So can Paul win the Gop Nomination? I dont underatand this process?

[CplKoontz]

Ok so Santorum won IA
Mitt Won NH
Newt won SC

Ok so now onto Florida, and Ron isnt planning on even campaigning in FLA. and I understand why, because of the way the State works and the expenses, and chances of winning. I also understand that we did well here in my state (SC) even though we didnt plan on it..

I keep hearing that the campaign planned on this, etc... they have a plan..

Somehow I am not understanding it. We got Delegate from IA, I know this... and we can still get more delegates, and even possibly win a state or two (Montana, Idaho, SD)....

But how can Ron Win the GOP nomination? I dont understand???Can anyone explain this to a Noob!?

[ssjevot]

He has to get enough delegates (at least half) or a large enough amount to get the other behind him (a plurality). We've still got 98% of the delegates out there so it isn't time to freak out yet. If he doesn't do well in the upcoming caucuses after Florida then it is time to start freaking out and hoping for a 3rd party run.

[hueylong]

Even after Florida, only 5% of the delegates will have been selected. And they're split 4 ways.

This is a 50 state race. Ron Paul will win delegates in virtually every state after Florida.

[Gary4Liberty]

mathematically yes he could win if he gets more delegates than the others. If romney drops out (not going to happen) and there are some states where newt cant be on the ballot but Ron can and he could win some big winnner take all states and santorum drops out. Not likely though considering the blackout and the simple fact that america is too dumbed down to handle a constitutional government and citizenship is basically non existent because americans are basically bottle fed at the moment. But with time that could change. I was thinking if there could be some kind of online class on the constitution taht citizens could take and get a certifcation of achievement. It could teach the participants about the basics of america and the constitution. Or maybe there could be classes that we could teach in our homes having meetings and inviting people using an official manual from the Ron Paul Institute for Liberty or something.

That could be powerful. Grassroots education classes in small groups in homes. I dont know. I see it as a barrier though that people are dumbed down and brainwashed by the media. There needs to be some kind of deprogramming effort going on. otherwise it could take years for people to wake up in large enough numbers to win and sustain a real america.

lets face it we are running out of time for two reasons. 1. Can america withstand another 4 years of obama and more socialism transformation being absorbed into the borg? and 2. I know ron paul can kick all of our asses in a bicycle race for 20 miles in high heat and humidity but we only have just so many telomeres regardless of working out and suupplementation and genetics. I mean I would vote for hiim on his 100th birthday but there is a limit some point.

[The Gold Standard]

There are two scenarios for Ron to get the nomination.

1. Ron wins 1,144 delegates and clinches the nomination. He would have to start winning some states soon and then explode.

2. He gets close to the nomination, like at least 800-900 delegates and has a high enough percentage in polls that the party knows they have no chance of winning the election if Paul isn't the nominee.

Any other scenario just ends up in a Romney/Gingrich or Gingrich/Romney ticket and Ron gets a speech at the convention in hopes that his supporters will vote for the ticket, which they won't.

[Paul4Prez]

You need 1,144 delegates to win the nomination. According to CNN, the totals right now are:

Romney 31
Gingrich 26
Paul 10
Santorum 8

So Romney has 2.7 percent of the delegates needed to win.
Gingrich has 2.3 percent of the delegates needed to win.

Don't let the media cause you undue dismay. This race has barely started.

[hueylong]

Both Romney and Gingrich know they can't win without Ron Paul AND his supporters.

[CplKoontz]

ok I am understanding it a little better now......

I hope we can get some delegates:) AND WIN THIS THING!

[CplKoontz]

You need 1,144 delegates to win the nomination. According to CNN, the totals right now are:

Romney 31
Gingrich 26
Paul 10
Santorum 8

So Romney has 2.7 percent of the delegates needed to win.
Gingrich has 2.3 percent of the delegates needed to win.

Don't let the media cause you undue dismay. This race has barely started.

Ok thanks... the media wasnt causing it, I just dont understand it.....

So really we arent in that bad of shape? What about SC? Will be get any delegates from SC?

[Gary4Liberty]

so the loser must concede his delegates or the winner cant run in the general?

[dbill27]

If no candidate gets the required amount of delegates needed then there is a 2nd vote. In the 1st vote delegates have to vote for the candidate they have been pledged to support, in the 2nd vote they can vote for anyone. Becoming Mitt Romney and Newt gingrich's delegates is how we win.

