What states can Paul win, realistically?

[realtonygoodwin]

I would like to see polling showing Paul can win in any of the upcoming states.

Thanks!

[flynn]

He is not going to win any state...until he changes his delivery and message to be more specific and does more events...He literally should be in flight to FL by the morning....if he is not and is going back to TX...WTF???

Florida is a winner takes all state with 50 delegates and also one of the most expensive to advertise in. The game is about delegates and not to spend most of the money to win a single state. Ron Paul is in it for the long haul, Newt and Santorum aren't even in the ballots in some of the states.

[tsai3904]

Washington. We lost the caucus in 08 by 3% and we are a lot more organized this year.

[bluesc]

If the campaign is smart, they will only make token stops in Florida. I'd say he has a 100% chance of winning one of the caucus states between now and Super Tuesday. Probably more. Most of those states haven't been polled in a while.

P.s. He most likely already won Iowa in delegate counts.

[ronpaulitician]

data (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?354063-Ron-Paul-primary-caucus-results-2008-vs-2012)
States where Paul received more than 10% of the votes in 2008.

Pennsylvania (16%)
Oregon (15%)
Idaho (24%)
New Mexico (14%)
South Dakota (17%)
Kansas (11%)
North Dakota (21%)
Montana (25%)
Minnesota (16%)
Alaska (17%)
Maine (18%)
Nevada (14%)

[69360]

Slight possibility of a caucus state or two.

[angelatc]

THey're not competing in FL. It's a waste of time and money. I agree with that decision. But if he can't win a single primary, it's going to be really hard to keep people motivated.

Nevada, Louisiana, Minnesota - I think that he could win there if the campaign does its job. If they can pull that off, then New York and California could be in play as well.

But if he's just in it to collect delegates and get a speaking gig at the convention, then he ought to be straight up about that with the people he's asking to fund the project.

[Tyler_Durden]

P.s. He most likely already won Iowa in delegate counts.

I concur ;)

[Oddone]

The campaign looked forward to focus on Nevada, Minnesota, Louisiana, Maine, Colorado, Puerto Rico etc. We knew we could not take South Carolina or Florida. Heck we are the only campaign going for US Territories. Example, Puerto Rico in 2008 only had 208 votes at their caucuse which will give whoever wins 23 delegates. We have a group there now that is focusing on taking those votes, thats 23 delegates and so few people vote. Compare that to SC who will award 25 delegates today and will have hundreds of thousands vote.

(I guess I might as well copy paste this around lol)

[The Gold Standard]

It depends how much money he has to run ads in those states. He will get zero positive media, so advertising is critical.

[Indy Vidual]

Washington. We lost the caucus in 08 by 3% and we are a lot more organized this year.

Washington
Maybe Nevada
Ca, Several other Western States (ie Montana, Idaho, ect)
Arizona ?
Louisiana
......more?

[69360]

THey're not competing in FL. It's a waste of time and money. I agree with that decision. But if he can't win a single primary, it's going to be really hard to keep people motivated.

Nevada, Louisiana, Minnesota - I think that he could win there if the campaign does its job. If they can pull that off, then New York and California could be in play as well.

But if he's just in it to collect delegates and get a speaking gig at the convention, then he ought to be straight up about that with the people he's asking to fund the project.

I unfortunately agree. I don't want to fund a convention speech that nobody cares about or a platform plank nobody follows.

I'd rather see the money spent on a 3rd party run to possibly start a viable alternative in this country. I've always been GOP, but I am rather disgusted with them anymore.

[braane]

The campaign is really going to have to go for it all in Nevada, I would think. That's really all they have got. If they are serious about winning(which I have no reason to believe they aren't)... they are just going to have to pump all of their cash in and hope. If they win, then the funding will be there going forward and immediately following.

[bobbyw24]

But if he's just in it to collect delegates and get a speaking gig at the convention, then he ought to be straight up about that with the people he's asking to fund the project.

That would be nice.

Who needs states when you got delegates;)

[seawolf]

February will be the key Month...we have to dramatically improve and WIN in order to have Momentum going into Super Tuesday March 6th....

If we don't you can already see the PANIC beginning to happen on the RP Forums tonight....it will only get much worse!!!

