When do we start finding out Maine results?

[skyorbit]

tracy

[69360]

The Maine GOP announces them on the 11th.

[skyorbit]

??? I thought they were this weekend. Maybe I don't understand how it works.

[69360]

They take place over a week long peroid, actually a bit more than a week, some started early. Every location sets their own date and time.

[Agorism]

Intrade heavily favors Romney with Paul in second btw.

Just to keep things in perspective.

[69360]

Intrade heavily favors Romney with Paul in second btw.

Just to keep things in perspective.

Meh, I think intrade is wrong. Yeah I'm doubting it.

Each of the 6 events Ron held in Maine had probably 300 people at them. If all of them vote, that's 1800 right there. If they each bring just 1 friend that's 3600 votes.

Romney won with 2800 votes last time.

I think the odds of Ron winning Maine are much more favorable than Intrade's odds.

I'm usually realistic about this election and think Ron's odds of being the GOP nominee are extremely slim. But I think his chances of winning ME are actually very good.

[seapilot]

Intrade heavily favors Romney with Paul in second btw.

Just to keep things in perspective.

Does Intrade participate in local polling?

[gerryb]

Does Intrade participate in local polling?

Intrade participates in everything. It's a gambling site, anyone can place a wager.

[parocks]

There was a caucus today, in Lincoln. I'm wondering how we did at that caucus. That information should be available and I'm wondering why we haven't heard anything.

In NH, we hear about Dixville Notch and Harts Location early, why aren't we hearing these results.

Tomorrow, Sunday, there's a caucus less than a mile from Unity College in Unity, ME.

[sailingaway]

Meh, I think intrade is wrong. Yeah I'm doubting it.

Each of the 6 events Ron held in Maine had probably 300 people at them. If all of them vote, that's 1800 right there. If they each bring just 1 friend that's 3600 votes.

Romney won with 2800 votes last time.

I think the odds of Ron winning Maine are much more favorable than Intrade's odds.

I'm usually realistic about this election and think Ron's odds of being the GOP nominee are extremely slim. But I think his chances of winning ME are actually very good.

At least two of Ron's events today had over 1000 people, actually, but that doesn't mean all of them were 'sold', they were 'shopping' and checking him out, many of them, I'm sure.

[sailingaway]

There was a caucus today, in Lincoln. I'm wondering how we did at that caucus. That information should be available and I'm wondering why we haven't heard anything.

In NH, we hear about Dixville Notch and Harts Location early, why aren't we hearing these results.

Tomorrow, Sunday, there's a caucus less than a mile from Unity College in Unity, ME.

we might hear, through the grapevine of people who are there.

[alucard13mmfmj]

a week long caucus? wow why is the voting turn out so low before? lol. we can win maine easily if the young ron paul supporters go and vote o_O.. i mean how hard is it to get 3000+ish voters to vote for RP?

[freneticentropy]

Meh, I think intrade is wrong. Yeah I'm doubting it.

Each of the 6 events Ron held in Maine had probably 300 people at them. If all of them vote, that's 1800 right there. If they each bring just 1 friend that's 3600 votes.

Romney won with 2800 votes last time.

I think the odds of Ron winning Maine are much more favorable than Intrade's odds.

I'm usually realistic about this election and think Ron's odds of being the GOP nominee are extremely slim. But I think his chances of winning ME are actually very good.

Those were 2800 delegates at the convention, not votes in the straw poll.

[Hook]

Meh, I think intrade is wrong. Yeah I'm doubting it.

.

You do that at your own peril. Intrade is far more accurate than the polls. And so far, it has gotten the votes right.

If you believe in the free market, you should put a lot of stock in Intrade, because they operate on the same information-aggregating principles.

[sailingaway]

a week long caucus? wow why is the voting turn out so low before? lol. we can win maine easily if the young ron paul supporters go and vote o_O.. i mean how hard is it to get 3000+ish voters to vote for RP?

I would expect the number to be bigger this time. Independents and Dems voted on the Dem primaries in 2008, this time there really IS no Dem primary and independents, at least, can register at the caucus.

[sailingaway]

You do that at your own peril. Intrade is far more accurate than the polls. And so far, it has gotten the votes right.

If you believe in the free market, you should put a lot of stock in Intrade, because they operate on the same information-aggregating principles.

But intrade TODAY is based on info today and it changes and we may be more close to what Ron is doing. On the Ames straw poll day bets went back and forth with announced candidate ticket sales. We were watching closely, and could tell as well as they could.

[69360]

You do that at your own peril. Intrade is far more accurate than the polls. And so far, it has gotten the votes right.

If you believe in the free market, you should put a lot of stock in Intrade, because they operate on the same information-aggregating principles.

Enough people came out over the weekend to the rally to have won the caucuses last time. That's a damn good sign no matter what a gambling website says. I think Ron might win Maine and I don't think the chances are slim.

[harikaried]

Those were 2800 delegates at the convention, not votes in the straw poll.It looks like there was no straw poll in Maine for 2008:

2012: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/ME-R
Municipal Caucuses / non-binding straw poll: Sunday 29 January - Saturday 3 March 2012
District Caucuses and State Convention: Saturday 5 May - Sunday 6 May 2012

2008: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/ME-R.phtml
Municipal Caucuses: Friday 1 February - Sunday 3 February 2008
District Caucuses and State Convention: Saturday 3 May 2008

[alucard13mmfmj]

just gotta worry about fraud =P...

[tsai3904]

It looks like there was no straw poll in Maine for 2008

The process for 2012 is exactly the same as it was in 2008.

[Barrex]

Everyone is bragging how Ron Paul grassroots are impressive and organized. If campaign and grassroots dont get 3500+ people to vote for Ron it will be failure and a bad sign.

[thoughtomator]

InTrade had Romney winning SC until the last week.

[parocks]

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?356558-Lincoln-Super-Caucus-1-28-12 - now

[parocks]

Everyone is bragging how Ron Paul grassroots are impressive and organized. If campaign and grassroots dont get 3500+ people to vote for Ron it will be failure and a bad sign.

people are confusing votes and delegates.

100% of precincts reporting[14]Candidate State Delegates Percentage Delegates
Mitt Romney 2,837 51.67% 20
John McCain 1,176 21.42% 0
Ron Paul 1,002 18.25% 1
Mike Huckabee 318 5.79% 0
Fred Thompson* 8 0.15% 0
Rudy Giuliani* 3 0.05% 0
Alan Keyes 1 0.02% 0
Uncommitted 136 2.48% 0
Write-in 9 0.16% 0
Total 5,491 100% 21

but see

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/ME.html