Delegate Totals to Date. NUMBERS FUDGED. WOULD LIKE EXPLANATION.

[cdc482]

My cousin has sent me a couple of delegate estimates (including NPR, CNN, and NYT). That show Paul with 2 delegates (except for CNN which had him at 10), and Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum WAY AHEAD. There are a few reasons why I don't trust these counts:
1. All 3 media outlets have a history of lying and purposefully fudging Paul's numbers (except NPR).
2. 2/3 list Paul as having gotten 0 delegates in Iowa, which seems ridiculous considering it was almost a 3 way tie, and Paul had the best organization according to Iowa GOP officials.
3. NH (also proportional), apparently only awarded Paul 3 delegates, which seems unlikely given that Romney got 7, and Paul got well over 50% of Romney's vote total.

I don't believe Santorum is ahead of Paul in delegates, but given Gingrich's strong showing in SC, he may be close or even a little ahead in current delegate counts.
Can anyone provide more reasoning to explain to my cousin and others why they shouldn't trust these counts and sources?
It's extremely bothersome that the MSM lies about Ron Paul to manipulate voters into voting for yet another warmonger.

(And yes, I realize it takes 1144 to win, and so the current counts mean nothing, but it'd still be valuable to prove that Paul IS off to a strong start).

[harikaried]

The ones giving Ron Paul 0 delegates in Iowa are probably using AP's numbers:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Republican_caucuses,_2012#Unofficial_results

In reality, no delegates have been given in Iowa, and if the delegates supporting Ron Paul in Iowa are well organized, they could possibly take all 28.

[flynn]

If those delegates in the primary states become unbound, which will be soon when Santorum and Gingrich drop out, the supporters would either have to vote for Romney or Paul. By then Dr. Paul would hold a position to negotiate with the GOP on whether they would like to beat Obama or not.

[tsai3904]

Read this post for actual delegates to date:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/02/race-to-1144-florida-primary.html

[gerryb]

If those delegates in the primary states become unbound, which will be soon when Santorum and Gingrich drop out, the supporters would either have to vote for Romney or Paul. By then Dr. Paul would hold a position to negotiate with the GOP on whether they would like to beat Obama or not.

If the delegates are unbound they can vote for anyone. I don't see any indication either of those two will drop out prior to the convention, either.

And as for overall delegate estimates... Why would you trust MSM? They are supposed to be journalists and they don't even know the first thing about how the process works.

[Jeremy]

There's not such thing as delegate totals because most of the states don't know yet. There are estimate totals or pledged delegates in certain states.

[cdc482]

If the delegates are unbound they can vote for anyone. I don't see any indication either of those two will drop out prior to the convention, either.

And as for overall delegate estimates... Why would you trust MSM? They are supposed to be journalists and they don't even know the first thing about how the process works.

I don't trust ANYTHING the MSM says. Maybe 6 months ago, I would have believed them, but watching this race has made me realize how incredibly biased they are. I avoid everything they say because it makes my blood pressure explode. I just want my cousin to realize this too. That the MSM has had the same agenda at least since George Bush senior, and they have shut out every honest politician with lies and deceit to manipulate the population.

We need to work on making the rest of the population realize this. Thank God for the internet generation.

[gerryb]

I would just tell them Iowa determines who its RNC delegates are in June -- and ask them how can anyone report who they support before that (Even after the IA State convention in June unless a journalist goes to each one and asks(unlikely) they wouldn't know...)

For primaries in NH, SC, and FL the numbers being reported CAN be accurate, but are not necessarily unless the people reporting it looked at the rules in each state and reported based off that result.

[kpitcher]

Plenty of examples of bad delegates counts in the media spin forum. I like this source with the soft and hard pledge totals.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R

[sailingaway]

No delegates have been awarded from Iowa. That is where the major issue is because some cut Ron out completely there, whereas the reality is he may walk away with the majority of them when they are finalized in June. We won't know until June, but neither does anyone else. They shouldn't be in there at all. Essentially, if your estimate shows santorum with ANY they are guessing how they think Iowa will go. Santorum has ZERO delegates locked down. The best, least biased source is typically recognized to be greenpapers but it is still an estimate when it comes to those not locked down by law.

[Carson]

Someone posted this link that appears to give an idea of where the contenders stand.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/calculator/

One of the things that worries me is the Republican Party seems to be so bought and paid for and the corruption so deep that to have any chance of having a fair contest completely outside the realm of possibility. This is their show. Is it not?

[Carson]

Plenty of examples of bad delegates counts in the media spin forum. I like this source with the soft and hard pledge totals.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R

Nice list. I had been thinking others were being blacked out besides Ron Paul.


Ron Paul!