Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul compared

[Keith and stuff]

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul in 2012 compared

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul in the Republican Primary or Republican Caucus, ranked highest to lowest (and the 2008 percentage):
1. New Hampshire 4.3% (1.4%)
2. Vermont 2.4% (0.4%)
3. Montana 2% (1.7%)
4. South Carolina 1.7% (0.4%)
5. Wisconsin 1.5% (0.3%)
6. Indiana 1.5% (0.5%)
7. Virginia 1.3% (0.3%)
8. Michigan 1.2% (0.6%)
9. North Carolina 1.1% (0.4%)
10. Ohio 1% (0.5%)
11. Nebraska 1% (1%)
12. Oregon 0.9% (1.3%)
13. Iowa 0.9% (0.4%)
14. Pennsylvania 0.8% (1%)
15. South Dakota 0.8% (1.2%)
16. Tennessee 0.8% (0.5%)
17. Oklahoma 0.7% (0.3%)
18. Arkansas 0.7% (0.4%)
19. Texas 0.7% (0.3%)
20. Illinois 0.7% (0.4%)
21. West Virgina 0.7% (0.3%)
22. Alabama 0.6% (0.3%)
23. Florida 0.6% (0.3%)
24. Georgia 0.6% (0.3%)
25. Arizona 0.6% (0.4%)
26. Massachusetts 0.5% (0.2%)
27. Kentucky 0.5% (0.3%)
28. Idaho 0.5% (1.9%)
29. Missouri 0.5% (0.4%)
30. New Mexico 0.5% (0.8%)
31. North Dakota 0.4% (0.3%)
32. Alaska 0.4% (0.3%)
33. Mississippi 0.4% (0.2%)
34. California 0.4% (0.3%)
35. Maryland 0.4% (0.3%)
36. Utah 0.4% (0.3%)
37. Delaware 0.3% (0.2%)
38. Rhode Island 0.3% (0.2%)
39. New Jersey 0.3% (0.3%)
40. Minnesota 0.2% (0.2%)
41. Louisiana 0.2% (0.2%)
42. Nevada 0.2% (0.2%)
43. Connecticut 0.2% (0.2%)
44. Washington 0.2% (0.6%)
45. Colorado 0.2% (0.1%)
46. Maine 0.2% (0.08%)
47. Hawaii 0.1% (No popular vote)
48. New York 0.1% (0.2%)
49. Kansas 0.1% (0.08%)
United States Virgin Islands 0.1% (0.01%)
50. Wyoming 0.1% (No popular vote)
Washington D.C. 0.09% (0.08%)
Northern Mariana Islands 0.05% (0.01%)
Puerto Rico 0.04% (0.0002%)

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul in the Republican Primary or Republican Caucus, listed in chronological order:
Iowa 1/3/12 0.9% (.8620)
New Hampshire 1/10/12 4.3%
South Carolina 1/21/12 1.7%
Florida 1/21/12 0.6%
Nevada 2/4/12 0.2% (.2267)
Missouri 2/7/12 0.5% (.5097)
Minnesota 2/7/12 0.2% (.2474)
Colorado 2/7/12 0.2% (.1516)
Maine 2/11/12 0.2% (.17)
Michigan 2/28/12 1.2%
Arizona 2/28/12 0.6%
Wyoming 2/29/12 0.08%
Washington 3/3/12 0.2% (.1852)
Vermont 3/6/12 2.4%
Virginia 3/6/12 1.3%
Ohio 3/6/12 1%
Tennessee 3/6/12 0.8% (.7777)
Oklahoma 3/6/12 0.7% (.7272)
Georgia 3/6/12 0.6% (.6007)
Massachusetts 3/6/12 0.5% (.5318)
Idaho 3/6/12 0.5% (.5101)
Alaska 3/6/12 0.4% (.4393)
North Dakota 3/6/12 0.4% (.4295)
Kansas 3/10/12 0.1% (.1311)
United States Virgin Islands 3/10/12 0.1% (.1020)
Northern Mariana Islands 3/10/12 0.05%
Alabama 3/13/12 0.6% (.6381)
Mississippi 3/13/12 0.4% (.4196)
Hawaii 3/13/12 0.1% (.1436)
Puerto Rico 3/18/12 0.04%
Illinois 3/20/12 0.7% (.6682)
Louisiana 3/24/12 0.2% (.2497)
Wisconsin 4/3/12 1.5% (1.538)
Maryland 4/3/12 0.4% (.3860)
Washington D.C. 4/3/12 0.09% (.0865)
Pennsylvania 4/24/12 0.8% (.8302)
Delaware 4/24/12 0.3% (.3325)
Rhode Island 4/24/12 0.3% (.3293)
Connecticut 4/24/12 0.2% (.2238)
New York 4/24/12 0.1% (.1341)
Indiana 5/8/12 1.5% (1.528)
North Carolina 5/8/12 1.1% (1.109)
West Virgina 5/8/12 0.7% (.6609)
Nebraska 5/15/12 1.0% (.9876)
Oregon 5/15/12 0.9% (.9323)
Arkansas 5/22/12 0.7% (.6898)
Kentucky 5/22/12 0.5% (.5045)
Texas 5/29/12 0.7% (.6730)
Montana 6/5/12 2% (2.002)
South Dakota 6/5/12 0.8% (.8135)
New Mexico 6/5/12 0.5% (.4559)
California 6/5/12 0.4% (.3923)
New Jersey 6/5/12 0.3% (.2720)
Utah 6/26/12 0.4% (.3685)

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul, listed by how easy it is to vote in state primary:
Everyone Allowed to Vote
Vermont 2.4%
Montana 2%
South Carolina 1.7%
Wisconsin 1.5%
Indiana 1.5%
Virginia 1.3%
Michigan 1.2%
Ohio 1%
Tennessee 0.8%
Arkansas 0.7%
Texas 0.7%
Illinois 0.7%
Alabama 0.6%
Georgia 0.6%
Missouri 0.5%
Mississippi 0.4%
Puerto Rico 0.04%