[justinjj]

If Ron's #1 issue with voters is electibility, and he continues to lose, then why do some of you think that he's just going to start winning states in the middle of the primary?

It seems absurd to me that the strategy is not to win any states and hopefully pick up a few delegates here and there. The more he loses in these early states then the fewer votes and delegates he's going to get in the later states.

[MsDoodahs]

Both Romney and Gingrich know they can't win without Ron Paul AND his supporters.

The GOP rank and file need to understand this. It's being kept from them by the MSM that they count on (sad as that is).

[Gary4Liberty]

If Ron's #1 issue with voters is electibility, and he continues to lose, then why do some of you think that he's just going to start winning states in the middle of the primary? partly because of the same reason why some people say that elvis is still alive and partly because the demographic of states varies from state to state and there is more support in some states than others.

[Gary4Liberty]

Both Romney and Gingrich know they can't win without Ron Paul AND his supporters.

you mean they cant win the general without RP and support?

[parocks]

He has to get enough delegates (at least half) or a large enough amount to get the other behind him (a plurality). We've still got 98% of the delegates out there so it isn't time to freak out yet. If he doesn't do well in the upcoming caucuses after Florida then it is time to start freaking out and hoping for a 3rd party run.

Or, if, at some point, it comes to that we did not win, to accept that, to recognize that. We're a long way away, and we're pretty much on the right track. But Ron Paul has said, over and over, that he isn't running 3rd party. At some point, Romney could really screw up, or the caucus victories could lead to momentum, or Romney and Gingrich could bloody themselves so much. Who knows? Head to heads against Romney a week or 2 ago looked really bad for Ron Paul. Now with a Gingrich win we're farther away from a head to head with Romney. I'd prefer Santorum and not Gingrich up there at the top.

[Badger Paul]

Keep in mind those delegate totals will change constantly if they include endorsements from super delegates. Just because you endorse somebody one day doesn't mean they stay endorsed. Any stampede to Romney has been halted.

[hb6102]

3 races down out of 56 contest.

Let Mitt and Newt destroy each other in Florida. Let Frothy spend his last dime there.

Meanwhile we work on Nevada, Maine, Minnesota (what are the odds we can get Bachmann on board there), Colorado, Missouri.

Can we get a measly 200 people to show up in Puerto Rico

Have we polled Virginia yet?

Lest we forget the two 800lb elephant states that nobody is really thinking about yet? California 172 and Texas 155?

We need 1144 to win, not counting the unpledged RNC superdelgates and assuming Iowa is a 3-way split, Romney has 14, Newt 25, Ron 10, Frothy 8. Why all the panic??

For those of you that still have tvs.... cancel your cable, turn of the MSM, take that money and send it the campaign. I'll be taking my cablebox back to Time Warner as soon as I get a chance.

[tbone717]

To touch on what we might be able to expect in the next few weeks, I will share my observations and speculation.

The campaign is skipping FL, and they are making it known they are skipping FL so that they can claim rightfully so that they have no expectations for the state. The are doing so because FL is a 25 delegate "winner take all" state. So unless you win (which would be extremely costly to do so) you go home empty handed. So the decision is, do they spend millions in FL for a chance at winning a relatively small amount of delegates or do they move on to the next phase of states. They are moving on and saving the cash. Smart move for them. This is essentially what they did in SC, but didn't "skip" the state per se, since there is so much media attention on SC being it is the "first in the South" primary.

So I wouldn't expect to hear much about Paul in the national media for the next 10 days or so, as all attention will be focused on FL. However, that doesn't mean the campaign is asleep - they are focusing right now on the four caucus states that follow (NV, CO, ME & MN). They have already announces ad buys in NV & MN, and have a "boots on the ground" program set up for ME and are soliciting for volunteers. I have not seen anything yet on work in CO, but I am sure that we will shortly.

The plan here is to win some of these caucus states. Four of course would be ideal, but personally I think two or more should get us right back into the main narrative of the race. It is likely Santorum will be gone by then. So we will have Romney (who is fairly well organized in the caucus states) and Newt (who is not organized at all). In all likelihood we could see results that show Newt (who may be at that point the national frontrunner) coming in a distant third place in all four caucuses, thus derailing his campaign. Paul then emerges as the true alternative to Romney (what we have wanted all along) and then we move into two primary states (MI & AZ) followed by Super Tuesday. It is highly possible that going into Super Tuesday we could be tied for or in the lead as far as delegates.

