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Havax
02-01-2012, 05:03 PM
Please try to be realistic as possible. Assuming Ron isn't elected, when do we think it will happen?

What will it look like?
Will everyone's stocks become immediately worthless?
Will the dollar collapse?
When the dollar collapse does every cent I have in my savings account get wiped out and never to be redeemed?
Does this mean everyone is a fool for having any substantial savings in cash and should be converting it all to gold and silver?
Will there be a civil war that outbreaks and riots in the streets?
Will food become scarce?

GunnyFreedom
02-01-2012, 05:16 PM
The dollar becomes progressively weaker and oil-producing nations accelerate the pullout from the dollar, the Fed tries raising interest rates to stop the hemorrhaging leading to a total freeze-up of credit whereupon the US Treasury initiates a tsunami of spending hoping to stimulate consumerism but instead creates massive inflation that becomes a death-spiral of inflation and possibly hyperinflation.

OR the freeze-up in credit spurs the Fed to raise rates even more to stimulate lending leading to a deflationary death-spiral, foreclosures skyrocket as wages collapse, the minimum wage becomes an insurmountable hurdle and before Congress can act to lower or eliminate it we see close to 50% unemployment.

IN EITHER CASE

"Just In Time Logistics" dries up and the supermarket shelves go bare. The lack of food causes riots, particularly in urban and dense suburban areas. The National Guard is tasked with bringing in food relief to hungry rioters who in turn clash with the national guard trying desperately to force a larger share of food. Horribleness ensues, and martial law is declared, at which point many of the self-made militia types emerge from their bomb-shelters and engage the forces enforcing the police state and horrificness ensues.

Now all the unused tools of the police state go into effect. NDAA indefinite detention against Americans, targeted assassinations, PATRIOT surveillance with a vengeance, possible drone strikes against "terrorist headquarters" (coordinates collected in the last census) a strike misses and takes out an in-home daycare and people lose their shyt.

With no viable media (or, possibly, internet) with which to express outrage, the anger boils up and boils over into something akin to a real civil war.

America dissolves in bloodshed. The UN proposes a one-world government to restore order in the former United States, and hundreds of thousands of troops from a 50 nation coalition lands.

Worst case scenario.

KCIndy
02-01-2012, 05:37 PM
On the bright side, I've heard rumors that there will be plenty of gruel in the FEMA camp commissaries.

DamianTV
02-01-2012, 07:34 PM
Please try to be realistic as possible. Assuming Ron isn't elected, when do we think it will happen?

What will it look like?

Dont know. Never experienced the collapse of a society personally.

Will everyone's stocks become immediately worthless?

I doubt that. It would be a chain reaction. Say the value of the dollar drops suddenly for some reason. First places to get hit by crashing stock prices would be anyone with investments in finance. That triggers off a large scale domino effect.

Will the dollar collapse?

If we do not change our course, it is mathematically guaranteed. It is just a matter of time.

When the dollar collapse does every cent I have in my savings account get wiped out and never to be redeemed?

Your Savings Acct is not redeemable now in a currency of value. It is only redeemable in Fiat Currency. When the Value of the Fiat Currency drops, you might be able to pull that money out, say you had a hundred bucks, but a loaf of bread cost a thousand. The way they are stealing your money isnt by stealing the Quantity, they are stealing the Value, which you and everyone else sees as an increase in price of goods and services, but mostly fail to realize the price didnt really go up, the Value of your Fiat Currency went down.

Does this mean everyone is a fool for having any substantial savings in cash and should be converting it all to gold and silver?

It isnt foolish if you dont have the ability or resources to buy gold and silver. Look at other things of Value that can be Traded in a Barter System. What do you have if you have no worldly possessions? The ability to do Work. Work has value. Your Skills have Value. Your Abilities have Value. The Ability to learn HOW to Fix and Repair, and more importantly, how to Create. That can be Bartered.

Will there be a civil war that outbreaks and riots in the streets?

Probably not in a sense that the people are truly aware of the cause of the war. The blame will be shifted as quickly to anyone but the nature of the Dishonest Money System itself, even if that focus is on several major Banks.

Will food become scarce?

Definitely. No way around it. So much of our food is imported and no longer locally grown. You and I are Food Slaves, since being able to provide for yourself is pretty much outlawed. Think Katrina, but on a National Level.

