3rd place in FL now a possibility?

[pauliticalfan]

While I'm certainly not expecting FL to give us a third place, what with it's unfavorable demographics and the fact we haven't campaigned there, it now appears to be within reach. 4 new polls (Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, Insider Advantage, We Ask America, and PPP 1-day) show us tied with Santorum right around 10-13 percent. Even if we don't get third, we appear likely to crack double digits, which would be an accomplishment in such a large state.

Intrade currently gives us about a 17 percent chance of getting third. I'd say that's about right. It's not gonna be easy, but it could happen. What say you? How likely is it, and why?

[Kharan]

I'll be voting for him tomorrow :) I sure hope for a third..

[BrittanySligar]

After SC, I'm starting to think that the corrupt pollsters are pumping Paul so the pundits can spin his results as an under-performance.

[doctorfunk]

Not to be too negative, but I don't think it makes that much of a difference. Delegates are the main goal and you only get them from FL with a 1st place finish.

[Trigonx]

I'm guessing there is gonna be a little larger dose of Santorum in the media today.

[CaptUSA]

I kind of doubt it'll happen. Newt seems to be on the downside of his latest surge. I would guess that helps Santorum.

I bet the media keeps surging and deflating these two as long as possible.

[Sarge]

Here are the 2008 results,

"John McCain 701,761 36.0% 57
Mitt Romney 604,932 31.0 0
Rudolph W. Giuliani 286,089 14.7 0
Mike Huckabee 262,681 13.5 0
Ron Paul 62,887 3.2 0
Fred D. Thompson 22,668 1.2 0
Alan Keyes 4,060 0.2 0
Duncan Hunter 2,847 0.1 0
Tom Tancredo "

Looking at the numbers, I am guessing 3rd place is going to need 300K or more votes.

[No Free Beer]

I am always hopeful...

But I don't see it...

[Darthbrooklyn]

Not to be too negative, but I don't think it makes that much of a difference. Delegates are the main goal and you only get them from FL with a 1st place finish.

It DOES make a difference in terms of perception on electability.

[centure7]

I thought Ron Paul went to Florida?

[sunsense]

On a positive, the Ron Paul voters are more determined to vote.

So keep swaying people. Once they get the inspiration, make sure they vote.

Offer to take them to the polling station.

[NinjaPirate]

I hold no expectations here.

But on a more positive note, I placed my vote for RP last week! :D

[Liberty74]

Not to be too negative, but I don't think it makes that much of a difference. Delegates are the main goal and you only get them from FL with a 1st place finish.

Perception matters for the long haul. If you can't get momentum, delegates or no delegates, you aren't gonna win.

[sunsense]

My wife voted Ron Paul by mail on the 4th Jan.

I like to vote in person (its 5 blocks away) so will vote Ron Paul tomorrow. :-)

[sailingaway]

It DOES make a difference in terms of perception on electability.

Yeah, I'd like it. But Santorum is already going to Missouri, Colorado, NV and Minnesota. Last night he had a tele-town hall in Minnesota. We have to get to work there, and the difference between 3d and 4th in Fl is only a matter of feeling better.

[RonPaul101.com]

Not to be too negative, but I don't think it makes that much of a difference. Delegates are the main goal and you only get them from FL with a 1st place finish.

Delegates are the key overall, like a macro-plan. But coming in 3rd in FL would help just like it would have in SC. Gingrich will come out of FL better than us in momentum even though we'll both leave with no delegates.

[Johncjackson]

It DOES make a difference in terms of perception on electability.

4th Place= Not mentioned at all
3rd Place= Not mentioned at all

[Bruno]

4th Place= Not mentioned at all
3rd Place= Not mentioned at all

But if Rick gets 4th, the mention he will get will be negative, and that is what we are looking for.

[Tod]

It DOES make a difference in terms of perception on electability.

This ^ !

[Tod]

But if Rick gets 4th, the mention he will get will be negative, and that is what we are looking for.

and THIS ^ !

[Darthbrooklyn]

People are voting Newt/Mitt based on the perception that they have the best chance to beat Obama.. Logic tells us that wont happen, but its all about perception.. Perception is reality

[Liberty74]

But if Rick gets 4th, the mention he will get will be negative, and that is what we are looking for.

Plus there will be more pressure on him to drop out. So it does matter in a 4 way race.

[doctorfunk]

Santorum seems to be in until at least super tuesday, regardless of how he does in FL. The media coverage won't be substantially different in 3rd or 4th, neither will be seen as front runners. I don't think a 3rd place will substantially change perception and any change will likely be very short lived.

[JimInNY]

If RP gets 4th it will be all over the media. RP, are you ready to drop out? RP, doesn't 4th in Florida prove you're unelectable? Blah blah blah....

[alucard13mmfmj]

i kinda felt down after South Carolina XD... I hope FLoridians wont let us down.