Libertea Party
02-07-2012, 11:18 AM
Found this gold buried here (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d9417aac-26cd-4fb3-82e6-e31531a70318). I think this is where we have the best hopes of bringing into the GOP liberty leaning supporters. I've tallied the categories where there's a major swing and will analyze it below. In this poll Romney actually does 2 points worse than Ron Paul. Ron Paul goes up by 1% while Obama goes down by 1%. A swing of 2% and 1% more undecided. Ron Paul loses 48-37 while Romney loses 49-36. Not a great picture overall but the crosstabs where really where it gets interesting.
Seems like Ron Paul vs Obama is more electable than Romney vs Obama in these major categories:
Males: Paul goes up by 9% and Obama goes down by 4%. A swing of 13% compared to the the Obama/Romney numbers
AGE 18-34: Paul goes up by 8% and Obama goes down by 6%. A swing of 14%
Cell Phone respondents: Paul goes up by 6% and Obama goes down by 5%. A swing of 11%
Democrats: Paul goes up by 4% and Obama goes down by 4%. A swing of 8%
Independents: A little surprised here. Paul only goes up by 4% and Obama down by 1%. A swing of only 5%.
Tea Party: Paul goes up by 9% and Obama goes down by 2%. A swing of 11%
Liberals: Paul goes up by 11% and Obama goes down by 9%. A whopping swing of 20%. This is his biggest impact category.
High School education: Paul goes up by 3% Obama goes down by 5%. A swing of 8%
Middle Income (40K to 80K): Paul goes up by 5% Obama goes down by 4%. A swing of 9%
Remember this is in a race that he loses to Obama 48% to 37%. About the same as Mitt.
Now the loss categories:
Female: A loss of 7% by Paul a gain of 1% by Obama. A swing of 8% verses Romney/Obama
Age: Surprisingly no real big negatives. The biggest among the 50-64 with a loss of 2% by Paul and a gain of 2% by Obama. A swing of 4%
Republican: The magnitude did surprise me (I'll give my analysis below). A loss of 12% by Paul and a gain of 6% by Obama. A swing of 18% with 6% more undecided.
Conservative: Again a loss of 12% by Paul but a gain of only 1% by Obama. A swing of 13% with 11% more undecided.
Some College: Not sure what to make of it but a loss of 3% by Paul and a gain of 4 by Obama. A swing of 7%
Income: Nothing too major of a net loss here. The biggest the 80K+ with a loss of 4% for Paul and a gain of 1% for Obama. A swing of 5%.
Analysis:
I think the glaring one here is the Republicans and conservatives supposedly leaving Ron Paul and either voting for Obama or sitting on the sidelines. It should be noted that all the other candidates compared to Romney lose 8% or more in Republican support.
I just think is incredibly far-fetched to believe this will happen in a general election . Are GOPer's really going to vote for Obama because he supports using their money to nation-build and expand Obamacare versus the guy who wants to cut their taxes and eliminate Obamacare? I think after a GOP convention this GOP/conservative static disappears like it did for Rand Paul in Kentucky. It'd be Rand Paul vs Jack Conway part II with Obama having a horrible, horrible record even compared to Jack Conway.
If re-weighted to the actual support he'd probably get which is 90% of the GOP vote in 2008 in Minnesota where McCain lost by 10 points the total vote would go up by 3.68%. This would bring Ron Paul to 40.6% and (I'm guessing Obama down to 47%) as a starting point in the general election with 15% undecided.
Now the Female vote is the second largest swing away from Ron Paul. A competitive general election in Minnesota like 2004 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/MN/P/00/epolls.0.html) means a 6 point loss to a Democrat rather than the 18% SUSA says Paul will lose to Obama by. I don't think a OB-GYN who promises to bring home Husbands, Sons, Brothers, Sisters, Daughters and Fathers saving them from maiming and death before touching the Domestic welfare state will lose much votes in a general election. Even with Paul losing the traditional 6 points to a Democrat. That's a 6.12% swing in a General election bringing Ron Paul to 46.72%.
