Ben Swann investigates the Nevada Caucuses

[dillo]

http://www.facebook.com/BenSwannRealityCheck

I really like this guy more and more. Apparently our people just didn't show up to vote in Nevada. Stop blaming the campaign people, if people don't show up to vote thats hardly their fault

[gerryb]

We knew this already.

The deniers will keep denying though, and claim fraud, ignoring the fact it is impossible to commit fraud without getting caught in a caucus, if even 1 person at each precinct cared about the results.

[swissaustrian]

Talked directly to the head of the Paul campaign in Nevada. Carl Bunce tells me that so far, there is no apparent voter fraud in Nevada. Bunce says

"Yes we had the numbers to win easily around 23,000+ ID'd, but Dr. Paul supporters did not show up. I have people I consider good friends that said they just did not make it....we got 3rd because we did not Turn-out."

Part of the reason for the low turnout could also be the lack of understanding of the caucus process... i'll explain the mess in Nevada and why the delegate process may be very bad for Rick Santorum and very good for Ron Paul tonight.

Seriously, that's bad campaigning...

[Indy Vidual]

There were also reports of blatant fraud, and/or "mistakes."

[Student Of Paulism]

Seriously, that's bad campaigning...

Yep, seen that earlier, and just couldn't believe my eyes reading that. Really sucks to know we could have won or taken a very close second if people just came out. That is a huge difference compared to the actual turn out. People must really love their sleep in NV :rolleyes: The 9am start time definitely didn't help either, but with such a critical election and all the issues going on, it's just proof people don't give a shit enough....therefore, why should our lovely government give a shit either. Hell, we should just vote for Obama, same outcome, right? Blah...

Oh and his comment about fraud is only being said to keep things in order. He works for the campaign, and is just keeping in line with Paul's character of not complaining about stuff like that. We all know way there way too many things that went on which were quite outrageous.

[Diurdi]

We knew this already.

The deniers will keep denying though, and claim fraud, ignoring the fact it is impossible to commit fraud without getting caught in a caucus, if even 1 person at each precinct cared about the results. No one says it's impossible. It's just that you look really bad when yelling "fraud" after a disappointment if you only have vague evidence at best.

Also, Ben Swann is awsome.

[tfurrh]

There was even a Youth For Ron Paul GOTV effort in NV, Vegas Vacation with Ron Paul. This just isn't adding up. All of those phone calls made?

[cdc482]

That's a terrible reason to let the wars continue. Shame on those who didn't show up.

Never again.

[emazur]

Nevada looks better when you compare % of votes instead instead of # of votes:
http://i.imgur.com/EQg0A.png

[devil21]

While his assertion may be correct, it would also imply that Ron's competitors had no turnout issues and every one of their supporters showed up to vote. Hardly realistic. A failure to turn out all ID'd voters plagues every campaign, not just ours. They do tend to have an upper hand due to the age of their voters but Im not going to blame simple turnout for Paul's 3rd place finish when it's obvious that other campaigns don't get all their ID'd voters out either.

[Article V]

While his assertion may be correct, it would also imply that Ron's competitors had no turnout issues and every one of their supporters showed up to vote. Hardly realistic. A failure to turn out all ID'd voters plagues every campaign, not just ours. They do tend to have an upper hand due to the age of their voters but Im not going to blame simple turnout for Paul's 3rd place finish when it's obvious that other campaigns don't get all their ID'd voters out either.True.

Plus, I don't think our ID'd voters are all actually Ron Paul supporters. Have you ever called the GOTV supposed ID'd voters? Maybe 25% of the few hundred I called actually said they were for Ron Paul. Many made it quite clear in no uncertain terms that they were fundamentally AGAINST Ron Paul.

If we're really relying on the campaign's ID'd voters, then we have a serious problem; because someone at the campaign is being dangerously overgenerous in their estimations. Aren't we supposed to be conservatives? So why are they being so liberal with their numbers?
Don't over-estimate; that gives us false confidence and false hope. Do underestimate; that will force us to fight harder and buoy our spirits when we exceed expectations. This is campaign management 101.

[wsc321]

We knew this already.

The deniers will keep denying though, and claim fraud, ignoring the fact it is impossible to commit fraud without getting caught in a caucus, if even 1 person at each precinct cared about the results.

1) Prove it.

If I voted in Clark County in a caucus location and had an accurate tally of the Ron Paul votes that were cast at my location, how can I verify they were properly credited to my location/precinct? I'm looking at http://www.nvgopcaucus.com/results - don't see the granular data. (Compare it to http://iowacaucus.com/results/, which seems detailed enough to verify).

2) I think your attitude is arrogant on this matter. We're all on the same team here - why are you insulting fellow supporters of the Liberty movement by calling them "deniers" and accusing them of willfully ignoring facts? You might consider giving people the benefit of the doubt that they are asking honest questions.

[gerryb]

1) Prove it.

If I voted in Clark County in a caucus location and had an accurate tally of the Ron Paul votes that were cast at my location, how can I verify they were properly credited to my location/precinct? I'm looking at http://www.nvgopcaucus.com/results - don't see the granular data. (Compare it to http://iowacaucus.com/results/, which seems detailed enough to verify).

2) I think your attitude is arrogant on this matter. We're all on the same team here - why are you insulting fellow supporters of the Liberty movement by calling them "deniers" and accusing them of willfully ignoring facts? You might consider giving people the benefit of the doubt that they are asking honest questions.

1) At the link you provided, do you see the big text that says "To see the precinct-by-precinct results, click here."?

2) Ignorance is not an excuse for stupidity =). Questioning is one thing, making unfounded accusations and claims of fraud is another. I saw one single report of the caucus count not matching the state reported tally(Which is amazing considering how much data was transferred/transcribed, probably mostly by cell phone and human ears) , and the GOP Chairman of that caucus got it resolved.

