Maine Caucus Predictions and Results Page

[jllundqu]

I would like to start this threat to discuss the possibility of a RP win in MAINE and what a win/loss would mean for the campaign at large.

1. What are the chances of a 1st place finish in the Maine Caucus?

2. What would a 1st place finish mean?

3. What if we don't beat Romney in this particular contest?

I know about the whole "stealth delegate" strategy, so no need to go into depth there. I want to discuss, specifically, how we, the supporters, will react to these scenarios and go on to discuss the results as they are posted tomorrow evening.

[jllundqu]

I see INTRADE has him with a 25% chance...

blah

[ironj221]

I'm a little confused on his chance in Maine. All I hear about is how Ron Paul might win Maine but I haven't seen anyone state WHY they think that. Romney won last time wtih 50% and there have been no polls. Anyone care to explain why Paul is expected to even be close? I know watchthevote2012 has him winning with 500 votes in, but I really don't trust that all that much, should I?

[Jeffster]

I would like to start this threat

I knew it! I knew Ron Paul supporters were a threat!

;)

[CaptUSA]

I'm a little confused on his chance in Maine. All I hear about is how Ron Paul might win Maine but I haven't seen anyone state WHY they think that. Romney won last time wtih 50% and there have been no polls. Anyone care to explain why Paul is expected to even be close? I know watchthevote2012 has him winning with 500 votes in, but I really don't trust that all that much, should I?You may have answered your own question.

[thoughtomator]

let's wait for the results then discuss what it means... don't set up expectations that don't need to be there

[jllundqu]

I knew it! I knew Ron Paul supporters were a threat!

;)

You caught me! +rep

[Xenliad]

You may have answered your own question.

Were there polls for it last time?

[jllundqu]

I sincerely do hope that we can have one in the "win" column shortly. Are there any other states where we might be favored to take 1st place?

[Feelgood]

I would like to start this threat to discuss the possibility of a RP win in MAINE and what a win/loss would mean for the campaign at large.

1. What are the chances of a 1st place finish in the Maine Caucus?

2. What would a 1st place finish mean?

3. What if we don't beat Romney in this particular contest?

1. Zero

2. Nothing. It would be ignored and they would just take him out, so the second place becomes the winner.

3. We continue on as we have been trying to collect delegates. A loss here is generally expected after all.

Don't you listen to the MSM?

[alucard13mmfmj]

1. Low, now that Romney is up there doing his thing

2. If we win, media will ignore it. similar to 2008. BUT, Ron Paul can say, hey I won a state.

3. We march on and hope Ron has enough money to get to the finish line.

[CarpeArgentum]

Interesting tidbit: In 2008, 78 people caucused in Westbrook (Cumberland Co). We got 17 votes. This year, there were a little over 30, and we had around 17 still, filling the delegation.

http://www.pressherald.com/news/paul-supporters-dominate-westbrooks-gop-caucus_2012-02-06.html

Keep pushing. Turnout is LOW. We can win this if we turnout our supporters!

[sailingaway]

they are pulling a lot of dirty tricks like creating new caucuses on one day notice so residents have little hope of knowing about them and they can be swamped by proRomney types. But we will do our best.

[jbuttell]

1. Low, now that Romney is up there doing his thing

2. If we win, media will ignore it. similar to 2008. BUT, Ron Paul can say, hey I won a state.

3. We march on and hope Ron has enough money to get to the finish line.

How is winning a state anything like 2008?

[RonPaulwillWin]

I see INTRADE has him with a 25% chance...

blah

It's jumped to 38.9 as of 1:30 pst

[Xelaetaks]

It seems we may be in a bit of trouble with Romney going up there now. Wish we could counter this. A win even ignored by the media would be helpful I think.

[GraspingForPeace]

It seems we may be in a bit of trouble with Romney going up there now. Wish we could counter this. A win even ignored by the media would be helpful I think.

Paul is going up as well..