Plus, just look at Donations in the next week on the Ron Paul Daily Donation Tracker......I will be watching if we can top $100,000 on any one day in the next seven......if not then the RP Nation is in my opinion starting to hesitate, maybe begin to melt away or flat out give up!!!

I certainly hope not, but I am very worried after tonight and reading the threads.

[sailingaway]

The last poll I saw of South Dakota, Ron was leading. Others have mentioned some of his other strong ones. The thing is the states before play into it. But so far Ron has at least doubled - or tripled - his 2008 turn out. He was second in Nevada last time, and I don't see Romney losing that, but depending on the games played in Louisiana, he may win that. There are those who argue he really won last time, but I wasn't around until after that. He truly DID win Nevada, though, by delegates, the party just fled the state convention when all the votes started going his way and appointed delegates by conference call. The RNC said they were 'inept' and it is why Sue Lowden lost in 2010, but it didn't get Ron's delegates back.

Here's the thing, Iowa was a real disappointment BECAUSE it was a while after that until you get to the states Ron can outright win rather than pick up delegates. But with the change in rules for proportionate delegates, it isn't near decided for Ron. Others need wins earlier or they won't have funds to move on.

[sailingaway]

THey're not competing in FL. It's a waste of time and money. I agree with that decision. But if he can't win a single primary, it's going to be really hard to keep people motivated.

Nevada, Louisiana, Minnesota - I think that he could win there if the campaign does its job. If they can pull that off, then New York and California could be in play as well.

But if he's just in it to collect delegates and get a speaking gig at the convention, then he ought to be straight up about that with the people he's asking to fund the project.

I think they are playing to win and are depending on enthusiasm lasting until they get to his better states. Iowa was a blow, once it was close. But it isn't near over yet. Louisiana and Washington become important.

[Joseph]

Honestly Nevada February 4th. Minnesota and Colorado are on the 7th and they are possibilities. Washington is March 3rd and I'd say maybe there (although probably less chance then in Nevada) March 6th is Super Tuesday and if we get momentum from winning the above states we could get many of those, but our best shots are Idaho and Ohio and maybe North Dakota with the right circumstances. After that Louisiana is March 24th and we could do very well there. Texas is April 3rd and we might win Texas. April 24th is New York and Pennsylvania and we might pull New York if we have a lot of momentum by then and we could get Pennsylvania if Santorum is out by then. May 8th is North Carolina, I think we have a chance their. May 22 is Kentucky and thanks to Rand Paul we have a pretty good shot their as well. June 5th is California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota which we actually have a shot of winning all 5. The last state is Utah June 26th which we most likely won't win. These are really the only states I see us as having a shot at winning, we'd need a miracle and with the right momentum we could pick up a few more here or there but it really comes down to us. if we focus on these states and make sure we win them, then the momentum will carry through to the following states and we might just be able to pick up enough to delegates to win the nomination at the convention.

[Travlyr]

For starters, Iowa. If you look at the Iowa delegates, Ron Paul can win the majority of Iowa delegates.

[BrittanySligar]

We're NOT GOING TO WIN NEVADA! You people are living in a dream world. Romney got 40+% in 2008. take off the goddamn liberty googles! GET OFF THE INTERNET!

[thoughtomator]

If VA votes for the Massachusetts limousine liberal, I'll eat my shorts live on webcam.

[bluesc]

We're NOT GOING TO WIN NEVADA! You people are living in a dream world. take off the goddamn liberty googles. Romney got 40+% in 2008. WAKE UP. GET REAL. GET OFF THE FUCKING INTERNET!

Says the one going crazy over the internet.

As has already been said in another thread by someone close to the campaign.. We won't win the straw poll in Nevada, but will win the delegates, just like we did in Iowa.

[Brett85]

He probably has a slight chance to win Montana and Idaho.

[bobbyw24]

He probably has a slight chance to win Montana and Idaho.

Idaho rocks

[sailingaway]

The campaign is really going to have to go for it all in Nevada, I would think. That's really all they have got. If they are serious about winning(which I have no reason to believe they aren't)... they are just going to have to pump all of their cash in and hope. If they win, then the funding will be there going forward and immediately following.
Nevada is unlikely because of Romney. But Washington, Louisiana.... California is only realistic if Ron has had enough success by then. The ideology would be ok, but California isn't going to hate Romney and usually goes with someone they feel is a contender. He may get delegates from CA since those are proportional by district, but I think he'll need wins before then to take the state. The Orange County Register likes Ron, though.

