"Ron Paul Secretly Won the Caucuses" by David Weigel (Slate)

[toast]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/02/08/ron_paul_secretly_won_the_caucuses.html?fb_ref=sm_ fb_like_blogpost&fb_source=home_oneline

They all laughed at Ron Paul. They all laughed when he took a stage in Minnesota, having come in a solid second place, and reminded the faithful of a "little thing called delegates!"

They were serious about it. Paul's people believe that they understand the delegate process, and that the media does not. There is truth here: The delegate process is confusing, and I assume that Paul supporters have used their four years of organizing and studying in a fruitful manner. In an e-mail to supporters, they try to get granular about what's occuring.



We are confident in gaining a much larger share of delegates than even our impressive showing yesterday indicates. As an example of our campaign’s delegate strength, take a look at what has occurred in Colorado:

- In one precinct in Larimer County, the straw poll vote was 23 for Santorum, 13 for Paul, 5 for Romney, 2 for Gingrich. There were 13 delegate slots, and Ron Paul got ALL 13.

- In a precinct in Delta County the vote was 22 for Santorum, 12 for Romney, 8 for Paul, 7 for Gingrich. There were 5 delegate slots, and ALL 5 went to Ron Paul.

- In a Pueblo County precinct, the vote was 16 for Santorum, 11 for Romney, 3 for Gingrich and 2 for Paul. There were 2 delegate slots filled, and both were filled by Ron Paul supporters.

- We are also seeing the same trends in Minnesota, Nevada, and Iowa, and in Missouri as well.


For this to stick, Paul's activists have to show up at the next votes -- small affairs, not much media, happening in March -- and control the delegate process. Then they have to show up at conventions and repeat it. This is actually doable.

[sailingaway]

I fail to see how it's secret, but whatever. That is why a 'real' campaign needs a ground game.

I understand Santorum is just now trying to put one into place for upcoming states, but he sure hasn't had one up to this point.

[Constitutional Paulicy]

I don't quite understand how the other campaigns aren't intelligent or capable enough to accomplish the same when it is no secret that this is the objective in the whole process.

[CJLauderdale4]

I know this is awesome news...but I keep hearing fellow pessimistic RP supporters (I recently converted) tell me that if RP ends up doing this and winning a brokered convention, they will try to penalize States that vote for Paul, based on some made-up rules, and strip his delegates. I'm not convinced...but I can't put it past the RNC..

[Miss Annie]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/02/08/ron_paul_secretly_won_the_caucuses.html?fb_ref=sm_ fb_like_blogpost&fb_source=home_oneline

They all laughed at Ron Paul. They all laughed when he took a stage in Minnesota, having come in a solid second place, and reminded the faithful of a "little thing called delegates!"

They were serious about it. Paul's people believe that they understand the delegate process, and that the media does not. There is truth here: The delegate process is confusing, and I assume that Paul supporters have used their four years of organizing and studying in a fruitful manner. In an e-mail to supporters, they try to get granular about what's occuring.



We are confident in gaining a much larger share of delegates than even our impressive showing yesterday indicates. As an example of our campaign’s delegate strength, take a look at what has occurred in Colorado:

- In one precinct in Larimer County, the straw poll vote was 23 for Santorum, 13 for Paul, 5 for Romney, 2 for Gingrich. There were 13 delegate slots, and Ron Paul got ALL 13.

- In a precinct in Delta County the vote was 22 for Santorum, 12 for Romney, 8 for Paul, 7 for Gingrich. There were 5 delegate slots, and ALL 5 went to Ron Paul.

- In a Pueblo County precinct, the vote was 16 for Santorum, 11 for Romney, 3 for Gingrich and 2 for Paul. There were 2 delegate slots filled, and both were filled by Ron Paul supporters.

- We are also seeing the same trends in Minnesota, Nevada, and Iowa, and in Missouri as well.


For this to stick, Paul's activists have to show up at the next votes -- small affairs, not much media, happening in March -- and control the delegate process. Then they have to show up at conventions and repeat it. This is actually doable.

YEA!!!!!!!!!! We are working towards a realistic and reachable goal! We have to hang in there and keep fighting the good fight! :D

[LiveForHonortune]

I know this is awesome news...but I keep hearing fellow pessimistic RP supporters (I recently converted) tell me that if RP ends up doing this and winning a brokered convention, they will try to penalize States that vote for Paul, based on some made-up rules, and strip his delegates. I'm not convinced...but I can't put it past the RNC..

If you remember what they did with our delegates in the last election (and I know you do), you'd see why...


It's BEST if our delegates just lay low as possible.