[rp2012win]

Chance of a paul win are remote at best. I can not believe that Romney would be seen within 500 miles of maine if he thought there was any chance of coming in 2nd. If he just blew the state off and did not hold a rally Friday and attend caucuses on saturday, the media would have gladly ignored a loss there and moved on. Not now. Romney wins by at least 5 or 10%.

[GraspingForPeace]

Chance of a paul win are remote at best. I can not believe that Romney would be seen within 500 miles of maine if he thought there was any chance of coming in 2nd. If he just blew the state off and did not hold a rally Friday and attend caucuses on saturday, the media would have gladly ignored a loss there and moved on. Not now. Romney wins by at least 5 or 10%.

Or you could see this as Romney panicking from losing three caucuses and hopping to the last state where there is a chance he could get first. But seriously, what is with the EXTREME pessimism now? We have a chance to win a state and you people come out of the woodwork.

[Gray Fullbuster]

Not gonna win.

[braane]

Up to 43% on intrade. It's going to come down to the wire :O. Those are the best types of wins. Close wins get a lot publicity. Even being on the losing end of a close race will probably be alright too.

[JJ2]

they are pulling a lot of dirty tricks like creating new caucuses on one day notice so residents have little hope of knowing about them and they can be swamped by proRomney types. But we will do our best.

I think that's mainly to steal delegates. Shouldn't have much of an effect on the popular vote (unless it's really close).

[AngryCanadian]

It's jumped to 38.9 as of 1:30 pst
Please enough of this intrade Nonsense.

Ron paul is going to do well in Manie as for Intrade its nothing more then people placing bets and there money on whose going to win so not a real prediction.
I have seen a thread result page where Ron paul is leading with 40%.

[QWDC]

If he wins Maine, the moneybomb needs to start at midnight Saturday night. Need to capitalize off the momentum.

[rp2012win]

Or you could see this as Romney panicking from losing three caucuses and hopping to the last state where there is a chance he could get first. But seriously, what is with the EXTREME pessimism now? We have a chance to win a state and you people come out of the woodwork.I believe the Romney team has info from the state GOP with the caucus results thus far and they are convinced he will win. Paul getting 2nd would not hurt near as bad if he busted his ass the final 72 hours and did all he could. Still, it might not have mattered much. Romney appears to be coasting to victory. 2nd place for Romney, with him attending several Maine caucuses on Saturday, would be a major blow to his candidacy. It would be a big news story. Romney team is confident.

[SCOTUSman]

Please enough of this intrade Nonsense.

Ron paul is going to do well in Manie as for Intrade its nothing more then people placing bets and there money on whose going to win so not a real prediction.
I have seen a thread result page where Ron paul is leading with 40%.

yea, but by only 27 votes...majority of the votes will come Saturday....

[RP Supporter]

Chance of a paul win are remote at best. I can not believe that Romney would be seen within 500 miles of maine if he thought there was any chance of coming in 2nd. If he just blew the state off and did not hold a rally Friday and attend caucuses on saturday, the media would have gladly ignored a loss there and moved on. Not now. Romney wins by at least 5 or 10%.

Not necessarily. Romney's lost the last three contests. If he loses a 4th, especially to unelectable Ron Paul :rolleyes: of all people, the media will gleefully tear into him.

At this point, he's pretty much in a tough position either way. He either has to try to ignore Maine and downplay it( which won't work) or desperately compete there and hope he can pull out a victory by getting enough establishment people out. A loss after he competes will be worse then ignoring the state, but Romney's in a position where he can't afford to lose another state and have the narrative be for half a month his declining strength. He has no choice but to make a play here.

As for my prediction, I expect Paul to win by mid to high single digits. And of course, the media will briefly credit him and then talk about how this proves Romney's a weak candidate.

"Will Santorum be able to capitalize on this?"

[GraspingForPeace]

Not gonna win.

I see that there are multiple trolls on this forum...

[AngryCanadian]

I see that there are multiple trolls on this forum...
Yeah i see that lately.

