Why no NV polls with only a week to go?

[RonPaul101.com]

Should we be seeing polls for NV and maybe ME, MN, CO real soon if not yesterday? The media had FL polls to talk about on CNN before the SC vote was even reported.

[Drex]

They probably know we would be top 1-2 in those states and they don't want to report them haha :D

[rich34]

Or worst, Ron could be very close to pulling one off so they're going to ignore it... On a side note, I really hope the campaign runs some commericials beforr before the other clowns show up..

[mavtek]

I saw a poll from PPP I believe, you don't want to see it if I remember correctly. Let just hope we get 3rd in Fl and then push hard in Nevada!

[luctor-et-emergo]

I saw a poll from PPP I believe, you don't want to see it if I remember correctly. Let just hope we get 3rd in Fl and then push hard in Nevada!

The last PPP poll (that was included in RCP) was in October last year. And was like this;
Romney 29, Gingrich 15, Paul 7, Santorum 2. (47% undecided or other candidate)

The last poll that is included there (totally unknown accuracy; Las vegas Journal poll ?) was done in December last year;
Romney 33, Gingrich 29, Paul 13, Santorum 3. (22% undecided or other candidate)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/february_gop_caucuses_primaries.html

So basically it's all guesses towards who took the people that polled for Bachmann, Perry, Huntsman and maybe even Cain ?

[RonPaul101.com]

The last PPP poll (that was included in RCP) was in October last year. And was like this;
Romney 29, Gingrich 15, Paul 7, Santorum 2. (47% undecided or other candidate)

The last poll that is included there (totally unknown accuracy; Las vegas Journal poll ?) was done in December last year;
Romney 33, Gingrich 29, Paul 13, Santorum 3. (22% undecided or other candidate)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/february_gop_caucuses_primaries.html

So basically it's all guesses towards who took the people that polled for Bachmann, Perry, Huntsman and maybe even Cain ?

Paul at 7% seems unlikely, as I can't imagine him underperforming 2008 results of 14%. I think polls from last year might as well be polls from 1988... too much has changed.

[mwkaufman]

The last PPP poll (that was included in RCP) was in October last year. And was like this;
Romney 29, Gingrich 15, Paul 7, Santorum 2. (47% undecided or other candidate)

The last poll that is included there (totally unknown accuracy; Las vegas Journal poll ?) was done in December last year;
Romney 33, Gingrich 29, Paul 13, Santorum 3. (22% undecided or other candidate)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/february_gop_caucuses_primaries.html

So basically it's all guesses towards who took the people that polled for Bachmann, Perry, Huntsman and maybe even Cain ?

I don't trust the LVRJ poll at all, it doesn't look like they surveyed likely caucus goers even.

[da32130]

Should we be seeing polls for NV and maybe ME, MN, CO real soon if not yesterday? The media had FL polls to talk about on CNN before the SC vote was even reported.

Don't worry about the poll numbers. If we do well in Nevada, Minnesota, Maine, and Colorado it won't be because of high poll numbers compared with other states. It will be because of turnout.

Here is the impact of turnout in 2008, and a results comparison with 2012 (all results from before Feb 10, when most candidates were still in, listed by date):

caucus:
Iowa 10% (21% in 2012)
Nevada 14%
Maine 18%
Alaska 17%
Colorado 9%
Minnesota 16%
Montana 25%
North Dakota 21%
Washington 22%
Kansas 11%

primary:
New Hampshire 8% (23% in 2012)
Michagan 6%
South Carolina 4% (13% in 2012)
Florida 3%
Alabama 3%
Tennessee 6%
Connecticut 4%
Arizona 4%
Georgia 3%
Delaware 4%
California 4%
Arkansas 5%
etc.

The lowest caucus was 9%, the highest primary pre Feb 10th in 2008 was 8%.
The highest caucus was 25%, the lowest primary was 3%.

Turnout can make a huge difference in the poorly attended caucuses.

[airborne373]

Nevada? What? There is no such place, just ask CNN.

[MyEyesTheyBurn]

Or worst, Ron could be very close to pulling one off so they're going to ignore it... On a side note, I really hope the campaign runs some commericials beforr before the other clowns show up.. I hear Ron Paul commercials on KKOH (Reno talk radio). The other major talk radio up here is KKFT, but I honestly haven't been listening to it as much because I've been on the road a lot and AM reaches further than FM.

Romney has been running ads on KKOH, at least twice an hour. I hear Ron Paul commercials maybe 3 times a day. I also just got my first piece of campaign mail from Romney yesterday - it was an anti-Gingrich mailer.

Not sure about the Vegas market, maybe someone can chime in from down there.

[MyEyesTheyBurn]

Nevada? What? There is no such place, just ask CNN.It's like Canada. It doesn't exist.

[slamhead]

If the law of averages holds from the first three races I am hoping Ron will have 39% based on 2008 results.

[RonPaul101.com]

If the law of averages holds from the first three races I am hoping Ron will have 39% based on 2008 results.

Someone will have to disappoint in NV, but who? If Romney got 50% of the vote in 2008, will he not live up to those numbers again? I would assume he will still get a lot of votes given his relevancy this cycle. Will Paul get 28%+ (double 2008) given his rate of improvement in other states from 2008 to 2012? Will Gingrich losing FL REALLY flatten him in NV where Newt now only gets ~15%-18% and finishes under Romney and Paul?

I think the last circumstance is the most likely of the three and thankfully that works best for us. There are only so many votes to go around and if Romney wins FL I doubt he will tank in NV. So the question is do we beat Newt and by how much? Newt a distant 3rd in NV would be nice, but perhaps I'm getting ahead of myself.

Does this seem plausible for NV, while still leaving us a chance to outperform, or am I giving too much credit to Romney and not enough to Gingrich?

Romney 49%
Paul 30%
Gingrich 13%
Santorum 5%