[Miss Annie]

I don't quite understand how the other campaigns aren't intelligent or capable enough to accomplish the same when it is no secret that this is the objective in the whole process.

I am just taking a wild guess here,..... that the other candidates do not have the wildly enthusiastic supporters that it takes to pull this off! :)

[cindy25]

the other campaigns do not expect a brokered convention. actual delegates have not mattered since 1976. this year they will.

[Feelgood]

If you remember what they did with our delegates in the last election (and I know you do), you'd see why...


It's BEST if our delegates just lay low as possible.

Yep. That shit still leaves a bad taste in my mouth to this day.

[Sean]

We need to inform people of what lies ahead for precinct delegates. I know when I went to the next level in Texas they had a nominating committee for who they were going to send to the state convention. A lot of people didn't know they took application before the county convention. So if your were new and unorganized you will get locked out so that insiders can go. The Paul delegates need to organize and push through their own slate.

[phill4paul]

Popular votes vs. electoral college. 'nuff said.

[Constitutional Paulicy]

What about this factor? Super delegates, Dr. Paul has none...... http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4726/republican-superdelegate-endorsement-list

[toast]

It's not really secret... but it might as well be. The understanding of most people I talk to seems to be that the president is chosen simply by direct popular vote. :eek: Surprisingly, many still think this even after 2000 when Gore won the popular vote but Bush got the delegates and won. To put it mildly, the American public is vastly uninformed. They are largely clueless as to the inner mechanics of how their own political process actually functions, so it's no wonder they are even more clueless when it comes to their lives and their children's lives being sold down the river, their currency being destroyed before their very eyes, and the blatant, unmistakable preparation for a major war, possibly World War III.

[Constitutional Paulicy]

It's not really secret... but it might as well be. The understanding of most people I talk to seems to be that the president is chosen simply by direct popular vote. :eek: Surprisingly, many still think this even after 2000 when Gore won the popular vote but Bush got the delegates and won. To put it mildly, the American public is vastly uninformed. They are largely clueless as to the inner mechanics of how their own political process actually functions, so it's no wonder they are even more clueless when it comes to their lives and their children's lives being sold down the river, their currency being destroyed before their very eyes, and the blatant, unmistakable preparation for a major war, possibly World War III.

Of course you are right about the average Americans understanding. The thing that surprises me is that the campaigns for the other candidates aren't on top of this game.

[helmuth_hubener]

I don't quite understand how the other campaigns aren't intelligent or capable enough to accomplish the same when it is no secret that this is the objective in the whole process.

This is not the ONLY objective. Momentum matters. Media coverage matters. If you win all these states but nobody knows it then the people in the subsequent states who like to vote for winners as if they were at the horse track, these worthless morons will not vote for you.

So it is important to win the straw polls, because that is all the slimedia is capable of covering.

The other answer is right too. The other campaigns couldnt duplicate this no matter how much they want to because no one is excited about them. Because they are not that great. Same reason ther is no radio station devoted to any of them.

[toast]

Of course you are right about the average Americans understanding. The thing that surprises me is that the campaigns for the other candidates aren't on top of this game.

Yes, that is odd. I imagine, as some others have suggested, that the RNC will try to pull something at the convention, or prior to the convention they will rewrite the rules in some way. There are not oblivious to what's happening, even if the public and most of the media are.

[TXcarlosTX]

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?359178-Become-Alternates-also!!!

I posted this thread last night. It was short but nobody commented on because alot of people on these forums dont know whats up. I was posting about Alternates because if you dont become a DELEGATE then become an alternate. WE CAN WIN THIS SHIT!!!

JUST PLAY DA GAME!!!!

[thesnake742]

I was elected as a delegate last night in MN. We took all the spots. I'm hoping that there is organization for planning for county conventions because I do not know what to expect beyond this point. I'd like some info on what happened to the delegates in 2008, too, if someone doesn't mind.

[idiom]

I know this is awesome news...but I keep hearing fellow pessimistic RP supporters (I recently converted) tell me that if RP ends up doing this and winning a brokered convention, they will try to penalize States that vote for Paul, based on some made-up rules, and strip his delegates. I'm not convinced...but I can't put it past the RNC..

That would be RNC Suicide. RP would 3rd party them into the gutter with that sort of treatment on a national stage.

[cindy25]

they have moved from a place at the convention, to Rand on the ticket, to Ron on the ticket

[sailingaway]

What about this factor? Super delegates, Dr. Paul has none...... http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4726/republican-superdelegate-endorsement-list

He has one. Just not identified.

[sailingaway]

Yes, that is odd. I imagine, as some others have suggested, that the RNC will try to pull something at the convention, or prior to the convention they will rewrite the rules in some way. There are not oblivious to what's happening, even if the public and most of the media are.

