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View Full Version : One Nevada Poll Shows Mitt Romney Far Ahead, But Why So Few Polls?




123tim
02-02-2012, 06:39 PM
I've been wondering about this myself.
Personally, I think that there's another reason.


WASHINGTON -- Although a just-released poll of likely Republican caucus-goers in Nevada finds Mitt Romney with a huge lead, polls in Nevada and the other upcoming Republican caucus states have been scarce.

Where have all the polls gone? While budgets are a factor, the main reason is the difficulty of surveying likely voters in low-turnout caucuses.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/02/nevada-polls-mitt-romney-ahead-few-polls_n_1250283.html

DamianTV
02-02-2012, 06:46 PM
Id figure the reason is probably that we havent had our Caucus yet. Its this Saturday. These polls in question seem to be self serving.

123tim
02-02-2012, 06:53 PM
Id figure the reason is probably that we havent had our Caucus yet. Its this Saturday. These polls in question seem to be self serving.

I guess that you must be from Nevada then. Let me thank you in advance for voting for Ron Paul. :)

Do you remember if there were many polls taken in 2008?

DamianTV
02-02-2012, 07:39 PM
There were, but they were also terribly biased, well over half of them omitted Ron Paul. And yeah, I am from Nevada. Speaking of which, I have to go post a new thread becaue he is in town in about an hour and a half, just found out!

acptulsa
02-02-2012, 07:47 PM
There were, but they were also terribly biased, well over half of them omitted Ron Paul. And yeah, I am from Nevada. Speaking of which, I have to go post a new thread becaue he is in town in about an hour and a half, just found out!

Were you there four years ago? Please take some time (if you haven't already) to go to the Nevada Caucus forum and tell the newbies to the process just what to expect in the caucuses themselves!

Thanks!

123tim
02-03-2012, 06:18 AM
A new PPP poll just came out this morning. The poll has Ron Paul back up to where he had been previously - 15%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_republican_presidential_primary-1768.html

Concerning Nevada, I found this interesting (Important?) bit of information in an article that I read:

"If turnout is higher than 65,000 to 70,000, then more Romney people and more supporters of other candidates are coming up, then we might have some trouble," said Carl Bunce, the Nevada chairman of the Paul campaign. "But we have the numbers to win. We just have to turn them out."

Bunce dismissed the poll results, saying most Paul supporter refuse to participate or lie in surveys because of a bad experience in Nevada four years ago. He said Sen. John McCain's campaign did robocalls to identify Paul supporters and then sidelined them at the state party convention. McCain won the GOP nomination, but the state GOP convention was shut down before delegates could be counted and after Paul supporters tried to take over the meeting from the floor.

"A lot of the political activists don't answer those polls, or answer falsely," Bunce said. "I'm always skeptical of polls."
http://www.lvrj.com/news/romney-poised-to-roll-poll-shows-138551749.html

Zippyjuan
02-03-2012, 03:10 PM
Polls prior to a cauaus are less predictive than polls before a primary- that is due to the process of caucuses. Besides the first round of voting, there are subsequent rounds where you try to get others to change their mind on their votes- a poll cannot predict who or if somebody will change their vote to somebody else during the event. Ron has passionate supporters who can be good at getting people to side with them during a caucus and that is why he usually does pretty well in them.

DamianTV
02-03-2012, 04:23 PM
Were you there four years ago? Please take some time (if you haven't already) to go to the Nevada Caucus forum and tell the newbies to the process just what to expect in the caucuses themselves!

Thanks!

I was there and will be there again.