[ronnilingus]

Shouldn't Ron Paul have a decent shot at Texas? I haven't heard anything about this yet. Texas is around 140 delegates, that could be huge for his campaign if he won.

[sailingaway]

He probably has a slight chance to win Montana and Idaho.

the mountain west is his wheel house.

[goldwater's ghost]

i think we have to win two out of three from maine, nevada and minnesota to have a chance. that would change the dynamic that paul isnt electable. if he comes in 2nd 3rd in those states, this will become about getting a pretty speech at the convention although i hope he decides to go third party

[realtonygoodwin]

Shouldn't Ron Paul have a decent shot at Texas? I haven't heard anything about this yet. Texas is around 140 delegates, that could be huge for his campaign if he won.

Last week he was polling in last place in Texas, I don't see him winning.

[alucard13mmfmj]

i hate to say this, but Ron Paul should skip Florida. it sounds crappy for grassroots in Florida, but it feels best to go that route. although, i hope Florida grassroots will keep educating people. it is not moot. in the long run, it will help.

[Oddone]

Shouldn't Ron Paul have a decent shot at Texas? I haven't heard anything about this yet. Texas is around 140 delegates, that could be huge for his campaign if he won.

Depending on who drops out, it could be a 2 or 3 man race by the time Texas comes around on April 3rd. Just so folks know, we control a lot of delegates and precient chairs in Texas. So at the very least we will have some power in a brokered convention. I live in Texas, our precient is all Ron Paul, 17 delegates and the chair.

[ronpaulhemp]

I think Nevada, North Dakota, California, Montana, Oregon and Washington (a lot of Western states) will definitely be Ron Paul's for the taking this time around.

[braane]

Nevada is unlikely because of Romney. But Washington, Louisiana.... California is only realistic if Ron has had enough success by then. The ideology would be ok, but California isn't going to hate Romney and usually goes with someone they feel is a contender. He may get delegates from CA since those are proportional by district, but I think he'll need wins before then to take the state. The Orange County Register likes Ron, though.

Actually, I was wrong. I am looking at the schedule... and there is 3 contests(and actually Missouri doesn't even count) just after Nevada on the 7th. So a strong second in Nevada should be plenty. Winning Washington would be fantastic. Colorado is Romney's in a big way. Getting 2nd there would be a positive.

[alucard13mmfmj]

if gingrich is out of control and bursting at the seams.. yall think RP and romney will team up even more so? then afterwards go at each other.

[Dartht33bagger]

I think Nevada, North Dakota, California, Montana, Oregon and Washington (a lot of Western states) will definitely be Ron Paul's for the taking this time around.

A lot of people I've met here really like Ron Paul and plan to vote for him.

[69360]

Shouldn't Ron Paul have a decent shot at Texas? I haven't heard anything about this yet. Texas is around 140 delegates, that could be huge for his campaign if he won.

No, the polling was horrific. Last place in a multi candidate race, not second or third choice and blown out badly in a 2 person race with Romney.

[tennman]

Paul was second to Cain in Tennessee. Maybe something could come from it if Santorum is out by then.

[nyrgoal99]

The campaign is really going to have to go for it all in Nevada, I would think. That's really all they have got. If they are serious about winning(which I have no reason to believe they aren't)... they are just going to have to pump all of their cash in and hope. If they win, then the funding will be there going forward and immediately following.

I dont think we are going to win NV, but with all the positioning, we may end up with most of the delegates.

[SaulPaulinsky]

The campaign looked forward to focus on Nevada, Minnesota, Louisiana, Maine, Colorado, Puerto Rico etc. We knew we could not take South Carolina or Florida. Heck we are the only campaign going for US Territories. Example, Puerto Rico in 2008 only had 208 votes at their caucuse which will give whoever wins 23 delegates. We have a group there now that is focusing on taking those votes, thats 23 delegates and so few people vote. Compare that to SC who will award 25 delegates today and will have hundreds of thousands vote.

(I guess I might as well copy paste this around lol)

I need to move to Puerto Rico. That's some voter power there!

