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View Full Version : Our 2 worst 2008 states are behind us, 46 states to go




nyrgoal99
01-31-2012, 07:25 PM
South Carolina and Florida were the worst for Paul in 2008.



ONWARD

James Madison
01-31-2012, 07:27 PM
The only reason the other states were better is because everyone except Ron and McCain had dropped out.

swissaustrian
01-31-2012, 07:27 PM
SURGING from now on!

RonPaul101.com
01-31-2012, 07:28 PM
The only reason the other states were better is because everyone except Ron and McCain had dropped out.

If by that you are asking for Newt and Santorum to drop, I agree with you... :D

James Madison
01-31-2012, 07:29 PM
If by that you are asking for Newt and Santorum to drop, I agree with you... :D

I wish. Ron polls terribly in head-to-head matchups with Romney.

alucard13mmfmj
01-31-2012, 07:34 PM
Newt and Santorum throws a wrench in our strategy ^^

slamhead
01-31-2012, 07:38 PM
My predictions based on a simple law of averages from the first four results.

Nevada 37.24%
Maine 49.47%
Colorado 21.70%
Conn 10.85%
Minn 42.55%
Missouri 12.20%

Okie RP fan
01-31-2012, 07:40 PM
Newt and Santorum throws a wrench in our strategy ^^

I think it's part of the grand plan to make sure he doesn't enter Tampa with too many delegates.

alucard13mmfmj
01-31-2012, 08:10 PM
I think it's part of the grand plan to make sure he doesn't enter Tampa with too many delegates.

Newt will be there for Anti-Romney and Santorum is there to suck up evangelical votes. But Doug Wead says some people in the campaign think it might work in their advantage. I wonder how it helps us XD...

acptulsa
01-31-2012, 08:18 PM
Newt and Santorum throws a wrench in our strategy ^^

No, they don't. Our strategy is to win this the only place it can be won--at the convention.

Like the OP says--ONWARD!

Sematary
01-31-2012, 08:25 PM
My apologies for Ct. I love where I live but politically speaking, this state sucks ass.

Okie RP fan
01-31-2012, 08:25 PM
No, they don't. Our strategy is to win this the only place it can be won--at the convention.

Like the OP says--ONWARD!

Some of us are under the impression that unless we start showing some sort of momentum and "electability," then the convention is a moot point.

The campaign needs money and new donors aren't going to be as willing if they keep seeing 4th place finishes for Paul.

sailingaway
01-31-2012, 08:28 PM
The only reason the other states were better is because everyone except Ron and McCain had dropped out.

Really? Because Ron was polling first in South Dakota a couple of months ago, when all the main players were still in, this year. There is a sort of known division of the 'Goldwater' states and those are where I would expect Ron to do best. West, mountain west, and it would seem north east, this go round.

Had Santorum dropped out, I'd consider Ron to have a good chance at Missouri, but with Santorum in, that is less likely imho

CTRattlesnake
01-31-2012, 08:29 PM
My apologies for Ct. I love where I live but politically speaking, this state sucks ass.

This x1000


Were trapped between big time liberals and wall street establishment voters

Cyberbrain
01-31-2012, 08:30 PM
Thank you to the 120,000+ (and counting) Floridians who voted for Paul and for all your hard work. You're the best.

sailingaway
01-31-2012, 08:30 PM
Wow that sounds like a lot of people in NV!!

Agorism
01-31-2012, 08:30 PM
My predictions based on a simple law of averages from the first four results.

Nevada 37.24%
Maine 49.47%
Colorado 21.70%
Conn 10.85%
Minn 42.55%
Missouri 12.20%

How you come up with this?

sailingaway
01-31-2012, 08:32 PM
Some of us are under the impression that unless we start showing some sort of momentum and "electability," then the convention is a moot point.

The campaign needs money and new donors aren't going to be as willing if they keep seeing 4th place finishes for Paul.

He won't have a fourth in NV or Maine, that's for sure. I'd love first in Maine for momentum, but the party regulars hold so many automatic delegates we are going to really have to swamp the caucuses to take it. Here's hoping!!

sailingaway
01-31-2012, 08:32 PM
How you come up with this?

You can't average out Ron's bad states and apply them to Ron's good states...can you?

Okie RP fan
01-31-2012, 08:33 PM
He won't have a fourth in NV or Maine, that's for sure. I'd love first in Maine for momentum, but the party regulars hold so many automatic delegates we are going to really have to swamp the caucuses to take it. Here's hoping!!

Let's hope.

nyrgoal99,

I think we should use an "ONWARD!" theme for the next week or longer.

thoughtomator
01-31-2012, 08:44 PM
Paul is the only candidate who doesn't live in either DC or Boston... I have a feeling that with revolution in the air there will be a bigger fight out there than many expect.

Liberty74
01-31-2012, 09:11 PM
No, they don't. Our strategy is to win this the only place it can be won--at the convention.

Like the OP says--ONWARD!

Anyone who thinks this is gonna be won at the convention is fooling themselves. Unless Ron wins the delegates decisively, the powers to be in the Republican Party who hate Ron, aren't gonna give us crap at the convention. You can mark my word. We will be lucky if Ron gets a prime time speaking slot.

seawolf
01-31-2012, 09:15 PM
All of us had better redouble our efforts, especially in Donating to the Campaign.

Santorum was giddy tonight on CNN stating that his Campaign had just raised $4.2 Million in the month of January and over $200,000 on line thus far today.

Sadly, I believe Ron Paul did not come very close to that figure, by my best and most optimistic count, at best $3.8 Million and on today's RP Daily Donation Tracker just $30,000.