(edit: fixed formatting)

gunnysmith
02-01-2012, 07:38 PM
Simply, you're going to be hungry.
Probably cold when winter comes.

terp
02-01-2012, 07:59 PM
I think you need to spread your bets a bit here. I agree that the most likely scenario is a dollar collapse. In which case your savings denominated in fiat currency will be pretty worthless. That will be a total bummer.

However, I think its important to remember that the market forces want deflation. The only reason we don't have deflation is because the fed has been so aggressive. There is a huge tug of war going on between these two forces. Its always possible things go the other way and we get a deflationary spiral. In this case your bank savings are at risk due to default and not devaluation. In this scenario you'd be better off having cash stowed away outside of a bank.

Either case, you probably do pretty well having some food & other supplies stored away if you're concerned about a systemic type of collapse. There are likely to be some supply disruptions.

Its some pretty stark subject matter here. I'm sure, like me, Havax is wondering how all this will affect Maryland's recruiting. ;)

Danke
02-01-2012, 08:06 PM
...

I'll be able to date again, with only a few cigarettes.

AceNZ
02-01-2012, 08:22 PM
Please try to be realistic as possible. Assuming Ron isn't elected, when do we think it will happen?

I'd say between 1 and 10 years from now -- but it's more likely to be a process than an event. It may already be too late for RP to stop it if he's elected. The Ship of State is awfully big creature, with huge momentum all its own.


Will everyone's stocks become immediately worthless?

No, not everyone's and not immediately. Some stocks will periodically become worthless. An equally significant problem is that counterparty risk will continue to climb, as the stability of brokerages and exchanges becomes increasingly doubtful (like MF Global).


Will the dollar collapse?

The dollar has already lost 90% of its value, just in the last 40 years. The way things are going now, that's likely to accelerate. We may see another brief round of deflation, but accelerating inflation is the more likely path in the long term. Today's inflation is in the form of the things you buy, not in wages, which will continue to squeeze consumers.


When the dollar collapse does every cent I have in my savings account get wiped out and never to be redeemed?

Some banks fail almost every week (announced on Fridays on the FDIC website). Most depositors get most of their savings back, but usually only after some delay. When it happened in Argentina, between the time the banks closed their doors and when deposits were available again, the currency had lost something like 40% of its value. In a time of extreme crisis in the US, you can bet that any remaining repositories of wealth will be raided, one way or the other. Pension funds and retirement accounts, for example, already have a big target painted on them.


Does this mean everyone is a fool for having any substantial savings in cash and should be converting it all to gold and silver?

Cash has its place, and holding cash is different than holding money in a bank. There is risk with cash, and there's risk with metals. The most prudent path is probably some combination.


Will there be a civil war that outbreaks and riots in the streets?

It's not impossible. However, I feel civil war is unlikely until/unless the government starts actively, visibly killing its own citizens. Civil unrest, though, like the occupy movements, will almost certainly increase.


Will food become scarce?

I think there's a very good chance of that, yes. Probably not all foods at once, but select foods could easily become difficult to find, particularly in the event of supply-chain disruptions -- trucker strikes, fuel shortages, and the like.

One thing you didn't mention is gasoline prices. I expect them to continue to ratchet up-then-down-then-higher. As high prices slow the economy, prices will go down. Then as production peaks kick in again, prices go back up. Then the process repeats.

Another issue is the risk of holding debt. While inflation can help debtors, if the cost of the things you buy goes up fast enough without wages going up too, it can quickly soak up the income you're using to pay off debt, which makes default more likely. Defaulting on debt is likely to become increasingly difficult and problematic as time goes on. The nature of student loans, where you can use bankruptcy to escape them, is an example of probable future trends.

MadOdorMachine
02-01-2012, 08:25 PM
Please try to be realistic as possible. Assuming Ron isn't elected, when do we think it will happen?

What will it look like?
Will everyone's stocks become immediately worthless?
Will the dollar collapse?
When the dollar collapse does every cent I have in my savings account get wiped out and never to be redeemed?
Does this mean everyone is a fool for having any substantial savings in cash and should be converting it all to gold and silver?
Will there be a civil war that outbreaks and riots in the streets?
Will food become scarce?
The crash is coming this decade - before 2020 - I would bet at the latest. I think it could start this year. There are a lot of contributing factors from what I've researched.

Right now we are in world wide deflation. Although China and India are growing, they are still dependent on others to buy their goods and keep the economy floating. The FED has tried several maneuvers to try and stave off deflation - low interest rates, buying securities, increasing the money supply and monetizing debt. None of this has worked and Bernanke has said the last thing he would do is devalue the currency. This could happen over night.

