1836
02-04-2012, 04:05 PM
The Nevada GOP will begin releasing results from rural counties (i.e., everything except Clark County, which means Las Vegas and suburbs) around 5 p.m. PST, which means that where Ron Paul does BEST, those counties will be the first to report.
It is not at all unlikely that we could show very strong in this early release of results, perhaps as high as 25% or more. We will almost certainly be in a stronger second place in this early release.
Keep in mind, however, that Clark County (approximately half of all NV caucus participants) will not be released until 7 p.m. This is because a late caucus is being held for Orthodox Jews and Seventh-Day Adventists there, and therefore they will not release Clark results until later. That is Mitt's territory, in particular, and it is likely Newt Gingrich will show better there also. Overall, in Clark County, we should expect to come in a close 3rd to Newt, maybe around 15-20% of the vote.
Overall, I expect us to come in 2nd, but do not be surprised if the late returns ding our results significantly. I'm just posting this so that people do not get overly excited by our early finish.
The two releases will each comprise about 50% of the overall results, so if we are doing exceptionally well early, we can at worst expect to be cut down by a 1/3 or so by Clark.
It is not at all unlikely that we could show very strong in this early release of results, perhaps as high as 25% or more. We will almost certainly be in a stronger second place in this early release.
Keep in mind, however, that Clark County (approximately half of all NV caucus participants) will not be released until 7 p.m. This is because a late caucus is being held for Orthodox Jews and Seventh-Day Adventists there, and therefore they will not release Clark results until later. That is Mitt's territory, in particular, and it is likely Newt Gingrich will show better there also. Overall, in Clark County, we should expect to come in a close 3rd to Newt, maybe around 15-20% of the vote.
Overall, I expect us to come in 2nd, but do not be surprised if the late returns ding our results significantly. I'm just posting this so that people do not get overly excited by our early finish.
The two releases will each comprise about 50% of the overall results, so if we are doing exceptionally well early, we can at worst expect to be cut down by a 1/3 or so by Clark.