Fundraising% vs votes % for Dr. Paul by state

[fez2008]

Fundraising percentage of Dr. Paul as a percent of fundraising by all candidates<tab> actual vote %:
IA 32 21 <--
NH 27 23
SC 16 13
FL 10 7
NV 22 19
MN 24 27
MO 11 12
CO 16 12
ME 36 35
MI 12 12
AZ 15 8
WA 28 26
WY 21 21
ND 43 28 <--
AK 41 24 <--
VT 31 25
OH 18 9
ID 15 18
OK 11 10
TN 11 9
VA 11 40
GA 9 7
MA 6 10
KS 24 13



Maps (credit: rpwi for pointing me to the great service http://imagecharteditor.appspot.com/ ) Greener is better

Actual vote %:
http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chf=a,s,000000C3|bg,s,FFFFFF&chs=440x220&cht=t&chco=FFFFFF,FF0000,00FF00,000000,000000,000000&chld=AKAZCOFLGAIAIDKSMAMEMIMNMONDNHNVOHOKSCTNVAVTW AWY&chd=t:24,8,12,7,7,21,18,13,10,35,12,27,12,28,23,19 ,9,10,13,9,40,25,25,21&chtm=usa

Fundraising % of all candidates:
http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chf=a,s,000000C3|bg,s,FFFFFF&chs=440x220&cht=t&chco=FFFFFF,FF0000,00FF00,000000,000000,000000&chld=AKALARAZCACOCTDEFLGAHIIAIDILINKSKYLAMAMDMEMIM NMOMSMTNCNDNENHNJNMNVNYOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVAVTWAW IWVWY&chd=t:41,22,26,15,14,17,7,36,10,9,35,32,31,11,25,2 4,17,11,6,14,36,12,24,11,21,37,25,43,15,27,10,26,2 2,7,18,11,26,16,19,16,9,11,9,4,11,31,28,27,15,21&chtm=usa


These are the fundraising % numbers for all states in ascending order:
ND 43
AK 41
MT 37
DE 36
ME 36
HI 35
IA 32
VT 31
WA 28
NH 27
WI 27
AR 26
NM 26
OR 26
IN 25
NC 25
KS 24
MN 24
AL 22
NV 22
MS 21
WY 21
RI 19
OH 18
CO 17
KY 17
PA 16
SC 16
AZ 15
ID 15
NE 15
WV 15
CA 14
MD 14
MI 12
IL 11
LA 11
MO 11
OK 11
TN 11
VA 11
FL 10
NJ 10
GA 9
SD 9
TX 9
CT 7
NY 7
MA 6
DC 4
UT 4
source for funds through Q4: http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2012/02/ron_paul_outraising_mitt_romne.php

[nano1895]

As you can see we were on our way to getting 30% in IA but the Santorum Surge took it all away.

[1836]

This is a good thread. I think it's an interesting correlation and it certainly bodes well for us in some of thetse upcoming states.

[fez2008]

updated with MI and AZ numbers

[eleganz]

I love it when people think outside the box and post these stats for us.


WE CAN WIN WASHINGTON.


WWW.PHONE.RONPAUL2012.COM


GO!

[PolicyReader]

fez2008 thanks for your work here +rep

alright everyone lets turn those donors into voters here's how Phone From Home ("http://phone.ronpaul2012.com/v/faq.php)

[Aratus]

100,ooo thanx!!!

[vechorik]

Mississippi: poorest state in the union as far as income, ranking 50th.
When it comes to Ron Paul donations, they rank 21st.

[A. Havnes]

+rep Donate to Super Tuesday!

[cheapseats]

Fundraising percentage of Dr. Paul as a percent of fundraising by all candidates<tab> actual vote %:
IA 32 21
NH 27 23
SC 16 13
FL 10 7
NV 22 19
MN 24 27
MO 11 12
CO 16 12
ME 36 35
MI 12 12
AZ 15 8


These are the fundraising % numbers for all states in ascending order:
ND 43
AK 41
MT 37
DE 36
ME 36
HI 35
IA 32
VT 31
WA 28
NH 27
WI 27
AR 26
NM 26
OR 26
IN 25
NC 25
KS 24
MN 24
AL 22
NV 22
MS 21
WY 21
RI 19
OH 18
CO 17
KY 17
PA 16
SC 16
AZ 15
ID 15
NE 15
WV 15
CA 14
MD 14
MI 12
IL 11
LA 11
MO 11
OK 11
TN 11
VA 11
FL 10
NJ 10
GA 9
SD 9
TX 9
CT 7
NY 7
MA 6
DC 4
UT 4
source for funds through Q4: http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2012/02/ron_paul_outraising_mitt_romne.php

This is super interesting.