This will cause the price of commodities like oil, gold and silver to inflate while everything else collapses. Housing prices and the stock market will crash and deflation will kick in as people have no money to purchase anything other than day to day items.

Basically, the FED is creating another bubble - commodities and we are seeing the biggest transfer of wealth in history. When it's all over with, a very small group of people will own the majority of real estate, land, commodities, etc. We will basically be debt slaves or serfs working to support them while they do nothing.

As far as civil unrest goes, it's hard to say what people will do. I think it's likely we will see it though.

Food won't be scarce, but you won't be able to afford it. Having a garden and knowing how to hunt will give you a huge upper hand.

brushfire
02-01-2012, 08:34 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jL5pnjDWISY


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3C3TWrXPr8w


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UK8k5ST4zWU

terp
02-01-2012, 09:41 PM
The Creature has a pretty frightening chapter about what the meltdown would look like. I haven't read that book in some time. I have a friend, who subsequently became a big Ron Paul supporter, return the book because that part was too frightening.

seapilot
02-02-2012, 01:40 AM
Government shut downs become longer and longer. Austerity measures will be implemented whether Ron Paul is elected or not. Ron Paul had a plan unlike where desperate politicos will become frozen in panic or do knee jerk reactions that do not make any sense. I personally do not see the mad max scenario. More like Soviet Union or Argentina style of collapse. The US could split up into separate countries trying to solve economic problems on their own with no guide from D.C.

The dollar does not really exist anymore. The Federal Reserve note will continue to be devalued. Other countries have a forced devaluation(recently Venezuela) to give an idea how it would occur. Bank Holidays. 3 old FRN for 1 new FRN.

There is less than a trillion FRN paper currency and coin actually created. The rest is digital. Take into consideration that most banks have less than 10% of cash reserves and even less in their vaults to exchange for digital currency. Small bills and coins were in high demand in Argentina during their collapse. No one will take credit or debit cards. Rare metals are the best hedge for protecting wealth but impractical for exchange for daily goods. Coins will become in high demand for exchange. Another plus with coins is in a forced devaluation they are still accepted at face value because of the costs of minting them.

There probably will be riots from people not receiving their entitlement checks.Instead of civil war more likely states will start to Balkanize for survival in response to a powerless and frozen Federal Government.

Dsylexic
02-02-2012, 01:49 AM
btw,while it is going to be an economic disaster,please be optimistic :because the technology and knowledge of humanity will not go away.people of the future will continue to live better than we do today. there will be ups and downs ,revolutions -bloody or otherwise,but i am optimistic about humanity.
marc faber the biggest gloom and doom pundit recently explained why it is important to remain optimistic (read the barrons roundtable where he predicts WW3 within the decade)

cindy25
02-02-2012, 06:34 AM
all stocks , no

there are always winners and losers

riots, they are already starting in Tibet; but riots will not be all over (think 1967-1968)

raystone
02-02-2012, 06:49 AM
Been thinking about the potential of civil unrest during the collapse. The Great Depression experienced little violence. I used to think there would be a civil war, maybe even resulting in the U.S. splitting apart. However, looking at history, widespread violence doesn't seem likely.

cindy25
02-02-2012, 06:54 AM
Been thinking about the potential of civil unrest during the collapse. The Great Depression experienced little violence. I used to think there would be a civil war, maybe even resulting in the U.S. splitting apart. However, looking at history, widespread violence doesn't seem likely.

but the Civil war had draft riots in the North (but not the south even though conscription was introduced earlier in the south); there were also race riots in the 60s

Liberty74
02-02-2012, 07:06 AM
Collapse is coming but the elitists are trying to control it.

- Riots
- Dollar devalued 40%: savings is the same but your purchasing power reduced
- New currency - Amero or World currency
- Unemployment 30%
- Stock market collapse, 401k wiped clean
- FEMA camps - country broken up into 8 sections - Patriot Act
- Food counters wiped clean
- Bank Holidays
- Staged govt attacks or false flags
- Marshall law
- Round up of guns

The govt knows this is coming and why they have passed the Patriot Act, Internet Kill Switch, NDAA, FEMA camps, etc.

Best to be out of a major city. Store some food. Have guns and bullets for protection needed. I live right next to an Air Force base so there will be some type of order in my small city of 65K. A coworker has a cabin to go to in WV that is completely off the grid.

Barrex
02-02-2012, 08:03 AM
Worst case scenario.

It wouldnt happen just to America. It would be global.

