and win some states on Super Tuesday and propel our campaign into the primary/winner take all contests.
My fellow Ron Paul supporters, Washington State is our last stand. That will be our Thermopylae. In 08', Paul won several counties, and lost to McCain by 500 votes, carrying 21% of the low turnout, open caucus, easily one of our best states 4 years ago.
If we cant do it in Washington, we cant do it anywhere. Its even got a leg up on Maine, because unlike Maine, Romney did not dominate the Washington caucus in 08.
Whats more, Washington is 3 days before Super Tuesday! Its like a perfectly gift wrapped opportunity from the GOP to us. Imagine: Paul wins the caucus, and thats fresh on the minds of people 3 days later as Paul goes on to win Alaska, Idaho, and North Dakota, further solidifying his support and proving that he is viable candidate. Then, the 25% begin gravitating towards us and we can move forward from there.
If we dont win, we are doomed to play a minor role for the rest of the nomination process and expect to bring 300 or so delegates to the convention.
So essentially:
-Running out of caucus/proportional states, delegate strategy wont work for long
-Need to win to convert 20-30% of people who like Paul but dont think he is a viable candidate/ can win
-Washington presents perfect opportunity (Paul lost by 500 votes in 08, 21% of vote, Romney did not win, open caucus)
-3 days before super tuesday, could launch us to multiple wins down the road
- If we dont win before Super tuesday, we will play a small role throughout the final months of the primaries
Lets look at a breakdown of current GOP voters in terms of Ron Paul
From strongest supporters to weakest supporters
10%---die hard, NOBP people
10%--soft supporters (ranges from 0-10% nationally)
25%-- Like RP's ideas, but dont think he is a viable candidate
30%---dont like RP's policies, but are not as spiteful as the below
25%--- Mark Levin types, will never vote for RP, hate his presence in the GOP
The underlined group is why we desperately need to win. Lets be completely honest with ourselves here, we cannot win the nomination with 15% of support from GOP members. Its not going to happen. So, what we need to do is convert the 20-30% of the GOP that agrees with RP on most things, and is willing to vote for him, but simply thinks he cant win and is not a serious candidate, so they through their support behind the flavor of the month, or whoever the media tells them can win. I cannot tell you how many times i've heard people say that they think Ron Paul is the most principled, most trustworthy candidate, but cant vote for him because they dont think he can win. This of course, will change if we win a state.
Winning is the big challenge. Not only do we need to win a state, but we need to do it soon, before March 6th. After super tuesday, the caucus states begin to end, as will the proportional delegate allocations. In other words, if we dont start winning, the whole 'delegate' strategy goes out the window, because theres no way we can get delegates without winning, and as I said before, we cant win with only 15% of the GOP. So we need to win to boost our support.
Maine was our best shot so far. A small, independent state where we could get crossover support as well and its frustrating that we fell just short. However unlike I had originally thought, Maine was not the be-all end-all, Maine was not our last chance. We have 1 more chance to convert the 20-30% and win some states on Super Tuesday and propel our campaign into the primary/winner take all contests.
My fellow Ron Paul supporters, Washington State is our last stand. That will be our Thermopylae. In 08', Paul won several counties, and lost to McCain by 500 votes, carrying 21% of the low turnout, open caucus, easily one of our best states 4 years ago.
If we cant do it in Washington, we cant do it anywhere. Its even got a leg up on Maine, because unlike Maine, Romney did not dominate the Washington caucus in 08.
Whats more, Washington is 3 days before Super Tuesday! Its like a perfectly gift wrapped opportunity from the GOP to us. Imagine: Paul wins the caucus, and thats fresh on the minds of people 3 days later as Paul goes on to win Alaska, Idaho, and North Dakota, further solidifying his support and proving that he is viable candidate. Then, the 25% begin gravitating towards us and we can move forward from there.
If we dont win, we are doomed to play a minor role for the rest of the nomination process and expect to bring 300 or so delegates to the convention.
So essentially:
-Running out of caucus/proportional states, delegate strategy wont work for long
-Need to win to convert 20-30% of people who like Paul but dont think he is a viable candidate/ can win
-Washington presents perfect opportunity (Paul lost by 500 votes in 08, 21% of vote, Romney did not win, open caucus)
-3 days before super tuesday, could launch us to multiple wins down the road
- If we dont win before Super tuesday, we will play a small role throughout the final months of the primaries