Paul now 54% on intrade to win Maine

[nyrgoal99]

Wahoo

[muh_roads]

I know it doesn't mean jack shit, but it still makes me smile. :)

[sailingaway]

I know it doesn't mean jack shit, but it still makes me smile. :)

yeah, it is just that it may go up and down all day as information comes from caucuses-- another roller coaster....would be nice if it just keeps getting higher and higher!

[Okie RP fan]

So, when is the Maine caucus done?

[Fredom101]

This caucus takes forever!

[CTRattlesnake]

This caucus takes forever!

Actually though.

First caucus was January 28th

last one is in early march

[thoughtomator]

This is the first time the "conventional wisdom" as expressed on InTrade found it more likely than not that Paul would win a state. While it has no impact on the race, it is a pretty accurate indicator as people put their money on the line.

[Jingles]

May I ask...?

What is the obsession with Intrade? It's not really polling as much as it is gambling.

[69360]

May I ask...?

What is the obsession with Intrade? It's not really polling as much as it is gambling.

It is gambling. It's run by bookmakers. I like gambling.

It's 60 Ron 40 Mitt right now.

Go Ron!

I hope he wins Maine.

[Aratus]

it is gambling even though there is a tiny onsite poll in their forums where the members think rick santorum will win CPAC.

[1836]

May I ask...?

What is the obsession with Intrade? It's not really polling as much as it is gambling.

Empirical analyses have been done; intrade tends to very accurate.

Here's one example: http://www.iansaxon.com/academic/IanSaxon_MScEconomics_Dissertation.pdf

[matt0611]

May I ask...?

What is the obsession with Intrade? It's not really polling as much as it is gambling.

Well the theory goes is if people are putting money on their line to bet on some outcome, you'd have to figure they'd be doing at least some homework to predict how it is going to turn out.

Intrade is probably too small of a market to accurately predict these things though. I wouldn't put too much stock in it though but its a good sign anyway IMO.

[Aratus]

the newbie who put up the poll was jumped by one of the regulars
for not putting his money where his mouth is. technically it is thusly
intelligent gambling and a social club where sometimes the regulars
square off with each other. tonite is going into adrenaline rush mode.

[ssjevot]

Out of curiosity how did Intrade handle Iowa switching winners?

[noxnoctum]

It's at 60% now.

W00t!

[AngryCanadian]

It's at 60% now.

W00t!

I will bet then to.

[jsem]

61-37.5

[pauliticalfan]

Intrade doesn't predict the news, they follow the news. I wouldn't put too much into it.

As for Iowa, basically right before the caucus, Mitt was heavily favored, Ron and Rick were competing for number 2. As soon as the exit polls came out the early results started rolling in, we jumped up to 60% to win. Then as more results started coming in, Mitt and Rick just went back and forth until eventually Romney "won" and everyone who had money on Romney won and the Santorum people got screwed, because Intrade paid based off of who "won" on Caucus night and not who actually won two weeks later. A lot of people got screwed out of money in Iowa.

[Aratus]

Out of curiosity how did Intrade handle Iowa switching winners?

painfully. it was ruled on. mitt won. bets were settled. mitt won. mitt paid.
even though rick S may have. lets don't ask about tampering. so they didn't.

[Bama Boy]

Out of curiosity how did Intrade handle Iowa switching winners?

Romney was the favorite to win, but Santorum went up and down all night the results were being determined.

[AngryCanadian]

61% now.

[Philosophy_of_Politics]

Intrade follows a trend based on popularity and favorability.

[surf]

the problem is calculating the winner and how it's determined. many delegates won't be determined for a while. i love intrade, but how is "winner" generally determined in caucus states?

[low preference guy]

the problem is calculating the winner and how it's determined. many delegates won't be determined for a while. i love intrade, but how is "winner" generally determined in caucus states?

the results they show on tv tonight determine who won for intrade purposes.

[1836]

the problem is calculating the winner and how it's determined. many delegates won't be determined for a while. i love intrade, but how is "winner" generally determined in caucus states?