P.s.
You are running for office.....If your opponents follow you on here they could use this :cool: (paranoia)


To original question: Look at history. French revolution, Great depression, World wars.... all mixed in one. Any new global crisis is more dangereous than previous ones because of mankind improvement in weapons and science.

enoch150
02-02-2012, 08:14 AM
Please try to be realistic as possible. Assuming Ron isn't elected, when do we think it will happen?

What will it look like?
Will everyone's stocks become immediately worthless?
Will the dollar collapse?
When the dollar collapse does every cent I have in my savings account get wiped out and never to be redeemed?
Does this mean everyone is a fool for having any substantial savings in cash and should be converting it all to gold and silver?
Will there be a civil war that outbreaks and riots in the streets?
Will food become scarce?

I think before 2020. Don't believe anyone who says there might be deflation. There won't be - maybe a few percentage points, at most. Inflation is nearly inevitable.

Some stocks will not become worthless. Most will increase. They likely won't increase in value to keep up with inflation, though.

Yes, the dollar will become worthless.

People are fools for holding cash, but they don't necessarily need gold and silver. Anything that will be in demand and is store-able will be fine. Guns, ammo, canned food, land, fuel, etc.

Civil war is unlikely with inadequate supplies of food and fuel. Expect some states to secede and form their own currency. Those states will recover the fastest. Imported goods will be the first to disappear, as foreigners will begin refusing dollars before Americans abandon them. That means a limited supply of oil and gasoline and imported food. Riots are probable.

Food will become scarce, but some areas will survive, without much trouble. Once foreigners start refusing the dollar, and fuel and imported food become hard to come by, the domestic food supply may not be able to be adequately distributed. Once food starts becoming scarce, people will abandon the cities. They'll be able to travel only a couple hundred miles, at best, before fuel becomes scarce, too. It's probably not a good idea to be in their path.


This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy.

But then, finally, the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against ‘real’ goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them.

pcosmar
02-02-2012, 08:14 AM
On the bright side, I've heard rumors that there will be plenty of gruel in the FEMA camp commissaries.

Doubts.
Gruel was made from Hemp Seed.

expect something of the more soylent variety.

GrahamUK
02-02-2012, 08:51 AM
Will food become scarce?

What you might find in that instance is rationing, if you look at Britain during WWII when we were under forced blockade and food and other basic goods became scarce the government brought in a ration book system. This system was enforced and helped control what little was available and made sure that everyone got the basics needed to get from day to day.. In Britain during this time some enterprising individuals prospered from what was known as the black market.. Of course it was outlawed by government, but that didn't prevent things being bought and sold under shop counters, in back ally ways and pubs etc... Essentially a free market of sorts due to the fact that no duty was paid on these goods :)

There will be a rise in crime as the things people need to get by become harder and harder to obtain.. How the government respond and what measures they take, through police actions, powers and martial law etc will prolly determine what levels of civil unrest there will be... That being said your government already has the detention camps and enabling act/acts in place to deal with any civil disobedience...

How will you know when this is likely to happen? ... When the government force changes to gun ownership and your asked to turn in fire arms at local police stations?

Danke
02-02-2012, 09:05 AM
Doubts.
Gruel was made from Hemp Seed.

expect something of the more soylent variety.

At the camp I applied for, we are planning on stocking up on a lot of Tabasco sauce.

MRoCkEd
02-02-2012, 09:51 AM
Libertarians have been preaching about the "coming collapse" for decades. I wouldn't worry too much.

Machiavelli
02-02-2012, 08:28 PM
Libertarians have been preaching about the "coming collapse" for decades. I wouldn't worry too much.

True, but many couldnt predict when it would occur, only that someday it would. Don't you believe we are close?

Travlyr
02-02-2012, 08:39 PM
True, but many couldnt predict when it would occur, only that someday it would. Don't you believe we are close?

That's the thing. The dollar has lost 95% of its value already. People won't believe it until it happens to them. There are a lot of jobless & homeless already, but never mind them they are all drug addicts, alcoholics, and mentally ill. As long as you have a job, a car, and a room... everything is just fine.

RiseAgainst
02-02-2012, 09:06 PM
Been thinking about the potential of civil unrest during the collapse. The Great Depression experienced little violence. I used to think there would be a civil war, maybe even resulting in the U.S. splitting apart. However, looking at history, widespread violence doesn't seem likely.

Different populations. People were still by the large self reliant in those days. It was a largely independent farming culture that could sustain families, locales and communities if even just mere subsistence farming.