[GunnyFreedom]

data (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?354063-Ron-Paul-primary-caucus-results-2008-vs-2012)
States where Paul received more than 10% of the votes in 2008.

Pennsylvania (16%)
Oregon (15%)
Idaho (24%)
New Mexico (14%)
South Dakota (17%)
Kansas (11%)
North Dakota (21%)
Montana (25%)
Minnesota (16%)
Alaska (17%)
Maine (18%)
Nevada (14%)
Don't forget Louisiana

[sailingaway]

No, the polling was horrific. Last place in a multi candidate race, not second or third choice and blown out badly in a 2 person race with Romney.

But he polled tied for first for a Senate seat there, earlier. And it is an open primary, whereas current polling tends to be GOP. And our people will work the caucuses. It depends on what happens between now and then.

[Sarge]

I am doing a repeat post. VA is being overlooked for a possible easier win.

Look close at the numbers. Mitt has big problems in VA if it goes like the last election.

Everyone needs to look at this for VA vote count for 2008,

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/VA-R.phtml

Need a simple, side by side, inexpensive ad comparison of Ron vs Mitt and flood VA with them. We can take VA and the 49 delegates. Not much time to come up with an ad and pass them out.

Look at Ron Paul and his numbers in 2008. This might be the quickest 49 delegates to grab.

You can bet Newt, if still in, has a big problem on who is he going to attack. Mitt or Ron. Does he have the money to attack both? I think Rick will be out by March.

Need to go for the older voters as well this time.

[nemt4paul]

Paul lost a close "closed caucus" in Montana last time around to Romney, however, the party has changed the rules back to an open primary (in my opinion due to the fact Ron did so well last time).

Ron did finish with 25% of the vote in the open primary in 08' though (they still ran the primary even though it didn't have any consequence), however, winning an open primary state is going to be difficult even in Montana. McCain won the primary in 2008.

[TheDriver]

I would like to see polling showing Paul can win in any of the upcoming states.

Thanks!

The fat lady is singing, isn't she?

[newbitech]

i hate to say this, but Ron Paul should skip Florida. it sounds crappy for grassroots in Florida, but it feels best to go that route. although, i hope Florida grassroots will keep educating people. it is not moot. in the long run, it will help.

just want to say, I am glad to see you here. For many of us, this IS the long run. 4-5 years is about all the politics I can stand in my life. Hate to be that way, but seriously, I am no Ron Paul.

[realtonygoodwin]

But he polled tied for first for a Senate seat there, earlier. And it is an open primary, whereas current polling tends to be GOP. And our people will work the caucuses. It depends on what happens between now and then.

That was last summer. PPP isn't polling just GOP, they have about 5% independents included I think.

[Indy Vidual]

just want to say, I am glad to see you here. For many of us, this IS the long run. 4-5 years is about all the politics I can stand in my life. Hate to be that way, but seriously, I am no Ron Paul.

+1
The Time to find freedom without politics is approaching?

[RonPaul101.com]

I'd go right to NV and ME to campaign. The sooner the better.

[bobburn]

Brittany, that was with a total turn out of less than 35k! Romney won with 22k votes! Ron Paul can VERY EASILY win Nevada if they get the vote out and focus on it.

[hueylong]

All these whining negative nellies are giving me the red *ss.

[libertybrewcity]

data (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?354063-Ron-Paul-primary-caucus-results-2008-vs-2012)
States where Paul received more than 10% of the votes in 2008.

Pennsylvania (16%)
Oregon (15%)
Idaho (24%)
New Mexico (14%)
South Dakota (17%)
Kansas (11%)
North Dakota (21%)
Montana (25%)
Minnesota (16%)
Alaska (17%)
Maine (18%)
Nevada (14%)

I'm assuming a lot of these have gone to proportional voting system as well. If RP can get at least 15 or 20% in these states, he can receive a sizable amount of delegates.

[opinionatedfool]

THey're not competing in FL. It's a waste of time and money. I agree with that decision. But if he can't win a single primary, it's going to be really hard to keep people motivated.

Nevada, Louisiana, Minnesota - I think that he could win there if the campaign does its job. If they can pull that off, then New York and California could be in play as well.

But if he's just in it to collect delegates and get a speaking gig at the convention, then he ought to be straight up about that with the people he's asking to fund the project.

