SovereignMN
01-31-2012, 11:46 PM
A look at the percentages of the first 4 states compared to 2008 and some scenarios for the caucus states.
Iowa
Turnout: +2.34%
Paul: +120.33%
Romney: -.5%
Others: -14.68%
New Hampshire
Turnout: +3.82%
Paul: +210.64%
Romney: +29.19%
Others: -35.39%
South Carolina
Turnout: +35.55%
Paul: +385%
Romney: +146.77%
Others: -1.07%
Florida
Turnout: -14.66%
Paul: +85.69%
Romney: +27.59%
Others: -39.53%
Some things to note....
Florida is a closed primary so that would seem to hurt Paul.
The "Others" have yet to gain more votes than last time (Despite Newt's win in SC)
After Iowa, Romney is consistently increasing his support by at least a quarter. NH was probably an abberation with no John McCain (who was popular there) and being in his backyard.
Here are a couple scenarios for the caucus states:
Scenario 1...Turnout same, Paul +120%, Romney +25%
Nevada: Romney 64%, Paul 30%, Others 6%
Maine: Romney 65%, Paul 40%, Others -5% (statistically impossible)
Minnesota: Romney 52%, Paul 35%, Others 13%
Colorado: Romney 75%, Paul 18%, Others 7%
Evaluation: Some of these (Maine) are statistically impossible and the others seem highly unlikely. I doubt Newt/Santorum will combine for less than 10%! Throw this scenario out.
Scenario 2...Turnout +5%, Paul +100%, Romney +25%
Nevada: ROmney 61%, Paul 26%, Others 13%
Maine: Romney 62%, Paul 35%, Others 3%
Minnesota: Romney 49%, Paul 30%, Others 21%
Colorado: Romney 71%, Paul 16%, Others 13%
Evaluation: Still pretty unlikely but Minnesota seems somewhat plausible.
Scenario 3...Turnout +2%, Paul +200%, Romney +25%
Nevada: ROmney 63%, Paul 40%, Others -3%
Maine: Romney 63%, Paul 54%, Others -17%
Minnesota: Romney 51%, Paul 46%, Others 3%
Colorado: Romney 73%, Paul 25%, Others 2%
Evaluation: Not going to happen.
Scenario 4...Turnout +10%, Paul +100%, Romney +25%
Nevada: ROmney 58%, Paul 25%, Others 17%
Maine: Romney 59%, Paul 33%, Others 8%
Minnesota: Romney 47%, Paul 29%, Others 24%
Colorado: Romney 68%, Paul 15%, Others 17%
Evaluation: Getting closer but still doesn't seem that plausible.
Conclusion...the caucus states are NOT (i.e. CANNOT) going to continue the trends we have seen. Something has to give. Either turnout has to be way off or Paul and/or Romney's support has to alter sharply. Nobody can predict what the caucus states will do. KEEP PHONING AND GET OUT THE VOTE!
Iowa
Turnout: +2.34%
Paul: +120.33%
Romney: -.5%
Others: -14.68%
New Hampshire
Turnout: +3.82%
Paul: +210.64%
Romney: +29.19%
Others: -35.39%
South Carolina
Turnout: +35.55%
Paul: +385%
Romney: +146.77%
Others: -1.07%
Florida
Turnout: -14.66%
Paul: +85.69%
Romney: +27.59%
Others: -39.53%
Some things to note....
Florida is a closed primary so that would seem to hurt Paul.
The "Others" have yet to gain more votes than last time (Despite Newt's win in SC)
After Iowa, Romney is consistently increasing his support by at least a quarter. NH was probably an abberation with no John McCain (who was popular there) and being in his backyard.
Here are a couple scenarios for the caucus states:
Scenario 1...Turnout same, Paul +120%, Romney +25%
Nevada: Romney 64%, Paul 30%, Others 6%
Maine: Romney 65%, Paul 40%, Others -5% (statistically impossible)
Minnesota: Romney 52%, Paul 35%, Others 13%
Colorado: Romney 75%, Paul 18%, Others 7%
Evaluation: Some of these (Maine) are statistically impossible and the others seem highly unlikely. I doubt Newt/Santorum will combine for less than 10%! Throw this scenario out.
Scenario 2...Turnout +5%, Paul +100%, Romney +25%
Nevada: ROmney 61%, Paul 26%, Others 13%
Maine: Romney 62%, Paul 35%, Others 3%
Minnesota: Romney 49%, Paul 30%, Others 21%
Colorado: Romney 71%, Paul 16%, Others 13%
Evaluation: Still pretty unlikely but Minnesota seems somewhat plausible.
Scenario 3...Turnout +2%, Paul +200%, Romney +25%
Nevada: ROmney 63%, Paul 40%, Others -3%
Maine: Romney 63%, Paul 54%, Others -17%
Minnesota: Romney 51%, Paul 46%, Others 3%
Colorado: Romney 73%, Paul 25%, Others 2%
Evaluation: Not going to happen.
Scenario 4...Turnout +10%, Paul +100%, Romney +25%
Nevada: ROmney 58%, Paul 25%, Others 17%
Maine: Romney 59%, Paul 33%, Others 8%
Minnesota: Romney 47%, Paul 29%, Others 24%
Colorado: Romney 68%, Paul 15%, Others 17%
Evaluation: Getting closer but still doesn't seem that plausible.
Conclusion...the caucus states are NOT (i.e. CANNOT) going to continue the trends we have seen. Something has to give. Either turnout has to be way off or Paul and/or Romney's support has to alter sharply. Nobody can predict what the caucus states will do. KEEP PHONING AND GET OUT THE VOTE!