Stop Being Negative. We Have Well Overperformed In The First Three States.

[1836]

..

[Danjlion7]

I've always enjoyed your posts.

[Working Poor]

thanks for the positive energy

[wowrevolution]

There are still 47 States to go. We need to focus on all the states that are fighting for legalizing marijuana, we need to also focus on building up our bases in California, Texas, Nevada, Colorado, Michigan. At this point, we can not show any weakness. I believe strongly that we can win Kentucky & Indiana.

[FSP-Rebel]

We have well outperformed expectations and where our "ceiling" supposedly was in all three early states. In South Carolina today, we performed far better than we polled even just a couple of weeks ago.

Ron Paul has a very real chance of scraping together the delegates to win. I put together a fairly detailed thread showing how it is possible months ago. (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?330516-How-Ron-Paul-Wins-the-Nomination-(full-nomination-schedule-delegate-s-and-analysis))

In that thread, I postulated that our best shot at winning was a three way race. It is happening better than we could have ever planned. For now, it is even better: Rick Santorum seems just arrogant enough to hang around long enough to ensure we win caucus states we need to win.

And really, that is the test. We need to win at least 5 states to be nominated, and that begins by winning several of the following: Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Washington, Minnesota...

And we can.

So for all you negative nancies out there, we did pretty damn well in South Carolina, got 75,000 votes, got endorsed by important state senators, and we are in just as good of a position to win as we were the night of the New Hampshire primary.
>Newbitech, Mr. dim.

[RickyJ]

We have well outperformed expectations and where our "ceiling" supposedly was in all three early states. In South Carolina today, we performed far better than we polled even just a couple of weeks ago.

Ron Paul has a very real chance of scraping together the delegates to win. I put together a fairly detailed thread showing how it is possible months ago. (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?330516-How-Ron-Paul-Wins-the-Nomination-(full-nomination-schedule-delegate-s-and-analysis))

In that thread, I postulated that our best shot at winning was a three way race. It is happening better than we could have ever planned. For now, it is even better: Rick Santorum seems just arrogant enough to hang around long enough to ensure we win caucus states we need to win.

And really, that is the test. We need to win at least 5 states to be nominated, and that begins by winning several of the following: Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Washington, Minnesota...

And we can.

So for all you negative nancies out there, we did pretty damn well in South Carolina, got 75,000 votes, got endorsed by important state senators, and we are in just as good of a position to win as we were the night of the New Hampshire primary.

Ah, you are wrong. This was very bad news tonight. Spinning it any other way is denying reality. Don't get me wrong, I will support and campaign for Paul till the end, but I am realistic about his chances of winning be very low right now.

[Aratus]

also don't forget the territories and puerto rico

[Dartht33bagger]

Ah, you are wrong. This was very bad news tonight. Spinning it any other way is denying reality. Don't get me wrong, I will support and campaign for Paul till the end, but I am realistic about his chances of winning be very low right now.

We weren't planning on winning in SC anyways. As much as I was hoping for a third place victory, fourth is not bad when we didn't expect to surge in this state.

[TheTexan]

We weren't planning on winning in SC anyways.

This is true, and the upside to this is Romney's "early state victories = nomination" narrative is broken.

The downside I think, not to be a negative nancy, is that if Gingrich can win a state by such a margin that says a lot about the electorate we're trying to win over. I also understand though that he got a $5 million PAC to win SC for him though... so maybe it's not so bad.

[georgiaboy]

great post, OP.

There is a greater plan at work here, and we got what we needed out of SC to continue to execute to plan.

We have the best message, the best activist network, the best managed campaign, and our numbers keep increasing, despite the many obstacles we have and will continue to face.

[affa]

Ah, you are wrong. This was very bad news tonight. Spinning it any other way is denying reality. Don't get me wrong, I will support and campaign for Paul till the end, but I am realistic about his chances of winning be very low right now.

It's bad news in relation to us winning, sure, but we never expected to win. We never expected to take second. We held hope for third.

To put this in perspective... Gingrich came in 5th in the last primary held. 5th! And now he's the new 'front runner'.

This is far from over.

[parocks]

Ah, you are wrong. This was very bad news tonight. Spinning it any other way is denying reality. Don't get me wrong, I will support and campaign for Paul till the end, but I am realistic about his chances of winning be very low right now.

No, not really. South Carolina and Florida are not our states. If the caucus states look like South Carolina, then it's time to worry.

[3kgt]

I think of it as...78,000 people voted for him.
78,000 people that voted for liberty.
we all know there's no going back when you wake up to the concept...
today just like Iowa and NH was a victory...Ron Paul has already won...

[TheTexan]

Not to mention we're still going up in national polls - you might even say we're surging nationally :)

[JasonM]

No, not really. South Carolina and Florida are not our states. If the caucus states look like South Carolina, then it's time to worry.

No, the time to worry is if the 2-man race (Newt/Romney) ends on Super Tuesday with one or the other winning by a huge margin, and the "loser" of this two man race drops out. If this worries, then our "brokered convention" strategy to win the nomination is shot to pieces. Because then the "last man standing" will just trounce us state after state until he hits the magic number of delegates he needs to win.

[parocks]

We have well outperformed expectations and where our "ceiling" supposedly was in all three early states. In South Carolina today, we performed far better than we polled even just a couple of weeks ago.

