Drudge this pic! (Ron Paul's support 2008 vs 2012)

[Suzu]

It may have been posted elsewhere but I made a small change to make it better - the two Nevada figures in the one I changed were crammed together, so I separated them.

The caption? You tell me...

1235

[specsaregood]

why would we want to promote our shortcomings?

[AlexG]

uhh no, a loss is a loss

[cero]

srsly guys wth happened in nevada :/

[Romulus]

It's hard not to think there was some serious fraud going on there.

I remember Angle was up on the polls 3+ points then lost to Reid by over 5 points. Turns out a lot of the polls machines are union run I believe...

[Cabal]

2nd place is just the first loser... and we didn't even get that.

[Marky]

why would we want to promote our shortcomings?

This chart illustrates how sketchy the official tallies were in Nevada. It’s intended to bring up questions of legitimacy.

[specsaregood]

This chart illustrates how sketchy the official tallies were in Nevada. It’s intended to bring up questions of legitimacy.

Yeah, it might do that with RP supporters looking for a reason to excuse it. But it won't be used that way by drudge or any other media outlets.

[tfurrh]

prepare for tin-foil, conspiracy bashing. ....jackholes.

[Noblegeorge]

God damn, when you look at it like that....that does look very suspicious.

[tfurrh]

srsly guys wth happened in nevada :/

Ever seen the movie Casino? watch the first 10 minutes.

[sevin]

I suspect voter fraud. How could have have gained less than 100 new voters? No way. He should have doubled his numbers from 2008, but that would have made him a frontrunner, and they certainly don't want that.

[specsaregood]

I suspect voter fraud. How could have have gained less than 100 new voters? No way. He should have doubled his numbers from 2008, but that would have made him a frontrunner, and they certainly don't want that.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/nov/13/population-decline-will-it-reverse-eyes-future-des/
From: 2010


Jeff Hardcastle, the state’s demographer, estimates Nevada has 70,000 fewer residents since last year, including about 50,000 fewer in Clark County.

Just as in those other cities, the population loss is in some ways entirely predictable.

“People moved here for economic opportunity, so we expected them to leave when some of those opportunities ran out,” said Jeremy Aguero, principal of the consulting firm Applied Analysis.

One need only check the price of a U-Haul. Renting a moving truck to drive to Dallas, which has been to a large degree spared during this recession, will cost you $1,026. Renting one in Dallas to drive here costs roughly half that because the company needs more trucks in Las Vegas.


4 years of population loss; the majority of which are probably younger workers who are in Paul's base of support.

[fearthereaperx]

How much did Romney's results go down?

[blabam]

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/nov/13/population-decline-will-it-reverse-eyes-future-des/
From: 2010


4 years of population loss; the majority of which are probably younger workers who are in Paul's base of support.

All the Paul supporters moved to New Hampshire?

[tfurrh]

Jeff Hardcastle, the state’s demographer, estimates Nevada has 70,000 fewer residents since last year, including about 50,000 fewer in Clark County.

Apparently they all moved to IA, NH, SC, & FL.....give me a break.

[specsaregood]

Apparently they all moved to IA, NH, SC, & FL.....give me a break.

Take a minute to think critically about it. Or put the TURNOUT from 2008 vs. 2012 on the graph. There was much less turnout and the other candidates got less votes. Paul increased his numbers despite that. That's actually pretty good.

[Diashi]

Apparently they all moved to IA, NH, SC, & FL.....give me a break.

Census data shows their population went up, not down (http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/32000.html) - if that means anything

[tfurrh]

Census data shows their population went up, not down (http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/32000.html) - if that means anything

Why should that mean something, and the picture in the OP not mean something?

[ravedown]

bullshit- that population drop explanation is a joke. i live in las vegas and can personally tell you the Ron Paul presence in 2012 is hugely more evident than 2008. there were more young people involved- yards signs, billboards, bumper stickers than ive ever seen- endorsements from local talk radio personalities etc. and clark county still has close to 3 million people- there is no mass exodus outta las vegas. even non- RP supporters will tell you- Ron Pauler's are everywhere. again-that excuse is bullshit.

[specsaregood]

Census data shows their population went up, not down (http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/32000.html) - if that means anything

During which year range though? There are plenty of articles from NV sources talking about loss of population since 2008 - current.
They grew quickly 2000-2008 though.

[jasonxe]

lots of people left during the housing collapse?

[JK/SEA]

well, i see a total of approx. 170,000 votes MORE than 2008 at this point.

[SpicyTurkey]

It's hard not to think there was some serious fraud going on there.

I remember Angle was up on the polls 3+ points then lost to Reid by over 5 points. Turns out a lot of the polls machines are union run I believe...

Wasn't their voting fraud in 08 as well?