The media reports the straw poll winner as the winner, while in all actuality, the winner is determined by those who hang around long enough at their caucus meetings and/or show enough interest to stand for election as delegates to county, and then state conventions. Then from that final pool, national delegates are elected.

[UK4Paul]

Now at 68% :)

[Aratus]

yep... folks are about to short

[low preference guy]

Romney people buying shares to increase Paul's expectations?

[Karsten]

If Ron Paul wins Maine, shouldn't we widen the state to also include some of Canada?

[69360]

70 now. Probably lots of bets based on the leaked results from sites like this. I'll take it, this is exciting.

[69360]

yep... folks are about to short

Think betters are running it up to short sell? Maybe.


If Ron Paul wins Maine, shouldn't we widen the state to also include some of Canada?

Let's invade the socialists and take their land. Just kidding. :)

[ssjevot]

Think betters are running it up to short sell? Maybe.



Let's invade the socialists and take their land. Just kidding. :)

Canada has a freer market than the US.

[low preference guy]

Canada has a freer market than the US.

in health care?

[surf]

Canada has a freer market than the US.
and generally better beer

[American Idol]

Canada has a freer market than the US.

How so? Not arguing, just wondering your analysis that leads to this conclusion.

[PaleoPaul]

If Ron Paul wins Maine, shouldn't we widen the state to also include some of Canada?
The country with socialized health care? LOL, yeah right.

[69360]

Romney is falling off a cliff on intrade now. Down to 22%

[jolynna]

Woo...hoo...70% on Intrade.

Ohhhhh Please!

[liveandletlive]

The country with socialized health care? LOL, yeah right.

come on, other than that, Canada is a great country

[Inkblots]

How so? Not arguing, just wondering your analysis that leads to this conclusion.

One example that immediately leaps to mind is the air traffic control system - it's government run in the US, while in Canada it's run by the private sector. I believe Canada also has a much more streamlined approval process for resource extraction. And of course, Canadian banks aren't taxpayer supported like the post-TARP American financial sector. So, yes, in some ways Canada does have a freer market.

[justatrey]

75% - Hoping that someone must know something...

[PaleoPaul]

come on, other than that, Canada is a great country
I'm not saying Canada is a good or a bad country, or that the people are good or bad.

I'm just challenging the "freer market" notion.

[Aratus]

lets don't invade canada. here's how intrade sorta does things at times with money.
when mitt is about to dip after the high rollers get up a block of 100 to 1000 shares,
as they dutifully ride them from $9.95 or $9.90 if lucky to $9.99 or $10.00 they all short
when sensing a mitt slip of a major degree. he has been having these rollercoaster rides
with either newt gingrich or rick santorum, so to see romneybots quail at a dr. paul win
is sorta cool. you wouldn't believe the dips and climbs when donald trump toyed with
backing newt gingrich over mitt romney. anything ABOVE a penny or 2 is shorted if
need be. the direct betting to win is a simple scenario. you buy cheap & then sit.

[ssjevot]

Canada consistently outranks the US on all economic freedom indices:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Freedom_of_the_World
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom

[UK4Paul]

Nuts. I was looking at this at $3.30 the other day and thinking, "Hmm... I should buy some of these."

I didn't.

:mad:

[low preference guy]

Canada consistently outranks the US on all economic freedom indices:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Freedom_of_the_World
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom

do they include on their measures freedoms to buy and sell guns?

[ssjevot]

do they include on their measures freedoms to buy and sell guns?

I don't know the methodology exactly, you can read up on it, but it's pretty much agreed upon by all the people that study this stuff that Canada has a freer market (and actually overall more freedom period). I don't think people realize how much government involvement there is in the US.

[Aratus]

Nuts. I was looking at this at $3.30 the other day
and thinking, "Hmm... I should buy some of these."

I didn't.