[GraspingForPeace]

I believe the Romney team has info from the state GOP with the caucus results thus far and they are convinced he will win. Paul getting 2nd would not hurt near as bad if he busted his ass the final 72 hours and did all he could. Still, it might not have mattered much. Romney appears to be coasting to victory. 2nd place for Romney, with him attending several Maine caucuses on Saturday, would be a major blow to his candidacy. It would be a big news story. Romney team is confident.

So... you think that there is collusion between Romney and GOP officials?

[braane]

Please enough of this intrade Nonsense.

Ron paul is going to do well in Manie as for Intrade its nothing more then people placing bets and there money on whose going to win so not a real prediction.
I have seen a thread result page where Ron paul is leading with 40%.

Intrade is no doubt fun to speculate on. People throw down with limited information, but I do think you would find a mild correlation between Intrade and results. Not because intrade has an effect on the results, but because the results and perceived results affect Intrade.

[The_Ruffneck]

I sincerely do hope that we can have one in the "win" column shortly. Are there any other states where we might be favored to take 1st place?
alaska , north dakota , washington

[ironj221]

I see that there are multiple trolls on this forum...

Actually, I quite like the "Not gonna win" comment. We keep raising expectations and then everyone's heart is always shattered the next day. I'd rather make everyone think we have no chance of winning and then blow it out of the water :)

[SCOTUSman]

I'm not going to predict and I hope none of us else predicts. We predicted first in Iowa and said it was impossible he finished 3rd....he finished 3rd. South Carolina the same except for 2nd/3rd. Nevada same 2nd...Minnesota predicted wins....

Then on the other hand you had people saying last in Nevada...last in Minnesota...3rd in New Hampshire...People are either overly optimistic or pessimistic. Let the cards fall where ever they do. Lets hope Ron wins.

[Gray Fullbuster]

I see that there are multiple trolls on this forum...


Realism =/= Trolling

I support Ron Paul and have been Phoning from Home and making ads nonstop for him to get votes.

I don't think he'll win it tomorrow though. Me having an opinion is not a troll.

Please be a bit more respectful before yelling "troll." :p

[SCOTUSman]

alaska , north dakota , washington

South Dakota too. The one and only poll (when bachman, perry, cain and huntsman were still in the race) had Paul leading. South Dakota is winner take all...would be huge.

[Brett85]

I see that there are multiple trolls on this forum...

Nobody here is a "troll."

[Student Of Paulism]

I disagree with some saying Romney needed to go here to make a play. Romney is still seen by many within the party as the 'eventual nom' and 'the guy to beat'. He is still a frontrunner and a state like ME is meaningless for his campaign to bother with. Newt and Rick arent even there and of all people, Rick should be in ME when you think about it. He has the least chance of winning the nom/beating obama and should be up there trying to squeeze out every win possible. This just proves how unimportant it is to them.

Let's be honest here, they know Ron has a good chance of winning it, so once again, Romney gets a memo to head up there and cut down Ron's momentum. He is the only one close enough to Ron to do it, which another reason why the others arent bothering, they have no chance to catch him. Why on earth would Romney waste his time in ME, when he could be in MI/AZ/OK where he needs to be competing with Rick? The guy takes out an ad buy there at the last minute in a meaningless state? (Meaningless for HIM, not Ron). Pfff yea ok :rolleyes: It is more obvious than ever he is just up there to fuck it all up, and since Ron and crew decided that taking 3 days vacation was a good idea and even let him get there BEFORE they did is even more inexplicable. Rumor has it now the GOP is trying to get Rick supporters to vote for Romney. Since it will be close, they will have all the leverage they need to 'screw with something' too. If he loses, msm has their excuse to use that Ron blew it by not being up there after MN.

It is really just a shame they are risking losing this state. No one else would have done this. His one chance to win and they just blow it off for days, and allow Mitt to don his Mighty Mouse cape to swoop in and save the day. So if they lose, the campaign has no one but themselves to blame. Had they been there all 3 days and did all they can, and lost, well at least you could say you did all you could, gave it all you had, etc. But losing now will only generate mass finger pointing, which in this case, would be more than justified.