GOP and Undeclared or Unenrolled (Independents) Allowed to Vote
New Hampshire 4.3%
North Carolina 1.1%
West Virgina 0.7%
Massachusetts 0.5%
Rhode Island 0.3%

GOP Allowed to Vote
Nebraska 1%
Oregon 0.9%
Pennsylvania 0.8%
South Dakota 0.8%
Oklahoma 0.7%
Florida GOP 0.6%
Arizona 0.6%
Kentucky 0.5%
New Mexico 0.5%
California 0.4%
Maryland 0.4%
Utah 0.4%
Delaware 0.3%
New Jersey 0.3%
Louisiana 0.2%
Connecticut 0.2%
New York 0.1%
Washington D.C. 0.09%

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul, listed by how easy it is to vote in state caucus:
Everyone Allowed to Vote
North Dakota 0.4%
Minnesota 0.2%
Washington 0.2%

GOP and Undeclared or Unenrolled (Independents) Allowed to Vote
Maine 0.2%
Hawaii 0.1%

GOP Allowed to Vote
Iowa 0.9%
Idaho 0.5%
Alaska 0.4%
Nevada 0.2%
Colorado 0.2%
Kansas 0.1%
United States Virgin Islands 0.1%
Wyoming 0.1%
Northern Mariana Islands 0.04%

Google chart link http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chf=bg,s,EAF7FE&chs=440x220&cht=t&chco=FFFFFF,FF0000,FFFF00,00FF00&chld=AKALARAZCACOCTDEFLGAHIIAIDILINKSKYLAMAMDMEMIM NMOMSMTNCNDNENHNJNMNVNYOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVAVTWAW IWVWY&chd=t:100,70,70,70,100,100,100,100,70,70,100,70,70 ,70,45,100,70,100,70,100,100,45,100,70,100,25,45,1 00,45,1,100,70,100,100,45,70,70,70,100,45,70,70,70 ,100,45,25,100,45,70,100&chtm=usa
http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/2972/627chart.png
Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul in the Republican Primary or Republican Caucus, ranked highest to lowest by color:
Red 5% to 3% (NH)
Orange 2.9% to 2% (VT MT)
Yellow 1.9% to 1% (SC WI IN VA MI NC OH NE)
Light Green 0.9% to 0.5% (OR IA PA SC TN OK AR TX IL WV AL FL GA AZ MA KY ID MO NM)
Green less than 0.5% (ND AK MS CA MD UT DE RI NJ MN LA NV CT WA CO ME HI NY KS WY)

Sources:
Type "population of XXX" into Google to see the population source used for the states. Results quickly pop up from http://www.google.com/publicdata -- Source: U.S. Census Bureau
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2012_Republican_Party_presidential_ primaries for the vote results
See http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?315740-State-by-State-Voting-Information for information on about how easy it is to vote in a primary or caucus
See http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?359870-of-total-population-voting-for-RP-by-state-%28hint-NH-blows-away-the-competition%29&p=4165019&viewfull=1#post4165019 for 2008 percentages

[Keith and stuff]

Michigan 2/28/12 1.2%

[tbone717]

Nice work. It may also be helpful to know the percentage of votes as it relates to the 2008 general election vote total.

[Keith and stuff]

Arizona 2/28/12 0.6%

[Keith and stuff]

Wyoming 2/29/12 0.08%

Wyoming didn't have a popular vote in 2008 so these numbers shouldn't be looked down on. This is progress.

[Keith and stuff]

Ron Paul won Detroit, MI. Here is a look at Detroit, just for fun.

Detroit voting results:
Paul 5,525
Santorum 4,047
Romney 1,338
Gingrich?
Obama 32,980 (in the Democratic Primary)

Estimated population of Detroit:
713777

Percentage of the population that voted for Ron Paul in Detroit:
0.8%

Percentage of the population that voted for Obama in Detroit:
4.6%

Interestingly enough, if you combined the percentage of the population that voted for Ron Paul in the NH GOP Primary (4.3%) and the NH Democratic Primary (0.2%), it is still lower than Obama did in Detroit. Obama is very popular in Detroit.

If you look at MI as a whole, 1.8% of the population voted for Obama.

Percentage of total state or city population voting for:
4.6% Obama in Detroit (Obama came in 1st)
4.5% Paul in NH (Paul came in 2nd in both the GOP and Democratic Primaries)
4.2% Romney in MI (Romney came in 1st)
1.8% Obama in MI (Obama came in 1st)
1.7% Paul in SC (Paul came in 4th)
1.2% Paul in MI (Paul came in 3rd)
1.0% Paul in OH (Paul came in 4th)
0.8% Paul in Detroit (Paul came in 1st)
0.2% Romney in Detroit (Romney came in 3rd)

[Keith and stuff]

Washington 3/3/12 0.2%

[Keith and stuff]

Virginia 3/6/12 1.3%

Keep in mind that only 2 candidates were on the ballot in VA, the Republican Primary was open and there was not a Democratic Primary. VA was the only state in the US with only two choices. Because of these factors, all other things being equal, VA should have been Ron Paul's best Primary state and perhaps his best state.

[Keith and stuff]

North Dakota 3/6/12 0.4%

[Keith and stuff]

Tennessee 3/6/12 0.8%
Oklahoma 3/6/12 0.7%

[Keith and stuff]

Idaho 3/6/12 0.5%

[unknown]

Whats the point of this thread?

[Keith and stuff]

Ohio 3/6/12 1%
Georgia 3/6/12 0.6%
Massachusetts 3/6/12 0.5%
Alaska 3/6/12 0.4%

[Keith and stuff]

Whats the point of this thread?