[Romulus]

Wasn't their voting fraud in 08 as well?

Las Vegas politics are as corrupt as Chicago's. It's the good ol boy network.

I rejected any 'voter fraud' claims, but if you look at the chart in the OP, I think we'd all be seriously naive to think there wasn't fraud involved.

[tfurrh]

It's hard not to think there was some serious fraud going on there.

I remember Angle was up on the polls 3+ points then lost to Reid by over 5 points. Turns out a lot of the polls machines are union run I believe...

If you (not you, but a general you) knew how we've involved ourselves with endlessly rigging, manipulating, stifling, or crushing most true democratic movements or elections in countless other countries throughout the last half century, what makes you think we wouldn't do it here in the Homeland?

[Romulus]

If you (not you, but a general you) knew how we've involved ourselves with endlessly rigging, manipulating, stifling, or crushing most true democratic movements or elections in countless other countries throughout the last half century, what makes you think we wouldn't do it here in the Homeland?

After seeing the complete and utter bias of all major MSM networks, what makes anyone think they'd stop there? We are up against the machine and they have shown us they'll stop at nothing. And it does not take rigging every election, just select, key ones that matter, to try and control the outcome.

Nevada was ripe for it.

[tfurrh]

After seeing the complete and utter bias of all major MSM networks, what makes anyone think they'd stop there? We are up against the machine and they have shown us they'll stop at nothing. And it does not take rigging every election, just select, key ones that matter, to try and control the outcome.

Nevada was ripe for it.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Romulus again.

I agree. I've not bought into any 'voter fraud' discussions in any previous states. I did get upset with the 'Santorum Surge' in IA, but I didn't think the caucus results were rigged.

[Giuliani was there on 911]

http://i.imgur.com/uxz8b.jpg

[Taco John]

You'd be better off sending that pic to Nate Silver than Drudge at this point...

[Kregisen]

1. Voting turnout was lower in 2012 than in 2008

2. I dont know off-hand how many and who was still in the race in 2008, but perhaps a large portion of Paul's votes were protest votes against the top 1 or 2 candidates. 2008 votes does not necessarily mean Paul was their favorite. There's a reason why we get more votes when candidates drop out.

3. Early morning caucus means a lot of old people and few young people. This was evident in the polling statistics.


The people here claiming that someone somehow manipulated voting totals from 1,800 different precincts is stupid plain and simple. I don't care if you're a member of RPF or not but if you seriously think someone was able to change votes in that many precincts you're out of your mind and you make the rest of RPF look dumb. Were there suspicious things in the Nevada voting? Sure, but that is not on the same scale we're talking about here.

[Suzu]

You'd be better off sending that pic to Nate Silver than Drudge at this point...

Not sure who that is, but the pic did end up here:

http://shar.es/fxaYT

[Kregisen]

On top of that, other states we did very well in 2008 we are polling at less right now. Minnesota for example. In 2008 we got 16 or 18% and right now we're in last place with what, 12%?

So if you conspiracy theorists want to stay consistent you might as well say PPP is also in on the plan to ruin Paul and is lying about their polling.


It's simply a matter of how well we did in 2008. South Carolina has HUGE increases of support from the last 4 years because 4 years ago there was no organization and we got 3.5%. You cannot simply show the numbers without the percentages and say that because we quadrupled from 3.5% to 13% we should quadruple or even double from 15% to 30+% like some of you think.

[Paulistinian]

I blame the SuperBrochure.

[Travlyr]

On top of that, other states we did very well in 2008 we are polling at less right now. Minnesota for example. In 2008 we got 16 or 18% and right now we're in last place with what, 12%?

So if you conspiracy theorists want to stay consistent you might as well say PPP is also in on the plan to ruin Paul and is lying about their polling.


It's simply a matter of how well we did in 2008. South Carolina has HUGE increases of support from the last 4 years because 4 years ago there was no organization and we got 3.5%. You cannot simply show the numbers without the percentages and say that because we quadrupled from 3.5% to 13% we should quadruple or even double from 15% to 30+% like some of you think.

Honest question: Have you read "End The Fed" by Ron Paul?

[LibertyEagle]

It may have been posted elsewhere but I made a small change to make it better - the two Nevada figures in the one I changed were crammed together, so I separated them.

The caption? You tell me...

1235

It came from Jack Hunter's article titled: THE IMPORTANCE OF VOTING

http://www.ronpaul2012.com/2012/02/06/ron-pauls-performance-to-date-the-importance-of-voting/

I have no earthly idea why you would think drudging this would be a good idea.

[tfurrh]

The people here claiming that someone somehow manipulated voting totals from 1,800 different precincts is stupid plain and simple. I don't care if you're a member of RPF or not but if you seriously think someone was able to change votes in that many precincts you're out of your mind and you make the rest of RPF look dumb. Were there suspicious things in the Nevada voting? Sure, but that is not on the same scale we're talking about here.

