Siena College Poll - New York GOP Primary / Ron Paul at 16%

[tsai3904]

New York (http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY_February_2012_Poll_Release_FINAL.pdf)
1/29 - 2/1
Unknown # of Registered Republicans

Romney 31%
Gingrich 29%
Paul 16%
Santorum 13%


New York's primary is on April 24 and is closed to registered Republicans only.

[CTRattlesnake]

I live next to New York, and I think he has some support there. Most people surrounding NYC are romney wall street people though.

[Paulite]

finally my state gets to vote..

[MichaelD]

I would not worry about this poll too much, none of the campaigns have done any advertising in NY. Lots of time to win people over, focus on the rural areas. We can win NY, if Ron Paul visited Binghamton NY and Elmira.

[ohgodno]

Was driving back into the city today on the NY Thruway and was happy to see an overpass with one HUGE Ron Paul sign and two smaller ones flanking it.

[RonPaulRules]

I live on Long Island. Lets win this!!!!!!!

[Darthbrooklyn]

I live next to New York, and I think he has some support there. Most people surrounding NYC are romney wall street people though.

I work on Wall St. and will never vote for Romney

[kathy88]

I would not worry about this poll too much, none of the campaigns have done any advertising in NY. Lots of time to win people over, focus on the rural areas. We can win NY, if Ron Paul visited Binghamton NY and Elmira.

Ithaca, Syracuse and Rochester as well :)

[The Binghamton Patriot]

I live on long island and as far as I know, a few of us have some big plans for signs-specifically on the LIE and on some major parkways. We wanna work with all the local area colleges with the GOTV. By the time NY rolls around, we can def WIN. No, I am not joking-

dowling
stony brook
touro
st johns
malloy
york college
Southampton
Baruch


(any more please let me know and I will add them)

I am personally contacting the libertarian and republican college groups to see if they would be willing to help with the GOTV effort. Please let me know if anyone here wants to help out with signs/D2D stuff. It's going to get real intense in march, and I don't plan to start working FT until at least April 1st. We have over a month here in NY and we gotta work together to get AS MANY REPUBS out at possible. This primary is closed, lots of rockefeller repubs here. We WILL dominate upstate. No doubt about that. We gotta win the wall street and industrial types on the island, which we CAN. We just gotta work hard.

[PreDeadMan]

I live on Long Island. Lets win this!!!!!!!

cool so do i, what town are you in?

[PreDeadMan]

I live on long island and as far as I know, a few of us have some big plans for signs-specifically on the LIE and on some major parkways. We wanna work with all the local area colleges with the GOTV. By the time NY rolls around, we can def WIN. No, I am not joking-

dowling
stony brook
touro
st johns
malloy
york college
Southampton
Baruch


(any more please let me know and I will add them)

I am personally contacting the libertarian and republican college groups to see if they would be willing to help with the GOTV effort. Please let me know if anyone here wants to help out with signs/D2D stuff. It's going to get real intense in march, and I don't plan to start working until at least April 1st. We have over a month here in NY and we gotta work together to get AS MANY REPUBS out at possible. We WILL dominate upstate. No doubt about that. We gotta win the wall street and industrial types on the island, which we CAN. We just gotta work hard.

i dunno where on long island you are but southern state and wantagh state parkway would be cool to have signage.

[CTRattlesnake]

I work on Wall St. and will never vote for Romney


You're an exception, most of the wall street guys I know around here are firmly in romney camp.

[juvanya]

I would not worry about this poll too much, none of the campaigns have done any advertising in NY. Lots of time to win people over, focus on the rural areas. We can win NY, if Ron Paul visited Binghamton NY and Elmira.

Not worry about it? This is a great floor to be standing on!

New York is proportional (unless 50%+) and has 92 delegates. Thats 14 delegates to start with. This is definitely a state to go after, altho expensive. And its closed. But with wins in Maine and Vermont, its not impossible to even get the 50%.

[JimInNY]

I think RP polled at 5% in NY in 08.

[ByeByeBernanke]

I live next to New York, and I think he has some support there. Most people surrounding NYC are romney wall street people though.

