BREAKING - Iran 'definitely' closing Strait of Hormuz in the event of an EU oil embargo

[Philosophy_of_Politics]

Headline [BREAKING]: Iran 'definitely' closing Strait of Hormuz over EU oil embargo

Tensions in the Gulf could reach a breaking point as a senior Iranian official said Iran would “definitely” close the Strait of Hormuz if an EU oil embargo disrupted the export of crude oil, the semi-official Fars news agency reports.

The announcement came in response to a decision by the European Union on Monday to impose an oil embargo on Iran over the country’s alleged nuclear weapons program.

“The pressure of sanctions is designed to try and make sure that Iran takes seriously our request to come to the table,” EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said.

However, with Washington’s decision to deploy a second carrier strike group in the Gulf, the EU’s attempt to pressure Iran economically could greatly increase the likelihood of all-out war in the region.

The Strait of Hormuz is the vital link between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

It is also one of the most strategic chokepoints in the world when it comes to oil transit.

With world oil output estimated at some 88 million barrels per day in 2011, the US Energy Information Administration estimated that some 17 million of those barrels passed through the Strait.

If economic sanctions sufficiently pressure Iran to retaliate by closing down the Strait, nearly 20 per cent of worldwide oil trade would be impacted, resulting in a massive spike in global energy costs.

I figured this is something worthy of GR general. This is big news.

hxxp ://rt.com/news/iran-close-strait-hormuz-embargo-455/

[Oddone]

Well then we will have to see if the EU oil embargo goes through.

[Drex]

Time to fill up the gas tank

[AngryCanadian]

I have a feeling there will be World War III soon.

[Oddone]

Time to fill up the gas tank

More like fill up a bunch of Gas cans. :p

[luctor-et-emergo]

Pumping up the oil prices..... Who's profiting ?

[The_Ruffneck]

It's Eye-Rakk all over again guys , GET DEM MOOZLUMZ , Go dash their NUKULAR AMBISHONS!!!!
Santorum for Prez! #1

Seriously though if Obama does launch an attack on Iran wouldn't his support drop 20%+?

[EaSy]

Today's news in my country claims that EU already issued ambargo on crude oil from Iran...

BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16674660

[Philosophy_of_Politics]

It's Eye-Rakk all over again guys , GET DEM MOOZLUMZ , Go dash their NUKULAR AMBISHONS!!!!
Santorum for Prez! #1

Seriously though if Obama does launch an attack on Iran wouldn't his support drop 20%+?

Yes, and they know this will happen. Why do you think he's becoming so arrogant with his actions on this matter? They have a plan, best believe it.

[Aratus]

this is not good. positions and stances are hardening and escallating.
jon huntsman and ron paul were not pushing for a war at all, and now
dr. ron paul stands alone amoung a field of rabied jingoistic warhawks!

[Constitutional Paulicy]

This is saber rattling as usual. Nothing new here. Move along.

[Oddone]

Today's news in my country claims that EU already issued ambargo on crude oil from Iran...

Oh snap. Yea just checked, It said they passed the Embargo on Google.

[luctor-et-emergo]

Today's news in my country claims that EU already issued ambargo on crude oil from Iran...

I believe they did so too yes.
And they will anyways. Sarkozy and Cameron are warmongers.

[goldpants]

I have a feeling there will be World WIII soon.

Death & Debt
or
Peace & Prosperity
America Ron Paul has the right answer

[cartemj06]

Why do I feel like the whole damn world is goin crazy and no one is telling us what's going on?

[69360]

I think it's rhetoric from both sides. The Lincoln sailed through the straights into the Gulf yesterday without incident.

[KingRobbStark]

Crap.

[Varin]

Very bad for the debate.

[niklarin]

No war here guys (nobody can afford it)... The only thing that worries me is our candidates articulacy on the answer he will be giving at the debate tonight...

[69360]

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/23/10213179-uss-lincoln-sails-through-strait-of-hormuz


The Vinson is also in the Arabian sea.