[Philosophy_of_Politics]

People are forgetting something pertaining to this.

Polls opened 9:00AM.
They closed 10:30AM.

The time-frame interfered a lot with our voting block.

[PolicyReader]

People are forgetting something pertaining to this.

Polls opened 9:00AM.
They closed 10:30AM.

The time-frame interfered a lot with our voting block.
This is what I'd cry foul about most. Not that I'm saying it was a breach of the rules but it doesn't have to "brake the law" to fail at being evenhanded or representative of the voting populace. It's the same type of 'by the letter of the law' practice as how both parties are toying with redistricting. (And there I'll stop so as not to go off topic :P )

[Wolfgang Bohringer]

We should be praising the Nevada Republican Party, the other campaigns, Carl, and all Ron Paul supporters who were involved in the running of the balloting and counting. I have not heard of 1 case of anybody accusing anybody of doing anything shady. There was a lot of incomptence and mistakes, but it sounds like everybody did the right thing and got the votes counted as fairly as possible.

I'm amazed at all of this B.S. about fraud that is all over the Ron Paul-o-sphere. This is playing right into the hands of the elite who will shut you all up when they take the caucuses away and give you primaries with MACHINES.

They did the same thing with the hanging chads in Florida in 2000. They made a big joke of it and gave everybody completely un-auditable MACHINES.

Spending 2 days auditing 30,000 votes with all of the campaigns involved is exactly the kind of fairness we want. Its something to be proud of.

[gerryb]

We should be praising the Nevada Republican Party, the other campaigns, Carl, and all Ron Paul supporters who were involved in the running of the balloting and counting. I have not heard of 1 case of anybody accusing anybody of doing anything shady. There was a lot of incomptence and mistakes, but it sounds like everybody did the right thing and got the votes counted as fairly as possible.

I'm amazed at all of this B.S. about fraud that is all over the Ron Paul-o-sphere. This is playing right into the hands of the elite who will shut you all up when they take the caucuses away and give you primaries with MACHINES.

They did the same thing with the hanging chads in Florida in 2000. They made a big joke of it and gave everybody completely un-auditable MACHINES.

Spending 2 days auditing 30,000 votes with all of the campaigns involved is exactly the kind of fairness we want. Its something to be proud of.

THIS!!!!!

[VegasPatriot]

1) At the link you provided, do you see the big text that says "To see the precinct-by-precinct results, click here."?

2) Ignorance is not an excuse for stupidity =). Questioning is one thing, making unfounded accusations and claims of fraud is another. I saw one single report of the caucus count not matching the state reported tally(Which is amazing considering how much data was transferred/transcribed, probably mostly by cell phone and human ears) , and the GOP Chairman of that caucus got it resolved.

I just tried to verify my precinct results and the individual county precinct links do not work. I called the local GOP and they said, "they have been working on the webpage and it should be working in a couple of days; if not call back Friday".:( So it looks like it will take us a little more time in order to verify the vote.

At my caucus location things were very disorganized, but as of today I have yet to see any proof of fraud. One thing I am sure of... having the caucus on SuperBowl weekend hurt attendance, especially here in Vegas. I know of several RP supporters that had to work and were unable to attend.

Also, every time I got a call from campaign headquarters... I got three more calls shortly afterwords. I suspect the list of 22,000 had many duplicates.

[wsc321]

1) At the link you provided, do you see the big text that says "To see the precinct-by-precinct results, click here."?

2) Ignorance is not an excuse for stupidity =). Questioning is one thing, making unfounded accusations and claims of fraud is another. I saw one single report of the caucus count not matching the state reported tally(Which is amazing considering how much data was transferred/transcribed, probably mostly by cell phone and human ears) , and the GOP Chairman of that caucus got it resolved.

1) I admit I've surprised myself for missing that link. My mistake.

[Wolfgang Bohringer]

Try this for precinct by precinct results. I don't know how they relate to the official results:

https://www.google.com/fusiontables/DataSource?docid=1WbvfXblZx6Xz2M0KtgycNybvYu8e1Cyg 5rfFeAc&hl=en_US

[VegasPatriot]

Try this for precinct by precinct results. I don't know how they relate to the official results:

https://www.google.com/fusiontables/DataSource?docid=1WbvfXblZx6Xz2M0KtgycNybvYu8e1Cyg 5rfFeAc&hl=en_US

Thanks, but it's not a complete list... my precinct was not there.

[gerryb]

Thanks, but it's not a complete list... my precinct was not there.

Yeah, the ones I looked at worked.. it really shouldn't take this long to get data posted. You should be able to call the state GOP and get the results from them though.. and the campaign should also have the data.

In a perfect world, we would have a precinct captain at each caucus to record the results, and report them to the campaign.

The campaign would have folks verifying the results with the data as it was reported by the GOP. They certified their results, so the data is there for the campaign.

[Keith and stuff]

Seriously, that's bad campaigning...

"Yes we had the numbers to win easily around 23,000+ ID'd, but Dr. Paul supporters did not show up. I have people I consider good friends that said they just did not make it....we got 3rd because we did not Turn-out."

All of those 23,000 were not Ron Paul supporters. I know. We did when the delegates, though. However, the first time they vote in the national convention, they have to mostly vote for Romney. After that, the vast majority will vote for Paul.

[J_White]

lay this to rest and get to work.
there is a lot of new support for Paul, and dont expect them to be as hard core as the supporters who have been for Paul for the past 2-3- or 4 yrs.
we need to keep pushing and motivating them to vote for Paul.

[Working Poor]

Maybe 25% of the few hundred I called actually said they were for Ron Paul.


So 25% would have put us in 2nd place right?