Competitive race untill super tuesday probably seals virginia win. What are the chances?

[fatjohn]

Now that Florida went to Romney, what are the chances that the media wont call it in the bag for Romney by super tuesday?

Romney is only losing Colorado and Minnesota at the moment. And lets say he will be beaten in Maine by our guy. Other than that he'll probably win Arizona, Nevada and Michigan. Will the gingrich voters still cast their vote anti-Romney and thus pro-Paul in Virginia?

Here are the latest polls... How many of those Gingrich voters could go to ron? 60%? while 20% stays home and 20 goes to mittens?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_republican_presidential_primary-1776.html

That gives 31 Romney - 27 Paul and 31 Paul - 23 Romney in the two latest polls. I would guess/hope that the marginal Santorum following would also nudge toward Paul.

Anyone from Virginia who has a better view on this?

[Chester Copperpot]

ROmney is losing COlorado and Minnesota to us??

DO you have a link for any data?

[Paulatized]

I think a final vote was to be taken yesterday to allow write-in in the primary, but I can't find the outcome.

[fatjohn]

ROmney is losing COlorado and Minnesota to us??

DO you have a link for any data?

No to gingrich, unfortunately.

Ok, edited out a ´too´ in my initial post that made you think of it that way :d

[Simple]

Karen Kwiatkowski told me that the Virginia GOP is asking people to vote for Paul. They like Newt and don't want Romney picking up delegates. I've heard students tell me that they'd vote for Paul as a protest vote because their fav candidate didn't make the ballot, so between the two I think Paul will benefit from these protest votes.

[Aratus]

i think Virginia is the hinge for the entire nomination becuz mitt romney either cakewalks to
victory there or we see a primary GOP season that makes hillary v. barack look short & brief.

[Cyberbrain]

I have no idea what will really happen here because it's too early to tell. There's a huge military presence here, Norfolk shipyard, rural areas, college towns, all are good for Paul. Romney will probably do well in northern Virginia (huge population, DC metro area), Richmond. If Paul can get some momentum coming into Super Tuesday then he might do well, but it's a strange situation.