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View Full Version : In caucus states, NV,MN,CO, and Maine Paul does well based on turnout




da32130
02-02-2012, 10:18 AM
Don't worry about the poll numbers. If we do well in Nevada, Minnesota, Maine, and Colorado it won't be because of high poll numbers compared with other states. It will be because of turnout.

Here is the impact of turnout in 2008, and a results comparison with 2012 (all results from before Feb 10, when most candidates were still in, listed by date):

caucus:
Iowa 10% (21% in 2012)
Nevada 14% (19% in 2012)
Maine 18% (35% in 2012)
Alaska 17%
Colorado 9% (12% in 2012)
Minnesota 16% (27% in 2012)
Montana 25%
North Dakota 21%
Washington 22%
Kansas 11%

primary:
New Hampshire 8% (23% in 2012)
Michagan 6%
South Carolina 4% (13% in 2012)
Florida 3% (7% in 2012)
Alabama 3%
Tennessee 6%
Connecticut 4%
Arizona 4%
Georgia 3%
Delaware 4%
California 4%
Arkansas 5%
Missouri 4% (12% in 2012)

etc.

The lowest caucus was 9%, the highest primary pre Feb 10th in 2008 was 8%.
The highest caucus was 25%, the lowest primary was 3%.

Turnout can make a huge difference in the poorly attended caucuses.

Also, based on Intrade the odds for Paul finishing first in Maine (25%), Washington (16%), or winning any caucus (40%) show there is still the possibility of a win even by Intrade.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#302

da32130
02-02-2012, 12:36 PM
bump

AngryCanadian
02-02-2012, 12:40 PM
I agree with you, everyone is expecting Paul to do well in NV, if the turnout is great or better good as expected everything will be fine, polls will turn around, i do predict Newt coming in third place on Sat though.

da32130
02-21-2012, 04:13 PM
updated numbers

BUSHLIED
02-21-2012, 04:19 PM
it's clear Ron's support has increase substantially but not enough to win...sadly and unfortunately. Romney on the other hand has lost support but is still beating Paul...

da32130
02-21-2012, 04:35 PM
it's clear Ron's support has increase substantially but not enough to win...sadly and unfortunately. Romney on the other hand has lost support but is still beating Paul...

We almost beat him in Maine and we have even more favorable states coming up.

The straw vote ignores the delegates which by all accounts are doing even better. So we may have won Iowa Minn and Maine. Three wins is doing pretty good.

If we get a brokered convention the delegate strategy will even pay off more in the winner take all and primary states.

gerryb
02-21-2012, 04:44 PM
If we get a brokered convention the delegate strategy will even pay off more in the winner take all and primary states.

Only if our people are putting in the work NOW.

Otherwise a brokered convention will not go our way, as 70% of the other delegates will coalesce around Bush or whoever "they" push.

da32130
02-21-2012, 04:59 PM
Only if our people are putting in the work NOW.

Otherwise a brokered convention will not go our way, as 70% of the other delegates will coalesce around Bush or whoever "they" push.

I thought we were putting in the work?

My point is if we can't win a brokered convention then we aren't going to win the nomination based on caucus straw votes and we sure aren't going to win based on primary votes.

Winning through a brokered convention is our best chance. However, we should still shoot for winning outright before one.

It is based on primary (wide voters) => caucus straw vote (narrower) => caucus delegates (even narrower) => non caucus delegates (my impression is very few do this)

So our ground game has the greater edge the further right we move.

IDefendThePlatform
02-22-2012, 08:36 AM
How about this for an ace up our sleeve in a brokered convention?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=choTc5sB-7E


1 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=choTc5sB-7E),000+ veterans outside, in formation, chanting "President Paul!" while the delegates cast their ballots in a brokered convention?

Avalon
02-22-2012, 08:48 AM
That might work on regular republicans and even hardcore ones who show up to caucuses/conventions. But it won't work on the slimy, self important national delegates that are always part of the state republican machinery. Excepting a Ron Paul revolution, of course.

Paul Or Nothing II
02-22-2012, 08:52 AM
How about this for an ace up our sleeve in a brokered convention?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=choTc5sB-7E


1 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=choTc5sB-7E),000+ veterans outside, in formation, chanting "President Paul!" while the delegates cast their ballots in a brokered convention?

That is fantastic! :D

IDefendThePlatform
02-22-2012, 09:43 AM
That might work on regular republicans and even hardcore ones who show up to caucuses/conventions. But it won't work on the slimy, self important national delegates that are always part of the state republican machinery. Excepting a Ron Paul revolution, of course.

It'll certainly have an effect on some. I guarantee a lot of them aren't aware of it, or if they are haven't really given it as much thought as it deserves. And its a great chance for all those involved in any negotiations or wooing of delegates to bring up Ron's incredible military support, including being the only Republican to outraise Obama in military donations.

Badger Paul
02-22-2012, 01:26 PM
Two things we need to get a brokered convention:

1). Santorum wins Michigan
2). Gingrich wins Georgia.