I love it when people think outside the box and post these stats for us.


WE CAN WIN WASHINGTON.


This is POSITIVE THINKING. There's nuthin' wrong with that, per se, and I have LOTS of regard for Washington. More regard than affection, NOT THAT MY FEELINGS ARE THE BEST DECIDER OF MY ACTIONS.

But to infer from this innovative bit of analysis that Washington constitutes a PROBABLE WIN when Ron Paul very much NEEDS a win is, I think, to misread it.

THIS analysis suggests that MONTANA and ALASKA are much closer to a tipping point.

That said, I do believe that the PACIFIC NORTHWEST has motive, means and opportunity to COALESCE as a Voting Bloc that commands MUCH greater attention and influence than it presently does.

[PolicyReader]

bump for Phone From Home ("http://phone.ronpaul2012.com/v/faq.php) GOTV effort

[fez2008]

No events in the 2 best states!?

[BUSHLIED]

Fundraising percentage of Dr. Paul as a percent of fundraising by all candidates<tab> actual vote %:
IA 32 21
NH 27 23
SC 16 13
FL 10 7
NV 22 19
MN 24 27
MO 11 12
CO 16 12
ME 36 35
MI 12 12
AZ 15 8


Are these numbers corrected to include the candidates that were in the race at the time?

You had Bachman, Huntsman, and Perry in the race during the fourth quarter, was Ron percentage 32% among the 7 candidates.

NEVERMIND, I did the math myself. The numbers are corrected and the correlation is significant and large at .9.

[BUSHLIED]

I would be curious if you could now then look at the fundraising gains from 2008 to 2012 to see if the correlation holds for the gain in 2012.

So if Ron raised a total of 11% more in 2012 in IA..etc...

[fez2008]

I would be curious if you could now then look at the fundraising gains from 2008 to 2012 to see if the correlation holds for the gain in 2012.

So if Ron raised a total of 11% more in 2012 in IA..etc...

If we can get the raw numbers from somewhere, it will be interesting... This page has the percentage among all candidates (D and R):
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Paul-2008-mon.pdf&page=1

[J_White]

hmm
so the best chances are in ND and AK (above 40%) and maybe in WA (28), VT(31) and KS (24).
we could do good in WA if we push hard.
one day left guys, do whatever u can.

[fez2008]

Updated with WA numbers Fundraising% 28 Actual vote%: 26

[Keith and stuff]

Updated with WA numbers Fundraising% 28 Actual vote%: 26

Excellent work. There is also WY.

[fez2008]

Excellent work. There is also WY.

Thanks for the pointer. Did not know that WY results are out! Updated original post.

[1836]

This correlation is absolutely unbelievable.

A hell of a lot of high-handed analysis from the realms of political science would tell you that while there might be a rough correlation, there shouldn't be anything this close, and yet, here it is.

It's really something to keep an eye on. Wow.

[Agorism]

How we doing in Montana?

[fez2008]

This correlation is absolutely unbelievable.

A hell of a lot of high-handed analysis from the realms of political science would tell you that while there might be a rough correlation, there shouldn't be anything this close, and yet, here it is.

It's really something to keep an eye on. Wow.

I cannot understand why there are no ND stops. May be they already think it in the bag or .. I just don't understand it. Even John King on CNN said Romney camp thinks it will come second to Dr. Paul in ND.

There are 4 stops in ID, but it is 23% LDS... simple math tells its nearly impossible to beat Romney there. I hope they can pull it off in Idaho, with total 7 stops that will be made there by Mar 5th

[GHoeberX]

Fundraising percentage of Dr. Paul as a percent of fundraising by all candidates<tab> actual vote %:
IA 32 21
NH 27 23
SC 16 13
FL 10 7
NV 22 19
MN 24 27
MO 11 12
CO 16 12
ME 36 35
MI 12 12
AZ 15 8
WA 28 26
WY 21 21

These are the fundraising % numbers for all states in ascending order:
ND 43
AK 41
MT 37
DE 36
ME 36
HI 35
IA 32
VT 31
WA 28
NH 27
WI 27
AR 26
NM 26
OR 26
IN 25
NC 25
KS 24
MN 24
AL 22
NV 22
MS 21
WY 21
RI 19
OH 18
CO 17
KY 17
PA 16
SC 16
AZ 15
ID 15
NE 15
WV 15
CA 14
MD 14
MI 12
IL 11
LA 11
MO 11
OK 11
TN 11
VA 11
FL 10
NJ 10
GA 9
SD 9
TX 9
CT 7
NY 7
MA 6
DC 4
UT 4
source for funds through Q4: http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2012/02/ron_paul_outraising_mitt_romne.php

Great stuff!

