discing_engineer
01-22-2012, 10:53 AM
Do not worry fellow Freedom and Liberty Fighters we all knew South Carolina and Florida would/will be our two worst states. Here are 11 reasons, more like key milestones, battles and facts, of how and why Ron Paul will become the Republican nominee at the November 4th RNC convention in Tampa Florida. As Ron Paul has stated, and many of us have planned, THIS IS A MARATHON NOT A SPRINT. No one can clinch victory till late summer.
1. The total vote count in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina are:
Romney - 295,170 (33%)
Gingrich - 282,041 (31.6%)
Paul - 161,063 (18%)
Santorum - 155,336 (17.4%)
2. The delegate amount for each state are: Iowa (23) + New Hampshire (12) + South Carolina (25) + Florida (50) = 110 total delegates to be awarded.
3. The first three states are only 1.5% of the total delegate amount.
4. There are 2288 delegates awarded after all the states vote, the first person to reach 1145 wins the nomination.
5. The total delegate amount so far after Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina (these totals are not official and can change) are:
a. Gingrich 25
b. Romney 14
c. Paul 10
d. Santorum 8
6. RNC (Republican National Committee) declared the first 5 states lose 50% of their delegate amounts for violating rules by moving their primary dates to earlier in the year (I believe the establishment did this so the media could portray that Ron Paul is unelectable early on to end the Revolution). Therefore, cut the above delegate amounts in half for each candidate which allows more time for Ron Paul to reach the magic number of 1145 delegates
7. The next four states after FL are Nevada, Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota; all are pro Paul states and award 28, 24, 36, and 40 delegates respectfully. A total of 128 delegates. This is more than the first four states (of 110 delegates), which are anti-Paul states, where Ron Paul has already collected 10 delegates.
8. Flash forward to June 5th when California, a pro-Paul state, votes. This is a winner take all state and has the most delegates of any other state. If the current prediction of Paul winning California, by just one vote, is true he will capture a whopping 172 delegates. That is more than 3x the size of the first four states of Iowa to Florida due to rule violations. 110/2 = 55
9. The second largest delegate amount comes from Texas where Ron Paul has run 12 times for Congress and has won every time; and in many cases by landslides. Texas awards 155 delegates based on proportional voting totals. Texans vote on March 6th; this date is not “set in stone” and may change.
10. Also, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have failed to collect enough signatures and file to be on the ballot in multiple states resulting in a two man race between Romney and Paul for 564 delegates! This almost ruins both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich’s chances of collecting enough delegates to win.
11. The Revolution is growing at a very high rate compared to 2008. When plotted in excel or Matlab to run a simulation these rate and rate increases are almost expediential – meaning once the second American Revolution starts it cannot be stopped :) :)
a. Iowa
2008: 11,841 votes
2012: 26,219 votes
2.2x total votes
New Hampshire
2008: 18,308 votes
2012: 56,872 votes
3.1x total votes
South Carolina
2008: 16,155 votes
2012: 75,283 votes
4.7x total votes
1. The total vote count in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina are:
Romney - 295,170 (33%)
Gingrich - 282,041 (31.6%)
Paul - 161,063 (18%)
Santorum - 155,336 (17.4%)
2. The delegate amount for each state are: Iowa (23) + New Hampshire (12) + South Carolina (25) + Florida (50) = 110 total delegates to be awarded.
3. The first three states are only 1.5% of the total delegate amount.
4. There are 2288 delegates awarded after all the states vote, the first person to reach 1145 wins the nomination.
5. The total delegate amount so far after Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina (these totals are not official and can change) are:
a. Gingrich 25
b. Romney 14
c. Paul 10
d. Santorum 8
6. RNC (Republican National Committee) declared the first 5 states lose 50% of their delegate amounts for violating rules by moving their primary dates to earlier in the year (I believe the establishment did this so the media could portray that Ron Paul is unelectable early on to end the Revolution). Therefore, cut the above delegate amounts in half for each candidate which allows more time for Ron Paul to reach the magic number of 1145 delegates
7. The next four states after FL are Nevada, Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota; all are pro Paul states and award 28, 24, 36, and 40 delegates respectfully. A total of 128 delegates. This is more than the first four states (of 110 delegates), which are anti-Paul states, where Ron Paul has already collected 10 delegates.
8. Flash forward to June 5th when California, a pro-Paul state, votes. This is a winner take all state and has the most delegates of any other state. If the current prediction of Paul winning California, by just one vote, is true he will capture a whopping 172 delegates. That is more than 3x the size of the first four states of Iowa to Florida due to rule violations. 110/2 = 55
9. The second largest delegate amount comes from Texas where Ron Paul has run 12 times for Congress and has won every time; and in many cases by landslides. Texas awards 155 delegates based on proportional voting totals. Texans vote on March 6th; this date is not “set in stone” and may change.
10. Also, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have failed to collect enough signatures and file to be on the ballot in multiple states resulting in a two man race between Romney and Paul for 564 delegates! This almost ruins both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich’s chances of collecting enough delegates to win.
11. The Revolution is growing at a very high rate compared to 2008. When plotted in excel or Matlab to run a simulation these rate and rate increases are almost expediential – meaning once the second American Revolution starts it cannot be stopped :) :)
a. Iowa
2008: 11,841 votes
2012: 26,219 votes
2.2x total votes
New Hampshire
2008: 18,308 votes
2012: 56,872 votes
3.1x total votes
South Carolina
2008: 16,155 votes
2012: 75,283 votes
4.7x total votes