I find the numbers extraordinarily interesting :rolleyes:

The point is to compare the percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul in various states. If the number is relatively high in a state, perhaps a relatively larger percentage of the population in that state is aware and in agreement with Paul's message. If the number is relatively low in a state, perhaps a relatively smaller percentage of the population in that state is aware and in agreement with Paul's message. I listed it by date to show how the number changes over time. I broke it down by primary and caucus states. I further broke it down by which type of people are able to vote in each state.

I'll do a comparison example.

Everyone Allowed to Vote
Washington 0.2%
GOP Allowed to Vote
Alaska 0.4%

Every voter was allowed to vote for Paul in Washington. Only Republican voters were allowed to vote for Paul in Alaska. However, twice the percentage of the population vote for Paul in Alaska, even though only Republicans were able to vote for him. Keep in mind that the Paul campaign focused much more on WA than AK. Perhaps, a higher percentage of people are awake to Paul's message in AK. At the very least, a higher percentage of people, from a much smaller poll of voters (only Republicans) voted for Paul in AK.

[Lisa100]

Interesting. I did not realize the percentage of total population voting for Ron was so small.
This is actually sad.
It is hard to find any patterns, because there are so many different factors in each state, besides the ones you listed, like % religious or amount spent on ads, etc.
But thanks for posting this!

[Keith and stuff]

Vermont 3/6/12 2.4%

Vermont is the state with the 2nd highest percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul. Typically, the turnout is higher in the earlier states. That is true this year for most states. For example, SC has the 3rd highest turnout for Paul and IA has the highest turnout for Paul among the caucus states. However, the Republican Primary turnout was very high in Vermont, compared to 2008. Much of that turnout is 2008 Democratic Primary voters switching to the Republican Primary this time. In fact, exit polls show that only 49% of the Vermont Republican Primary voters were Republicans.

[unknown]

Interesting. I did not realize the percentage of total population voting for Ron was so small.
This is actually sad.

Its actually not sad. It is however irrelevant.

Just take ND for example. The state population is around 680,000 and only about 10,000 total votes were cast in the primary.

So?

Let me save the OP some time. Its ALWAYS going to be a tiny %.

I also want my 30 seconds back.

[Keith and stuff]

Let me save the OP some time. Its ALWAYS going to be a tiny %.

I also want my 30 seconds back.

I'm sorry that you don't enjoy statistics or comparing states. I'm sorry that you don't enjoy learning how well Ron Paul's message has reached the people of the various states.

I didn't do this to make Ron Paul look bad. I did it to compare the states and show how well Ron Paul is doing. To that, I'm not just doing Ron Paul. I also did Obama and Romney, for example. Additionally, I included explanations and examples from time to time.

[unknown]

I'm sorry that you don't enjoy statistics or comparing states. I'm sorry that you don't enjoy learning how well Ron Paul's message has reached the people of the various states.

I didn't do this to make Ron Paul look bad. I did it to compare the states and show how well Ron Paul is doing. To that, I'm not just doing Ron Paul. I also did Obama and Romney, for example. Additionally, I included explanations and examples from time to time.

Ok but wouldnt it be more relevant to do it as a % of total votes cast which would be the actual voting results...

Your analysis, IMO, seems to miss some obvious factors (unless you've covered it previously). For example, how many people in the state are eligible to vote? Then one would ask of those people, how many are actually registered? That leads to how many of those registered people are able to vote based on open/closed primary rules etc.

The number of votes cast in a primary/caucus are TINY compared to the state's entire population. Just look at ND, 683,000 people in the state and 10,000 voted in the primary...

[LittleLightShining]

Vermont 3/6/12 2.4%
Vermont is the state with the 2nd highest percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul. Typically, the turnout is higher in the earlier state. That is true this year for most states. For example, SC has the 3rd highest turnout for Paul and IA has the highest turnout for Paul among the caucus states. However, the Republican Primary turnout was very high in Vermont, compared to 2008. Much of that turnout is 2008 Democratic Primary voters switching to the Republican Primary this time.

That's probably true but the Democrats made a concerted effort (egged on by DailyKOS) to vote for Rick Santorum.

Forty-one percent GOP primary voters in the state described themselves as Independents, vastly higher than the 23 percent of independents voting in the state’s open primary in 2008. And this year 40 percent of those independent voters supported Ron Paul, versus 28 percent for next-state neighbor Romney. (http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/super-tuesday-independents-shape-the-race-in-vermont-primary/)

^^^This is one of the best analysis I've seen on VT yet. Read the whole thing.


And also, the crossover vote was some protest vote from folks wanting to send an anti-war message, but we have strong and real support from former Obama voters.

[Keith and stuff]

Ok but wouldnt it be more relevant to do it as a % of total votes cast which would be the actual voting results...

That has already been done, obviously. I wanted to compare them in a different way.


Your analysis, IMO, seems to miss some obvious factors (unless you've covered it previously). For example, how many people in the state are eligible to vote? Then one would ask of those people, how many are actually registered? That leads to how many of those registered people are able to vote based on open/closed primary rules etc.

The number of people eligible to vote is of no relation to what I am comparing. The percentage of the population eligible to vote, is arguably related, but I disagree with that. In some states, felons aren't allowed to vote. The states with decent laws in that respect (of course, felons should be able to vote), shouldn't be punished because certain other states have a bad law.

What is relevant is the percentage of the population over 17 or whatever the voting age is in the various states. Feel free to come up with that info. You can start a new thread or post it here.

For what I am looking at voting age people registered vs. voting age people unregistered doesn't matter. As I explained, I'm trying to see what percentage of the population in the various states is aware of and in agreement with Paul's message. It is true that some people may be aware of and in agreement with Paul's message and not actually vote for Paul because they are very lazy people. If the people don't have the energy to register to vote and vote, I really am not concerned with them. I am not a babysitter.

