The Mathematical Facts of the Nomination Process

[Philosophy_of_Politics]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=y5RKleqMjuE#!

[Philosophy_of_Politics]

Great video.

[mmadness]

Thanks for this - reposted this in the stickied delegates thread.

[dancjm]

If Newt wins Florida for example, the race would look like this, with the top of the graph representing the finish line, which someone needs to cross.

http://nces.ed.gov/nceskids/createagraph/graphwrite.asp?ID=b90fffa9fcb6401ba898201845e35027&file=png

[tsai3904]

If Newt wins Florida for example, the race would look like this, with the top of the graph representing the finish line, which someone needs to cross.

Iowa's delegates have not been allocated. Also, a candidate needs 1,144 delegates, not 1,245.

[Indiana4Paul]

Math doesn't matter, the narrative does...

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/kIbEj1CIpuU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[BrittanySligar]

Those are not the delegate counts. We will not know until the state conventions in caucus states (like IA). McCain got 13% at the Iowa caucus in 08 and got all 40 delegates, becasue when the state convention comes around, neo-con delegates coalesce around the front runner.

[dancjm]

Iowa's delegates have not been allocated. Also, a candidate needs 1,144 delegates, not 1,245.

I feel like Newt having just been Paul'd.

I couldnt get the scale exact, but the idea was just to demonstrate that this will be far from over even after the next few races.

[Gary4Liberty]

If Newt wins Florida for example, the race would look like this, with the top of the graph representing the finish line, which someone needs to cross.

http://nces.ed.gov/nceskids/createagraph/graphwrite.asp?ID=b90fffa9fcb6401ba898201845e35027&file=png thats a nice chart can you updated it as wwe go along please?

[mmadness]

bump

[Steve-in-NY]

We have a real chance of coming in 1st in 7 states and 2nd in 5 if this remains a 4 man race imo.
I figure we have a good chance of this happening particularly since 6 of those 7 states I believe we can take 1st in vote by 3/6 and 3 out of the 5 2nd places I think we can get fall in the same time frame, and its very possible that no one is going to drop by then.

This is crunch time people. Get out of your comfort zone. Make a sacrifice (time, money, comfort).
Make a goal to get a minimum of 1 more person on board each week, especially if you are in those early states.
Those of us that are in the later states, we have more of a burden as we must push harder, and for longer. Hearts and minds, folks. We are within striking distance! Call from home too!

[mmadness]

bump

[Tod]

If Newt wins Florida for example, the race would look like this, with the top of the graph representing the finish line, which someone needs to cross.

http://nces.ed.gov/nceskids/createagraph/graphwrite.asp?ID=b90fffa9fcb6401ba898201845e35027&file=png

Great video and chart! Would it be helpful to somehow tweak the chart to reflect the fact that some candidates are not eligible for all of the delegates by virtue of the fact that they either aren't on the ballot or, in at least Ohio's case, they didn't qualify for all of the available delegates because there were some areas where they didn't collect enough signatures? Not sure the best way to represent that, maybe by starting out at minus X number of delegates, where X is the number they will never be able to win?

[muh_roads]

thought Paul had 10?

[PolicyReader]

Thought this might help in the mathematics/chart update efforts :) (also note the apportioned aspects listed and remember than if we get enough of our people as delegates, this means signing up to be not just getting voted in, that a brokered convention could turn completely in Pauls favor. But we need people signing up as delegates)

Delegates
Total: 2,286
Needed to clinch the nomination: 1,144
Pre- Super Tuesday: 354
Super Tuesday: 437
Post Super Tuesday: 396
Total Pre-April: 1187
April: 484
May: 276
June: 339
Total Post April: 1099

Note: Totals listed are time coded to the general primary/caucus vote in each respective state. Many states, especially caucus states like Iowa will not actually assign delegates until weeks after general statewide voting concludes (Iowa for example holds it’s caucus on January 3rd, and it’s state convention does not conclude until the 16th of June)

Full Primary/Caucus Calendar


January 3, 2012
Iowa (caucus - Closed) – 28 total delegates (State Convention: Saturday 16 June)