You'd be surprised, Wall Street doesn't all vote in unison. Sure the guys at the very top are going to vote for the guy that best helps them keep their power, but the majority of the "troops" at the banks have a front row seat to this con of a system. Overwhelming majority I would say favor true free markets.

I work at a large bank and check out my username.

[CTRattlesnake]

You'd be surprised, Wall Street doesn't all vote in unison. Sure the guys at the very top are going to vote for the guy that best helps them keep their power, but the majority of the "troops" at the banks have a front row seat to this con of a system. Overwhelming majority I would say favor true free markets.

I work at a large bank and check out my username.

You'd know better than I would. Hopefully you can convert a few to our side.

[Dublin4Paul]

Nice, can't wait to vote for the good doctor when it's New York's turn. Does anyone know if it is too late to get more people in New York to switch parties and vote in this thing?

[The Binghamton Patriot]

i dunno where on long island you are but southern state and wantagh state parkway would be cool to have signage.

i live in mastic beach now

i grew up in sayville

may be moving to the city/binghamton real shortly.

lets connect at some point, PM me. we can discuss strategy and what we're gonna do. I have a tentative date of march 1st to start getting serious. I'm talking SIGNS everywhere. we can do D2D but we gotta reach out to the schools for volunteers.

[The Binghamton Patriot]

Nice, can't wait to vote for the good doctor when it's New York's turn. Does anyone know if it is too late to get more people in New York to switch parties and vote in this thing?

deadline to register was last october. The republican party of NY is about as crony and crooked as NV and IA.

[Lavitz]

I think RP polled at 5% in NY in 08.


Not worry about it? This is a great floor to be standing on!

New York is proportional (unless 50%+) and has 92 delegates. Thats 14 delegates to start with. This is definitely a state to go after, altho expensive. And its closed. But with wins in Maine and Vermont, its not impossible to even get the 50%.

Yeah, I'm honestly surprised we're polling this well here. But the delegate allocation is slightly more complicated than that: http://www.weeklystandard.com/sites/all/files/docs/2012%20RNC%20Delegate%20Summary.pdf (page 19)

Since Albany failed (big surprise) to finalize the new congressional districts, there will be 58 delegates chosen according to congressional district results and 34 at-large delegates, chosen according to the statewide results. Unfortunately, because the districts weren't finalized, this means we won't get any delegates from a congressional district unless we win it outright, in which case we get 2. I don't know enough about the upstate districts to know how likely it is that we can pull that off.

But I do think that with poll numbers this good, we should at least attempt to get 20% statewide, since then we get 6 or 7 of the at-large delegates. If we get less than 20%, we get nothing.

[cstarace]

Sounds like it's time to start kicking it into high gear in my home state

[jonhowe]

I work on Wall St. and will never vote for Romney

I just started on Wall St and a LOT of my coworkers are warming to Ron Paul (what a coincidence that started when I got there... hmm...).
Sadly, most who are are registered Dems, and it's WAY too late to change parties now. I switched at the last possible day from Libertarian to Dem, I think it was in October!

All that being said, I'm going to get every last supporter I can to the polls in April.

[Heman5up]

Yes, a lot of wall street guys, especially the younger ones, are definitely warming up to Ron Paul.

[narrowphoenix]

Home of the bailouts? Let's not get ahead of ourselves people.......

[tsai3904]

It is too late to switch parties in New York, but you can still get people who are not registered to vote to register. The deadline for new registrations is March 30.

[freejack]

New Hyde Park here. Ordered several bumper stickers for friends and coworkers two months ago and they never arrived. This was my second order that never arrived. It's a shame because this is free advertising for the campaign. Guess I'll order again. Third time's the charm.

[Syntax]

I missed my chance to switch parties in NY :(. It's ridiculous how early they set the registration deadline, and a good way for them to limit the vote to mostly establishment republicans.

[AngryCanadian]

WTF why does NY love moony Gingrich ??