So we have 2 carrier battle groups within range of Iran. They could launch exocet SAMSs against our ships, but it would be suicidal. The chances of sinking 2 battle groups without a retaliatory strike is just about zero.

They can't really challenge our ships on the water. Their Navy is akin to our coast guard, a costal defense force.

[Philosophy_of_Politics]

I think it's rhetoric from both sides. The Lincoln sailed through the straights into the Gulf yesterday without incident.

RT News is usually fairly accurate on foreign affairs. This is Iran "talking big," but you know the "foreign policy experts" will pre-emptively strike, and then the media will report it as Iran being the aggressor.

[luctor-et-emergo]

I think it's rhetoric from both sides. The Lincoln sailed through the straights into the Gulf yesterday without incident.

Yes it's rhetoric.

IRAN) They won't fire, as they know they are sitting ducks. They might do some damage, maybe sink one US ship, but they'd lose their navy overnight, have their nuclear facilities bombed the same day. Their ONLY oil refinery will be destroyed as one of the first targets I imagine.

US) Would win the battle, but lose the war. As with Afghanistan, Iran is very mountainous, 3 times the size of Iraq, and it has a somewhat radicalized population. Not to say it's the same as Afghanistan, because it's not. But some of the same problems, and others would rise later on.

Besides that. For the US it's economic suicide to have oil prices rise so dramatically. The economy would tank, inflation would rise due to government stimulus, besides all the printing for the war itself. Everything would get a lot more expensive, on top of the inflation there already is... This is a recipe for hyperinflation in my view.

[swissaustrian]

The oil market is hardly reacting and there is only one source. I will wait for a confirmation for that before I believe it.

[luctor-et-emergo]

The oil market is hardly reacting and there is only one source. I will wait for a confirmation for that before I believe it.

All the traders watch FOX and CNN :) They don't see things until it's too late.

Anyways, Crude prices are still quite high, and the threat of closing straights has been there for a while now, so they adjusted to that amount of threat.
Just wait until Fox/CNN start reporting on this.

[swissaustrian]

All the traders watch FOX and CNN :)

They don't see things until it's too late.
The markets are dominated by high frequency trading today, i.e. computers. They're discounting new Information in nanoseconds.

[HOLLYWOOD]

Why do you think NATO & US assassinated the Qaddafi government of Libya? That $5 trillion in high grade, uninterupted crude when the war with IRAN starts.

All according to plan.

[wilcox71]

Pumping up the oil prices..... Who's profiting ?

Follow the money...

[Feeding the Abscess]

this is not good. positions and stances are hardening and escallating.
jon huntsman and ron paul were not pushing for a war at all, and now
dr. ron paul stands alone amoung a field of rabied jingoistic warhawks!

Na, even Huntsman said he'd send in ground troops to Iran.

[HOLLYWOOD]

Follow the money...Especially the Sales Tax many states have on gas. higher the price, the more revenue for government. Now you know why government loves inflation. That little racketeering between; realtors, banks, and government in the housing sector, well, how's did that work out for the people/homeowners?

[The_Ruffneck]

link me

[LoneWolf]

DAMNIT!!!!!! Gas is high enough already! Wife don't even get paid till this afternoon it was 3.35 yesterday at this rate its gonna be 5.35 come this afternoon...sigh...I gotta drive 55 miles one way later this week...getting tired of this crap.

[Philosophy_of_Politics]

link me

Edited my first post.

[Working Poor]

I feel for the people of Iran. They are innocent but they will be the ones who suffer. I hope as many who can will leave there.

[Aratus]

Na, even Huntsman said he'd send in ground troops to Iran.

he's the less glandular, rabied and jingoistic warhawk, then...

[rb3b3]

i accidently came across this video that was uploaded a day or so ago.... check this out it is insane!!!! but now today after rerading this thread it makes sense!!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n118IwMQQPc

[moostraks]

I feel for the people of Iran. They are innocent but they will be the ones who suffer. I hope as many who can will leave there.