Perhaps they are anarchists that don't vote. I understand that may hurt NH more than most states in these results as NH is known for having a large, nonvoting pro-liberty anarchist population compared to other state, per capita. However, NH still did best so it seems to not have hurt NH very much, compared to the other states. It seems to be either a non factor or a factor so small it doesn't make a noticeable difference in the big picture.

[Keith and stuff]

That's probably true but the Democrats made a concerted effort (egged on by DailyKOS) to vote for Rick Santorum.

From the article you posted, I thought this was interesting.


Two other factors worked in Romney’s favor: “Very” conservative voters, a group in which he’s struggled, made up 18 percent of the voters in Vermont, their lowest share in any state to date. And 27 percent of Vermont voters were evangelicals, another more difficult group for Romney – fewer than anywhere but New Hampshire.

In VT, Democrats made efforts to vote for Ron Paul or Rick Santorum. When I was at the polling place, a Democrat came up to me asking who to vote for to screw Romney. Of course, I was holding a Paul sign. Paul came in 2nd in neighboring NH, and also in near-by ME. He also came in 2nd in the WA caucus, which was the most recent race.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/vt

Vote by Party ID
Democrat
Paul 42%
Santorum 26%

Vote by Party ID
Independent (most Independents in VT lean Democrat)
Paul 38%
Santorum 21%

Vote by Ideology
Moderate or Liberal
Paul 34%
Santorum 21%

Opinion of Tea Party Movement
Strongly Oppose
Paul 46%
Santorum 23%

Abortion Should Be...
Always Legal
Paul 37%
Santorum 20%

[LittleLightShining]

I organized northern Vermont. I know what I'm talking about.

[Keith and stuff]

I organized northern Vermont. I know what I'm talking about.

Thank you. Did you see any of the NH campaign staff up there? The person that organized southern VT lived in NH, over an hour from the NH/VT border.

[LittleLightShining]

VT grassroots helped out a lot in Coos county and Littleton. I took on Lancaster as a town captain and made sure there were at least 2 Vermonters (but some days upwards of 6 of us) on the ground there. A couple we worked with in Littleton spent a couple days canvassing with us. We also had two more from Lancaster take on two towns as town captains. I also kept in touch with Norman T who was hired back on by the campaign about 9 days before the primary. He helped with phone calling and helped find people to man a few polling stations Jared kindly drove a suburban full of signs over from NH and I guess he bounced around on primary day. Aside from that no, there was no campaign staff visible.

We had nowhere near the support that was had in NH. Not complaining at all. But I'm proud of what the grassroots did here. We got 4 delegates, made Romney spend money here he wasn't expecting to need to, held him back from 50%, beat Rick Santorum and quadrupled our numbers from 08. 53 towns in VT were won by Ron Paul. You can try all you want to dismiss those wins based on your experience in Brattleboro but it doesn't hold water. Certain areas are more libertarian than you'd think. And there are some people left on the left that are anti-war and anti-fascist. We reached out to them and they joined us.



From what I understand the gentleman from NH that "organized" southern Vermont (we did need help there, so thanks!) came in to VT, started his own meetup and refused to communicate with us in our already effective and organized meetup. This created a gap in communication between him and the rest of the statewide grassroots network. I had my hands full in the NEK and Lamoille County.

[Keith and stuff]

VT grassroots helped out a lot in Coos county and Littleton. I took on Lancaster as a town captain and made sure there were at least 2 Vermonters (but some days upwards of 6 of us) on the ground there. A couple we worked with in Littleton spent a couple days canvassing with us. We also had two more from Lancaster take on two towns as town captains. I also kept in touch with Norman T who was hired back on by the campaign about 9 days before the primary. He helped with phone calling and helped find people to man a few polling stations Jared kindly drove a suburban full of signs over from NH and I guess he bounced around on primary day. Aside from that no, there was no campaign staff visible.

That's awesome. Paul wouldn't have done so well in NH if it wasn't for volunteers from VT, MA NY and so on helping out. NH is by far the most competitive state in the US and we needed all of the help we could get. Thank you to all of the Vermonters that helped out in the NH North Country. That was Paul's best region in NH. The big NH office was in Concord. I know the grassroots went up to the North County, had newspaper ads but I'm not even sure if the campaign did anything up there, other than makes a ton of phone calls. Paul did mention that he wouldn't approve Northern Pass, a major issue in the North County and the media spread his opinion on that up there. Norman is awesome. It is great having state Reps. helping Paul.


Certain areas are more libertarian than you'd think. And there are some people left on the left that are anti-war and anti-fascist. We reached out to them and they joined us.

That strategy makes sense in VT. Most of Paul's voters in VT likely came from Democratic leaning individuals. I agree that there are a lot of anti-war type people in VT. A couple of us at my polling place would sometimes mention that to people as they entered the polls.


From what I understand the gentleman from NH that "organized" southern Vermont (we did need help there, so thanks!) came in to VT, started his own meetup and refused to communicate with us in our already effective and organized meetup.

I don't know anything about that but it may be a different NH person you are talking about. The guy that the campaign (the NH campaign staff organized in ME and VT for Ron Paul, though on a much, much smaller scale than in NH) had do southern VT that I'm talking about only did the 2 southern counties in VT. He didn't seem like the type of person to start a meetup group. I learned about him from the campaign chair in my county. Regardless, it makes sense the that campaign people and the grassroots people organize some things separately.