[Brett85]

It is really just a shame they are risking losing this state. No one else would have done this. His one chance to win and they just blow it off for days, and allow Mitt to don his Mighty Mouse cape to swoop in and save the day. So if they lose, the campaign has no one but themselves to blame. Had they been there all 3 days and did all they can, and lost, well at least you could say you did all you could, gave it all you had, etc. But losing now will only generate mass finger pointing, which in this case, would be more than justified.

I agree completely. It's just sad that so many people here attack others simply for stating the obvious.

[seapilot]

think Ron Paul is going to win the straw poll. Already there is a rumor that Newt supporters are throwing their vote to RP, I imagine some Santorum supporters would too. They know they do not have a chance in Maine and it is a two man race there. They likely do not see RP as a threat as much as Romney going forward even with a win. Romney ends up losing again in Maine it overall helps Santorum going into the next contests and Gingrich as well.

[rp2012win]

CNN is reporting that Romney originally planned to only hold a Friday night event and not attend the caucuses. The fact he added the caucus events late sounds like a sign of weakness. I had thought Romney was going to Maine in a sign of strength, but it might just be that he is very worried. Not sure there is any other way to explaining why he added the saturday events.

[HarryBrowneLives]

CNN is reporting that Romney originally planned to only hold a Friday night event and not attend the caucuses. The fact he added the caucus events late sounds like a sign of weakness. I had thought Romney was going to Maine in a sign of strength, but it might just be that he is very worried. Not sure there is any other way to explaining why he added the saturday events.

Well, Romney ain't up there on a Saturday for his damn health that's for sure.;)

[MozoVote]

Even if Romney does win, I think the media will spin it that he was rattled. The other candidates are dictating the battles he must fight.

[RPit]

Alaska? I have high reservations that we'll win that. In my view not likely. This talk is just like in '08. We were supposed to win Alaska last time too.

Stop making predictions and work harder. Maybe then we won't have to make predictions but actually get some results ;)

[HarryBrowneLives]

Ron is speaking in Lewiston and Romney is speaking at a Portland caucus ... THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN MAINE ... GOTV here and we'll counter!

[RufusTDoofus]

So... you think that there is collusion between Romney and GOP officials?

The state party machinery is actively supporting Romney.

[Gimme Some Truth]

Don't know how reliable "Watch the vote" are but so far, with only 2 counties complete, Ron is winning 48% to Romney's 33%

Ron won both of the complete counties

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjQBwcCtzwG8dEdGUWZjS1FwTW8wTzVyOEJ6dmg4c Hc&authkey=CKT21ZkH&hl=en_US#gid=1

[Aratus]

Intrade has MITT ROMNEY and RON PAUL for FIRST PLACE SHARES in MAINE at an almost identical price right now.
Both are at roughly a $5.35 and at 6:45 EST a small wager secures you a ten spot. Intrade is easier to send money
into by wire transfer as opposed to most USA credit cards. the speculative bubble on mitt romney is being deflated
over at Intrade. a Ned Silver tweet changed the ballgame more than did Mr. Matt Drudge's headlines earlier. its close.

[RufusTDoofus]

When the votes are counted tonight I think we will see a map that looks a lot like Maine's last gubernatorial election. Maine elected a Tea Party-backed governor running against a strong independent and a weak democrat. The counties that put Paul LePage in office will be the same counties that go for RP this time. That's my prediction anyway.

[Suzu]

alaska , north dakota , washington
Missouri will have lots and lots of delegates ;)

[libertythor]

Missouri will have lots and lots of delegates ;)

Thanks for the info by pm! Hopefully that will add a few for one of the smaller lower-key counties. :)

[IcyPeaceMaker]

4 hours ago


Ron Paul takes commanding early lead in Maine Caucus

Maine – Texas Congressman Ron Paul has taken a commanding lead over his GOP rivals in the Maine Caucus heading into its final day on Saturday, hoping to extinguish Rick Santorum’s modest campaign winning streak and launch a comeback of his own in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

MORE: http://www.examiner.com/libertarian-in-denver/ron-paul-takes-commanding-early-lead-maine-caucus#ixzz1m7PDCcmN