Iran has the support of China and Russia. We are going to get bit hard by the profiteers that control our government. Iranians might not be the only ones who want to get out of Dodge...

[flightlesskiwi]

Why do you think NATO & US assassinated the Qaddafi government of Libya? That $5 trillion in high grade, uninterupted crude when the war with IRAN starts.

All according to plan.

was gonna say.... wut?? but then:


Especially the Sales Tax many states have on gas. higher the price, the more revenue for government. Now you know why government loves inflation. That little racketeering between; realtors, banks, and government in the housing sector, well, how's did that work out for the people/homeowners?

that sweet crude is to keep the MIC in bidzness.

[moostraks]

i accidently came across this video that was uploaded a day or so ago.... check this out it is insane!!!! but now today after rerading this thread it makes sense!!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n118IwMQQPc

Comments section said that was in Santa Cruz and someone else said they saw the samething in Oregon. I wonder where the rail lines run out there and who is doing this contract? Interesting thing is these aren't painted for desert warfare. So wonder where they might need to increase/replace with these colors. Hmm....

[rb3b3]

Comments section said that was in Santa Cruz and someone else said they saw the samething in Oregon. I wonder where the rail lines run out there and who is doing this contract? Interesting thing is these aren't painted for desert warfare. So wonder where they might need to increase/replace with these colors. Hmm....

oh sorry i had no idea it was already posted in here somewhere// but this is insane!!!! i wonder where they are going? hope this video goes viral with comments like, please vote for ron paul so we can put an end to these wars!!!!!

[Demigod]

The EU are morons half of Eastern Europe uses Iranian oil if the put an embargo it will drive up the prices leading to recession.The idiots are going to start another war.

[Oddone]

Comments section said that was in Santa Cruz and someone else said they saw the samething in Oregon. I wonder where the rail lines run out there and who is doing this contract? Interesting thing is these aren't painted for desert warfare. So wonder where they might need to increase/replace with these colors. Hmm....

I added a new comment to the video. Yes, they are the wrong color. Usually what they do is ship them out to locations like Red River Army Depot in Texas to be re-fitted and re-painted before deployment. They usually come down to Texas via train or semi-trailor if it's a small number. I live in Texas and have had family that worked there. Before Iraq the same thing happened, huge loads of Military vehicles were shipped via train to Red River for Re-fitting for the desert. Also a lot of the vehicles comeing back go there as well.

[hazek]

*wrong thread*

[unknown]

Regardless of what happens, Iran will be blamed.

Ignore the fact that anything they're doing is completely reactionary.

War is great! People rally behind the POTUS in the face of an external threat and our economy is collapsing so its a great distraction. Its a win/win for the establishment.

If Obama plays this right, he might be able to ride the war bounce into the White House for another four years.

[thoughtomator]

If Obama plays this right, he might be able to ride the war bounce into the White House for another four years.

This has been telegraphed all along. A few months ago people called me crazy and hysterical for pointing this out.

[nbruno322]

Oh come on man enough with the sensational headlines....the part about that the Iranians would "definitely" close the straits only if the EU imposed an oil embargo was left out of the headline, making it look imminent, which it certainly is not, the EU embargo is slated to start in July, if it even becomes fully implemented since Spain, Italy, and Greece get large amounts of Iranian oil and do not want an oil embargo.

[lakefx]

....

[Lishy]

Isn't Iran technically allowed to shut it down since it's their own territory? We are violating international law of their sovereignty.

[69360]

Isn't Iran technically allowed to shut it down since it's their own territory? We are violating international law of their sovereignty.

The UN treaty of the sea applies and Iran is a signatory. They allow passage through their waters by treaty.