The whole idea about a speaking gig at the convention is upsurd. He's traveling around the country getting heard by millions of people. Why the heck would he care about one more speech. The idea is completely ridiculous.

[Paul4Prez]

He can win all of the remaining states (well, maybe all except Florida) if everyone who likes him turns out to vote. Voter turnout in the primaries has been very low. John McCain won with 8 million votes last time. If Ron Paul's support is at 10-15 percent nationally, that would be easily 10 to 15 million votes. Unfortunately, most people don't vote in the primaries.

[RaptorNtc]

He won't win a single state if he doesn't address to the American people how he will protect America.

Right now, all the Republicans think he is insane with his foreign policy and will let terrorists roam free everywhere. A lot of Republicans love everything about him except his foreign policy. Until this misconception is fixed, don't count on winning any states.

[Travlyr]

The fat lady is singing, isn't she?
The third State primary and you are throwing in the towel? Do you understand that the GOP winner needs 1144 delegates to win? So far Newt is leading the delegates and he isn't even on the ballot in his home State! If you are waiting for the fat lady to sing... don't hold your breath. This nomination process is a long way from over.

[SaulPaulinsky]

Coming up soon, Paul can win NV, ME and MN. Then WA before Super Tuesday where ND, ID, AK, VA, VT that I can think of are in play.

After that, too early to say. Getting some of these wins would figure to cause a momentum shift that could change the math dramatically from what it is now.

[Shane Harris]

I will keep in mind any states Ron does exceptionally well in as potential places to move to after I graduate college.

[hueylong]

The process has just started. Get a grip on reality.

[presence]

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/PR-R

Puerto Rico

23 Delagates

[TheDriver]

The third State primary and you are throwing in the towel? Do you understand that the GOP winner needs 1144 delegates to win? So far Newt is leading the delegates and he isn't even on the ballot in his home State! If you are waiting for the fat lady to sing... don't hold your breath. This nomination process is a long way from over.

The race won't be decided with delegates--mark my words. We're going in the wrong direction (2nd, 3rd, 4th). I don't see any state we can win, and I don't see us picking up many supporters from the other candidates--due to principle stands taken by Ron that has cost us political capital. We can slug it out, and waste our money on a losing process, or we can get out of the way and focus on winnable races. I'm going with the latter, I'm afraid. If I see something that changes my mind, I reserve that right.

[hueylong]

Driver -- if you don't know the difference between "latter" and "ladder" -- I'm not really interested in any political analysis you care to lay on people.

[TheDriver]

Driver -- if you don't know the difference between "latter" and "ladder" -- I'm not really interested in any political analysis you care to lay on people. Give me a break a@@hole, I've already edited it.

[everlasticity]

But if he's just in it to collect delegates and get a speaking gig at the convention, then he ought to be straight up about that with the people he's asking to fund the project.

I agree. I think we should change the conversation to gaining enough support to ensure delegates, rather than looking for the win. That way we can all be honest with ourselves and what is going on here. Ron Paul supporters don't need to believe that Ron will win, we will vote for him and campaign for him no matter what. Being honest with ourselves is the best strategy to gain the support of others.

[seyferjm]

I will keep in mind any states Ron does exceptionally well in as potential places to move to after I graduate college.

Same here.

[69360]

The fat lady is singing, isn't she?

She's warming up backstage.



The race won't be decided with delegates--mark my words. We're going in the wrong direction (2nd, 3rd, 4th). I don't see any state we can win, and I don't see us picking up many supporters from the other candidates--due to principle stands taken by Ron that has cost us political capital. We can slug it out, and waste our money on a losing process, or we can get out of the way and focus on winnable races. I'm going with the latter, I'm afraid. If I see something that changes my mind, I reserve that right.

The problem with the delegate strategy is that after April 1st when it goes winner take all the polling numbers are really bad and no signs of them changing.

There's a slim chance left, but it's not likely Ron can win the GOP nomination barring some unforseen event. I'm still voting for him in the primary here no matter what, I stand on principle.

I wish he'd quit tomorrow and start a viable 3rd party movement in the country. I don't think he'd win that either but it could be a start to something good and worthwhile.