Today? No. Within weeks the food supply is wiped and 90% of the population have NO CLUE what to do...

RiseAgainst
02-02-2012, 09:08 PM
At the camp I applied for, we are planning on stocking up on a lot of Tabasco sauce.

Can I apply for Stalag 13?

http://cdn2.mamapop.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/0-0-0-0Colonel_Klink.jpg

Mark37snj
02-02-2012, 11:22 PM
America dissolves in bloodshed. The UN proposes a one-world government to restore order in the former United States, and hundreds of thousands of troops from a 50 nation coalition lands. Worst case scenario.

As pessimistic as I am, I really don't see that happening. The world learned once what happens when you awaken a sleeping giant. Americans will be BEYOND pi$$ed. Im not even gona type what will probably happen but it will make all other acts of "liberty", "Justice", and "Revenge" pale in comparison.

GunnyFreedom
02-02-2012, 11:31 PM
As pessimistic as I am, I really don't see that happening. The world learned once what happens when you awaken a sleeping giant. Americans will be BEYOND pi$$ed. Im not even gona type what will probably happen but it will make all other acts of "liberty", "Justice", and "Revenge" pale in comparison.

That's why I said "worst case scenario." That term generally implies the least-probable of all likely scenarios, and is generally used to illustrate a 'how will this play out' question. It will almost certainly be something short of the illustration I gave, but nevertheless that scenario is possible.

It's like using an ad-ridiculum rhetorical illustration to explain why argument A does not work. The stark contrast makes the rationale easier to see.

Indy Vidual
02-02-2012, 11:35 PM
Libertarians have been preaching about the "coming collapse" for decades. I wouldn't worry too much.

Hopefully, things will not be too bad.
Still worried...

Mark37snj
02-02-2012, 11:39 PM
It's like using an ad-ridiculum rhetorical illustration to explain why argument A does not work.

Ok that just made my head hurt. :(

Do we speak english of this forum anymore. :p

Indy Vidual
02-02-2012, 11:42 PM
...
Do we speak english of this forum anymore. :p

Yes:
If you cannot afford silver or gold, then you are screwed. :(
Where is the Hope For America! ? :)

Mark37snj
02-02-2012, 11:48 PM
Yes:
If you cannot afford silver or gold, then you are screwed. :(
Where is the Hope For America! ? :)

I actually been thinking about that. If you can't buy gold or silver what can you do? The best answer I got so far is FOOD, and a wood heater/stove. Also stocking up means you can sell them when the price is high and supply is low kind of like a poor mans silver and gold.

GunnyFreedom
02-02-2012, 11:49 PM
Ok that just made my head hurt. :(

Do we speak english of this forum anymore. :p

LOL sorry, I thought that was English, aside from the technical descriptor ad ridiculum.

Reducto ad ridiculum is a logical fallacy in arguments, but unlike what some believe I believe it has a valid place in illustrations. The ad ridiculum goes, "We can't keep taking in stray dogs or we'll end up with five hundred dogs in our little house!" It's a fallacy because nobody is going to collect 500 dogs, but it illustrates the point a lot better than saying 'ten.'

Sure there are people who use ad ridiculum in places they absolutely should not and just make themselves look stupid. For instance "Ron Paul wants Iran to have a nuclear bomb so they can wipe Israel off the map" is an example of ad ridiculum. It's blatantly untrue (hence 'logical fallacy') and a frankly dishonest rhetorical usage. But it is possible to illustrate flaws in an argument by taking it to the extreme to demonstrate where it breaks down without being blatantly dishonest.

Problem is, ad ridiculum is almost always used deceitfully. :(

GunnyFreedom
02-02-2012, 11:53 PM
I actually been thinking about that. If you can't buy gold or silver what can you do? The best answer I got so far is FOOD, and a wood heater/stove. Also stocking up means you can sell them when the price is high and supply is low kind of like a poor mans silver and gold.

Silver and gold will be almost worthless during the crisis. It's best used as a store of value to be redeemed once the crisis passes. During the crisis your best reserves will be food, toilet paper, cigarettes, cannafor20, coffee, and ammunition.

You have to be careful bartering with ammunition though, you don't want your own rounds coming back at you!

John F Kennedy III
02-02-2012, 11:58 PM
Simply, you're going to be hungry.
Probably cold when winter comes.

Winter is coming.