[da32130]

I cannot understand why there are no ND stops. May be they already think it in the bag or .. I just don't understand it. Even John King on CNN said Romney camp thinks it will come second to Dr. Paul in ND.

There are 4 stops in ID, but it is 23% LDS... simple math tells its nearly impossible to beat Romney there. I hope they can pull it off in Idaho, with total 7 stops that will be made there by Mar 5th

I guess it is the difference between a sure thing win and setting up multiple solid finishes.

If things go well this could be the result:

Paul
ND
AK
VT

Newt
GA

Sant
TN
OK

Mitt
OH
VA (Paul 2nd)
MA
ID (Paul 2nd)

That would give us some momentum heading into the winner take all states. Make it hard for Romney to secure the nomination. And definately help with Paul delegate turnout.

[andrew1229649]

We are averaging about 3% under fundraising percentage. I would like to know what the other candidates are averaging based on fundraising percentage...if they are doing about the same we could crunch the numbers and go ahead and project wins and places. OP where did you get the numbers from?

[rpwi]

Here is a google graph of how much each state has donated has a % of their total population:

http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chf=bg,s,EAF7FE&chs=440x220&cht=t&chco=FFFFFF,FF0000,00FF00,00FF00&chld=AKALARAZCACOCTDCDEFLGAHIIAIDILINKSKYLAMAMDMEM IMNMOMSMTNCNDNENHNJNMNVNYOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVAVTW AWIWVWY&chd=t:41,22,26,15,14,17,7,4,36,10,9,35,32,15,11,25 ,24,17,11,6,14,36,12,24,11,21,37,25,43,15,27,10,26 ,22,7,18,11,26,16,19,16,9,11,9,4,11,31,28,27,15,21&chtm=usa

Bright green is best...bright red is worst.

I posted more interesting maps at this thread if anybody is interested:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?361472-Cool-google-maps-of-2008-results-2012-fundraisers-by-state

[Warmon]

Here is a google graph of how much each state has donated has a % of their total population:
I posted more interesting maps at this thread if anybody is interested:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?361472-Cool-google-maps-of-2008-results-2012-fundraisers-by-state

Man, this is some good stuff!! +rep for your hard work!

[fez2008]

Here is a google graph of how much each state has donated has a % of their total population:

http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chf=bg,s,EAF7FE&chs=440x220&cht=t&chco=FFFFFF,FF0000,00FF00,00FF00&chld=AKALARAZCACOCTDCDEFLGAHIIAIDILINKSKYLAMAMDMEM IMNMOMSMTNCNDNENHNJNMNVNYOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVAVTW AWIWVWY&chd=t:41,22,26,15,14,17,7,4,36,10,9,35,32,15,11,25 ,24,17,11,6,14,36,12,24,11,21,37,25,43,15,27,10,26 ,22,7,18,11,26,16,19,16,9,11,9,4,11,31,28,27,15,21&chtm=usa

Bright green is best...bright red is worst.

I posted more interesting maps at this thread if anybody is interested:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?361472-Cool-google-maps-of-2008-results-2012-fundraisers-by-state

This is wonderful rpwi. Edited the original post to include the maps with the numbers. We should probably merge these two threads.

[fez2008]

We are averaging about 3% under fundraising percentage. I would like to know what the other candidates are averaging based on fundraising percentage...if they are doing about the same we could crunch the numbers and go ahead and project wins and places. OP where did you get the numbers from?

andrew, source included at end of original post. Problems with using this method for other candidates:
1) Their support is not consistent (ex Santorum will have very low numbers and Perry very high over 2011)
2) Their donations are not small (ex: Romney)

Nevertheless, it will be interesting

[PolicyReader]