Yeah, and the AP is pretending delegates are already awarded which is so clearly untrue...

But that would mean the GOP wrote the election off. Ron wouldn't HAVE to run third party.

[Ekrub]

That would be RNC Suicide. RP would 3rd party them into the gutter with that sort of treatment on a national stage.

That's why RP doesn't rule out a third party. If they change the rules to screw us over, they can't point to an interview and say "look he lied to everyone, don't vote for him"

[Taco John]

I don't quite understand how the other campaigns aren't intelligent or capable enough to accomplish the same when it is no secret that this is the objective in the whole process.

Because it's a long forgotten aspect of our system after the days of media and the Beauty Contest primary. Television has picked our winner over the last half dozen decades. And in those days there haven't been insurgent campaigns to challenge the establishment because there hasn't been a communication medium for them to make it work.

[TER]

We must win Maine. We need a Moneybomb desperately!

[TER]

Campaign in Maine. We need a win in Maine!!!

[bluesc]

I don't quite understand how the other campaigns aren't intelligent or capable enough to accomplish the same when it is no secret that this is the objective in the whole process.

Romney doesn't care about the delegates. He bulldozes through a state, wins the vote and leaves it in a mess. Paul supporters rise from the rubble and become the actual delegates awarded.

For Romney it's about momentum leading into the huge primary states - places where we most likely can't pull something like this off. Newt and Santorum will be more cautious about things like this since their strategy isn't based on rolling through and locking up the nomination quickly. It takes real organization, a good grassroots, and some talent to pull something like this off successfully. I'm confident Doug Wead is contributing.

[TER]

This wasnt planned for. The elite are panicking. This was not in the plans at all!

The cry has grown stronger, the words heard more clearly, that it's no one but Doctor Ron Paul!

[RonPaulFever]

I still can't believe he's polling 2nd nationally.....my God....there is hope!

[PolicyReader]

We need to inform people of what lies ahead for precinct delegates. I know when I went to the next level in Texas they had a nominating committee for who they were going to send to the state convention. A lot of people didn't know they took application before the county convention. So if your were new and unorganized you will get locked out so that insiders can go. The Paul delegates need to organize and push through their own slate.
Quoted for truth.
Learn the rules in your area, network beforehand so you know who the Ron Paul delegates are without identifying yourself/each other at the convention(s) and Learn Robers Rules of Order

[lordindra3]

I TOLD YOU SANTORUM WINNING WAS A BLESSING IN DISGUISE! But no, everybody else was sour-pussing on me and saying how bad it was... Its good because the biggest way we lose with current standing is what happened in 08 and that is that McCain pretty much sweeps the entire country and there is no chance to even make it to the convention. Of course nothing is better than Paul winning states to boot, but Im just playing the cards we currently have.

[abruzz0]

AMAZING JOB!!!!!!!

[TER]

I still can't believe he's polling 2nd nationally.....my God....there is hope!

Ron has to be more specific with how the other candidates share many of the Big Government policies of Obama. He needs to specifically point out instances in which the others, by name, have been on the side of Obama in terms of an over reaching, over intrusive, over taxing federal government. He needs to clearly stand out against the rest of the field. I know he does this, but he needs to continue to improve so by Super Tuesday.

[TER]

And I need to go to sleep. Goodnight! :)

[BigByrd47119]

I TOLD YOU SANTORUM WINNING WAS A BLESSING IN DISGUISE! But no, everybody else was sour-pussing on me and saying how bad it was... Its good because the biggest way we lose with current standing is what happened in 08 and that is that McCain pretty much sweeps the entire country and there is no chance to even make it to the convention. Of course nothing is better than Paul winning states to boot, but Im just playing the cards we currently have.

Yea, supporters just want to see a win so it feels like we are winning...even though we already are (maybe/sort of/kind of) winning. If that even made any sense...

[Louis Vouid]

This happened 4 years ago too. It is not the big deal people make it out to be. Didn't succeed then and it won't now. People need to stop being so optimistic about things like this and start working to win a damn state!

[tbone717]

Ok, for those that don't get this, here is what has happened so far according to what I see on thegreenpapers.com. Bound delegates have been awarded from NH, SC, FL & NV. While NV still has their state convention, their state party rules will bind those delegates proportionally based on the caucus results.

So that would make the count as follows: Romney 73, Newt 29, Paul 8, Santorum 3, Huntsman 2

The delegates from IA, MN, & CO total 104 have not yet been awarded. So Paul could have 104 of those, or he could have 10 of those. We just do not know at this time. IA and MN delegates are not bound, CO delegates are a hybrid of being bound and unbound from what I gather (honestly I read the state rules twice and I am still not 100% sure of it)

Moving forward there are still 1644 bound delegates and 423 unbound delegates to be awarded. Which means that any of the four remaining candidates can secure enough bound delegates to win the nomination outright.