[LittleLightShining]

That's awesome. Paul wouldn't have done so well in NH if it wasn't for volunteers from VT, MA NY and so on helping out. NH is by far the most competitive state in the US and we needed all of the help we could get. Thank you to all of the Vermonters that helped out in the NH North Country. That was Paul's best region in NH. The big NH office was in Concord. I know the grassroots went up to the North County, had newspaper ads but I'm not even sure if the campaign did anything up there, other than makes a ton of phone calls. Paul did mention that he wouldn't approve Northern Pass, a major issue in the North County and the media spread his opinion on that up there. Norman is awesome. It is great having state Reps. helping Paul. We had a specific strategy in Coos/northern Grafton counties that focused on canvassing and poll watching. We were actually advised on our pre-primary conf call by the campaign NOT to watch the polls but to stay home and make calls. We said thanks, you can get off now and we'll talk to you in a couple days. Coos county was covered at the polls, we watched the votes and we had lists to make sure our people who didn't make it in to vote got phone calls before the polls closed. Wish we had enough time to put together the troops we needed to do that in VT but that doesn't mean it can't be improved on elsewhere.




That strategy makes sense in VT. Most of Paul's voters in VT likely came from Democratic leaning individuals. I agree that there are a lot of anti-war type people in VT. A couple of us at my polling place would sometimes mention that to people as they entered the polls. That strategy works in any open primary state. Most of Paul's votes did not come from Democrats. Paul's votes came from Republicans, independents and some Democrats. WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT WE NEED TO WIN THE GENERAL!




I don't know anything about that but it may be a different NH person you are talking about. The guy that the campaign (the NH campaign staff organized in ME and VT for Ron Paul, though on a much, much smaller scale than in NH) had do southern VT that I'm talking about only did the 2 southern counties in VT. He didn't seem like the type of person to start a meetup group. I learned about him from the campaign chair in my county. Regardless, it makes sense the that campaign people and the grassroots people organize some things separately.Then we are talking about a different guy. You mean Mike F? He didn't go out of his way to work with anyone as far as I can see. And Marion in Chittenden county was absolutely useless. Norman worked overtime to help in what capacity he could. If anyone from the campaign deserves any kind of kudos it's Norman. We didn't coordinate-- we complemented.

[tremendoustie]

Its actually not sad. It is however irrelevant.

Just take ND for example. The state population is around 680,000 and only about 10,000 total votes were cast in the primary.

So?

Let me save the OP some time. Its ALWAYS going to be a tiny %.

The point is not that the percentages are small. The percentages are small for every candidate, because only a small percentage of the population votes in the primary.

The point of these statistics are to compare the percentage of people in each state who understand liberty, and are willing to make the effort to do something about it, by voting for RP.

It's a comparison between states, not between candidates.

In NH, nearly one in 20 people you see on the street, including children, democrats, nonvoters, etc, voted for Ron Paul in the republican primary. No other state can come close to saying that.

[Keith and stuff]

I added the 2008 percentages according to this source, http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?359870-of-total-population-voting-for-RP-by-state-%28hint-NH-blows-away-the-competition%29&p=4165019&viewfull=1#post4165019

The percentages are up for almost every state this time around! In 2008, MT has the highest at 2%. MT hasn't voted yet. ID was 2nd highest at 1.9%. There was an ID (open) primary last time. This time ID held caucuses. Less people vote in caucuses so it makes sense that the ID percentage went down.

NH was 3rd in 2008 at 1.4%. NH jumped by the largest amount, all the way up to 4.3%. VT jumped the next highest amount, from 0.4% to 2.4%. SC had the 3rd largest increase.

[Aden]

Cool thread.

[BUSHLIED]

Counties WON per candidate:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e4/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries_results_by _county%2C_2012_%28corrected%29.png/800px-Republican_Party_presidential_primaries_results_by _county%2C_2012_%28corrected%29.png

[Keith and stuff]

Counties WON per candidate:

I like that map. If you want to look at it more closely, the results are broken down by town in at least NH, VT and MA.

Here is NH. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/new-hampshire

Google has maps of VT and MA. http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

[BUSHLIED]

I like that map. If you want to look at it more closely, the results are broken down by town in at least NH, VT and MA.

Here is NH. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/new-hampshire

Google has maps of VT and MA. http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

thanks, just trying to show the big picture!

[Keith and stuff]

thanks, just trying to show the big picture!

That's cool. It is slightly unrelated to this thread but I don't mind going slightly off topic. If you want to see the real big picture, this is a better map.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c8/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries_results%2C _2012.svg/500px-Republican_Party_presidential_primaries_results%2C _2012.svg.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

[Keith and stuff]

Kansas 3/10/12 0.1%

[Keith and stuff]

United States Virgin Islands 3/10/12 0.1%

While the percentage is low, Ron Paul won the popular vote in the United States Virgin Islands. This is Paul's first popular vote state/territory win. Congratulations Ron Paul!

Northern Mariana Islands 3/10/12 0.04%

[Keith and stuff]

Mississippi 3/13/12 0.4%
Alabama 3/13/12 0.6%

A slightly larger percentage of the population voted for Ron Paul in AL compared to MS in 2008, and that trend continued in 2012.

[Keith and stuff]

Hawaii 3/13/12 0.1%

HI is similar to WY in that it didn't hold a popular vote in 2008. However, the Ron Paul Campaign spent a few days in HI and a slightly larger percentage of the population voted for Ron Paul in HI than WY. It also seems that non-Republicans were able to vote in the HI Caucus if they decided to become Republicans that day. In fact, people could even register to vote at the HI Caucus sites.

[Keith and stuff]

Puerto Rico 3/18/12 0.04%

A Spanish language site and CNN stopped reporting results at 83%. Ron Paul is currently at 1,465 according to http://64.185.222.182/cee_events/PRIMARIAS_PARTIDO_REPUBLICANO_2012_36/NOCHE_DEL_EVENTO_55/default.html. Without doing any math, I guessed Paul would end up with 1700 votes if the rest of the votes were ever counted. I'm sure that number is off and if the full results come in, I'm redo this for Puerto Rico.