[swissaustrian]

The key to the Strait of Hormuz problem for Ron Paul is this:
1. Iran only controls half of the Strait of Hormuz, the other half is controlled by Oman.
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/08/~/media/Images/Reports/2011/08/bg2599/bg2599_map1600px.ashx?w=600&h=485&as=1
That means that ships could always use the Omanian part of the strait, except when the Iranians ceized the Omanian territory which would be an act of war against Oman. This is totally blacked out by the msm. According to wikipedia, Oman is trying to solve the conflict peacefully and has the best diplomatic relations with Iran of the Arab nations:

Oman and Iran share close diplomatic, economic, and military ties. According to Kenneth Katzman of the Congressional Research Service, “Oman has a tradition of cooperation with Iran dating back to the Shah of Iran’s regime and Oman has always been less alarmed by the perceived threat from Iran than have the other Gulf states.” Unlike the majority of its Gulf neighbors, Oman managed to uphold diplomatic relations with both sides during the Iran-Iraq war from 1980-1988 and strongly supported UN Security Council resolutions to end the conflict. Secret cease-fire talks between the two adversaries were held in Muscat during the war, and although an agreement was never reached during these talks, they did reduce distrust on both sides. Moreover, after the war, Oman mediated talks to restore diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia and Iran and the United Kingdom.
During the Persian Gulf War, Iran-Oman relations were damaged after Iran began running attacks on tanker movements in the Persian Gulf and placed anti-ship missile launchers along the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf neighbors have since restored their ties and have conducted joint military exercises as recently as February 2011. Oman’s leader Sultan Qaboos traveled to Iran in 2009 for the first time since Iran’s 1979 revolution. Though on two occasions the U.S. has dispatched high-level officials to discuss Iran with Oman, the fact that Oman has avoided publicly expressing any concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear program is likely a reason why the two states have managed to maintain strong ties.
In addition to strong diplomatic and political ties, Iran and Oman cooperate economically on several fronts, including energy. Most recently, the Gulf neighbors signed an initial agreement to begin supplying large quantities of natural gas from Iran to Oman, a project that was earlier reported to be worth between $7-12 billion. In addition to these major economic projects, the two countries have opened a joint bank to facilitate their mutual financial dealings, agreed to develop the Kish and Hengam gas fields in the Gulf, and signed a memorandum of understanding for a potential joint petrochemical project valued at $800 million.
About Iran nuclear program, the Omani government official position on Iran’s nuclear program is as follows: “The sultanate hopes Washington will engage in a ‘direct dialogue’ with Teheran to resolve the crisis over the Iranian nuclear program. The sultanate has no reason not to believe Iran’s assurances that its program has purely civilian purposes. This region, no doubt, does not want to see any military confrontation or any tension".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab%E2%80%93Iran_relations#Oman
2. Even if Iran closed the strait completely, therefore delcaring war on Oman, the the principle of the freedom of the seas could be invoked by the US, meaning congress could declare war The principle is customary international law, that body of rules that nations consider binding in their relations with one another. It derives from the practice of nations in the international arena and from their international agreements. The principle allows naval forces (both military and commercial) of every country to transit the territorial waters of another nation if they are an international strait (see here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transit_passage ). This is described here in detail:

Transit Passage Through International Straits. The right of warships to enjoy navigational freedoms while transiting through an international strait has been largely unchallenged for centuries. This is primarily because the coastal states that border on international straits have historically claimed only a 3 nm territorial sea. Since almost all strategic international straits are wider than 6 nm, warships could transit using the corridor of high seas in the middle of the strait without entering the territorial waters of the coastal states. Thus, “the ships and aircraft of all nations had the uncontested right to pass through such strategically important straits as Gibraltar, Hormuz, Bab el Mandeb, Lombok and Malacca, regardless of the political unpopularity of their mission.”
However, shortly after World War II, many coastal states bordering on international straits (straits states) began to claim territorial seas of greater and greater breadth.By 1979, only 23 states, including the United States, still claimed a territorial sea of only 3 nm, while 76 states claimed a territorial sea of 12 nm. (The U.S. did not extend its territorial sea to 12 nm until December 1988.)These expanded claims could have “closed” several key international straits, because the high seas corridors through the centers of these straits were reclassified as territorial waters of the straits states and were therefore subject to the restrictive regime of innocent passage.
...
While transiting, warships may conduct activities that are “incident to their normal modes” of transit.
...
U.S. officials have made it clear that “long-standing international practice bears out the right of all States to transit straits used for international navigation” and that no nation may “prohibit passage of foreign vessels or aircraft in a manner that interferes with straits transit.”
States have long enjoyed the right to navigate through international straits under the customary international law of the sea. That customary right became threatened after World War II when several straits states claimed territorial seas of 12 nm or greater. To address these competing rights, a compromise was reached during UNCLOS III that recognized claims to a 12 nm territorial sea but preserved the long-standing customary right of passage through international straits.