Ron Paul has a very real chance of scraping together the delegates to win. I put together a fairly detailed thread showing how it is possible months ago. (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?330516-How-Ron-Paul-Wins-the-Nomination-(full-nomination-schedule-delegate-s-and-analysis))

In that thread, I postulated that our best shot at winning was a three way race. It is happening better than we could have ever planned. For now, it is even better: Rick Santorum seems just arrogant enough to hang around long enough to ensure we win caucus states we need to win.

And really, that is the test. We need to win at least 5 states to be nominated, and that begins by winning several of the following: Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Washington, Minnesota...

And we can.

So for all you negative nancies out there, we did pretty damn well in South Carolina, got 75,000 votes, got endorsed by important state senators, and we are in just as good of a position to win as we were the night of the New Hampshire primary.

I'm in Maine. I have a little bit of feel for that. Was at a meetup for my county. My question to anybody is - do we get the phone from home data? If I'm in charge of my town (and I don't want to be, because pa in parocks stands for Pennsylvania, and I really am not a well known person in my town), can I get that data for phone from home, so I personally don't have to do the exact same work as the official campaign, IDing voters? Or is duplication of effort really essential.

Here is where superbrochure really really screws up. It could be helpful. I'm in a situation where, if I'm in charge of town X, finding supporters and training them to caucus is what I'm supposed to do. What do I have to that with? Who is helping me do this?

1) The official campaign is doing phone from home. If they're killing it, they should have the data for my town. Will I get that data? Will I ever know who the official campaign has identified? How are they going to be trained if I don't know who they are? They want us to make calls, but that's duplicating effort.

2) Superbrochure. 55 cents for every "supervoter". Let's say that there is a town with 150 supervoters. Costs a little over $80 to get them in their mailboxes.

How does that help me at all? What I want is to identify Ron Paul voters and to turn them out to caucus for Ron Paul. They also should be trained in the delegate process if possible. $80 was spent to tell 150 voters about Ron Paul. I need to ID and train these people.

What should happen is the superbrochure people should mail me the superbrochures, stick em in a legal size envelope, with $60. The $60 will pay for gas, and it provides a financial incentive to go door to door, IDing voters. The supervoters get the brochure, and the person in the town gets the data for the voter, ID's them. It would be better if the superbrochure didn't suck, but its main purpose is (could, should be) to pay people to go door to door. If there was something on the brochure that directed people to where they should be directed, that would be great, but there isn't anything like that at all. What we want is their data. And there's nothing on that brochure that sends people to a place where they can give data that I can get. It seems like the plan is to send people door to door with nothing, no lists, nothing, or to duplicate phone calls that phone from home is doing.

It's possible there's a more tight system that I just wasn't told about.

[ONUV]

Stop pointing fingers. Stop blaming others. We haven't won a primary because we haven't done enough. If you have the burning desire to win, don't depend on somebody else to do the legwork. Take responsibility yourself. Ron Paul's message is about taking responsibility for yourself and not blaming others. We win on the ground, not through the media. Time to speak up.

[parocks]

No, the time to worry is if the 2-man race (Newt/Romney) ends on Super Tuesday with one or the other winning by a huge margin, and the "loser" of this two man race drops out. If this worries, then our "brokered convention" strategy to win the nomination is shot to pieces. Because then the "last man standing" will just trounce us state after state until he hits the magic number of delegates he needs to win.

Many of us were hoping for a Romney vs Paul head to head just a week ago. Isn't your scenario just pushing back the Paul vs Romney until after Super Tuesday?

[1836]

Parocks, call the Maine headquarters.

[jtbraine]

Su,,m,,m

[anewvoice]

Ah, you are wrong. This was very bad news tonight. Spinning it any other way is denying reality. Don't get me wrong, I will support and campaign for Paul till the end, but I am realistic about his chances of winning be very low right now.

No he's not, SC was never in play. The campaign put some effort into ads but little else, it's not a stronghold for liberty to be sure. Much like not going after FL, all the negative nancies will be out crying over how we didn't get FL. Look to the West, that's where we're marking our stand.

[Justinfrom1776]

Someone get Maine on the phone.

[anewvoice]

bump

[ATXRevolutionary]

Thank you for this post, 1836. I just read through your entire post about Ron Paul's path to the nomination (the one you linked) and it was quite enlightening. I'm more excited about his chances now than ever before. I'm going to try and be a delegate when the time comes in Texas.

[1836]

Thank you for this post, 1836. I just read through your entire post about Ron Paul's path to the nomination (the one you linked) and it was quite enlightening. I'm more excited about his chances now than ever before. I'm going to try and be a delegate when the time comes in Texas.

Fantastic ATX! I assume you are in Austin. Let me suggest you contact (and anyone else reading this in Travis County) your Meetup group there for some further help in how to get to the county and then state convention; as well, you have a number of folks there who are very experienced in the liberty movement at the state GOP level such as Don Zimmerman and Robert McDonald.

You have no shortage of great liberty organizers there in Austin who can help you through the convention process.

[JohnM]

And for the record, here are the statistics.

Iowa: 2008 - 9.9%. 2012 - 21.4%.

New Hampshire: 2008 - 7.8%. 2012 - 22.9%.

South Carolina: 2008 - 3.6%. 2012 - 13.0%.


Dr Paul's share of the vote was more than doubled in Iowa, almost tripled in New Hampshire, and in South Carolina was over 3.6 times what it was last time.

Sure, I would have liked him to win, but we need to be realistic.

[bobbyw24]

Stay positive, guys, we got this victory wrapped up!

[deputydon]

How do you become a delegate? Specifically for Ohio (Which apparently Santorum isn't going to be on the ballot in three districts).

[Steve-in-NY]

So thats a 12% average gain over 2008 so far.