The remaining undecideds would probably vote strictly on the economy and that's great news for the guy who did this in the 2000's:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLm7Sw402xE
And really bad news for the guy who did this in the 2000's:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-_HlpZ8azA
Seems like Ron Paul vs Obama is more electable than Romney vs Obama in these major categories:
Males: Paul goes up by 9% and Obama goes down by 4%. A swing of 13% compared to the the Obama/Romney numbers
AGE 18-34: Paul goes up by 8% and Obama goes down by 6%. A swing of 14%
Cell Phone respondents: Paul goes up by 6% and Obama goes down by 5%. A swing of 11%
Democrats: Paul goes up by 4% and Obama goes down by 4%. A swing of 8%
Independents: A little surprised here. Paul only goes up by 4% and Obama down by 1%. A swing of only 5%.
Tea Party: Paul goes up by 9% and Obama goes down by 2%. A swing of 11%
Liberals: Paul goes up by 11% and Obama goes down by 9%. A whopping swing of 20%. This is his biggest impact category.
High School education: Paul goes up by 3% Obama goes down by 5%. A swing of 8%
Middle Income (40K to 80K): Paul goes up by 5% Obama goes down by 4%. A swing of 9%
Remember this is in a race that he loses to Obama 48% to 37%. About the same as Mitt.
Now the loss categories:
Female: A loss of 7% by Paul a gain of 1% by Obama. A swing of 8% verses Romney/Obama
Age: Surprisingly no real big negatives. The biggest among the 50-64 with a loss of 2% by Paul and a gain of 2% by Obama. A swing of 4%
Republican: The magnitude did surprise me (I'll give my analysis below). A loss of 12% by Paul and a gain of 6% by Obama. A swing of 18% with 6% more undecided.
Conservative: Again a loss of 12% by Paul but a gain of only 1% by Obama. A swing of 13% with 11% more undecided.
Some College: Not sure what to make of it but a loss of 3% by Paul and a gain of 4 by Obama. A swing of 7%
Income: Nothing too major of a net loss here. The biggest the 80K+ with a loss of 4% for Paul and a gain of 1% for Obama. A swing of 5%.
Analysis:
I think the glaring one here is the Republicans and conservatives supposedly leaving Ron Paul and either voting for Obama or sitting on the sidelines. It should be noted that all the other candidates compared to Romney lose 8% or more in Republican support.
I just think is incredibly far-fetched to believe this will happen in a general election . Are GOPer's really going to vote for Obama because he supports using their money to nation-build and expand Obamacare versus the guy who wants to cut their taxes and eliminate Obamacare? I think after a GOP convention this GOP/conservative static disappears like it did for Rand Paul in Kentucky. It'd be Rand Paul vs Jack Conway part II with Obama having a horrible, horrible record even compared to Jack Conway.
If re-weighted to the actual support he'd probably get which is 90% of the GOP vote in 2008 in Minnesota where McCain lost by 10 points the total vote would go up by 3.68%. This would bring Ron Paul to 40.6% and (I'm guessing Obama down to 47%) as a starting point in the general election with 15% undecided.
Now the Female vote is the second largest swing away from Ron Paul. A competitive general election in Minnesota like 2004 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/MN/P/00/epolls.0.html) means a 6 point loss to a Democrat rather than the 18% SUSA says Paul will lose to Obama by. I don't think a OB-GYN who promises to bring home Husbands, Sons, Brothers, Sisters, Daughters and Fathers saving them from maiming and death before touching the Domestic welfare state will lose much votes in a general election. Even with Paul losing the traditional 6 points to a Democrat. That's a 6.12% swing in a General election bringing Ron Paul to 46.72%.
The remaining undecideds would probably vote strictly on the economy and that's great news for the guy who did this in the 2000's:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLm7Sw402xE
And really bad news for the guy who did this in the 2000's:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-_HlpZ8azA