2008 vs 2012 numbers by state and Paul's momentum

[Xenliad]

Since Paul and Romney were the only ones of the current bunch to run last time, let's look at their numbers and how they change after 4 years in the first three races.

Iowa (caucus)
2008: Mitt Romney 25.23% Ron Paul 9.96%
2012: Mitt Romney 24.53% Ron Paul 21.43%

New Hampshire (primary)
2008: Mitt Romney 31.56% Ron Paul 7.65%
2012: Mitt Romney 39.4% Ron Paul 22.9%

South Carolina (primary).
2008: Mitt Romney 15.30% Ron Paul 3.62%
2012: Mitt Romney 28% Ron Paul 13%

As you can see, Ron's percentage growth has been much greater than Romney's, and Ron's polling greatly improves in states the closer he gets to election day. Now let's look at the races yet to come. States are listed in their 2012 order.

Florida (primary)
2008: Mitt Romney 31.03% Ron Paul 3.23%
2012: Romney polling at 31~%, Paul polling at 10~%


2008:

Nevada (caucus)
Mitt Romney 51.10% Ron Paul 13.73%

Maine (caucus)
Mitt Romney 52.04% Ron Paul 18.36%

Colorado (caucus)
Mitt Romney 60.11% Ron Paul 8.42%

Minnesota (caucus)
Mitt Romney 41.37% Ron Paul 15.68%

Missouri (primary) [Doesn't matter until its caucus]
Mitt Romney 29.27% Ron Paul 4.49%

Arizona (primary)
Mitt Romney 34.53% Ron Paul 4.19%

Michigan (primary)
Mitt Romney 38.92% Ron Paul 6.27%

Washington (caucus)
Ron Paul 21.64% Mitt Romney 15.45% (Romney out of race)

Alaska (caucus)
Mitt Romney 44.58% Ron Paul 17.26%

Georgia (primary)
Mitt Romney 30.17% Ron Paul 2.92%

Idaho (caucus)
Ron Paul 23.72% [no Romney] (Romney out of race)

Massachusetts (primary)
Mitt Romney 51.12% Ron Paul 2.65%

North Dakota (caucus)
Mitt Romney 35.67% Ron Paul 21.28%

Ohio (primary)
Ron Paul 4.63% Mitt Romney 3.32% (Romney out of race)

Oklahoma (primary)
Mitt Romney 24.78% Ron Paul 3.34%

Tennessee (primary)
Mitt Romney 23.59% Ron Paul 5.60%

Vermont (primary)
Ron Paul 6.61% Mitt Romney 4.54% (Romney out of race)

Virginia (primary)
Ron Paul 4.50% Mitt Romney 3.68% (Romney out of race)

Wyoming (caucus)
Mitt Romney 54.17% [Paul none?]

Kansas (caucus)
Ron Paul 11.18% Mitt Romney 3.35% (Romney out of race)

U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus)
Mitt Romney 18.5% Ron Paul 2.8% [324 votes total] (Romney out of race)

Alabama (primary)
Mitt Romney 17.75% Ron Paul 2.68%

Hawaii (caucus)
[No records?] (Romney out of race)

Mississippi (primary)
Ron Paul 3.83% Mitt Romney 1.50% (Romney out of race)

Missouri (GOP caucus)
Mitt Romney 29.27% Ron Paul 4.49%

Puerto Rico (primary)
Ron Paul 4.33% [No Romney votes] [208 total votes]

Illinois (primary)
Mitt Romney 8.60% Ron Paul 5.01%

Louisiana (primary)
Mitt Romney 6.34% Ron Paul 5.33% (Romney out of race)

District of Columbia (primary)
Ron Paul 7.95% Mitt Romney 6.41% (Romney out of race)

Maryland (primary)
Mitt Romney 6.99% Ron Paul 5.98% (Romney out of race)

Wisconsin (primary)
Ron Paul 4.65% Mitt Romney 1.97% (Romney out of race)