RonPaulForums, I sincerely apologize for making all of your members appear dumb. I was mistaken in my previous comments, by thinking this was a GD FORUM. I'm glad Kregisan pointed out how utterly stupid of me that was.

[Lafayette]

Just basing it on the lowest increase over 2008 percent wise(which is Florida ), our turn out should have at least been slightly less than double in 2012 over 2008 for Nevada or roughly 12,000 votes going by the trend in the chart.

At best (South Carolina) should put us about 4.5 times the turn out from 2008 or roughly 27,000 votes in Nevada, again going by the trend in the chart, which would put us inline with what the campaign in Nevada had stated just days before the caucus.


Just a few things to think about.

[Nastynate]

On top of that, other states we did very well in 2008 we are polling at less right now. Minnesota for example. In 2008 we got 16 or 18% and right now we're in last place with what, 12%?

So if you conspiracy theorists want to stay consistent you might as well say PPP is also in on the plan to ruin Paul and is lying about their polling.


It's simply a matter of how well we did in 2008. South Carolina has HUGE increases of support from the last 4 years because 4 years ago there was no organization and we got 3.5%. You cannot simply show the numbers without the percentages and say that because we quadrupled from 3.5% to 13% we should quadruple or even double from 15% to 30+% like some of you think.

I don't think anyone expected to double or triple Nevada's 2008 numbers. Just the fact that there has been substantial gain in every state that some how Nevada is some sort of freak state.

If I wasn't mistaken either but didn't PPP have Ron Paul polling at 9% right before the Nevada caucus? They're real accurate aren't they.

[Romulus]

It came from Jack Hunter's article titled: THE IMPORTANCE OF VOTING

http://www.ronpaul2012.com/2012/02/06/ron-pauls-performance-to-date-the-importance-of-voting/

I have no earthly idea why you would think drudging this would be a good idea.

I think Jack should have titled it, the Importance of Voting, Watching and Recording the Votes, and just left it at that.

[Kregisen]

Honest question: Have you read "End The Fed" by Ron Paul?

I haven't finished it yet, why?


I don't think anyone expected to double or triple Nevada's 2008 numbers. Just the fact that there has been substantial gain in every state that some how Nevada is some sort of freak state.

If I wasn't mistaken either but didn't PPP have Ron Paul polling at 9% right before the Nevada caucus? They're real accurate aren't they.

They polled us at 15% and we got 19%. We also got 15% in 2008, so we got about a 27% higher showing than 4 years ago.

[wongster41]

I rejected any 'voter fraud' claims

Even if the claim is from Ron Paul himself for the 2008 campaign????

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eh4DmZY5YYk - skip to 6:00 to hear RP talking about Vote Fraud

[Suzu]

It came from Jack Hunter's article titled: THE IMPORTANCE OF VOTING

http://www.ronpaul2012.com/2012/02/06/ron-pauls-performance-to-date-the-importance-of-voting/

I have no earthly idea why you would think drudging this would be a good idea.

I sent the pic to Jack Hunter. At the time I made the OP, his article didn't exist.

And forgive me, I have no earthly idea why you would think not sharing this would be a good idea. It ought to be plain as the nose on your face that for RP's numbers not to have increased in NV of all places is simply impossible and clear empirical evidence of massive election fraud.

[Kregisen]

RonPaulForums, I sincerely apologize for making all of your members appear dumb. I was mistaken in my previous comments, by thinking this was a GD FORUM. I'm glad Kregisan pointed out how utterly stupid of me that was.

I never said anything about you but if you publicly said on here that someone changed the vote totals from most or all of the 1,800 precincts, then good luck in life.

[LibertyEagle]

I sent the pic to Jack Hunter. At the time I made the OP, his article didn't exist.

And forgive me, I have no earthly idea why you would think not sharing this would be a good idea. It ought to be plain as the nose on your face that for RP's numbers not to have increased in NV of all places is simply impossible and clear empirical evidence of massive election fraud.

It is evidence that a whole lot of our people did not show up.

[tfurrh]

I never said anything about you but if you publicly said on here that someone changed the vote totals from most or all of the 1,800 precincts, then good luck in life.

Yes that's exactly what I said...you can find it 32 posts back:


someone changed the vote totals from most or all of the 1,800 precincts!

I'm going to start braiding my noose now, because life from here out will be impaired by my stupidity.

[Suzu]

http://i.imgur.com/uxz8b.jpg

This is how the image I put in the OP looked before I made the change to the figures in the right-most column. Compare that part of the image to the one in the OP. I added space between the two figures - which are crammed together in this version of the pic.