Idaho, just changed over from a primary to a caucus and Paul polls quite strongly in the state (and Romney is counting on the strong LDS GOTV effort to give him a leg up). ID has a pop of 1,584,985 with 2008 Primary Results (http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=16&year=2008&f=0&off=0&elect=2) showing a turn out of 125,570. Paul took 23.72% of that (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idaho_Republican_primary,_2008) that Primary vote.
Pauls support has grown since 2008 and his voters are less likely to be pulled away by the current split field (where as the other votes in the race likely are as has been shown).
The greatest threat to Paul in ID is an inadequate GOTV effort so I'm all for the Ad buys and the visits the Paul campaign has and is directing there. I even personally know LDS voters who are turning out For Paul there so while I'm sure the majority of the LDS vote will go Romney results are not a given by any means.
(of course some folks have said I'm too interested in the Nomination Winning Delegates and not interested enough of the straw vote so there's where my focus is /shrug)

Really if Paul can keep it tight in the Southern enclaves of the state (which border Utah) he'll likely leverage the norther (which borders his winnings in WA) to come out on top even in a straw poll scenario. How competitive that straw vote is will weigh heavily on how effectively he keeps things tight in the somewhat more populace south. Also remember than Paul does well on average in more rural areas and Romney consistently pools more poorly within those precincts. So when you consider the map it's more clear how to envision a Paul Win in Idaho
ps~click the Results link above for an interactive map of 2008
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/85/Idaho_population_map.png

[PolicyReader]

Phone From Home thread bump ;)

[QWDC]

So just going off of the fundraising % data, in Ron's best states he should get around:

37.6% in ND
35.8% in AK
27.1% in VT

and that includes the Iowa outliner.

[D.A.S.]

So it looks like we badly underperformed in AK and ND and overperformed dramatically in VA, while TN, OK, and ID number pretty much perfectly pegged the final outcome.

It looks like Idaho was the real error in the Campaign's strategy because the strength of Mormon vote was underestimated, but I guess it's not always possible to tell going in. Maybe their internal polls suggested Idaho is winnable. The only problem is Mormons turnout religiously for Romney, and that must have skewed the polls pretty badly.

[fez2008]

Updated original post with Super Tuesday numbers. Also highlighted March contests + Wisconsin. Everything except ND/AK/IA are closely correlated. I speculate this is a combination of GOTV, not campaigning enough and more importantly the Santorum surges in IA/ND/AK.

The next four: KS, HI, AL, MS (Mar 10-13) are good states
After that play for PRico (Mar 18), ignore MO/LA/IL (Mar 20-24) and concentrate on WI (Apr 3)

[fez2008]

I cannot understand why there are no ND stops. May be they already think it in the bag or .. I just don't understand it. Even John King on CNN said Romney camp thinks it will come second to Dr. Paul in ND.

There are 4 stops in ID, but it is 23% LDS... simple math tells its nearly impossible to beat Romney there. I hope they can pull it off in Idaho, with total 7 stops that will be made there by Mar 5th

ID is a strategic blunder, with so many stops in ND, it might have been much closer although it must have been really hard to beat the Santorum surge

[rpwi]

Are there donation numbers for any of the territories?

Most of these contests are coming up quickly and I'm very curious to know how they will turn out...yet this is so little election data from these 'non-states'.

[fez2008]

Are there donation numbers for any of the territories?

Most of these contests are coming up quickly and I'm very curious to know how they will turn out...yet this is so little election data from these 'non-states'.

Not in the original source link. May be from the FEC website. Will try

[seawolf]

We had better move fast....Donations are collapsing, check out the RP Daily Donation Tracker, http://schiff.depositwiz.com/ and it looks like via POLITICO that the Endorse Liberty Super Pac just pulled the plug on Ron.

[fez2008]

Some information about the territories (not very meaningful due to the small number of donors):

Guam (total 10 donors): 727/4727 = 15%
Romney 2250=250+1000+500+500
MBach 750 =500+250
Tpaw 1000 =1000
RP 727 =325+201+201


Puerto Rico: 902/80702 = 1%

Tpaw 69000=5000+5000+2500+2500+2500+11*2500+7*2500+4*15 00+1000+3*1000+500-2500-2500
MR 8450=2500+1250+1250+1000+1000+1000+250+200
NG 1250=500+250+250+250
RP 902=500+201+201
RSan 550=300+250
MBac 300=300
Perry 250=250

Virgin Islands:
MR =2000+1000
HC =1000+1000+500
NG =500+250
RSan =250+250
JH =250

[fez2008]

Updated with KS results

[JJ2]

I would say the ND and AK numbers are evidence of fraud.