Texas (primary)
Ron Paul 4.87% Mitt Romney 2.00% (Romney out of race)

Connecticut (primary)
Mitt Romney 32.91% Ron Paul 4.15%

Delaware (primary)
Mitt Romney 32.53% Ron Paul 4.24%

New York (primary)
Mitt Romney 27.59% Ron Paul 6.22%

Pennsylvania (primary)
Ron Paul 15.49% [no Romney] (Romney out of race)

Rhode Island (primary)
Ron Paul 6.52% Mitt Romney 4.34% (Romney out of race)

Indiana (primary)
Ron Paul 7.66% Mitt Romney 4.74% (Romney out of race)

North Carolina (primary)
Ron Paul 7.20% [No Romney] (Romney out of race)

West Virginia (primary)
[I'm not sure how this worked]

Nebraska (primary)
Ron Paul 12.81% [No Romney] (Romney out of race)

Oregon (primary)
Ron Paul 14.46% [No Romney] (Romney out of race)

Arkansas (primary)
Mitt Romney 13.53% Ron Paul 4.79%

Kentucky (primary)
Ron Paul 6.79% Mitt Romney 4.65% (Romney out of race)

California (primary)
Mitt Romney 34.56% Ron Paul 4.27%

Montana (primary)
Mitt Romney 38.34% Ron Paul 24.54%

New Jersey (primary)
Mitt Romney 28.33% Ron Paul 4.82%

New Mexico (primary)
Ron Paul 14.03% [No Romney] (Romney out of race)

South Dakota (primary)
Ron Paul 16.52% Mitt Romney 3.26% (Romney out of race)

Utah (primary)
Mitt Romney 89.49% Ron Paul 2.99%

Not sure where these go:

Northern Mariana Islands caucuses
Ron Paul 4.38% Mitt Romney 0.00%, 115 total votes

Guam caucuses
0 Romney 0 Paul, 9 votes cast, 6 national delegates! (Romney out of race)

I bolded where Ron got double digit 2008 numbers to show how high he could reach even when he did terribly in the first states in 2008, and I bolded where he was close to Romney or beat him. With the momentum from his good showings this year, he should do much better.

Election order from: http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/
Results from: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2008&elect=2
Some stuff from here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Republican_Party_presidential_ primaries

Feel free to correct/comment.

[sevin]

That is very encouraging. +rep

[bbartlog]

Upper Midwest to Pacific Northwest looks like good territory for us. Not surprising given the German and Scandinavian folkways.

[rp2012win]

this thread is winning

[JJ2]

You can't compare the Paul to Romney percentages in states after Romney dropped out in 2008 (February 7).

But it looks like Washington might be a good state to try to win (the last state before Super Tuesday this year).

[Mini-Me]

The Paul/Romney comparisons may not be valid in every state, but the dramatic rise of Ron Paul is crucial: If it holds in early states where we performed reasonably well in 2008 (e.g. Nevada, Maine, Minnesota, Washington, etc.), we have an opportunity to take some states before Super Tuesday. If we can do that, it will disrupt the entire media narrative and potentially allow us to take the nation by storm on Super Tuesday.

[Okie RP fan]

We've gotta hit CO, MN, ME, NV, etc. hard and make sure we win at least a couple of those states.

[brendan.orourke]

So many of these are Paul's for the taking!

[brendan.orourke]

I just can't wait to get past Florida...then the real fun begins. I really think Paul is going to over perform there too, come on!

[FreedomFox]

I'm sure that we will win some states by looking at the 2008 figures. It's quite uplifting. But I think comparing Romney's 2008 numbers may not be so good in predicting our 2012 numbers. In 2008, Romney wasn't a frontrunner, McCain was. Now that in 2012, the frontrunner is Romney/Gingrich, we can expect their numbers to be much higher in 2012 than 2008 and they'll be much tougher opponents. Not that we can't give a fight and compete with them.

[satchelmcqueen]

very nice post. needs to be a sticky. makes me want to fight harder.

[dancjm]

Good stuff.

[pinkmandy]

Awesome interactive map of current election delegates needed as well as how states voted in past elections. It also gives good info on senate/house races as well as a good page on polls showing state by state how much Obama is carrying and what the repubs need: http://www.270towin.com/

I can't imagine any of the other repub candidates being able to beat Obama given his support plus the "undecideds" wedges (on the polls page) are pretty large in many states with the Obama leading solidly in most states. The repubs NEED those undecideds and they need most of them. Obama only needs a few in most states from what I can see.

[EndTheFed]

Great info.... need to keep around...

Make Sticky

[Fredom101]

Since Paul and Romney were the only ones of the current bunch to run last time, let's look at their numbers and how they change after 4 years in the first three races.

Iowa (caucus)
2008: Mitt Romney 25.23% Ron Paul 9.96%
2012: Mitt Romney 24.53% Ron Paul 21.43%

New Hampshire (primary)
2008: Mitt Romney 31.56% Ron Paul 7.65%
2012: Mitt Romney 39.4% Ron Paul 22.9%

South Carolina (primary).
2008: Mitt Romney 15.30% Ron Paul 3.62%
2012: Mitt Romney 28% Ron Paul 13%

As you can see, Ron's percentage growth has been much greater than Romney's, and Ron's polling greatly improves in states the closer he gets to election day. Now let's look at the races yet to come. States are listed in their 2012 order.

Florida (primary)
2008: Mitt Romney 31.03% Ron Paul 3.23%
2012: Romney polling at 31~%, Paul polling at 10~%


2008:

Nevada (caucus)
Mitt Romney 51.10% Ron Paul 13.73%

Maine (caucus)
Mitt Romney 52.04% Ron Paul 18.36%

Colorado (caucus)
Mitt Romney 60.11% Ron Paul 8.42%

Minnesota (caucus)
Mitt Romney 41.37% Ron Paul 15.68%

Missouri (primary) [Doesn't matter until its caucus]
Mitt Romney 29.27% Ron Paul 4.49%

Arizona (primary)
Mitt Romney 34.53% Ron Paul 4.19%

Michigan (primary)
Mitt Romney 38.92% Ron Paul 6.27%

Washington (caucus)
Ron Paul 21.64% Mitt Romney 15.45%

Alaska (caucus)
Mitt Romney 44.58% Ron Paul 17.26%

Georgia (primary)
Mitt Romney 30.17% Ron Paul 2.92%

Idaho (caucus)
Ron Paul 23.72% [no Romney?]

Massachusetts (primary)
Mitt Romney 51.12% Ron Paul 2.65%

North Dakota (caucus)
Mitt Romney 35.67% Ron Paul 21.28%

Ohio (primary)
Ron Paul 4.63% Mitt Romney 3.32%

Oklahoma (primary)
Mitt Romney 24.78% Ron Paul 3.34%

Tennessee (primary)
Mitt Romney 23.59% Ron Paul 5.60%

Vermont (primary)
Ron Paul 6.61% Mitt Romney 4.54%

Virginia (primary)
Ron Paul 4.50% Mitt Romney 3.68%

Wyoming (caucus)
Mitt Romney 54.17% [Paul none?]

Kansas (caucus)
Ron Paul 11.18% Mitt Romney 3.35%

U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus)
Mitt Romney 18.5% Ron Paul 2.8% [324 votes total]

Alabama (primary)
Mitt Romney 17.75% Ron Paul 2.68%

Hawaii (caucus)
[No records?]

Mississippi (primary)
Ron Paul 3.83% Mitt Romney 1.50%

Missouri (GOP caucus)
Mitt Romney 29.27% Ron Paul 4.49%

Puerto Rico (primary)
Ron Paul 4.33% [No Romney votes] [208 total votes]

Illinois (primary)
Mitt Romney 8.60% Ron Paul 5.01%

Louisiana (primary)
Mitt Romney 6.34% Ron Paul 5.33%

District of Columbia (primary)
Ron Paul 7.95% Mitt Romney 6.41%

Maryland (primary)
Mitt Romney 6.99% Ron Paul 5.98%

Wisconsin (primary)
Ron Paul 4.65% Mitt Romney 1.97%

Texas (primary)
Ron Paul 4.87% Mitt Romney 2.00%

Connecticut (primary)
Mitt Romney 32.91% Ron Paul 4.15%

Delaware (primary)
Mitt Romney 32.53% Ron Paul 4.24%

New York (primary)
Mitt Romney 27.59% Ron Paul 6.22%

Pennsylvania (primary)
Ron Paul 15.49% [no Romney]

Rhode Island (primary)
Ron Paul 6.52% Mitt Romney 4.34%

Indiana (primary)
Ron Paul 7.66% Mitt Romney 4.74%

North Carolina (primary)
Ron Paul 7.20% [No Romney]

West Virginia (primary)
[I'm not sure how this worked]

Nebraska (primary)
Ron Paul 12.81% [No Romney]

Oregon (primary)
Ron Paul 14.46% [No Romney]

Arkansas (primary)
Mitt Romney 13.53% Ron Paul 4.79%

Kentucky (primary)
Ron Paul 6.79% Mitt Romney 4.65%

California (primary)
Mitt Romney 34.56% Ron Paul 4.27%

Montana (primary)
Mitt Romney 38.34% Ron Paul 24.54%

New Jersey (primary)
Mitt Romney 28.33% Ron Paul 4.82%

New Mexico (primary)
Ron Paul 14.03% [No Romney]

South Dakota (primary)
Ron Paul 16.52% Mitt Romney 3.26%

Utah (primary)
Mitt Romney 89.49% Ron Paul 2.99%

Not sure where these go:

Northern Mariana Islands caucuses
Ron Paul 4.38% Mitt Romney 0.00%, 115 total votes

Guam caucuses
0 Romney 0 Paul, 9 votes cast, 6 national delegates!

I bolded where Ron got double digit 2008 numbers to show how high he could reach even when he did terribly in the first states in 2008, and I bolded where he was close to Romney or beat him. With the momentum from his good showings this year, he should do much better.

Election order from: http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/
Results from: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2008&elect=2
Some stuff from here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Republican_Party_presidential_ primaries

Feel free to correct/comment.

Amazing post, thanks! Incredible that RP got nearly 25% in Montana in 08! Based on how he's done so far, RP should clean house in Montana, Idaho, and Washington! (and Guam, haha).

[Xenliad]

The Paul/Romney comparisons may not be valid in every state


You can't compare the Paul to Romney percentages in states after Romney dropped out in 2008 (February 7).

I added notes for that now and unbolded in some cases.


But I think comparing Romney's 2008 numbers may not be so good in predicting our 2012 numbers. In 2008, Romney wasn't a frontrunner, McCain was. Now that in 2012, the frontrunner is Romney/Gingrich, we can expect their numbers to be much higher in 2012 than 2008 and they'll be much tougher opponents. Not that we can't give a fight and compete with them.

True enough, but Romney went down in Iowa a little, up a little in New Hampshire, and seems stationary in Florida. I think Romney is a bigger long term threat than Gingrich, but I prefer Romney to Gingrich by a land slide.

[Keith and stuff]

Montana (primary)
Mitt Romney 38.34% Ron Paul 24.54%

Feel free to correct/comment.

According to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montana_Republican_caucuses,_2008 you confused the MT Caucus with the MT Primary. You are reporting the MT Caucus which people in MT don't care about (only 1,600 people voted.) Since the people of MT don't like voting in the Caucus, I think they did anyway with it :(

According to the link above, the Primary was this:
John McCain 72,551 76.18%
Ron Paul 20,452 21.48%
No Preference 1,786 2.93%

[Keith and stuff]

Amazing post, thanks! Incredible that RP got nearly 25% in Montana in 08!

He only got 400 votes in the MT Caucus in 2008 according to Wikipedia. Having 400 hardcore supporters in a state with a population the size of MT wouldn't normally be incredible at all but it seems folks in MT really don't like voting in the late Caucus. It is certainly an opportunity for Paul if he wants to rack up delegates this time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montana_Republican_caucuses,_2008

Edit: Looks like I was wrong. Sorry. It looks like MT got ride of the caucus and is now just doing a MT Primary. That is going to hurt Ron Paul's ability to pick up delegates in MT. Also, it isn't until June.

[Keith and stuff]

As you can see, Ron's percentage growth has been much greater than Romney's, and Ron's polling greatly improves in states the closer he gets to election day. Now let's look at the races yet to come. States are listed in their 2012 order.

You have to look at why it improved, though. It improved mostly because there were less candidates as candidates continued to drop out. For example, NH had 23 GOP candidates in 2008. I know NH is a special case and always is a lot more competitive than other states but still. The main 3 candidates last time were McCain, Romney and Huckabee, and there were a bunch of minor candidates such as Giuliani and Thompson. At first the minor candidates and then the major candidates started to drop out. Romney dropped out on 2-7-08. In the later states, Ron Paul would often get 4% - 25% of the vote but at that point it was just the Republican nominee and Ron Paul in the race. However, sometimes other candidates were still on the ballot but the majority of voters clearly knew those candidates were no longer in the race.

[stillhere]

You have to look at why it improved, though. It improved mostly because there were less candidates as candidates continued to drop out. For example, NH had 23 GOP candidates in 2008. I know NH is a special case and always is a lot more competitive than other states but still. The main 3 candidates last time were McCain, Romney and Huckabee, and there were a bunch of minor candidates such as Giuliani and Thompson. At first the minor candidates and then the major candidates started to drop out. Romney dropped out on 2-7-08. In the later states, Ron Paul would often get 4% - 25% of the vote but at that point it was just the Republican nominee and Ron Paul in the race. However, sometimes other candidates were still on the ballot but the majority of voters clearly knew those candidates were no longer in the race.

Exactly. Thanks for using a little bit of analysis. The growth really wasn't all that impressive or meaningful. And to think we will have the same % growth in these states this time...and get in the 50s in some caucus states....and 30s in primaries....by looking at our polling numbers right now, I don't know how likely that is.

[ZanZibar]

http://i185.photobucket.com/albums/x93/sonicspikesalbum/Campaign%20VI/800px-2008primarycounties.png

[da32130]

Here is the turnout factor from 2008, and a results comparison with 2012 (all results from before Feb 10, when most candidates still in, list by date):

caucus:
Iowa 10% (21% in 2012)
Nevada 14%
Maine 18%
Alaska 17%
Colorado 9%
Minnesota 16%
Montana 25%
North Dakota 21%
Washington 22%
Kansas 11%

primary:
New Hampshire 8% (23% in 2012)
Michagan 6%
South Carolina 4% (13% in 2012)
Florida 3%
Alabama 3%
Tennessee 6%
Connecticut 4%
Arizona 4%
Georgia 3%
Delaware 4%
California 4%
Arkansas 5%
etc.

The lowest caucus was 9%, the highest primary was 8%.
The highest caucus was 25%, the lowest primary was 3%.

Turnout can make a huge difference.

[Keith and stuff]

http://i185.photobucket.com/albums/x93/sonicspikesalbum/Campaign%20VI/800px-2008primarycounties.png

That map isn't accurate as labeled, though it is fun and useful. It is a combination of primaries and caucuses. For example, it shows the MT Caucus results (1,600+ total voters) and not the MT Primary results (94,000+) voters which more actually reflects the voters of MT.