[8ClicksPerSecond]

I live on long island and as far as I know, a few of us have some big plans for signs-specifically on the LIE and on some major parkways. We wanna work with all the local area colleges with the GOTV. By the time NY rolls around, we can def WIN. No, I am not joking-

dowling
stony brook
touro
st johns
malloy
york college
Southampton
Baruch


(any more please let me know and I will add them)

I am personally contacting the libertarian and republican college groups to see if they would be willing to help with the GOTV effort. Please let me know if anyone here wants to help out with signs/D2D stuff. It's going to get real intense in march, and I don't plan to start working FT until at least April 1st. We have over a month here in NY and we gotta work together to get AS MANY REPUBS out at possible. This primary is closed, lots of rockefeller repubs here. We WILL dominate upstate. No doubt about that. We gotta win the wall street and industrial types on the island, which we CAN. We just gotta work hard.

I go to St. John's and wear Ron Paul shirts whenever I can around campus and I am thinking about starting up a YAL Chapter here next semester. There is surprisingly a decent amount of Ron Paul supporters here. I don't think anyone knows about the primary though :\

[IDefendThePlatform]

I'm actually pretty encouraged by this poll considering its 1)closed, Republican only 2) a primary state 3) Ron hasn't visited (lately) or advertised 4) Our NY grassroots are all busy helping with phone from home for other states and probably haven't done too much locally yet.

We need a win here soon to break through, but this poll makes NY seem within reach with a little momentum and effort down the road.

[Narmical]

I live next to New York, and I think he has some support there. Most people surrounding NYC are romney wall street people though.

I live in NYC, and work on wall st. Just thought id share.

[Narmical]

(any more please let me know and I will add them)


Columbia University has a Libertarian student group.

[8ClicksPerSecond]

I think Fordham University in The Bronx has a YAL Chapter as well.

[Liberty74]

Don't read into a meaningless poll.

It only consists of "registered" voters which is not reliable plus you don't know the number of people surveyed which matters to the legitimacy of such poll. Best to be around 1000 give or take.

[Narmical]

It only consists of "registered" voters which is not reliable

I am genuinely curious. Why does the above indicate unreliability?

[tsai3904]

Don't read into a meaningless poll.

It only consists of "registered" voters which is not reliable plus you don't know the number of people surveyed which matters to the legitimacy of such poll. Best to be around 1000 give or take.

The entire poll consisted of registered voters, but the Republican primary poll consisted of only registered Republicans.

[Lavitz]

Don't read into a meaningless poll.

It only consists of "registered" voters which is not reliable plus you don't know the number of people surveyed which matters to the legitimacy of such poll. Best to be around 1000 give or take.

Actually, since the link in the OP wasn't working for me, I dug around a little bit and found the crosstabs here: http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY012912%20Crosstabs.pdf

It says 807 registered voters and only 24% were Republican, so it should come out to somewhere around 193 Republicans. So you're right that we should take it with a grain of salt since the sample size was small and they may have overpolled the youth a bit (22%). I'm also not sure if this is a reliable method to screen for likely voters: http://www.siena.edu/pages/5213.asp

[Johnsgoat]

Suffolk County, Ronkonkoma area. Quite a few of us active here, we're on meetup and facebook.

[rb3b3]

wow sooo many long islanders here in this thread!!! yup im another long islander from the smithtown area, and yes im alll for ron paul!!!!

[TomtheTinker]

Utica ny reporting

[Zarn Solen]

I live in NJ, but I was born on Long island. I was born in Stony Brook, raised in Medford, and I visit my uncle's in Smithtown and usually other places every year. I always figured that if NY would ever be on board with doing things right for once, Long Island would have to be on board.

[Johnsgoat]

If anyone is in the area they should join the meetup, also I have extra yards signs and bumper stickers if anyone needs one. http://www.meetup.com/ronpaulliberty/

[Philman]

Don't read into a meaningless poll.

It only consists of "registered" voters which is not reliable plus you don't know the number of people surveyed which matters to the legitimacy of such poll. Best to be around 1000 give or take.


It is clear you have never had a single class on statistics in your life.

[libertygrl]

Nice, can't wait to vote for the good doctor when it's New York's turn. Does anyone know if it is too late to get more people in New York to switch parties and vote in this thing?

I believe the time to switch parties is over. We would have to go after the unregistered voters.