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/08/accession-to-un-convention-law-of-the-sea-is-unnecessary-to-secure-us-navigational-rights-freedoms

[moostraks]

I added a new comment to the video. Yes, they are the wrong color. Usually what they do is ship them out to locations like Red River Army Depot in Texas to be re-fitted and re-painted before deployment. They usually come down to Texas via train or semi-trailor if it's a small number. I live in Texas and have had family that worked there. Before Iraq the same thing happened, huge loads of Military vehicles were shipped via train to Red River for Re-fitting for the desert. Also a lot of the vehicles comeing back go there as well.

so does that prevent them from being readily apparent when in transit here? curious why the two paint jobs?

[dan5430]

How does nobody bring up the reason Japan attacked Pearl Harbor was because of the US oil embargo against them??

Sanctions and embargos are acts of war....right?

[Cowlesy]

Yeah good luck with that, Iran. :rolleyes:

[flightlesskiwi]

How does nobody bring up the reason Japan attacked Pearl Harbor was because of the US oil embargo against them??

Sanctions and embargos are acts of war....right?

i pretty much have made up my mind that "sanctions" and "embargoes" are the modern definition for siege.

[EBounding]

The key to the Strait of Hormuz problem for Ron Paul is this:
1. Iran only controls half of the Strait of Hormuz, the other half is controlled by Oman.
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/08/~/media/Images/Reports/2011/08/bg2599/bg2599_map1600px.ashx?w=600&h=485&as=1
That means that ships could always use the Omanian part of the strait, except when the Iranians ceized the Omanian territory which would be an act of war against Oman. This is totally blacked out by the msm. According to wikipedia, Oman is trying to solve the conflict peacefully and has the best diplomatic relations with Iran of the Arab nations:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab%E2%80%93Iran_relations#Oman
2. Even if Iran closed the strait completely, therefore delcaring war on Oman, the the principle of the freedom of the seas could be invoked by the US, meaning congress could declare war The principle is customary international law, that body of rules that nations consider binding in their relations with one another. It derives from the practice of nations in the international arena and from their international agreements. The principle allows naval forces (both military and commercial) of every country to transit the territorial waters of another nation if they are an international strait (see here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transit_passage ). This is described here in detail:

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/08/accession-to-un-convention-law-of-the-sea-is-unnecessary-to-secure-us-navigational-rights-freedoms

These are great points. I just don't think he's going to mention them though.

[thoughtomator]

i pretty much have made up my mind that "sanctions" and "embargoes" are the modern definition for siege.

That's exactly what they are. The US is deliberately starting a war with Iran despite the people being clearly against it... our government is completely rogue and is going to get us into WW3

[ZENemy]

Wow, at which point do we have to storm in and pyhsically remove those in power? Sometimes it seems like that is going to be the only way. Our leaders are out of control and are doing whatever they please.

[libertygrl]

How does nobody bring up the reason Japan attacked Pearl Harbor was because of the US oil embargo against them??

Sanctions and embargos are acts of war....right?

Right. It's interesting this subject was brought up because last last night I was watching an author on Book tv discuss President's Hoover's opinions about Japan before the attack on Pearl Harbor. Hover's objections and principles about going to war was like listening to Ron Paul speak!