Mark37snj
02-02-2012, 11:59 PM
Silver and gold will be almost worthless during the crisis. It's best used as a store of value to be redeemed once the crisis passes. During the crisis your best reserves will be food, toilet paper, cigarettes, cannafor20, coffee, and ammunition.

You have to be careful bartering with ammunition though, you don't want your own rounds coming back at you!

Yeah my ammo will not be for sale, but TOILET PAPER, now thats something I don't plan on being without, and it will be especially popular with the ladies. :D

GunnyFreedom
02-03-2012, 12:09 AM
Yeah my ammo will not be for sale, but TOILET PAPER, now thats something I don't plan on being without, and it will be especially popular with the ladies. :D

Well, the thing about ammunition is it will be obscenely valuable. If you have an honest-to-goodness 'circle of trust' you could make it work. Especially if you have reloading equipment and supplies to make rounds enough to outfit a small army. "Here is a 30 round magazine, I want one whole cleaned and butchered deer carcass." I mean obscenely valuable. If you have 5000 rounds and a bunch of very well-trusted friends, you can have fresh meat for years and never have to pull a single trigger or clean a single gut, and still carry 2000 rounds out the other side of the crisis.

If you are a hermit with nobody you trust, then using ammo to barter is a horrible idea. But if you do have a relatively large circle of trust, there will be nothing more valuable during the crisis than ammunition.

NewRightLibertarian
02-03-2012, 12:29 AM
Well, the thing about ammunition is it will be obscenely valuable. If you have an honest-to-goodness 'circle of trust' you could make it work. Especially if you have reloading equipment and supplies to make rounds enough to outfit a small army. "Here is a 30 round magazine, I want one whole cleaned and butchered deer carcass." I mean obscenely valuable. If you have 5000 rounds and a bunch of very well-trusted friends, you can have fresh meat for years and never have to pull a single trigger or clean a single gut, and still carry 2000 rounds out the other side of the crisis.

If you are a hermit with nobody you trust, then using ammo to barter is a horrible idea. But if you do have a relatively large circle of trust, there will be nothing more valuable during the crisis than ammunition.

What do you think the likelihood of a dollar collapse and SHTF scenario happening is?

Mark37snj
02-03-2012, 12:37 AM
What do you think the likelihood of a dollar collapse and SHTF scenario happening is?

President Ron Paul - 10%

President Obama/Romney/Gingrich/Santorum/Trump - 100%

EDIT: I'm not very good in the financial sector, I keep thinking if maybe we can keep America from collapsing for another 4 years to give us one more shot, but man it's a stretch. Two terms of having a non Ron Paul principled President and we are absolutely toast.

GunnyFreedom
02-03-2012, 12:42 AM
What do you think the likelihood of a dollar collapse and SHTF scenario happening is?

I couldn't begin to put numbers on it. I think it's likely enough to hedge my bets and buy craptons of canned food and long term storage food, as well as storing up plenty of precious metals like copper brass and lead. I'm looking at this like a probability bell curve, with a collapse/shtf in the 2nd confidence interval. If I had to shut my eyes and toss a dart I'd guess 5%-10% for a hard-core SHTF, 15%-20% for a soft-core SHTF, maybe 40% for a 'serious depression' and approaching 50% for a dollar collapse of some form.

Athan
02-03-2012, 01:06 AM
I think the worst case scenarios Gunny are not as likely as some may believe here. Biggest reason I feel this way is because of a key element that is unique to our situation in the U.S. Ron Paul, Ron Paul supporters, and our network. Let's not kid ourselves. A LOT Of us have:

1. Gold of some holding.
2. Silver on hand in likely more plentiful numbers.
3. Guns.
4. Ammo.
5. Knowledge of what is coming.
6. Ron Paul and fellow supporters guidance on how to deal with it.
7. Our "political" network. We know local supporters and are pretty tight with one another.
8. We've had time.

I think we need to develop a guild like structure beyond just political strength and turn into more of a physical economic network. Say I have access to wind water pumps with a storage reservoir, chickens, land guns, ammo, (I live in a rural area, ok?) silver, gold, and tools. I'm not going to turn down my Ron Paul buddies and family if they are in need. I'll turn others away, but I'm not going to say "Hey Denny, sorry bud, but go somewhere else". By all means him, his family, and his Ron Paul friends are welcomed and only asked to help out. We need to develop our organization to be more than just a political group and be a bit more of a jack of all trades network.