[TheDriver]

The problem with the delegate strategy is that after April 1st when it goes winner take all the polling numbers are really bad and no signs of them changing.

There's a slim chance left, but it's not likely Ron can win the GOP nomination barring some unforseen event. I'm still voting for him in the primary here no matter what, I stand on principle.

I wish he'd quit tomorrow and start a viable 3rd party movement in the country. I don't think he'd win that either but it could be a start to something good and worthwhile.

Great points!

[realtonygoodwin]

The race won't be decided with delegates--mark my words. We're going in the wrong direction (2nd, 3rd, 4th). I don't see any state we can win, and I don't see us picking up many supporters from the other candidates--due to principle stands taken by Ron that has cost us political capital. We can slug it out, and waste our money on a losing process, or we can get out of the way and focus on winnable races. I'm going with the latter, I'm afraid. If I see something that changes my mind, I reserve that right.

actually, he went 3, 2, 4

[virgil47]

THey're not competing in FL. It's a waste of time and money. I agree with that decision. But if he can't win a single primary, it's going to be really hard to keep people motivated.

Nevada, Louisiana, Minnesota - I think that he could win there if the campaign does its job. If they can pull that off, then New York and California could be in play as well.

But if he's just in it to collect delegates and get a speaking gig at the convention, then he ought to be straight up about that with the people he's asking to fund the project.

While I agree with most of your post I must disagree with the Florida part. The sad truth is not that he's not competing in Florida it is that he's not competitive in Florida. The reason being that neither he nor his campaign staff have bothered to formulate a method to attract the over 55 crowd. Unfortunately without this age demographic Ron Pauls chances of winning the Presidency are slim to none. And please no saying I'm anti Paul and such. I am a Committee Precinct Officer and will be a delegate for Ron at my county convention just as I was in 2008.

[GunnyFreedom]

He can win all of the remaining states (well, maybe all except Florida) if everyone who likes him turns out to vote. Voter turnout in the primaries has been very low. John McCain won with 8 million votes last time. If Ron Paul's support is at 10-15 percent nationally, that would be easily 10 to 15 million votes. Unfortunately, most people don't vote in the primaries.

you just explained the whole key

[Karsten]

data (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?354063-Ron-Paul-primary-caucus-results-2008-vs-2012)
States where Paul received more than 10% of the votes in 2008.

Pennsylvania (16%)
Oregon (15%)
Idaho (24%)
New Mexico (14%)
South Dakota (17%)
Kansas (11%)
North Dakota (21%)
Montana (25%)
Minnesota (16%)
Alaska (17%)
Maine (18%)
Nevada (14%)
What is it about the upper mountain states that makes it fertile Ron Paul territory?

[Karsten]

While I agree with most of your post I must disagree with the Florida part. The sad truth is not that he's not competing in Florida it is that he's not competitive in Florida. The reason being that neither he nor his campaign staff have bothered to formulate a method to attract the over 55 crowd. Unfortunately without this age demographic Ron Pauls chances of winning the Presidency are slim to none. And please no saying I'm anti Paul and such. I am a Committee Precinct Officer and will be a delegate for Ron at my county convention just as I was in 2008.

The internet enthusiasm took Ron Paul be surprise in 2007, I believe, and he's played to the young/libertarian crowd for the most part. That's fine for a general election, but not so much in the Republican primaries. Ron could have just as easily played for the hardcore conservative Goldwater older crowd, if he just used a little bit different rhetoric.

[libertybrewcity]

What is it about the upper mountain states that makes it fertile Ron Paul territory?


Small, rural, libertarian

[abstrusezincate]

Is there anyone out in Nevada who can say how things are going out there?

[ironj221]

Is there anyone out in Nevada who can say how things are going out there?

I live in Vegas....have seen ZERO political signs at all. Not even Ron Paul, nothing. I'm the only one with a sign. That being said, I don't go into neighborhoods much.

I used to live in Arizona and I would always see political signs on the side of roads back in '08. That isn't happening here that I can see.

[mello]

Ron Paul would have won in Louisiana in 2008 but got screwed over by shenanigans!!! Details below:

http://infowars.net/articles/january2008/250108Win.htm

[kpitcher]

I've been busy with sick family the last few days so haven't been able to keep up. BUT I do have a few simple questions.