In 2008, Puerto Rico had a contested Democratic Primary and a contested Republican Caucus. Almost all of the votes were cast in the Democratic Primary. The Republican Caucus only had 207 votes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puerto_Rico_Republican_caucuses,_2008). Ron Paul received 9 of those votes.

[Keith and stuff]

Illinois 3/20/12 0.7%

All of the IL polls showed Ron Paul last but he was 3rd in the vote. Way to go Paul, beating expectations!

[Keith and stuff]

Louisiana Primary 3/24/12 0.2%

[klamath]

I think there are two faults with your stats. Mixing primaries and caucuses and not taking into acount the bandwagon effect and the effect of losing the early primaries and caucuses. I guarentee that RP's percentages would have been higher in all states and even chalenging NH in his later favorable states if he had won Iowa or NH.

[Keith and stuff]

I think there are two faults with your stats. Mixing primaries and caucuses and not taking into acount the bandwagon effect and the effect of losing the early primaries and caucuses. I guarentee that RP's percentages would have been higher in all states and even chalenging NH in his later favorable states if he had won Iowa or NH.

I actually thought I already addressed both of those issues. I broke it up, not only by primary or caucus, but by which type of voters are allowed to vote in each primary and caucus. I also put the states in chronological order to address the bandwagon effect. I even showed the percentages from 2008 so people could compare progress between the cycles. Did I not do all of that? Is there something I am missing? Would you do something differently?

[MelissaCato]

I think it would be interesting to know exactly how many people are eligible to vote in each state. I know in pennsylvania if you have a felony you are not allowed to vote. When I go canvassing, a lot of people say they lost the right to vote because of a felony such as writing a check that bounced and they were charged with a felony. Even having a gun rack in the back of a pickup will get you a felony some people said. If this is the case it will be interesting to know how many people are eligible to vote in each state. I think this is a contributing factor. JMO.

[Keith and stuff]

I think it would be interesting to know exactly how many people are eligible to vote in each state. I know in pennsylvania if you have a felony you are not allowed to vote. When I go canvassing, a lot of people say they lost the right to vote because of a felony such as writing a check that bounced and they were charged with a felony. Even having a gun rack in the back of a pickup will get you a felony some people said. If this is the case it will be interesting to know how many people are eligible to vote in each state. I think this is a contributing factor. JMO.

http://felonvoting.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=286 and http://www.aclupa.org/issues/votingissues/votingrightsofexfelons.htm
These sources say felons may vote in PA. Where is your source? I understand some states have terrible laws that felons aren't allowed to vote. I am sorry that the people in those states tolerate and/or want those terrible laws. I don't live in of those states. However, it seems that Maine and Vermont are best, as felons may vote while in prison. Though, felons cannot caucus while in prison.

I think you could argue it either way, though. In states where felons are allowed to vote, a larger percentage of the adult population is allowed to vote, so in those states, it is even more impressive if Paul does well because his message appeals to more people. In states where felons are not allowed to vote, just the respectable people are allowed to vote. That makes Paul doing well in those states even more impressive.

[MelissaCato]

Yes it is a big mess over here especially in my county. What the aclu says, what the pa code book says, and what the county officials say are 3 different things. Meanwhile the public is confused and assume they lost the right to vote because of a bad check, a bag o weed or or or. I have made it my project to address this with the help of a lawyer to allow incarcerated individuals convicted of misdemeanors individuals under house arrest an individual held waiting for trial are allowed to vote with an absentee ballot. And of course all felons not incarcerated. My current problem is now the prisons not cooperating. It's 1 big mess.

[klamath]

I actually thought I already addressed both of those issues. I broke it up, not only by primary or caucus, but by which type of voters are allowed to vote in each primary and caucus. I also put the states in chronological order to address the bandwagon effect. I even showed the percentages from 2008 so people could compare progress between the cycles. Did I not do all of that? Is there something I am missing? Would you do something differently?
Sorry I missed the charts breaking the caucuses and primaries apart.
You can't do anything differently on the bandwagon effect as you don't know what the votes would have been. All we know is that RP's vote total would have gone up if he had been not dismissed as unviable after lossing the first three contests. We do know that RP's vote totals would have been higher in ND VT,ID,AK, NV and WA than your tabulted percentages if he wouldn't have been dismissed after the first three races. The #s very well may have rivaled NH in some of those later states.

[Keith and stuff]

We do know that RP's vote totals would have been higher in ND VT,ID,AK, NV and WA than your tabulted percentages if he wouldn't have been dismissed after the first three races. The #s very well may have rivaled NH in some of those later states.

The total number of votes in all of the states you mentioned would be higher, I agree.

The percentage of the total state population voting for Ron Paul compared wouldn't have come close to NH in ND, ID, AK, NV and WA, though. Those are caucus states. Even if Ron Paul won IA and NH, the amount of people that would have been willing to caucus for Ron Paul would still be low in those states because supporters for all candidate caucus at much lower rates than supporters for all candidate vote in primaries. Ron Paul may have done much better in the polls in those states. Ron Paul may have received a much higher percentage of the vote, but the percentage of the population voting for him in those caucus states would have never come close to NH levels.

Additionally, there is a pattern. A higher percentage of the population tends to vote in more important states. So, on average, the percentage of the total state population voting for the candidates is higher in the more important states. This is noticeable in the first 3 states as they were very important. The media claimed MI was becoming important so a lot of people voted there. Then the media claimed OH was somewhat important, so a lot of people voted there.

I agree with you on all fronts about VT, since it is a primary state.

[Keith and stuff]

Maryland 0.4% (0.3%)
Washington D.C. 0.09% (0.08%)

The percentage in both states slightly improved from 2008. Ron Paul 2nd in DC in 2012 even though one of the candidates, Newt Gingrich, lives very close to DC.