Bartering, work, trade, travel, security, and etc. If for some reason we can't get Ron elected, we need to make our organization a bit more malleable and physically structured. Let the gop, democrats, and their supporters squabble amongst themselves. We are more than just waiting victims. We knew what was coming and we tried to stop it.

Gary4Liberty
02-03-2012, 07:38 AM
I always imagined it would start something like this. The president comes on tv in the morning for an announcement. He says something liike. "Due to the national debt of our country and the inreasing economic weakness in the EU, we must temporarily adopt a universal currency to get us through this difficult time. This is just temporary. As a nation in the world we must do our part to help the world be the great world that it once was.

Anti Federalist
02-03-2012, 07:46 AM
"Just In Time Logistics" dries up and the supermarket shelves go bare.

This is the single most important point to take away from any discussion of this.

The entire "global market" illusion is based on "just in time" logistics, that is as frail as a gossamer thread.

There are a million disruptions that could cause this to break down.

Yet another reason why I oppose globalized "free trade".

wgadget
02-03-2012, 07:51 AM
Europe may be giving us a hint. This was in today's Lew Rockwell blog, my all-time favorite by far.

http://lewrockwell.com/rep3/europe-plunging-into-depression.html

Note the Baltic Dry Index has fallen 61% since October! :eek:

Dsylexic
02-03-2012, 08:08 AM
This is the single most important point to take away from any discussion of this.

The entire "global market" illusion is based on "just in time" logistics, that is as frail as a gossamer thread.

There are a million disruptions that could cause this to break down.

Yet another reason why I oppose globalized "free trade".

i disagree. the intricate 'gosammer thread' is very well co-ordinated by prices and profits and losses.
it is robust to a large extent.ofcourse management types want it optimized.i dont accept retail/food is a TBTF type business.
million disruptions dont mean,million entities will just roll over and die,prices will tell people what to do.ofcourse food will end up costlier in a financial collapse,but that is not because of the intricate global trade.

Pericles
02-03-2012, 09:46 AM
This is the single most important point to take away from any discussion of this.

The entire "global market" illusion is based on "just in time" logistics, that is as frail as a gossamer thread.

There are a million disruptions that could cause this to break down.

Yet another reason why I oppose globalized "free trade".

This is why air travel and ports were re-opened within a week after 9/11. Long before the intended "security" measures could be put in place.

raystone
02-03-2012, 10:04 AM
Don't believe anyone who says there might be deflation.


I used to think the same thing. Then, I was turned onto the fact there's a quadrillion dollar credit bubble out there just starting to deflate. Our economy has been running on that, and it's about to end.

Automatic Earth argues convincingly, once the Euro crashes, we'll actually see the U.S. dollar strengthen for some time, before eventually crashing.

Perhaps the best description of the combination of deflation and inflation we can expect comes from Kyle Bass:

"I see deflation in the things you own and inflation in the things you need.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-02/kyle-bass-urges-texas-endowment-fund-to-hold-gold-hedge-as-assets-shrink.html

raystone
02-03-2012, 11:33 AM
Different populations. People were still by the large self reliant in those days. It was a largely independent farming culture that could sustain families, locales and communities if even just mere subsistence farming.

Today? No. Within weeks the food supply is wiped and 90% of the population have NO CLUE what to do...


Maybe you're right. Although it just occurred to me of the 200M-300M firearms in the U.S, 95%? are owned by conservative people with a sense of right and wrong, self sufficiency, and moral character. In other words, the firearm owners will not be the side committing the pillaging. It will be a rather shortlived zombie army.

Philhelm
02-03-2012, 12:30 PM
I think the worst case scenarios Gunny are not as likely as some may believe here. Biggest reason I feel this way is because of a key element that is unique to our situation in the U.S. Ron Paul, Ron Paul supporters, and our network. Let's not kid ourselves. A LOT Of us have:

1. Gold of some holding.
2. Silver on hand in likely more plentiful numbers.
3. Guns.
4. Ammo.
5. Knowledge of what is coming.
6. Ron Paul and fellow supporters guidance on how to deal with it.
7. Our "political" network. We know local supporters and are pretty tight with one another.
8. We've had time.

I think we need to develop a guild like structure beyond just political strength and turn into more of a physical economic network. Say I have access to wind water pumps with a storage reservoir, chickens, land guns, ammo, (I live in a rural area, ok?) silver, gold, and tools. I'm not going to turn down my Ron Paul buddies and family if they are in need. I'll turn others away, but I'm not going to say "Hey Denny, sorry bud, but go somewhere else". By all means him, his family, and his Ron Paul friends are welcomed and only asked to help out. We need to develop our organization to be more than just a political group and be a bit more of a jack of all trades network.