:mad:

a poster was told Ron Paul about a week ago or so by "speedo" that
$2.50 for Ron Paul shares was something that could be arranged if
the others on the site at that point in the forum area so desired!!!!
several weeks back 1st place was only 50 cents! second was higher!

[kathy88]

Paul 75%
Romney 20%
Santorum 1.7%
Newt .1% (HAHAHAHAHHAHA)

[ssjevot]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_indices
Country: Freedom House 2011 Economic Freedom 2011 Press Freedom 2011 Democracy Index 2011

Canada: free, free, good situation, full democracy

United States: free, mostly free, noticeable problems, full democracy

[libertythor]

Canada has a lot of province autonomy with how social programs are run, funded and allocated, possibly more than US states rights in some instances.

I would imagine that a comparison is a double-edged sword because their will be advantages and disadvantages. Most likely, Alberta and other middle and western provinces are freer than New York or California.

[Aratus]

the campaign has kept caucus results from our maine people tighter to the proverbial leather vest than a good poker hand.
there was a strategic deleat in a thread here, and then a backpeddling. we are grassroots and we are perhaps reacting to
both nate silver and matt drudge, but we do know some of the results have been sweet, reet and laid back. we have mojo.

[Aratus]

lets be nice about the poor canadians and what they go thru as we sit back and wait for the maine results.

[Aratus]

i am a baystater and i have been saying that it is possible to bobble, wobble and defeat mitt romney.

[RonPaul101.com]

Intrade doesn't predict the news, they follow the news. I wouldn't put too much into it.

As for Iowa, basically right before the caucus, Mitt was heavily favored, Ron and Rick were competing for number 2. As soon as the exit polls came out the early results started rolling in, we jumped up to 60% to win. Then as more results started coming in, Mitt and Rick just went back and forth until eventually Romney "won" and everyone who had money on Romney won and the Santorum people got screwed, because Intrade paid based off of who "won" on Caucus night and not who actually won two weeks later. A lot of people got screwed out of money in Iowa.

You know what they say, "A Santorum voter and his money are soon parted."

[RonPaul101.com]

Nuts. I was looking at this at $3.30 the other day and thinking, "Hmm... I should buy some of these."

I didn't.

:mad:

2nd Place in MI is still a good deal... if Paul takes 1st, you can;t be upset with losing.

Pal to win Washington... only 20%, good deal too.

[ssjevot]

I think Paul to win Washington is a good investment. It will go up fast.

[IDefendThePlatform]

For the Ames straw poll Bachmann shot up to 70-80% after the voting closed but before the results were announced.

In other words, this makes me very, very hopeful.

[nedomedo]

This is too exciting. There are no other caucuses or primaries for a while. This will be excellent for momentum.

[Aratus]

a 7 dollar bet right now has a high proability of being an official ten spot by 7 p.m

[IDefendThePlatform]

Paul ahead of Romney 64% to 39% now.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventClassId=19

I (http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventClassId=19)f I were a Maine GOP insider I'd be betting some cash one way or another right now.

[AngryCanadian]

Paul ahead of Romney 64% to 39% now.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventClassId=19

I (http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventClassId=19)f I were a Maine GOP insider I'd be betting some cash one way or another right now.

hey if i bet 1 dollar how much would i gain on intrade?

[pulp8721]

Up to 70% now!

[ross11988]

hey if i bet 1 dollar how much would i gain on intrade?

Right now at 70% So you would win the difference 1 * 30% = .30 cents.

Why you make more money (bigger risk when its a lower chance (IE: 50% would win you 50 cents)

[Karsten]

Also gone up slightly on to be the Republican nominee.

[ross11988]

Also gone up slightly on to be the Republican nominee.

By how much? .01%?

[Karsten]

By how much? .01%?

It was 3.something last time i checked, now it's 4.1

[JoshS]

Maine's just out here saving the country. nbd

[Schiff_FTW]

Can U.S. citizens use intrade? I heard the bank rejects the transfers. Maybe if you use some sort of proxy.

