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View Full Version : Facebook IPO numbers, check before buying




onlyrp
02-04-2012, 03:20 PM
* The total company will be valued at $100 billion. (That's worth almost twice as much Boeing and about three times the value of Starbucks.)
* Facebook will have 1-billion Monthly Average Users at the time of the IPO or shortly thereafter.
* Each of those billion users will generate about $4.25 per year for Facebook (roughly the same as what they were worth in revenues to Facebook during 2011, according to Facebook's S1).

Doesn't surprise me that Starbucks is worth less than Facebook, but Boeing??
1B monthly average users, I assume they mean "active" not just registered accounts.
They admit each will generate only $4 a year.
Meaning, $4B a year total. So why is the company worth 25x as much?

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/facebook-ipo-buy-beware-201355750.html

The article is right that facebook can't and shouldn't be compared to google, at least not unless they going to allow anonymous usage that google still largely has.

Zippyjuan
02-04-2012, 03:45 PM
The numbers I have seen- including these- seem to suggest that the expected price is way over what the company is presently realistically worth. And new competition for Facebook keeps coming up so growing by four or ten times current size will become more difficult. I think this will be one of those IPS where it is big the first week and drops for a long time after that.

And as some financial reporters have asked- what will Facebook actualy DO with all of that money they raise?

onlyrp
02-04-2012, 03:47 PM
The numbers I have seen- including these- seem to suggest that the expected price is way over what the company is presently realistically worth. And new competition for Facebook keeps coming up so growing by four or ten times current size will become more difficult. I think this will be one of those IPS where it is big the first week and drops for a long time after that.

And as some financial reporters have asked- what will Facebook actualy DO with all of that money they raise?

who's competition for facebook?

I agree it may be overpriced or overvalued, but it'll all become obvious a year after they've opened (or sooner)

good question, what can they possibly do with that money?

Zippyjuan
02-04-2012, 03:48 PM
Google Plus for one.

PaulStandsTall
02-04-2012, 04:34 PM
1B active users? Eh I bet at least 5% of that are bots. Also are the numbers confirmed? If I were Mark Z, I'd inflate our user number as much as possible before an IPO.

There are endless social networks that compete with Facebook. Here's one http://ronpaulsocialnetwork.com/ :)

They will likely start a search engine, make products, add special feature subscriptions, expand. (if they're smart)

onlyrp
02-04-2012, 05:05 PM
1B active users? Eh I bet at least 5% of that are bots. Also are the numbers confirmed? If I were Mark Z, I'd inflate our user number as much as possible before an IPO.

There are endless social networks that compete with Facebook. Here's one http://ronpaulsocialnetwork.com/ :)

They will likely start a search engine, make products, add special feature subscriptions, expand. (if they're smart)

i was giving the numbers the best benefit of doubt, assuming it was either true, or reliable.

I too am skeptical of how the numbers were obtained.

"end less networks that compete"? how many dare claim they have a million users?

bolil
02-04-2012, 07:04 PM
If I was Mark Z, Id change my name to Flibbertigibbit.

legion
02-04-2012, 07:06 PM
these overhyped ipos are paying for someone elses golden parachute. this is the 'exit plan' phase of the business.