If this plays out the way I described, by the end of February we could be looking at an entirely different race, with Paul as the national frontrunner and leading with delegates.

[parocks]

you mean they cant win the general without RP and support?


We understand, and trumpet, that the Republican nominee can't win without Ron Paul.

Can Ron Paul win without Social Conservatives? Can Ron Paul win without Hawks?

It goes both ways.

But somehow, Rick Santorum's supporters don't say "No One But Rick", and doesn't say that Republican Nominee cannot win the general without Socon support. It's entirely true of course. No, that's only what we do. And Republicans, who typically are team players, don't like it.

[CplKoontz]

If this plays out the way I described, by the end of February we could be looking at an entirely different race, with Paul as the national frontrunner and leading with delegates.

Damn! That would be AWESOME!!!!!!!

[CplKoontz]

We understand, and trumpet, that the Republican nominee can't win without Ron Paul.

Can Ron Paul win without Social Conservatives? Can Ron Paul win without Hawks?

It goes both ways.

But somehow, Rick Santorum's supporters don't say "No One But Rick", and doesn't say that Republican Nominee cannot win the general without Socon support. It's entirely true of course. No, that's only what we do. And Republicans, who typically are team players, don't like it.


I am a Social Conservative:) and I support Paul......

[newbitech]

Even after Florida, only 5% of the delegates will have been selected. And they're split 4 ways.

This is a 50 state race. Ron Paul will win delegates in virtually every state after Florida.

source.. :mad:

You really shouldn't be spreading hopium like this. virtually every state.. No. do you know what the break down for delegates are between WTA-types vs Proportional-types states? It's almost 50/50.

He has to win AT LEAST 1 winner take all state. IF he only wins 1 winner take all state, that means he has to win a huge majority of all proportional-type states. Splits like N.H. and Iowa means he has to win states like S.C. and FL.

[parocks]

To touch on what we might be able to expect in the next few weeks, I will share my observations and speculation.

The campaign is skipping FL, and they are making it known they are skipping FL so that they can claim rightfully so that they have no expectations for the state. The are doing so because FL is a 25 delegate "winner take all" state. So unless you win (which would be extremely costly to do so) you go home empty handed. So the decision is, do they spend millions in FL for a chance at winning a relatively small amount of delegates or do they move on to the next phase of states. They are moving on and saving the cash. Smart move for them. This is essentially what they did in SC, but didn't "skip" the state per se, since there is so much media attention on SC being it is the "first in the South" primary.

So I wouldn't expect to hear much about Paul in the national media for the next 10 days or so, as all attention will be focused on FL. However, that doesn't mean the campaign is asleep - they are focusing right now on the four caucus states that follow (NV, CO, ME & MN). They have already announces ad buys in NV & MN, and have a "boots on the ground" program set up for ME and are soliciting for volunteers. I have not seen anything yet on work in CO, but I am sure that we will shortly.

The plan here is to win some of these caucus states. Four of course would be ideal, but personally I think two or more should get us right back into the main narrative of the race. It is likely Santorum will be gone by then. So we will have Romney (who is fairly well organized in the caucus states) and Newt (who is not organized at all). In all likelihood we could see results that show Newt (who may be at that point the national frontrunner) coming in a distant third place in all four caucuses, thus derailing his campaign. Paul then emerges as the true alternative to Romney (what we have wanted all along) and then we move into two primary states (MI & AZ) followed by Super Tuesday. It is highly possible that going into Super Tuesday we could be tied for or in the lead as far as delegates.

If this plays out the way I described, by the end of February we could be looking at an entirely different race, with Paul as the national frontrunner and leading with delegates.

It's almost certain that Paul will look better after the caucus states and Gingrich will look worse after the caucus states. I'm in Maine.

Does anyone know how easy it is to contact the official campaign relatively high up for a local answer? Maybe Collins knows the answer to my question?

Phone From Home does Voter ID. They might do some GOTV calls, but it's mostly voter ID. Do locals get the data that the phone from home people are getting?