[specsaregood]

It is evidence that a whole lot of our people did not show up.

For other candidates as well. Romney got over 6000 less votes this time, but about the same percentage.
Turn out was down about 1/3, yet Paul still turned out the same # of people. this should be spun into a positive, not a negative.

[Liberty4life]

Told you guys diebold was stealing elections, the repubs dont care about winning potus

[RonPaulGangsta]

People are delusional idiots if they don't think Ron has been cheated in every state, especially Nevada and Iowa.

[unknown]

WOW. Super WOW.

[nayjevin]

Is it because precincts were dropped?

All candidates might have low numbers in NV if entire precincts were dropped because of discrepancies.

[Publicani]

According to the data, the ratio for four states is: 2.20, 3.11, 4.85, 1.87 and in Nevada 1.01. So Nevada's ratio is 1.49 standard deviations (=1.34) from the mean (=3.01) of the four states. I think the difference is huge, but statistically it is not significant.

[pacelli]

I sent the pic to Jack Hunter. At the time I made the OP, his article didn't exist.

And forgive me, I have no earthly idea why you would think not sharing this would be a good idea. It ought to be plain as the nose on your face that for RP's numbers not to have increased in NV of all places is simply impossible and clear empirical evidence of massive election fraud.

Too bad Hunter's article doesn't involved addressing the issue of massive election fraud and instead focuses solely on VOTING.

Congratulations-- it will probably show up on drudge.

[Suzu]

Told you guys diebold was stealing elections, the repubs dont care about winning potus

Just for the record: Diebold no longer exists, it's now Elections Systems & Software, Inc. (ES&S) But this is a moot point anyway in this case because no machines were used in Nevada.

I'm not sure on your third statement. I think they do care, but maybe they're either too dumb or too obstinate to realize that RP is their only real chance this time.

[Mark37snj]

// Already posted.

[Liberty1789]

You have a much, much better chart to publish, guys: break down Nevada in 3 regions. Instead of +1% in votes, according to CNN poll, you get:

Clark region +26%
Rural region +22%
Washoe region-29%

That chart is massively more telling!

And now you pause and think: what happened?

Let Hunter know :)

[Mark37snj]

You have a much, much better chart to publish, guys: break down Nevada in 3 regions. Instead of +1% in votes, according to CNN poll, you get:

Clark region +26%
Rural region +22%
Washoe region-29%

That chart is massively more telling!

And now you pause and think: what happened?

Let Hunter know :)

WOW, I mean just WOW.

A few posters last nite were saying that Clark was the distraction and the real funny business was going on in Washoe.

Since this was a caucus and they have the actual ballots still, can we sue to get a look at them?

[Publicani]

Can somebody give me the link to the total number of Republican voters in each of the five states in 2008 and 2012?

[specsaregood]

Can somebody give me the link to the total number of Republican voters in each of the five states in 2008 and 2012?
here:

2012 NV Caucus Results (UPDATED TO REFLECT OFFICIAL COUNT, ONLY MINOR CHANGES)
http://www.nevadagop.org/nvgop-caucus-results-certified/ (as of 3am CT Feb 6 -DON'T BLAME ME IF IT CHANGES!)
Romney === 16,486 (50.01%)
Gingrich == 6,956 (21.10%)
Paul ====== 6,175 (18.73%)
Santorum == 3,277 ( 9.94%)
No Vote === == 69 ( 0.21%)
Total turnout: 32,963
Implied delgates: Romney = 14, Gingrich = 6, Paul = 5, Santorum = 3.

Romney down 6160 votes from 2008, Paul up 91 votes since 2008.

Compare to 2008 results:
Romney === 22,646 (51.10%)
Paul ====== 6,084 (13.73%)
McCain ==== 5,650 (12.75%)
Huckabee == 3,616 ( 8.16%)
Thompson == 3,519 ( 7.94%)
Giuliani == 1,910 ( 4.31%)
Hunter ====== 890 ( 2.01%)

[Liberty1789]

Actually, rather than CNN poll numbers, we can now use actual results, and something is really striking:

Number of votes, change 2012 vs 2008

Romney
Clark County -29%
Washoe County -30%
Full state -27%

Paul
Clark County +15%
Washoe County -11%

Gingrich got 16% of Clark and 28% of Washoe, but Romney obtained an identical -30% in votes in both counties.

ALL OF NEWT'S SURGE IN WASHOE WAS AT THE SOLE EXPENSE OF PAUL'S VOTES, LEAVING ROMNEY'S UNAFFECTED.

How's that possible? I cannot get my head around it.

[Publicani]

Thanks Specsaregood and thanks PauliticsPOlitics for 2008/2012 Republicans totals in Nevada. Where can I find the 2008/2012 totals for the other four states?

[Time for Change]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojmOESqVeak