Tipping Point

[millercards]

Saw a young woman say after the debate that she thought Ron Paul was the best one up there because he was straight forward with his answer and the other guys seemed to be just attacking each other.

I think this is becoming more and more common among regular people. (Not counting the converted Paullites)

I think there is also a large mass of people that still are hesitant because we seem 'kooky' or whatever word the media feeds them. It seems there are many hesitant to support Paul because of his unelectability propaganda.

At some point though... you would have to think.... there will be a TIPPING POINT.

At some point, people will see the percentages, start believing Paul has a chance, and they'll join the good fight.

The climb will then gain momentum (grassrooted converts + tipping point converts).

More people will join as our vote totals grow.

At some point, this momentum could tip.... and the votes would start to Pour in. If and once we find that point, I think it's over, we win.

Thoughts on this? How do we get to the Tipping Point? What percentage of votes do we need? 30+ in 2 consecutive states?

[cindy25]

1 win

[Article V]

Science says if 15% of a population remain unshakeable in their belief, it causes a groundswell that allows the idea to flourish at an exponential rate.

So I'd say the tipping point would be regularly polling over 15% in the national Real Clear Politics average. We're close to getting over 15% for the first time there, but who knows what percentage of that 15% is unshakeable. That's why we need to be steadily over 15%.

Newt has done it, Romney has done it, Santorum has not, Ron Paul has not. If we can hit it steadily before Santorum, we have a real path to victory. If not, it will become that much harder because we'll have one more candidate that people view as realistic competing in the mix.

[millercards]

1 win, that'd be nice.

I think you could be right. If we can take first in a state soon, we should get votes from people that now see his electability, people that see the first and decide to finally check him out and have their Ron Paul Moment, and even some bandwagon jumpers.

You're right, that would be huge.

Let's get Nevada!

[hueylong]

16.5% nationally. according to mosely's law, 16.5% is the point in which you start moving up the curve on the diffusion of innovation.

we will need to adjust our messaging slightly at that point to account for the fact that we are winning.

[millercards]

That's exactly what was going on in my head. That groundswell that just keeps gaining momentum and energy, building off itself.

In my head it sounded like a Tipping Point.

[TER]

Nevada FTW!

[european]

lol, I just made a post on this topic. Let me quote myself :p
And the tipping point is much lower then 30% of the republican voters. The tipping point has been investigated a lot already and it more at the 16%. The reasoning is it reflects the way people think and make judgements. And it appears to be this 16%. That is a natural ceiling that has to be breached. And we went through that ceiling already which prooves there is a big momentum for us right now. But it also shows that the way the message is being put foreward has to be altered a bit. It should be tweaked in a way that the new target audience understands and accepts it. One of which is making a case that RP is electable and for that I think he has to become more defiant (but I guess this part is open for debat).


Changing a meme is hard, it takes time and dedication and any growth this movement makes due to this electoral process is a win. That's why dr Paul always wins. And I really hope dr Paul wins because the meme suddenly goes exponential, this might just happen. We have reached the tipping point of 16% so all is possible. And time will tell if we make it this election or next election. The more effort is made, the bigger the odds it will happen this election cycle.

http://chrismaloney.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/maloneys-16-rule.jpg

If one says that the 2007 election started with the innovators (technologists), in the last 4 years we got the early adopters (visionaries) in. And now we need to get the pragmatics in to get the early majority. And that it is all we need to get to win this republican election. Then the conservatives will join in, as will the sceptics. And from the independent and democratic side we will get the innovators as well as a big portion of the early adopters and you see them voting RP already.

This is also why I do think dr Paul will gain a lot if he makes slight adjustments to his style right now. As do we the grassroots. We got the innovaters and early adopters, now we have to focus on the early majority.

edit:
A meme (play /ˈmiːm/[1]) is "an idea, behavior or style that spreads from person to person within a culture."[2] A meme acts as a unit for carrying cultural ideas, symbols or practices, which can be transmitted from one mind to another through writing, speech, gestures, rituals or other imitable phenomena
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meme
And this is why it the Paul campaign is also called the Revolution, because it is a different meme that is put foreward.

[Kandilynn]

I think the people in Nevada need to be showing people how Ron Paul is electable. If he wins Nevada, no one can say he's not going to win. It's early enough in the process that it will give the campaign huge forward momentum going into Super Tuesday, and he will start to really collect delegates.

[millercards]

Nice. These forums are awesome.

Sorry to repost what you did. Yours was great, mine was before bed ramblings.

I did really start the theory in my head... I had a lot of stuff going around, nothing like the law stated above, but really on the same path towards it. Blew my mind when I saw your graph, I felt like I pictured it before hand.

Exponential growth seems to be the main ingredient/symptom/factor/result/etc.

edit: reply to European... keep hitting 'reply' instead of 'reply with quote'

[JJ2]

1 win

That's exactly what I was going to say.

Let's win Nevada!!!

[Article V]

We've risen to a steady 14% nationally, while Santorum is dropping from his temporary small surge. As long as Newt and Romney whop Santorum in Florida, he may likely be finished (though he might not realize it at first). Simultaneously, we'll have to keep steadily inching upward, which is possible even with a last place finish in Florida b/c the campaign is managing expectations by publicly not competing there and looking ahead to the caucuses.

[millercards]

Suppose someone with a little more rep than me should start a thread titled:

Speculation: Win Nevada, and we just might win the whole thing.

Might help us all rally around the Nevada efforts.

[alucard13mmfmj]

itll be liek zombies.. growth is exponential. quarantine will be impossible soon.

[RonPaulMyPresident]

Winning Nevada will boost our confidence, and thats what all Ron Paul supporters need right now.

I have faith. People of Nevada love their freedom and liberties. We have to spread the message of Ron Paul in that state.

[Slobodan]

I have to be honest I don't think RP will win the nomination but we have to go all in because of the future, RP has shown the way to many of us, I had the belief before I heard of him 4 years ago, but he cemented that I was right in my belief and also he showed that there are millions like me. What I think will happen after this probably fails (I hope I'm wrong) is the the there will be more economic and political failure in the years to come and then hundreds (if not thousands) of pro-liberty candidates will run (and many win) office. I registered republican so I can vote in Florida on Jan 31st for Dr. Paul but it's annoying how they ignore him here on Tampa Bay news if it's not something bad the crony media can say. It's just horrible.

But one thing is true Dr. Paul has shown the way its on us now to fight long term for the cause there is no easy victory here and we have to stay the course. I'm all in, and I have a feeling 4 or 8 years from now we will double or triple our pro-liberty base, that's my prediction! One thing is sure, the half a dozen countries I lived in, only USA has a chance for real liberty the others don't but will if we can win here they will copy us, but they will not be first i'm sure of it. So we have to fight for liberty with all our energy its' worth it, I just don't want to think where US is heading if this keep moving to the left un-opposed.

[RonPaulMyPresident]

I have to be honest I don't think RP will win the nomination but we have to go all in because of the future, RP has shown the way to many of us, I had the belief before I heard of him 4 years ago, but he cemented that I was right in my belief and also he showed that there are millions like me. What I think will happen after this probably fails (I hope I'm wrong) is the the there will be more economic and political failure in the years to come and then hundreds (if not thousands) of pro-liberty candidates will run (and many win) office. I registered republican so I can vote in Florida on Jan 31st for Dr. Paul but it's annoying how they ignore him here on Tampa Bay news if it's not something bad the crony media can say. It's just horrible.

But one thing is true Dr. Paul has shown the way its on us now to fight long term for the cause there is no easy victory here and we have to stay the course. I'm all in, and I have a feeling 4 or 8 years from now we will double or triple our pro-liberty base, that's my prediction! One thing is sure, the half a dozen countries I lived in, only USA has a chance for real liberty the others don't but will if we can win here they will copy us, but they will not be first i'm sure of it. So we have to fight for liberty with all our energy its' worth it, I just don't want to think where US is heading if this keep moving to the left un-opposed.

Get rid of the negative energy and dont share your negative energy with others. The race has just started.

Watch my video


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSXkM6n74Dw

[affa]

would it make sense for the campaign, or a superpac, to simply build off this tipping point meme?

Something like:

NEVADA: Show America what liberty really means! Vote Ron Paul. Win Nevada, Win the Presidency!

[Article V]

Get rid of the negative energy and dont share your negative energy with others. The race has just started.^^This. It's the same advice Sam Adams used to give the original revolutionaries who founded this nation: always keep a positive, upbeat, winning attitude; never let anyone see you doubt and question your ability to succeed, because success is the only option and we must not sew seeds of doubt.

Hold your ground, freedom fighters. More will join soon if we stand strong and unshakeable.

[millercards]

would it make sense for the campaign, or a superpac, to simply build off this tipping point meme?

Something like:

NEVADA: Show America what liberty really means! Vote Ron Paul. Win Nevada, Win the Presidency!

Apply Dr. Paul's "What If" Theory.

What if it works? We win Nevada and get crazy momentum.

What if it doesn't? We still get a lot more votes and continue great momentum.

I think we need to really attack one of these states before Super Tuesday and make sure we at least get 1. Without doing some research, I'm not sure which is the best state to attack... this is where I let the elder statesmen of RPF inform us.

[Article V]

would it make sense for the campaign, or a superpac, to simply build off this tipping point meme?

Something like:

NEVADA: Show America what liberty really means! Vote Ron Paul. Win Nevada, Win the Presidency!No, because we're not absolutists. It's not about Nevada. We've just got to keep plugging away and keep standing strong. Our numbers are increasing. Exponential growth WILL happen, but we can't pinpoint exactly when the message will catch; perhaps it will be Nevada, perhaps it will be mid-February, perhaps it will be later. It'll happen, just stand strong.

[Article V]

We should try to win CPAC 2012 though. It's the last big event during an empty February. If we win Nevada and CPAC, we garner a lot of press that can't be dismissed till March when more states come into the mix.

Nevada and CPAC. Plan accordingly.

[millercards]

I like both sides of thinking.... but I just can't imagine what momentum would come from taking 1st in a state soon.

Especially if it's a state before Super Tuesday. If we win our first state there, the media could let it go.

If we win one before when it's the highlight of the political news world, it will be impossible to ignore us. Even if we're totally blown off like we should expect to be, outsiders would see that 1st place finish and take notice.

[european]

Nice. These forums are awesome.

Sorry to repost what you did. Yours was great, mine was before bed ramblings.

I did really start the theory in my head... I had a lot of stuff going around, nothing like the law stated above, but really on the same path towards it. Blew my mind when I saw your graph, I felt like I pictured it before hand.

Exponential growth seems to be the main ingredient/symptom/factor/result/etc.

edit: reply to European... keep hitting 'reply' instead of 'reply with quote'

haha no problem, and welcome to the Ron Paul Forums. I'm very happy to see new people joining in. This is a marvelous place to be indeed. The grassroots central is good for keeping up with the latest news, and the other forums are good for background or specific information.
And the post I made was a reply in some other thread, so it makes sense you didnt see it. And reposting is no problem at all. I'm happy to contribute to this fellowship that we all are in. And i'm gonna give you +rep for this thread.

To add some information to my former post.

Focussing in on the Republican voters: we are at that 16% level. And the premise is that Ron Paul wins if he gets 50% +1 of the votes. (in case of a 2-men race).

Having the first 16% means you have most of the people who behave sceptic (in a positive way) and want to get information and decide for themselves what the outcome should be: they want to make up their own mind. This is what these people are like and for them it makes a lot of sense to accept Ron Paul. These are also the people who want to educate themselves. And this is perfectly in line with the people who go on the internet and do research themselves. So it really fits the profile.

The early marjority has another set of personal wishes. One of them being less motivated to do a lot of research themselves. The do have a lot of social contacts and are willing to listen to their network (whether it be friends, family, email, tv, etc). They are open minded and are willing to try something new, which has already prooved itself (to others). So they want positive feedback on the message. This means what are the solutions?

We can point out the problem: huge debt and give them 2 scenario's: #1Newt/Rick/Mitt or #2Ron and take the time to explain it and answer their questions.
Also about foreign policy #1Newt/Rick/Mitt or #2Ron and do just the same. I once saw a comparisonmatrix on this forums and that could be a good solution. Maybe like: protect the borders in Germany or the borders between the US and Mexico? Where do you want us to spend this money? The answer ofcourse is in the US, and if it makes sense to you it makes sense to them!

Or just give them a picture and ask on which military bases in Germany they want to spend money and which German regions they want to stimulate the economy. For having those soldiers there, means they spend their money there, thus stimulating the economy. I have seen myself closing one of the bases nearby and the economy crumbled, so it is true that having a base is good for the local economy and the local German cities and states want to keep them there for providing work to the locals. And also let them pick which ones should be closed so the military can be transfered to the US and spend their income back at home to stimulate the American economy.
Here is a picture I found on wikipedia:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3d/US_military_bases_in_Germany.svg
There are about 53,000 American military in Germany. You can do the math how much they spend there. :)

For a list of countries you can check it out here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_deployments

And above all: do not go into defense while talking to the early majority. If they don't agree, ask them why not, and also what candidate has an alternative. And discuss on the bad sides of that other candidate (which is most likely spending the US into bankruptcy). Their concerns are real, discover them, know they are important and show the disadvantages of the other candidates and the positives of Ron Paul. Give the message the credibility it has and deserves.

Since this is politics and not your average new product:
Never forget that Ron Paul is going to cut 1 trillion dollar! That is a lot of money that stops comming out of your taxpaying pockets (or stops being borrowed from China), and a lot of people and companies will loose a lot of income because of that. And they don't want to loose their piece of the pie, so they will do all they can to discredit Paul to stop him. And also the major news networks know they earn a lot when they cover wars. People tune in to see what is happening, thus having a lot of viewers, thus making their commerce breaks more watched, thus selling the commercebreak minutes for more money per second. It is part of their businesmodel, and as a journalist once said: half of the pressroom will loose their job when Paul becomes President, so there might be a conflict of interest. </end rant>

[cindy25]

read or listen to the Tipping Point; you will be convinced that if Ron wins Nevada he can start measuring the drapes in the White House.

Mitt loses NV and he is finished. Newt vs Ron one on one is no problem. the establishment knows Newt would lose in a landslide, and they would rather keep their house and senate with a President Paul (who they will assume they can tame)

[InTradePro]

Tipping Point is near. I think it will shock some people here (in a good way), when it takes off.

The negative battle of Romney-Gringrich will help Dr Paul nationally because it will become easier to reinforce the negatives of other candidates.

[Liberty74]

There needs to be some type of unforeseen event to happen before people become awake and join us. This theory that people are sitting on the side in mass for Paul is a myth. He has very high unfavorables due to the talk radio damage done about his foreign policy. Ron needs to address this before any tipping point can occur.

[SilentBull]

The Ron Paul Explosion, explained by the law of diffusion of innovation. (http://www.truthinexile.com/2011/10/20/is-the-ron-paul-explosion-coming/)

[mosquitobite]

A normally rabid anti-Paul lady tried to paint RP's FP is cRaZy stance last night. (we declared war on Iran, they're responding)
I responded:


If Russia sanctioned us and blocked imports from us, would we consider that an act of war?

Or, another way of looking at it, if China put a war ship in the Gulf of Mexico "just to protect their interests (in our debt we owe them)" would we consider THAT an act of war?

Why is it OK, because it's the USA doing it?

And another thing a friend mentioned today... if we didn't have bases all over Europe and elsewhere to help sovereign nations defend themselves... would they be able to afford their socialistic health care programs? (If they had to spend money for their own defense that is?)

Normally she uses ad-hominem attacks and just sticks with the HA! RP is cRaZy! stance. But last night?


I agree, we need to get out of many nations, but no, not the ones that aren't prepared to stablilize themselves since they will fall to our enemies. Yeah, I get what you are saying.

I had to pick my jaw up off the floor. Because...um yeah... tipping point!

[mosquitobite]

Or just give them a picture and ask on which military bases in Germany they want to spend money and which German regions they want to stimulate the economy. For having those soldiers there, means they spend their money there, thus stimulating the economy. I have seen myself closing one of the bases nearby and the economy crumbled, so it is true that having a base is good for the local economy and the local German cities and states want to keep them there for providing work to the locals. And also let them pick which ones should be closed so the military can be transfered to the US and spend their income back at home to stimulate the American economy.

There are about 53,000 American military in Germany. You can do the math how much they spend there. :)

For a list of countries you can check it out here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_deployments

And above all: do not go into defense while talking to the early majority. If they don't agree, ask them why not, and also what candidate has an alternative. And discuss on the bad sides of that other candidate (which is most likely spending the US into bankruptcy). Their concerns are real, discover them, know they are important and show the disadvantages of the other candidates and the positives of Ron Paul. Give the message the credibility it has and deserves.

Since this is politics and not your average new product:
Never forget that Ron Paul is going to cut 1 trillion dollar! That is a lot of money that stops comming out of your taxpaying pockets (or stops being borrowed from China), and a lot of people and companies will loose a lot of income because of that. And they don't want to loose their piece of the pie, so they will do all they can to discredit Paul to stop him. And also the major news networks know they earn a lot when they cover wars. People tune in to see what is happening, thus having a lot of viewers, thus making their commerce breaks more watched, thus selling the commercebreak minutes for more money per second. It is part of their businesmodel, and as a journalist once said: half of the pressroom will loose their job when Paul becomes President, so there might be a conflict of interest. </end rant>

Now, add in BRAC
http://www.brac.gov/

Closing bases AT HOME, and instead supplementing other nation's defense...

[SaulPaulinsky]

lol, I just made a post on this topic. Let me quote myself :p
And the tipping point is much lower then 30% of the republican voters. The tipping point has been investigated a lot already and it more at the 16%. The reasoning is it reflects the way people think and make judgements. And it appears to be this 16%. That is a natural ceiling that has to be breached. And we went through that ceiling already which prooves there is a big momentum for us right now. But it also shows that the way the message is being put foreward has to be altered a bit. It should be tweaked in a way that the new target audience understands and accepts it. One of which is making a case that RP is electable and for that I think he has to become more defiant (but I guess this part is open for debat).



edit:
A meme (play /ˈmiːm/[1]) is "an idea, behavior or style that spreads from person to person within a culture."[2] A meme acts as a unit for carrying cultural ideas, symbols or practices, which can be transmitted from one mind to another through writing, speech, gestures, rituals or other imitable phenomena
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meme
And this is why it the Paul campaign is also called the Revolution, because it is a different meme that is put foreward.

Could you please explain "social proof" in this context?

[SaulPaulinsky]

We should try to win CPAC 2012 though. It's the last big event during an empty February. If we win Nevada and CPAC, we garner a lot of press that can't be dismissed till March when more states come into the mix.

Nevada and CPAC. Plan accordingly.

IMO Minnesota is a better bet than Nevada. Lot of Mormons in Nevada and Romney got over 50% last time. Not saying it can't be won.

[UK4Paul]

Could you please explain "social proof" in this context?

People tend to follow others, look around to see what others are doing before doing something, etc.

If they see enough people support Ron Paul, social proof works our favour. They feel it becomes socially acceptable to support Ron Paul.

Read Cialdini's "Influence". He came up with the concept of "social proof" (slightly earlier than the seduction guys ;) )

[mosquitobite]

People tend to follow others, look around to see what others are doing before doing something, etc.

If they see enough people support Ron Paul, social proof works our favour. They feel it becomes socially acceptable to support Ron Paul.

Read Cialdini's "Influence". He came up with the concept of "social proof" (slightly earlier than the seduction guys ;) )

Agree. In the states we hope to win, I hope every Ron Paul supporter is wearing RP gear, doing sign waves, etc - DAILY!

[cindy25]

Tipping Point is near. I think it will shock some people here (in a good way), when it takes off.

The negative battle of Romney-Gringrich will help Dr Paul nationally because it will become easier to reinforce the negatives of other candidates.

it will even shock Dr Paul. just think of color TVs and cell phones; all of a sudden everyone had one. there was no event, tipping points are a natural progression, and at some point they tip

[luctor-et-emergo]

IMO Minnesota is a better bet than Nevada. Lot of Mormons in Nevada and Romney got over 50% last time. Not saying it can't be won.

Paul got 13% last time around in Nevada, which is one of the better showings... If he'd double that, 26%, triple it 39%.

Mitt was just over 50% last time around, but he's only doing 30% right now (a month ago or so in the polls? Old polling data though.)... This is interesting, and it's a caucus.

[MsDoodahs]

read or listen to the Tipping Point; you will be convinced that if Ron wins Nevada he can start measuring the drapes in the White House.

Mitt loses NV and he is finished. Newt vs Ron one on one is no problem. the establishment knows Newt would lose in a landslide, and they would rather keep their house and senate with a President Paul (who they will assume they can tame)

don't say that I have always believed that is a jinx phrase.

[cheapseats]

At some point though... you would have to think.... there will be a TIPPING POINT.

Absolutely.

TIPPING POINTS go one way, or the other.




At some point, people will see the percentages, start believing Paul has a chance, and they'll join the good fight.
The climb will then gain momentum (grassrooted converts + tipping point converts).

More people will join as our vote totals grow.

The "great" silent fearful majority of folks ARE Bandwagon People, no doubt about that.

But HOW THINGS PLAY OUT AFTER RESISTANCE HAS ASSEMBLED CRITICAL MASS puts the cart before the horse.

Egyptians had a notion for how things would play out once they assembled a Critical Mass. Obama had a notion for how things would play out once he assembled a Critical Mass. Mike Tyson: "Everyone has a plan, til they get punched in the face."





At some point, this momentum could tip....

Or fizzle.




...and the votes would start to Pour in. If and once we find that point, I think it's over, we win.

Sounds good. Easy, too.




Thoughts on this?


I do NOT mean to get in your grill specifically. It's "just" that y'all are running SEVEN TO TEN PAGES of "new" material per DAY and it wastes a lot of TIME (what I apprehend to be the most valuable of MY scarce resources) to re-find Connecting Dots.

YES, regarding the significance of momentum. Ron Paul skipping UN-WINNABLE CONTESTS WITH WINNER-TAKE-ALL DELEGATES does not mean his Adoring Fans should skip the state. On the contrary. TIRELESS UNEQUIVOCAL BOOTS-ON-THE-GROUND SUPPORT is one of his strongest suits.




How do we get to the Tipping Point?

Baby Boomers, Women and Seniors.

In a Venn Diagram, those intersect at MIDDLE-AGED WOMEN.

Seniors may be impossible...but that is largely because their PEER is an inferior speaker who is not redeemed by innately winsome appearance or mannerisms. No matter, they are stuck in their ways AND croaking by the day. Stubborn & self-righteous Seniors should MOTIVATE Baby Boomers & Youth, who are paying for heroic medical procedures for Octogenarians.

That leaves Baby Boomers & Women.

No one can win without 'em. There are too damn many of us, lol.

[otherone]

I read some time ago that the percentage needed for change is 20%. The Revolutionary War was supported by only 20% of the population, with the 'status quo' simply not caring/afraid of authority/think about the children/sheeple. People don't change...look at the Liberty Movement from 2007 to now...the status quo is malleable, not stubborn.

[cheapseats]

...the status quo is malleable, not stubborn.


The Status Quo is malleable, not stubborn ON WHAT PLANET?

The PEOPLE who make discussion of the Status Quo relevant, indeed possible, are VERY stubborn.

[Tyler_Durden]

I keep up the hope that by Ron Pauling the Gold Standard and the Federal Reserve, Newt actually helps Ron Paul because it's letting the ill informed voters that Ron Paul has viable and legitimate policy ideas, unlike what they are fed by Limbaugh, Hannity, OReilly, etc.

[WilliamC]

I like the fact that Ron Paul was able to get 4 South Carolina State Senators to endorse him. I hope that these individuals can grow the liberty movement in South Carolina sans Ron Paul. I like the fact that Rand Paul is now a U.S. Senator from Kentucky, and that Justin Amash is openly supporting Ron Paul and I hope they are able to become a focal point for more growth of the freedom movement at the Federal level.

Ron Paul appeals to folks like me, who think for themselves and do their own research and have absolutely zero clue as to what is going on socially. But I don't think Ron Paul appeals to the more general electorate, and for this movement to succeed other more charismatic political leaders at all levels must step forward and openly associate with Ron Paul and support him. I just don't think that Ron Paul can do much more than he is already doing with this campaign, and when it's over, if he does not win, I don't see him as being in public office any longer.

While I am sometimes pessimistic about Ron Paul becoming President, I am more optimistic about the movement he is leaving behind, and if the tipping point isn't reached during his campaign, at least Ron Paul got us to this level.

But not a single one of us can actually predict the future, and while I don't know exactly how it could happen I also don't know that it can't either, and neither does anyone else at this point.

I hope Carol Paul's prediction of 35 years ago comes true one more time :)

[dfalken]

IMO Minnesota is a better bet than Nevada. Lot of Mormons in Nevada and Romney got over 50% last time. Not saying it can't be won.

Agreed. I also think ME is probably the easiest, as I think something like 5000 votes won it last time around. We could probably drag 5000 volunteers out to Maine committed to bring at least one local citizen by the hand to the polls.

[dfalken]

I keep up the hope that by Ron Pauling the Gold Standard and the Federal Reserve, Newt actually helps Ron Paul because it's letting the ill informed voters that Ron Paul has viable and legitimate policy ideas, unlike what they are fed by Limbaugh, Hannity, OReilly, etc.

Yes. These fools think that by looking more like Paul they are going to take some of his support away, which shows me they don't even understand why we follow Paul. What they are actually doing is what you said, validating Paul which allow new people to check him out and be converted.

[european]

Could you please explain "social proof" in this context?

Yes ofcourse, I'm happy to. First let me show you what social proof is by presenting to you a dancing equivalent of Ron Paul, dancing to the beat of "Unstoppable" (which we are!).


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSYUueIFMZE

With Derek Sivers from TED talks who explains it:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4D2uZdO_1g


Social proof is a term used by Cialdini from his book Influence. I can highly recommend that book. In text I think I can keep it short by giving the link to wikipedia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_proof
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Cialdini

To put it in context of Ron Paul:
When we enter the area (or era) of social proof, we should be leaving the area (or era) of being loony. You will notice it in the media, that they stop naming RP supporters as hackers, paulbots, loonies, tinfoilhatters, fringe, etc. And if you ask me, we have witnessed our movement passing that point in the last 2 months. Ron Paul and his supporters aren't being laughed at anymore.

We have seen votes of 20%+ which puts us well into the early majority area. This takes away the fear for those who want to belong to the group, which are the 84% of the people. This means that more and more endorsements from public figures will be seen. As happened in South Carolina. This will happen more often.

What is as important though, is that it shows that the tactic to persuad people can/has to be changed at this point. We are now convincing people who have other priorities then the first 16%. Nothing said about good or bad, just different. And the group that can be convinced now is the group that just has to see that they are joining the right side, the side where all the good action will be in the years to come. We are the winning side, and this is what should be communicated. This should be added to the regular education ofcourse. That is why I say there should be a change in communication/strategy but not a huge change, just slightly different, but different enough to get those new people on board of this movement that will give shape to the USA in the coming 12 years. If we dont taken over this time, the influence will be seen the coming 4 years already, and we get in power the next electioncycle for sure. This movement will only grow bigger now. We are Unstoppable! ;)

I hope it makes sense to you now. If not, I will write more about it in text to clarify it.

[otherone]

The Status Quo is malleable, not stubborn ON WHAT PLANET?

The PEOPLE who make discussion of the Status Quo relevant, indeed possible, are VERY stubborn.

You misunderstand . Sheep go where they are led, and have short memories. Not long ago, Herman Cain was the "champion" of the GOP pundits; Huntsman was the "moderate who could take on Obama." There is no conviction among the status quo. I get your point though, that those who currently profit from the current conditions are well-vested in continuing.

[SaulPaulinsky]

European:

Awesome. The video did it alone hahaha.

I was thinking something along those lines, but had just never heard the term.

I think we have left the area of being loony among many, even though who still aren't convinced to vote for Paul. I liked Paul in 2007 but really and truly felt he had no chance so I didn't support him. But I didn't forget him, and over time I've come to realize he is the Obi-Wan. He's probably not the person to restore order to the universe, but he is the essential first link to it being done if it is to take place. So I guess I'm a bit of a testament as well...not one of the first three guys, but maybe in that first pack of people that came running after.

So this might be a decent place to ask...where is the best place to order RP items online? I've got a bumper sticker and a sign and can probably get other items like that, but want to get a couple of shirts or something to wear around so that hopefully it'll strike up conversation. I guess without knowing it I've been sensing and thinking about how to cross that chasm you illustrated so very well and draw more people in.

[millercards]

I couldn't stop laughing at the dance video, that was great.

The guy put it in great context.

This is all the more reason to push harder.

Earlier poster was right... baby boomers are next. Middle aged women are a good target.

I'm trying to get my mom.

My grandma laughed at me though.

[Steve-in-NY]

More and more people are coming up to me and saying they are liking him. Out of no where.
I try to get another person on board every week. Im pretty much meeting that goal so far.
I hope you are all doing that as well.

If we are at 12% nationally, and just half of those supporters can get 1 more person on board in a week, then we can grow by 3% nationally in just a week. (15%)

So 2 questions for you all:
1. Can you convince just 1 person that Ron Paul is the best GOP choice available?
2. Can you do that every week?

One more question:
1. Can you get them to the polls?

Even if you cannot get them to the polls, the more people we have on board overall the better the turnout becomes statistically from a mathematical standpoint anyway.
You can help turnout by being creative - ie. taking them yourself, setting up early voting/absentee with/for them (where applicable), hosting a vote party, etc...

It all comes down to you working toward 3 simple goals.
1. Convince just 1 person that Ron Paul is the best GOP choice available
2. Do #1 every week
3. Make sure you vote.

Thats it. Everything else that helps (call from home, donations, etc) is nice too.

Hold fast! Its in our reach!

[dfalken]

I couldn't stop laughing at the dance video, that was great.

The guy put it in great context.

This is all the more reason to push harder.

Earlier poster was right... baby boomers are next. Middle aged women are a good target.

I'm trying to get my mom.

My grandma laughed at me though.

I think middle aged women are a better next target than neo-con baby boomers. I converted my mother in law already but my FOX watching father in law is a lost cause. My baby boomer aunt and uncle are finally listening to me and asking questions after more than 6 years of basically ridiculing me. They are not ready to convert yet but they live in NY and I think I'll have them in the bag before they get to vote.

[doctorfunk]

I like the ideas and theory, but why hasn't Mitt or Newt received full support by now? They are both over the tipping point. I also think politics isn't the same as color tvs or cell phones.

[millercards]

doctorfunk, it's simple

Mitt and Newt do not have the backing that Paul has. Ron Paul's supporters/voters are all legit voters dedicated to only Ron Paul. He is a cause, a movement, a viral hope.

A TON of Mitt and Newt votes come from people that just don't know any better. They only see what the TV tells them, and they only know about the guys that the TV talks about.

People don't vote for Ron Paul for shallow reasons..... YET.

All of the bandwagon jumpers, people fooled by the media, people that haven't learned about Paul yet, people that want to be socially accepted.... these people are ALL VOTING FOR MITT AND NEWT - Santorum to a lesser degree.

These people can be swayed.

Ron's numbers just rise steadily because once you go Ron Paul, there is no going back.

[european]

I like the ideas and theory, but why hasn't Mitt or Newt received full support by now? They are both over the tipping point. I also think politics isn't the same as color tvs or cell phones.

They are fighting over the same meme. So their vote is split. And that you see people going from one candidate to another, under influence of the media, confirms the priorities this group has.

Dr Paul has a totally different meme.

[millercards]

Newt Gingrich = AOL
Mitt Romney = Myspace

Ron Paul = Facebook + Twitter

[slamhead]

The OP is interesting in the fact I got the same feeling from the debate last night. I was going to post something similar. I got off the boards last night because there were so many negative nancys or perhaps people that do not have patience. We are almost there and what gave me hope last night were the videos of all the Ron Paul supporters out lining the streets. People attending the debate could not ignore that. It gives one pause when they see so many of the devoted. Keep it up people, this is where it gets exciting. This is when the Ron Paul supporters start taking to the streets. I am not horribly optimistic about FL but people have to realize this is a winner take all state. Whomever spends money in FL and gets less than first place has thrown away their money. NV, MN, and LA will be our tipping point I believe.

[doctorfunk]

doctorfunk, it's simple

Mitt and Newt do not have the backing that Paul has. Ron Paul's supporters/voters are all legit voters dedicated to only Ron Paul. He is a cause, a movement, a viral hope.

A TON of Mitt and Newt votes come from people that just don't know any better. They only see what the TV tells them, and they only know about the guys that the TV talks about.

People don't vote for Ron Paul for shallow reasons..... YET.

All of the bandwagon jumpers, people fooled by the media, people that haven't learned about Paul yet, people that want to be socially accepted.... these people are ALL VOTING FOR MITT AND NEWT - Santorum to a lesser degree.

These people can be swayed.

Ron's numbers just rise steadily because once you go Ron Paul, there is no going back.
I would agree that Dr. Paul's supporters are the most devoted. And not just devoted to him but devoted to his ideas and the movement. But I think it's naive to say there is some inevitable tipping point when there are other candidates already over that number and didn't receive any such benefit. I do think the movement is growing and will increase as more people really hear what he's saying, but I also know there are a lot of people that disagree with him on fundamental issues and no matter how mainstream he becomes they will not support him.

[Maltheus]

All I know is that I got a mail, out of the blue, from an old high school friend, working in Washington saying that, while she'll still vote for Obama, if it came down to Paul-Obama, she'd have to pause and think about it after that debate. Apparently, he's sounding less crazy to her. I would have never tried to convert this person. Figured she was a lost cause. But if he's starting to get through to people like her, then I'm feeling rather optimistic this morning.

[slamhead]

I like the ideas and theory, but why hasn't Mitt or Newt received full support by now? They are both over the tipping point. I also think politics isn't the same as color tvs or cell phones.

Here are the Romney supporters.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRSiScXjnLI

[millercards]

I would agree that Dr. Paul's supporters are the most devoted. And not just devoted to him but devoted to his ideas and the movement. But I think it's naive to say there is some inevitable tipping point when there are other candidates already over that number and didn't receive any such benefit. I do think the movement is growing and will increase as more people really hear what he's saying, but I also know there are a lot of people that disagree with him on fundamental issues and no matter how mainstream he becomes they will not support him.

Well it would not have to be full support. It would have to be 50%+ 1 support. If 50% +1 of the voters just are that against Ron Paul that they'd never give him a chance, then that's the worst case scenario.

A big issue for many is electability. Every little bit Paul's numbers grow, he appears a little more electable. For a few people it may only take a slight rise, but those few people would turn it into a moderate rise which would sway even more people. These people join in and make it an even better rise, bringing even more in..... kind of a slippery slope.

If/When he wins his first state, then we can really start to stomp out the "unelectable" propaganda.

While all of the above happens, we're still making more people notice. This means more true-Paulite converts.

To win I think we need something like the following:

20% True converted Paullites
10% Fiscal Conservatives who don't think he's electable yet but at some point are convinced
5% Vote for the lesser of all evils (those that still disagree with Paul some, but less than the others)
5% Swayed by the Bandwagon Effect

That'd be 40% and at that point, a lot of other Republicans would have to really think. Which guy can really beat Obama? Maybe the one that does the best with Independents and Liberals? The hardcore Ron Paul voters probably won't switch if we nominate someone else.....

These thoughts might (I think they would) lead to us getting over 50% for the GOP.

[doctorfunk]

Here are the Romney supporters.

He paid people to do a job, and unless this is happening with all of his supporters it's a non issue. And as far as weak supporters, I think a very big part of the population will always be soft supporters. We need them too if we want to win.

[affa]

No, because we're not absolutists. It's not about Nevada. We've just got to keep plugging away and keep standing strong. Our numbers are increasing. Exponential growth WILL happen, but we can't pinpoint exactly when the message will catch; perhaps it will be Nevada, perhaps it will be mid-February, perhaps it will be later. It'll happen, just stand strong.

saying 'win nevada, win america!' is not absolutist. heck, the campaign has similar messages on its ticker all the time - $6 million to win!

the absolutism Ron Paul tries to avoid is painting himself in a corner and limiting his future options. That slogan doesn't remotely do that.

[affa]

I would agree that Dr. Paul's supporters are the most devoted. And not just devoted to him but devoted to his ideas and the movement. But I think it's naive to say there is some inevitable tipping point when there are other candidates already over that number and didn't receive any such benefit. I do think the movement is growing and will increase as more people really hear what he's saying, but I also know there are a lot of people that disagree with him on fundamental issues and no matter how mainstream he becomes they will not support him.

The other candidates don't get that backing because their support base is manufactured. Their support was never a support of their ideas, but a chaotic support that barely understands why or what it is supporting. It's the laughter in the room that didn't get the joke... but wanted to fit in.

That energy IS the tipping point... you say these men didn't benefit from it, but they did. How else do you think Santorum went from 1% to winning Iowa in 2 weeks? It was a media manufactured gold rush to him. They provided the illusion of tipping point numbers, and ended up creating the surge they spoke of. But these are hollow men, with hollow ideas, and mostly hollow support. We might all rush out to try that new candy bar everybody is talking about, but if it tastes horrible, we're not going to buy it again.

Ron Paul, however, is the real deal. He is not a manufactured brand, but rather, stands for principle and ideology. And as he speaks, his support grows. This isn't manufactured support, it is real, hard-earned, loyal support. When Ron Paul reaches the tipping point, no other candidate has a chance.

[millercards]

In my eyes... the headline would say "Win Nevada and win the Whole Thing"

Then the story would paint out the details. It wouldn't guarantee a victory, but it would be a major ingredient.

[millercards]

Ron Paul, however, is the real deal. He is not a manufactured brand, but rather, stands for principle and ideology. And as he speaks, his support grows. This isn't manufactured support, it is real, hard-earned, loyal support. When Ron Paul reaches the tipping point, no other candidate has a chance.


^^ This

[affa]

I like the ideas and theory, but why hasn't Mitt or Newt received full support by now? They are both over the tipping point. I also think politics isn't the same as color tvs or cell phones.

that's not how it works. the end goal with a tipping point, or critical mass, is not necessarily 100% support. It is general acceptance.

And once it becomes acceptable to support Ron Paul, more will look into him. More will finally 'hear' him, rather than block it out because they've heard he's crazy or kooky.

Gingrich, Romney, Santorum... they speak in platitudes. Empty words. Fear mongering, war mongering. Talking Points. It's grand theater to them. At their core, they are establishment. Men like them have survived for decades in power because only those susceptible to such talk bought into them. Others weren't fully on board with them, but voted for them as the 'lesser of two evils'.

A great many, however, saw through them. We had no voice. We had no cause. We had no one to represent us. And now we do.

This is why the media attacks both Ron Paul and his supporters at every opportunity. Kooky. Conspiracy theorists. Young. Anything, and everything, to keep others from actually looking into us. Because once we become acceptable... once Ron Paul reaches enough people, we win.

[affa]

In my eyes... the headline would say "Win Nevada and win the Whole Thing"

Then the story would paint out the details. It wouldn't guarantee a victory, but it would be a major ingredient.

Yea, I don't know what state it should be.

But I think perhaps we need to present a challenge. We need to offer a prize.
The challenge is to a specific state, to stand up for liberty and give RP 1st. The prize offered is the presidency.

[millercards]

Yea, I don't know what state it should be.

But I think perhaps we need to present a challenge. We need to offer a prize.
The challenge is to a specific state, to stand up for liberty and give RP 1st. The prize offered is the presidency.

Yeah, I'm not great with which state feels what. It did seem like we got the same percentage from Nevada and Minnesota.

Nevada seems like a good place because of it's significance. I think it would help us in the west more than Minnesota would help us in the north central.

Either way.... what do we gotta do to push this as an idea.... grassroots or campaign or superPac?

in the text or subheads, I can see it now:

"Calling All GrassRoot Supporters! Californians, Utahians?, Arizonians, New Mexicans, NEVADANS especially... We NEED YOU NOW! Let's see the biggest grassroots movement we've ever seen and let's win Nevada."

This would be a huge blow to the unelectability propaganda.

[ConCap]

Science says if 15% of a population remain unshakeable in their belief, it causes a groundswell that allows the idea to flourish at an exponential rate.

So I'd say the tipping point would be regularly polling over 15% in the national Real Clear Politics average. We're close to getting over 15% for the first time there, but who knows what percentage of that 15% is unshakeable. That's why we need to be steadily over 15%.

Newt has done it, Romney has done it, Santorum has not, Ron Paul has not. If we can hit it steadily before Santorum, we have a real path to victory. If not, it will become that much harder because we'll have one more candidate that people view as realistic competing in the mix.


I think I remember reading some where that only 17% of the population in the America at the time, was for the revolutionary war.

[mosquitobite]

Yes ofcourse, I'm happy to. First let me show you what social proof is by presenting to you a dancing equivalent of Ron Paul, dancing to the beat of "Unstoppable" (which we are!).


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSYUueIFMZE


LOVE IT!!

[Fredom101]

Saw a young woman say after the debate that she thought Ron Paul was the best one up there because he was straight forward with his answer and the other guys seemed to be just attacking each other.

I think this is becoming more and more common among regular people. (Not counting the converted Paullites)

I think there is also a large mass of people that still are hesitant because we seem 'kooky' or whatever word the media feeds them. It seems there are many hesitant to support Paul because of his unelectability propaganda.

At some point though... you would have to think.... there will be a TIPPING POINT.

At some point, people will see the percentages, start believing Paul has a chance, and they'll join the good fight.

The climb will then gain momentum (grassrooted converts + tipping point converts).

More people will join as our vote totals grow.

At some point, this momentum could tip.... and the votes would start to Pour in. If and once we find that point, I think it's over, we win.

Thoughts on this? How do we get to the Tipping Point? What percentage of votes do we need? 30+ in 2 consecutive states?

I agree with this sentiment. John from the John & Ken show in LA just came out as pro-Ron Paul after the whole Rand TSA incident. I think Ron is making his case powerfully, especially at the end of last nights debate where he laid out what a conservative is. Do you want big government? Fine, vote for the other guys. Or do you want liberty? It's SO clear now that a more people can see it since 08.

The tipping point is happening as we speak. Florida is unwinnable, but I'll be RP gets 15% or so and surprises a few people, moving on to the states where he'll be stronger. I'm excited for this pandora's box of liberty to be opened here soon...

[mosquitobite]

Same video with narration:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hO8MwBZl-Vc&feature=player_embedded

Why *WE* matter more than the leader! :D

[thesnake742]

That video rules. Looks like it perfectly sums things up! We know what we gotta do now.

[millercards]

That video rules. Looks like it perfectly sums things up! We know what we gotta do now.

Yes, it's definately clear.

We gotta DANCE!

[european]

I made a blog out of this topic, for those interested:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/entry.php?542-The-meme-the-libertymovement-the-tipping-point-amp-what-it-means-to-the-campaign-strategy

and yeah dance baby dance! ;)

[millercards]

What a night! Kickass debate performance. John King recognizes Ron Paul being in 2nd in delegates. Santorum got trashed.

Are we closer to this tipping point?

We are putting pressure on the mass media, making it a lot harder for them to ignore us.

Keep up the good fight.

[J_White]

i just hope this tipping point is reached before Super Tuesday !
will it be of use if this is reached after ST ?