Herbert Hoover writes about World War II and the Cold War in what's been called a magnum opus, published 50 years after the former president completed it. In it, he sharply criticizes the wartime decisions of Presidents Roosevelt and Truman and analyzes their consequences. The presidential writings were edited by Hoover expert George Nash, who discusses them with presidential historian Richard Norton Smith, the author of "An Uncommon Man: The Triumph of Herbert Hoover."

You can find the video here:

http://www.booktv.org/Program/13108/After+Words+George+Nash+ed+Freedom+Betrayed+Herber t+Hoovers+Secret+History+of+the+Second+World+War+a nd+Its+Aftermath+hosted+by+Richard+Norton+Smith+Ge orge+Mason+University.aspx

[James Madison]

How does nobody bring up the reason Japan attacked Pearl Harbor was because of the US oil embargo against them??

Sanctions and embargos are acts of war....right?

The oil embargo against Japan was to bait them into a pre-emptive attack against the United States. Sounds like the exact same thing we're doing to Iran right now.

[Todd]

i accidently came across this video that was uploaded a day or so ago.... check this out it is insane!!!! but now today after rerading this thread it makes sense!!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n118IwMQQPc

Not saying that the video isn't what you think, but many times units railhead their tactical equipment to other US bases so they can conduct training events at different locations in different training environments. Was this going East to West?

[flightlesskiwi]

The oil embargo against Japan was to bait them into a pre-emptive attack against the United States. Sounds like the exact same thing we're doing to Iran right now.

exactly. a siege. starve them to the point of giving them no choice but to fight.

history is cyclical. we in the post modern age just like to use new words.

[liveandletlive]

Obama is as duplicitious as they come, using soft power to make himself look like a diplomat, but doing the complete opposite, bragging about how he's leaving the Iranian economy in shambles (ironically the same thing he's doing to us domestically)

The Russians have a mutual defense treaty with Iran...even a Neocon would not be dumb enough to invite a war with Russia. its obvious they want the Iranians to strike first.

The neocons see no difference between a region-wide war and a nuclear armed Iran.

[sailingaway]

Well, it is relevant because it will come up at the debate, and doubtless Ron will be asked.

[ZENemy]

Well, it is relevant because it will come up at the debate, and doubtless Ron will be asked.


Well Rons answer should be "If they are threatening to close it, its because of the sanctions we and others are placing on them, remove the sanctions and resume talks" ?

[Captain Shays]

Yes, and they know this will happen. Why do you think he's becoming so arrogant with his actions on this matter? They have a plan, best believe it.

You're looking at this all wrong. Democrats were the party in power during the start of just about every major war we've had especially during the 20th century and just about every time our economy was floundering and they didn't know what to do to fix it. War brought us out of the dulldrums every time. Even Paul Krugman wrote a piece a couple of years ago calling for a good war to help stimulate the economy.

Also, the American people rarely unseat a sitting president in times of war. This won't start by itself. Look for a Gulf of Tonkin type incident that can be used as a pretext for a larger scale involvement. It could also come in the form of a more strategic style attack on one of our bases in Iraq before any serious hostilities ensue.
Contrary to the opinion that Obama's ratings will go down if we get into it with Iran from my analysis an "attack" on a US war ship and the ensuing large scale conflict will nearly assure Obama's reelection.

[gerryb]

[url]
They can't really challenge our ships on the water. Their Navy is akin to our coast guard, a costal defense force.

Our coast guard is the 2nd largest deep water Navy in the world.

[tommyzDad]

It's Eye-Rakk all over again guys , GET DEM MOOZLUMZ , Go dash their NUKULAR AMBISHONS!!!!
Santorum for Prez! #1

Seriously though if Obama does launch an attack on Iran wouldn't his support drop 20%+?

And hopefully support for Newt, Rom, and Santorum drops as well?

[F3d]

Well Rons answer should be "If they are threatening to close it, its because of the sanctions we and others are placing on them, remove the sanctions and resume talks" ?

It's not good bringing sanctions up. They'll think he's like Carter.

[fatjohn]

Well Rons answer should be "If they are threatening to close it, its because of the sanctions we and others are placing on them, remove the sanctions and resume talks" ?