[bluesc]

Ok, for those that don't get this, here is what has happened so far according to what I see on thegreenpapers.com. Bound delegates have been awarded from NH, SC, FL & NV. While NV still has their state convention, their state party rules will bind those delegates proportionally based on the caucus results.

So that would make the count as follows: Romney 73, Newt 29, Paul 8, Santorum 3, Huntsman 2

The delegates from IA, MN, & CO total 104 have not yet been awarded. So Paul could have 104 of those, or he could have 10 of those. We just do not know at this time. IA and MN delegates are not bound, CO delegates are a hybrid of being bound and unbound from what I gather (honestly I read the state rules twice and I am still not 100% sure of it)

Moving forward there are still 1644 bound delegates and 423 unbound delegates to be awarded. Which means that any of the four remaining candidates can secure enough bound delegates to win the nomination outright.

One thing about the Nevada delegates. State rules dictate the bound/unbound rules, correct? So, when the delegates meet for the state convention, let's assume we have a majority of delegates, some of which are standing for other candidates.. Surely they can introduce a rule to release those delegates and make them unbound?

[splanky]

Ok, for those that don't get this, here is what has happened so far according to what I see on thegreenpapers.com. Bound delegates have been awarded from NH, SC, FL & NV. While NV still has their state convention, their state party rules will bind those delegates proportionally based on the caucus results.

So that would make the count as follows: Romney 73, Newt 29, Paul 8, Santorum 3, Huntsman 2

The delegates from IA, MN, & CO total 104 have not yet been awarded. So Paul could have 104 of those, or he could have 10 of those. We just do not know at this time. IA and MN delegates are not bound, CO delegates are a hybrid of being bound and unbound from what I gather (honestly I read the state rules twice and I am still not 100% sure of it)

Moving forward there are still 1644 bound delegates and 423 unbound delegates to be awarded. Which means that any of the four remaining candidates can secure enough bound delegates to win the nomination outright.

This is the information & analysis that ought to be stickied and updated, on its own thread, after every development. It's what I was looking for when I came here days ago and only lucked out that you posted it. Thanks for doing so.

[tbone717]

One thing about the Nevada delegates. State rules dictate the bound/unbound rules, correct? So, when the delegates meet for the state convention, let's assume we have a majority of delegates, some of which are standing for other candidates.. Surely they can introduce a rule to release those delegates and make them unbound?

Yeah I think so, I read their rules again and it appears that way. Honestly my head is spinning from reading this stuff.

As far as I see it, we are spending way too much time pondering the implications of what is pretty much a long shot possibility. My guess is that someone will emerge from Super Tuesday as the presumptive nominee, unless Paul can pose a serious challenge and win a few states and make a new contest out of this.

[tbone717]

Before I go be mindful that a deal can be struck before the first vote. Let's say for example that Romney is 100 delegates shy of the 1144 needed to win on the first ballot. Santorum and/or Newt can communicate with their unbound delegates on the floor and ask them to support Romney instead of themselves so that a brokered convention is avoided. Additionally, if they know they have enough bound delegates on the floor that are reliable enough to vote for Romney they could withdraw and release their bound delegates enabling them to vote for Romney.

The system was set up to avoid exactly what we are hypothesizing that we can pull off. And for good reason. The GOP nominee should be someone who has been victorious throughout the primary and caucus process, not someone that infiltrates the process. Think of how pissed off we would be if Paul was winning state after state, but then we got to the convention and through a "stealth delegate" process a brokered convention was forced and Newt (who won only one contest) became the nominee.

[Liberty74]

I don't quite understand how the other campaigns aren't intelligent or capable enough to accomplish the same when it is no secret that this is the objective in the whole process.

Because previous elections the nominee won outright. This time around, many states changed their rules from winner take all to propotional delegates creating a scenario where their could be a brokered convention. If and only if that happens would Paul benefit.

Maybe the other campaigns are in the mentality that there will be an outright winner of delegates, hence no need to play the behind the scene delegate game.

[tbone717]

Because previous elections the nominee won outright. This time around, many states changed their rules from winner take all to propotional delegates creating a scenario where their could be a brokered convention. If and only if that happens would Paul benefit.

Maybe the other campaigns are in the mentality that there will be an outright winner of delegates, hence no need to play the behind the scene delegate game.

It is a stretch though to place our hopes on the possibility that a bunch of people on a forum understand the delegate process better than the professionals that are working for the other campaigns.