Bartering, work, trade, travel, security, and etc. If for some reason we can't get Ron elected, we need to make our organization a bit more malleable and physically structured. Let the gop, democrats, and their supporters squabble amongst themselves. We are more than just waiting victims. We knew what was coming and we tried to stop it.

I wouldn't turn away the Ron Paul folks either. For those that vote Ron Paul with me shall be my brothers.

PeacePlan
02-03-2012, 12:47 PM
Here is about as simple of an explanation that I can give. Paper dollars are worthless as no one wants them. Now imagine what it may be like to survive and get by.

rambone
02-03-2012, 04:47 PM
We are in the Weimar Republic boys. 1921 Germany.

The currency is going to inflate to obscene levels.

Things will be chaotic and people will demand a solution.

We will then be ready for a dictator.

Johnny Appleseed
02-03-2012, 05:09 PM
not even gold and silver will save your ass...both are too heavy to run with...the greatest commodity will be your survival skills...the way it was intended.

enoch150
02-04-2012, 02:23 AM
I used to think the same thing. Then, I was turned onto the fact there's a quadrillion dollar credit bubble out there just starting to deflate. Our economy has been running on that, and it's about to end.

Automatic Earth argues convincingly, once the Euro crashes, we'll actually see the U.S. dollar strengthen for some time, before eventually crashing.

Perhaps the best description of the combination of deflation and inflation we can expect comes from Kyle Bass:

"I see deflation in the things you own and inflation in the things you need.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-02/kyle-bass-urges-texas-endowment-fund-to-hold-gold-hedge-as-assets-shrink.html

I'm no expert on derivatives, but from what I've read, many of those quadrillion dollars in contracts cancel each other out.

Assume there's 2% deflation. The Fed doesn't want deflation. They print up another trillion or two. Or three. There isn't a practical limit to how much they can create. The banks sit on the money - they leave it on deposit at the Fed because there are to few good credit risks. So there's another 2% deflation. Unemployment starts rising again, housing and stock prices are dropping. The people are angry. Congress acts. What does Congress do? First they try bailouts. Then they force the banks to make loans. Lots and lots of them, to everyone who applies. Then the fractional reserve process kicks in. Inflation takes off. The Fed tries to retract the money, but it's to late. They're always to late.

You'll know when to bug out when the trade deficit turns to a trade surplus. It will mean the world is rejecting dollars. Most of the US, and even a good many on this board will celebrate when that happens. I'll be preparing for the worst.

Anti Federalist
02-04-2012, 06:33 AM
i disagree. the intricate 'gosammer thread' is very well co-ordinated by prices and profits and losses.
it is robust to a large extent.ofcourse management types want it optimized.i dont accept retail/food is a TBTF type business.
million disruptions dont mean,million entities will just roll over and die,prices will tell people what to do.ofcourse food will end up costlier in a financial collapse,but that is not because of the intricate global trade.

A disruption of 15 percent in worldwide petroluem supplies would shut the whole thing down in 72 hours.

Anti Federalist
02-04-2012, 06:34 AM
This is why air travel and ports were re-opened within a week after 9/11. Long before the intended "security" measures could be put in place.

+rep

thoughtomator
02-04-2012, 06:59 AM
You'll know when to bug out when the trade deficit turns to a trade surplus. It will mean the world is rejecting dollars. Most of the US, and even a good many on this board will celebrate when that happens. I'll be preparing for the worst.

It'll depend on how that happens. If it happens due to the US getting its act together that's a good thing.

GunnyFreedom
02-04-2012, 04:33 PM
i disagree. the intricate 'gosammer thread' is very well co-ordinated by prices and profits and losses.
it is robust to a large extent.ofcourse management types want it optimized.i dont accept retail/food is a TBTF type business.
million disruptions dont mean,million entities will just roll over and die,prices will tell people what to do.ofcourse food will end up costlier in a financial collapse,but that is not because of the intricate global trade.

JIT Logistics is anything but robust. A gas crunch, a trucker's strike, an LOC crisis, a currency crisis in either direction, any number of things could disrupt JIT logistics, and any disruption whatsoever leads to immediate supply failures. Depending on the critical nature of those particular supplies that could lead to either mild annoyance or going postal. It's wholly unpredictable because of the complex and highly orchestrated nature of the JIT logistic system.

XTreat
01-07-2013, 01:51 AM
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