- Booooooo. Boooooooooohooooooooooowoowoooboooooooo!

-Gingrich: No congresman Paul, we should kill em and eat their babies!

- Awooohooooo yeah *clapclapclap* yeah

[everlasticity]

Did it occur to anyone that a war verse Iran could actually be the big event that this country needs to allow the public to stand behind Paul. The administration is just looking for an excuse to enter into war. Should there be an attack on US vessels in the Straight of Hormuz, we would have no choice as a country but to retaliate. The congress would probably support a declaration of war, for which Paul would probably vote for. Then Ron Paul could justifiably run as a war candidate.

[deputydon]

I can't wait for this to start WWIII and then we look back on that video from yesterday or the day before with the military commander saying that Ron Paul would start WWIII.

I wish Reagan was still alive so he could endorse Ron Paul like he pretty much did on his foreign policy back in the 80's.

[acptulsa]

Yes it's rhetoric.

Don't be too sure.


IRAN) They won't fire, as they know they are sitting ducks. They might do some damage, maybe sink one US ship, but they'd lose their navy overnight, have their nuclear facilities bombed the same day. Their ONLY oil refinery will be destroyed as one of the first targets I imagine.

US) Would win the battle, but lose the war. As with Afghanistan, Iran is very mountainous, 3 times the size of Iraq, and it has a somewhat radicalized population. Not to say it's the same as Afghanistan, because it's not. But some of the same problems, and others would rise later on.

Besides that. For the US it's economic suicide to have oil prices rise so dramatically. The economy would tank, inflation would rise due to government stimulus, besides all the printing for the war itself. Everything would get a lot more expensive, on top of the inflation there already is... This is a recipe for hyperinflation in my view.

All true. But when the decision makers in Washington aren't nearly so worried about U.S. interests as the interests of the Federal Reserve, which I might add do not at all coincide, then rational decisions are liable not to be made.

[acptulsa]

exactly. a siege. starve them to the point of giving them no choice but to fight.

history is cyclical. we in the post modern age just like to use new words.

And why do we use new words? We're taught to so that they can keep history cyclical. For example: Those with a vested interest in more war with the middle east frown upon the use of the word Crusades. The reason they do is simple--Crusades were kind of proven to be nothing but a quest for loot which in no way benefit the poor fools who actually fight them. So, if we called these Crusades by their right name, it might be hard on recruitment.

[acptulsa]

You're looking at this all wrong. Democrats were the party in power during the start of just about every major war we've had especially during the 20th century and just about every time our economy was floundering and they didn't know what to do to fix it. War brought us out of the dulldrums every time. Even Paul Krugman wrote a piece a couple of years ago calling for a good war to help stimulate the economy.

Also, the American people rarely unseat a sitting president in times of war. This won't start by itself. Look for a Gulf of Tonkin type incident that can be used as a pretext for a larger scale involvement. It could also come in the form of a more strategic style attack on one of our bases in Iraq before any serious hostilities ensue.
Contrary to the opinion that Obama's ratings will go down if we get into it with Iran from my analysis an "attack" on a US war ship and the ensuing large scale conflict will nearly assure Obama's reelection.

They're still in uncharted territory. Yes, war stimulates the economy, but they've never started wars in the middle of the postwar depressions from the last wars before, and it isn't working. And the old notion of 'don't change jockeys in the middle of the race' is pretty irrelevant now that we're in Perpetual War. It worked for Dubya in '08, sure--but since then we've actually had to change horses in the middle due to a certain Constitutional amendment. And the world didn't end. Hell, we voted for an ostensibly anti-war candidate and the damned wars didn't even end. In fact, we got ourselves into a couple more.

As for Obama's ratings, the average voter who hates war won't be happy if Obama gets us into another one, especially since they generally just do dimly remember voting for Obama to get us out. And the chickenhawks all hate Obama and are likely to continue to do so. Perpetual War changes the conventional wisdom--and in ways we don't fully understand yet, since this is the first time we've had it...