[Keith and stuff]

Wisconsin 4/3/12 1.5%

WI is #3 for open primary states and #4 overall.

Ron Paul had a large rally in Madison. He received 17% of the vote in the county Madison is located in, Dane County. That works out to 2% of the population of Dane County voting for Ron Paul in the WI Republican Primary in Dane County.

[CTRattlesnake]

The fact that South Carolina is third blows my mind

[Keith and stuff]

The fact that South Carolina is third blows my mind

There are a few reasons he did so well in SC. SC is one of the first states to vote so people there tend to take voting in the primary much more serious than people in most states. SC is an open primary state so it is extremely easy to vote in SC. Ron Paul had a massive boost in SC due to this success in NH. He received a 75% increase in support in the SC polls (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/entry.php?530-Paul%E2%80%99s-New-Hampshire-Bump) because of how well he did in NH. After the Ron Paul campaign saw the big boost in the polls, they decided to do a Youth for Ron Paul in SC. The majority of states didn't have a Youth for Ron Paul.

There are perhaps additional reasons. I don't claim to be an expert on Ron Paul's performance in SC.

[Keith and stuff]

Delaware 4/24/12 0.3%

Gingrich put a lot of work into DE but only received 27% of the GOP Primary vote.

[Keith and stuff]

Rhode Island 4/24/12 0.3%

Connecticut 4/24/12 0.2%

CT had the lowest percentage of the population voting for Ron Paul of any primary state.

[Keith and stuff]

Pennsylvania 4/24/12 0.8%

There is good news and bad news regarding the PA results. The largest percentage of the population voted for Ron Paul in PA out of all of the closed primary states. However, the percentage of the population voting for Ron Paul in PA went down 20% between 2008 and 2012.

[Keith and stuff]

New York 4/24/12 0.1%

As far as I can tell, many of the NYC area votes were never counted. Google and a couple other sources show around 95.3% of the votes in NY were counted. I added around 4.7% to Ron Paul's number and guessed that he received 26,119 votes.

Previously, it looked like CT had the lowest percentage of the population voting for Ron Paul of any primary state. However, the NY percentage is even lower.

More bad news for liberty lovers in NY. Both the percentage of the population voting for Ron Paul and the number of actual votes for Ron Paul in NY is down. Not only do people tend to not vote Republican in NY, but the people who do vote Republican are turning away from Ron Paul (or perhaps some of the former Ron Paul supporters died, moved out of the state, were put in jail, gave up on politics or don't like his message anymore.) Whatever the reasons, Ron Paul is just not popular with Republican voters in NY compared to pretty much everywhere else, even when looking at multiple factors.

[Keith and stuff]

Indiana 5/8/12 1.5%

North Carolina 5/8/12 1.1%

West Virgina 5/8/12 0.7%

In all 3 states, 4 candidates were listed on the ballot, though, only 2 candidates were still active candidates. Ron Paul took 2nd in 2 of the states and 3rd in WV.

Ron Paul's percentage of the total state voting population vote increased 3 fold in IN and over 2 fold in NC and WV.

[Keith and stuff]

Nebraska 5/15/12 1.0%
Oregon 5/15/12 0.9%
Arkansas 5/22/12 0.7%
Kentucky 5/22/12 0.5%
Texas 5/29/12 0.7%

OR is down from 2008. AR, KY and TX are up from 2008. KY is the lowest state in May.

[Keith and stuff]

Montana 6/5/12 2%
According to this measure, MT is the 3rd best state. Ron Paul improved in 2012 over his 1.7% in 2008.

South Dakota 6/5/12 0.8%
Ron Paul did worse in SD in 2012 than in 2008 when he had 1.2%.

New Mexico 6/5/12 0.5%
Of note, while Ron Paul was losing to Santorum in SD for much of the night, Ron Paul eventually beat Santorum in SD. The same cannot be said for NM where Santorum beat Ron Paul, even though Santorum ended his campaign almost 2 months ago.

California 6/5/12 0.4%

New Jersey 6/5/12 0.3%

[Keith and stuff]

There is only 1 state to go. After Utah votes on June 26th, I may make a map with colors, numbers and all that jazz.

[tremendoustie]

There is only 1 state to go. After Utah votes on June 26th, I may make a map with colors, numbers and all that jazz.

Cool idea! =)

[Keith and stuff]

Utah 6/26/12 0.4%

Utah was the final state to vote.

[Keith and stuff]

Google chart link http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chf=bg,s,EAF7FE&chs=440x220&cht=t&chco=FFFFFF,FF0000,FFFF00,00FF00&chld=AKALARAZCACOCTDEFLGAHIIAIDILINKSKYLAMAMDMEMIM NMOMSMTNCNDNENHNJNMNVNYOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVAVTWAW IWVWY&chd=t:100,70,70,70,100,100,100,100,70,70,100,70,70 ,70,45,100,70,100,70,100,100,45,100,70,100,25,45,1 00,45,1,100,70,100,100,45,70,70,70,100,45,70,70,70 ,100,45,25,100,45,70,100&chtm=usa
http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/2972/627chart.png
Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul in the Republican Primary or Republican Caucus, ranked highest to lowest by color:
Red 5% to 3% (NH)
Orange 2.9% to 2% (VT MT)
Yellow 1.9% to 1% (SC WI IN VA MI NC OH NE)
Light Green 0.9% to 0.5% (OR IA PA SC TN OK AR TX IL WV AL FL GA AZ MA KY ID MO NM)
Green less than 0.5% (ND AK MS CA MD UT DE RI NJ MN LA NV CT WA CO ME HI NY KS WY)

Sources:
Type "population of XXX" into Google to see the population source used for the states. Results quickly pop up from http://www.google.com/publicdata -- Source: U.S. Census Bureau
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2012_Republican_Party_presidential_ primaries for the vote results

[Keith and stuff]

I really started to think about the numbers and I noticed that a much larger percentage of the total state population voted for Ron Paul in New Hampshire in 2012 than in most other states. NH did this despite not having an open primary where all voters are allowed to vote in a Republican primary. In NH, only Republican and undeclared voters could vote in the Republican primary. In the 7 next best states (VT, MT, SC, WI, IN, VA, MI) all voters (even Democrats) were allowed to vote in the Republican primary. Lots and lots of Democrats did vote in Republican primaries.