Did Newt's 2nd wife interviews play out in the news already? All I've seen has been comments about Newt getting such a good response for him slamming CNN at the debate for even answering.

Are there any legs to the WSJ's questioning the legalility of Mitt's IRA?

If we could have other states crush Newt for his huge baggage, and Mitt imploding for illegal investments and tax rates that only hedge fund managers get, it could get even more interesting.

[thoughtomator]

This might get very interesting if the bound delegates are bound to vote to unbind themselves.

[eleganz]

I live in Vegas....have seen ZERO political signs at all. Not even Ron Paul, nothing. I'm the only one with a sign. That being said, I don't go into neighborhoods much.

I used to live in Arizona and I would always see political signs on the side of roads back in '08. That isn't happening here that I can see.

Need to focus on Nevada, we got a bunch of supporters coming from LA in the next week or so. Hope you're connected with and working with the campaign...they need all the help they can get!

I SHOULD be in Nevada about a week before the caucus.

[SurfsUp]

Texas has 155 delegates = THOSE ARE OURS!

California has 176!

[eleganz]

Texas has 155 delegates = THOSE ARE OURS!

California has 176!


Judging from the last TX poll, TX needs to get to work....

We can't rely on momentum to win...we need to actually work for it.


I hope everybody understands this.

[GraspingForPeace]

Texas has 155 delegates = THOSE ARE OURS!


Ehhh... not according to recent polls.

[muh_roads]

Montana, Idaho and Washington are very possible. The Montana GOP endorsed Paul from what I remember.

Nevada, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania may also be possible...

[eleganz]

Montana, Idaho and Washington are very possible. The Montana GOP endorsed Paul from what I remember.

Nevada, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania may also be possible...


Nevada we got 13% last go around, let's double and a half the support since we've been averaging AT LEAST double the support since Iowa.

That puts us at around 26-32%

Mitt Romney took 51%

GET TO WORK.

[dfalken]

Nevada is unlikely because of Romney. But Washington, Louisiana.... California is only realistic if Ron has had enough success by then. The ideology would be ok, but California isn't going to hate Romney and usually goes with someone they feel is a contender. He may get delegates from CA since those are proportional by district, but I think he'll need wins before then to take the state. The Orange County Register likes Ron, though.

I don't understand many of these delusions. In 08 with only 4 people left we came in last place with 4% in California...how is it one of those states we are supposed to win? Also somebody said we can win Texas...has anyone seen the polls? We are in last place in the low double digits if I remember correctly. North Dakota, Maine and some western states look like real possibilities but the heavily populated states seem pretty much impossible barring a miracle.

[libertarian4321]

Last week he was polling in last place in Texas, I don't see him winning.

That was when Perry was in the race.

Romney is about as cancer down here. Gingrich comes off as an arrogant know-it-all which also won't play well here.

I could see Ron winning Texas.

[SurfsUp]

ahhh Too many negative nancys on this forum. I often wonder why they are really here. hmm

Ron WON the L..A. STRAW POLL! THIS IS NOT 2008! We are doubling and even trippling our numbers now!

If people are going to say we are polling shitty then post your evidence of legit polls because as we all know, most polls are bullshit or not polling new pubs and or independents, young people, etc etc.

Texas is Rons state. i think he will win itl. Everyone I know in California wants Ron to win. Other than one mexican friend of mine.

That's a shitload of delegates.

[eleganz]

ahhh Too many negative nancys on this forum. I often wonder why they are really here. hmm

Ron WON the L..A. STRAW POLL! THIS IS NOT 2008! We are doubling and even trippling our numbers now!

If people are going to say we are polling shitty then post your evidence of legit polls because as we all know, most polls are bullshit or not polling new pubs and or independents, young people, etc etc.

Texas is Rons state. i think he will win itl. Everyone I know in California wants Ron to win. Other than one mexican friend of mine.

That's a shitload of delegates.


I'm one of those that don't think straw polls are relative to winning actual elections. Yes it is true we won the CA GOP straw poll but it is also true that those people only showed up to see Ron. Those same people that came for the straw poll aren't active when they SHOULD be active but we, in CA are working to change that. We are working for victory.


And we need as much help as possible, this is a huge state with a lot of voters so the reward is sweet. We need proper momentum and a lot of dedication. Do I think it is possible? YES. Is it difficult? EXTREMELY.