January 10, 2012
New Hampshire (primary - Modified) 12 total delegates

January 21, 2012
South Carolina (primary - Open) 25 total delegates

January 31, 2012
Florida (primary - Closed) 50 total delegates

February 4, 2012
Nevada (caucus - Closed) 28 total delegates

February 4–11, 2012
Maine (caucus - Closed) 24 total delegates (State Convention: Sunday 6 May 2012)

February 7, 2012
Colorado (caucus - Closed) 36 total delegates (State Convention: Saturday 14 April)
Minnesota (caucus - Open) 40 total delegates (State Convention: Saturday 5 May 2012)
Missouri (primary) – Counts for Zero delegates

February 25, 2012
Northern Marianas (caucus - Closed) 9 total delegates

February 28, 2012
Arizona (primary - Closed) 29 total delegates
Michigan (primary - Closed) 30 total delegates

March 3, 2012
Washington (caucus - Closed) 43 total delegates (State Convention: Saturday 2 June 2012)

March 6, 2012 (Super Tuesday)
Alaska (caucus - Closed) – 27 total delegates (State Convention: Saturday 28 April)
Georgia (primary - Modified) 76 total delegates
Idaho (caucus - Closed) 32 total delegates (State Convention: Saturday 23 June 2012)
Massachusetts (primary - Modified) 41 total delegates
North Dakota (caucus - Closed) 28 total delegates (State Convention: Sunday 1 April 2012)
Ohio (primary - Modified) 66 total delegates
Oklahoma (primary - Closed) 43 total delegates
Tennessee (primary - Open) 58 total delegates
Vermont (primary Open) 17 total delegates ^Proportional +51% Rule^
Virginia (primary - Open) 49 total delegates ^Proportional + 51% Rule^

March 6-10, 2012
Wyoming (caucus - Closed) 29 total delegates (Convention: Saturday 14 April 2012)

March 10, 2012
Kansas (caucus - Closed) 40 total delegates (State Party Committee Meeting: Sunday 1 July 2012)
U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus - Closed) 9 total delegates
Guam Republican (caucus - Closed) 9 total delegates

March 13, 2012
Alabama (primary - Open) – 50 total delegates
American Samoa Republican (caucus - Open) 9 total delegates
Hawaii (caucus - Closed) 20 total delegates
Mississippi (primary - Open) 40 total delegates

March 17, 2012
Missouri (GOP caucus - Modified) – 52 total delegates (State Convention: 2 June)

March 18, 2012
Puerto Rico (primary - Open) 23 total delegates

March 20, 2012
Illinois (primary - Open) 69 total delegates

March 24, 2012
Louisiana (primary - Closed) 46 total delegates

April 1, 2012 - End GOP Proportional mandate


April 3, 2012
District of Columbia (primary - Closed) 19 total delegates
Maryland (primary - Closed) 37 total delegates
Wisconsin (primary - Open) 42 total delegates
Texas (primary - Open) 155 total delegates ^Proportional^

April 24, 2012
Connecticut (primary - Closed) 28 total delegates
Delaware (primary - Closed) 17 total delegates
New York (primary - Closed) 95 total delegates ^Proportional + 51% Rule^
Pennsylvania (primary - Closed) 72 total delegates ^Loophole^
Rhode Island (primary - Modified) 19 total delegates

May 8, 2012
Indiana (primary - Open) 46 total delegates (State Convention: Saturday 9 June 2012)
North Carolina (primary - Modified) 55 total delegates
West Virginia (See link - Modified) 31 total delegates

May 15, 2012
Nebraska (primary - Advisory) 35 total delegates
Oregon (primary - Closed) 28 total delegates

May 22, 2012
Arkansas (primary - Open) 36 total delegates
Kentucky (primary - Closed) 45 total delegates

June 5, 2012
California (primary - Closed) 172 total delegates
Montana (See link - Closed) 26 delegates
New Jersey (primary - Modified) 50 total delegates
New Mexico (primary - Closed) 23 total delegates ^Proportional^
South Dakota (primary - Closed) 28 total delegates ^Proportional^

June 26, 2012
Utah (primary - Modified) 40 total delegates



Resource links
Calendar: http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/

Election 2012 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/

Map
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2012-presidential-primary-calendar.html

[whippoorwill]

bump.