[robert9712000]

Wow up to 80% on intrade.I wish i was that sure

[matt0611]

Wow up to 80% on intrade.I wish i was that sure

Same, me too. Please let us win for once...

[bbartlog]

80% sounds like someone acting on inside information. Which if big money were involved would annoy me but in this case makes me cautiously optimistic.

[Aratus]

i think nate silver reacted to matt drudge who took some of the stories seriously out of maine
and when nate silver tweeted his tweet the smart money moved fast at intrade. there are quite
a few reaction times. some are fast, some are slow, some are thorough. the bubble began thusly.

[sailingaway]

80% sounds like someone acting on inside information. Which if big money were involved would annoy me but in this case makes me cautiously optimistic.

maybe the fact that htey are gaming delegates at the party means they are conceding the vote in the straw poll? Or intrade takes it so?

[Karsten]

Down to 70 now, what's going on?

[One Last Battle!]

Down to 70 now, what's going on?

Bet hedging. I strongly think we'll win, but I don't think the odds are 80%

[Ray]

Remember, intrade is extremely low volume trading, so it is very volatile.

[SCOTUSman]

This proves intrade is bullshit.

[low preference guy]

This proves intrade is bullshit.

anyone with lots of money could use it to manipulate expectations

[playpianoking]

did intrade settle? Paul could still win this Saturday...

[RonPaulwillWin]

It went down to .1%

[Louis Vouid]

Intrade is nothing but betting. Just like sports odds, the odds rise and fall SOLELY based on how much money comes in for one side. For example, if there was a game between the University of Kentucky and Binghamton University (ranked dead last in college basketball), the odds would start out with something like +28 points. But if for some reason, EVERYONE bet on Binghamton the odds would change and if no one ever bet on Kentucky even as the point spread dropped, Binghamton could actually be the favorite to win the game.

So all this shows is that slightly more people have risked money on Ron Paul. All intrade is trying to do is to get the exact same amount of money bet on Ron Paul as Mitt Romney. That way they have no risk. Half the bets are wins, half are losses, and intrade keeps the 10% vig.

Conventional wisdom says that when one side has a more rabid following, the other "team" is ALWAYS the better bet. For example, if you find a bookie in a college town, chances are you will win more if you ALWAYS bet against that team. Because the students of that team's school will likely bet with their hearts and not their brains. So games that would normally be, say Duke favored by 4 points might go down to Duke favored by 2.5 points. Over the course of a season, the number of bets you would win because Duke wins by 3 or 4 points that would otherwise be losses or ties will make you a lot of money.

Ron Paul would be like the most rabid college team you can think of. His supporters are FAR more likely to bother betting even if just to make a statement.

[Aratus]

Intrade has a BIG DIG thread, too!:D

i know i've created several here and

i've often given the addy to a video by

christy mihos that is succintly accurate.

[ZENemy]

Santorum went to the dentist, as a result I heard he is surging now and at 3423% which doesn't even exist, Fox News went to another universe to achieve that high of a percentage.

[Louis Vouid]

Right now at 70% So you would win the difference 1 * 30% = .30 cents.

Why you make more money (bigger risk when its a lower chance (IE: 50% would win you 50 cents)


No...if it was 50%, you would win even money...as in if you bet $1 you would win $1. (minus the vig)

No one would EVER bet if a 50-50 bet only gave you half you bet.

at 70-30, a $1 bet on the 70 would win about 42 cents (again, minus the vig) while a bet on the 30 would win about $2.30.

The way to calculate it is to say he bookie takes 100 bets. Simplified, it means that 70 people have bet $1 on Paul and 30 on Romney. So, if Paul wins, the bookie gets to keep their $30. That is what they want to pay out to Paul bettors. Meaning they would get $30/70 (plus their original $1 bet.) If Romney wins, the bookie keeps the $70 from Paul bettors, and pays it out to Romney bettors, so they would get $70/30 or $2.33 plus their original $1.

[AngryCanadian]

Intrade is a waste of money.