[newRonPaulfan]

Ron has no chance at winning any state.

He has my permission at least to go back to Texas and retire ,he's fought the good fight for liberty ,but apparently Americans don't want their liberty, they want government to spend their money, send their citizens off to war, and take their rights away, and then they just bitch out about it. Well, one day they will no longer be allowed to bitch and moan about how the government sucks, they'll just be arrested indefinitely like in China.

[goldpants]

Ron has no chance at winning any state.

He has my permission at least to go back to Texas and retire ,he's fought the good fight for liberty ,but apparently Americans don't want their liberty, they want government to spend their money, send their citizens off to war, and take their rights away, and then they just bitch out about it. Well, one day they will no longer be allowed to bitch and moan about how the government sucks, they'll just be arrested indefinitely like in China.

Chin up buckaroo, this process feels a whole lot better than 2008. Our opponents are seriously flawed, not sure anyone but Mitt can hang in there for the long haul. Let's see how the caucuses play out before we give up. Newt's win tonight was much better than one for Mitt.

[QWDC]

Ron has no chance at winning any state.

He has my permission at least to go back to Texas and retire ,he's fought the good fight for liberty ,but apparently Americans don't want their liberty, they want government to spend their money, send their citizens off to war, and take their rights away, and then they just bitch out about it. Well, one day they will no longer be allowed to bitch and moan about how the government sucks, they'll just be arrested indefinitely like in China.

It sucks but you can't ever stop fighting. If Ron would have quit trying in 1988, how many people would be staying at home or voting for Bush 3.0 in the upcoming election, knowing nothing of the liberty message? We dominate the youth now anyways, it's only a matter of time before those youth move up into the age blocks that actually vote. Over time we will see more and more congressmen like Rand Amash and Massie elected and move the national narrative toward a more libertarian flavor. Whether we can get Dr.Paul into the white house remains to be seen, but a liberty victory is definitely inevitable regardless of this elections outcome as long as people keep trying to grow the movement.

[sunghoko]

Paul will invest in caucuses in Nevada on Feb. 4; in Maine from Feb. 4 to 11; and in Colorado and Minnesota on Feb. 7.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71771.html

[dfalken]

That was when Perry was in the race.

Romney is about as cancer down here. Gingrich comes off as an arrogant know-it-all which also won't play well here.

I could see Ron winning Texas.

In the head to head poll with Romney, Romney got 75% of the vote or so. We need to stop being delusional and focus on the states we can win to try to generate momentum and delegates.

[Drex]

Nebraska got 13% ( 17k votes ) in 08.. but it was only against McCain.

[fatjohn]

Paul will invest in caucuses in Nevada on Feb. 4; in Maine from Feb. 4 to 11; and in Colorado and Minnesota on Feb. 7.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71771.html

Hopefully he wins at least half of those.

[Slobodan]

Just got back to Florida a few days ago and drove to the farmers market to get food on the way saw 30 Romney signs and only 1 Dr. Paul also last night watched 40 minutes TV saw 3 Romney ads. It's not looking good here for the primary Jan 31st.

The good news is I got my voter registration card and it says Republican and the date is December so I think I'm all set (I never voted in my life this is the first time). I have a pretty good email list in Tampa bay will tell people I'm voting for Dr. Paul and why hopefully that gets a few more votes but I think it's not looking good here, that will not stop me from voting for the right person, it's Dr. Paul or no voting, I never did the "lesser evil" thing in my life and will not start now (my boss tried to make me vote for a former communist in Slovenia saying it was a lesser evil and I had a hard time wiggling out of that one)! So I'm super proud this is my first vote will make a youtube video why I'm doing it and hopefully a few more people after Florida who see the video will ignore the media and vote for Dr. Paul and why it's important in the long run (this cause will go on, don't give up hope).

[Anti Federalist]

I would like to see polling showing Paul can win in any of the upcoming states.

Thanks!

Honest question.

The answer is: there is no polling data showing RP in the lead in any state, AFAIK.

There's more going on here than just a primary race however.

If that's your only metric for support, a primary win, then I suggest you bail out now.

[Diablesse]

Hello
Agree there ,like say my son ,we have to see the final goal, very hard when you see SC result