All of us have to commit to the No One but Ron Money Bomb during the week of February 14th!!! We need to raise at least $5 Million to fund the Campaign's Super Tuesday, March 6th efforts.

Without Money we go nowhere!!

Student Of Paulism
01-31-2012, 09:16 PM
...and it would seem north east, this go round.



I hope you aren't including Jersey and NY in that equation, because he will be getting slaughtered in those two states for sure. I see the whole NE (New England) states being 'not so hot' either all because it hits too close to Romneyville. But yea, as for NY, i won't even get into why he will be killed there, it's self explanatory. And as for NJ (my state) my sell-out, loud mouth, blowhard Governor is a huge Romney leg humper and will do all he can to be sure Romney wins here.

opinionatedfool
01-31-2012, 09:28 PM
46 states left AND 7 territories!

Mark37snj
01-31-2012, 10:24 PM
This x1000


Were trapped between big time liberals and wall street establishment voters

Don't forget NJ is close by giving you our bad mojo, sorry about that. :(

acptulsa
01-31-2012, 10:43 PM
Anyone who thinks this is gonna be won at the convention is fooling themselves. Unless Ron wins the delegates decisively, the powers to be in the Republican Party who hate Ron, aren't gonna give us crap at the convention. You can mark my word. We will be lucky if Ron gets a prime time speaking slot.

Who says they will be the only people there? Who says there are enough people in the One Percent to fill the hall? Who says the One Percent live in every state? Who says the One Percent will squeeze We, the People out of participation? Who says they'll find people to carry water for them to Tampa?

We, the People will be wearing a new title this summer: Delegate.

JasonM
02-01-2012, 01:25 AM
South Carolina and Florida were the worst for Paul in 2008.

ONWARD

Would love to see some polls to back up that assessment

Edward
02-01-2012, 01:39 AM
Would love to see some polls to back up that assessment

SC and FL were among the worst, but there were a couple (e.g. AL, GA) that were even worse. As other candidates dropped out, he eeked out a few percentage points higher in many places.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Republican_presidential_primar ies

Xenophage
02-01-2012, 02:14 AM
Newt and Santorum throws a wrench in our strategy ^^

We were doing better with more people in the race.

Face it: The "anti-romney" crowd that is currently voting Gingrich and Santorum would rather vote Romney than Paul.

JasonM
02-01-2012, 02:21 AM
We were doing better with more people in the race.

Face it: The "anti-romney" crowd that is currently voting Gingrich and Santorum would rather vote Romney than Paul.

Or simply stay home thinking the nomination is already locked up. The two-man race strategy didn't work out against McCain after huckabee dropped out, did it. If huck had dropped, Mitt Romney might have at least tried to stick it out. But he knew that with Huck in the race there was no point. =/

So I agree, we will fare better if this is a close nomination right up to the end.

But there's no getting around that Florida sucked a lot of cash out of the Gingrich campaign.

PolicyReader
02-01-2012, 04:04 AM
People staying home isn't actually bad for Paul (better if they didn't stay home and voted for him of course but...)
Fewer people voting means that Ron Paul supporters are a higher % of those voting and an increased chance of becoming delegates as well (fewer other voters + less enthusiasm = fewer people signing up to be delegates)

There's another thing to be considered in a two man race, the media black out will be a lot harder to maintain in that situation and there are more voters who would go for Paul then we are seeing because many voters know little/nothing about what Paul is actually saying or where he stands on the issues.

Splitting the vote isn't bad for Paul up to a point, but with a few wins under his belt Paul can stand up in a head to head with anyone on the GOP docket.

The rest is all down to timing.

JasonM
02-01-2012, 05:22 AM
People staying home isn't actually bad for Paul (better if they didn't stay home and voted for him of course but...)
Fewer people voting means that Ron Paul supporters are a higher % of those voting and an increased chance of becoming delegates as well (fewer other voters + less enthusiasm = fewer people signing up to be delegates)

There's another thing to be considered in a two man race, the media black out will be a lot harder to maintain in that situation and there are more voters who would go for Paul then we are seeing because many voters know little/nothing about what Paul is actually saying or where he stands on the issues.

Splitting the vote isn't bad for Paul up to a point, but with a few wins under his belt Paul can stand up in a head to head with anyone on the GOP docket.

The rest is all down to timing.

41k, 39k and 20k is much better than 41k and 20k, since the former is 41% vs 39% vs 20% while the latter is like 68% vs 32%. Media deals in percentages.

And if 2008 is any indication, a two man race isn't going to be any consolation if we're only getting 15-20% while romney or gingrich ends up with 50%+, esp if the guy getting more votes than us decides to drop out "for the good of the party".

That said, even the media is admitting we'll manage to get at least a couple hundred delegates. But an interview with Karl Rove had him saying that the nomination process "is rigged against" a brokered convention scenario.

And the media is speculating that someone may even jump in late in the game if the situation looks like it will come to that, despite not even being a candidate in like 35 states or what not, and conceivably end up with the nomination (making the popular vote utterly pointless).

We GOT to win somewhere decisively or else a brokered convention is the last chance we got. Otherwise, it's 2008 all over again except we get better percentages proving that we've swelled but not quite enough to get a victory.

alucard13mmfmj
02-01-2012, 05:25 AM
at least things cant get any worse right? :D other states should be more receptive of RP.

fatjohn
02-01-2012, 06:19 AM
The only reason the other states were better is because everyone except Ron and McCain had dropped out.

Just go with the spin.