In fact, the next highest state in the same category as NH was NC where 1.1% of the population voted for Ron Paul. Ron Paul received about 4 times as many votes as a percentage of the state population in NH as he did NC did.

Are there 4 times as many Ron Paul supporters as a percentage of the population in NH than in any other state? I don't know but it is something to think about.

[Keith and stuff]

I am so glad that I spent so many hours creating this wonderful thread. Thank you to everyone who contributed to this thread or gave me suggestions to make it better! It has already been featured on 7 blogs. It is great that our hard work is noticed and promoted around the web. We are great researchers :)

Ron Paul Forums (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/blog.php)
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/entry.php?698-Percentage-of-Total-State-Population-Voting-for-Ron-Paul-Compared

The Rand Paul Review (http://www.randpaulreview.com/)
http://www.randpaulreview.com/2012/07/nh-has-highest-percentage-of-population-that-voted-for-ron-paul/

New Hampshire Freedom (http://nhfreedom.wordpress.com/)
http://nhfreedom.wordpress.com/2012/06/30/percentage-of-state-population-voting-for-ron-paul-compared/

The Rise of the Right (http://www.riseoftheright.com/)
http://www.riseoftheright.com/2012/07/nh-has-highest-percentage-of-population-that-voted-for-ron-paul/

Free Keene (http://freekeene.com/)
http://freekeene.com/2012/07/03/nh-has-highest-percentage-of-population-voting-for-ron-paul/

Ron Paul Today (http://www.ronpaultoday.com/nh-has-highest-percentage-of-population-that-voted-for-ron-paul-free-keene/)
http://www.ronpaultoday.com/nh-has-highest-percentage-of-population-that-voted-for-ron-paul-free-keene/

Paulitics.US (http://paulitics.us/)
http://paulitics.us/ron-paul/nh-has-highest-percentage-of-population-that-voted-for-ron-paul-free-keene/

[Keith and stuff]

Oh cool, the information put together in this thread also made the front page of the online edition of the Independence Day edition (today's) of the Union Leader, the NH state paper. We saw the research first, as it was being gathered and put together :)

Union Leader
http://www.unionleader.com/article/20120704/AGGREGATION/120709862
http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/4886/july4unionleader.jpg

and

NewHampshire.com
http://www.newhampshire.com/article/20120704/AGGREGATION/120709862

[Keith and stuff]

If Rand Paul runs in 2016, how will this information change? Will New Hampshire still be at the top? What about VT, MT and SC? What percentage of the population in Kentucky will vote for Rand Paul? Will Rand Paul do better in Texas than Ron Paul did?

[Anti Federalist]

If Rand Paul runs in 2016, how will this information change? Will New Hampshire still be at the top? What about VT, MT and SC? What percentage of the population in Kentucky will vote for Rand Paul? Will Rand Paul do better in Texas than Ron Paul did?

Good questions.

I certainly figure Rand to do better down south, at least until the government propaganda organs get into full cry after him.

Shamity already fired a warning shot across his bow by endorsing Cheney over Enzi.

The South is death for any peace/non interventionist candidate.

[Krzysztof Lesiak]

Total state population or total voting population?

[helmuth_hubener]

Wyoming 2/29/12 0.08%

Wyoming didn't have a popular vote in 2008 so these numbers shouldn't be looked down on. This is progress.
Wyoming still didn't have a popular vote in 2012. The process was exactly the same in 2008 and 2012: County conventions decided delegates, and most or all of the conventions also had a totally non-binding straw poll.

Wyoming sent a couple RP people to Tampa. So we did pretty well in that sense. I do like what you've done here (even if the reason is just to transparently serve your agenda ;) ) and there's a benefit to knowing how many people voted for Ron, or at least it's interesting. But in the state of Wyoming, there is no real (binding) vote for Presidential nominee. A couple-few thousand GOP precinct leaders get together and vote on delegates to conventions. That's it.

The different processes -- caucus/convention vs. primary -- are just too different to be able to compare across them and say "this state is more Ron Paul-loving than this state".

[Keith and stuff]

Wyoming still didn't have a popular vote in 2012.
...
The different processes -- caucus/convention vs. primary -- are just too different to be able to compare across them and say "this state is more Ron Paul-loving than this state".

You are right. Thanks. The WY process is still extremely backwards. I'm not a fan of the HI process either.

The people were more likely to vote in primaries than caucuses. I broke it down in many different ways, though. If you want it broken down in another way, please let me know. If you do the math, I'll add it to the 1st or 2nd post.

[jjdoyle]

If Rand Paul runs in 2016, how will this information change? Will New Hampshire still be at the top? What about VT, MT and SC? What percentage of the population in Kentucky will vote for Rand Paul? Will Rand Paul do better in Texas than Ron Paul did?

It depends on who he is running against I bet. Having visited family recently, my uncle was talking politics and 2016, and he never once mentioned Rand's name. He is a Fox News watcher, and will vote according to who Fox News tells him is/isn't evil 24/7 in 2016. He is your typical Republican voter, and if/when (I think) Fox News pundits declare Rand Paul to be the same as Ron Paul, he will lose. Some say it won't happen, but considering the media tanked Ron Paul's campaign in 2012 on an issue from the early 90s, little will surprise me.