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View Full Version : Projection: Good News from South Carolina




RPit
01-21-2012, 07:52 PM
As we already know, the States we can't win, its best that someone who will at some point perhaps 'drop out' or contribute to the possibility of a brokered Convention win.

As far as I can tell from the map and the results.... (irrespective of what the media tells you as the delegate count)

Romney gets ZERO delegates from South Carolina.
Gringrich gets ALL 25 delegates.

This is based on the fact that the winner gets 11 delegates automatically (Gingrich), the rest are given to winners of each Congressional District, and as far as I can tell Gingrich will win ALL of the 6 (7?) Congressional Districts.

Which means from this State all of the delegates will go to Gingrich. In the case that Gingrich drops out at some later time, those delegates would be open, and the liklihood that there are Ron Paul supporters as delegates is there.

Which means Gingrich winning South Carolina, in terms of our overall goal with regards to delegates is very good news. In the event Gingrich drops out, or a brokered convention (likelihood increases with 3rd man in the race), we WILL get a share of those delegates. It is much better than someone like Romney getting any delegates and reach the magic number.

Of course doing better and winning is always better. But to lift-up some people, remember the game isn't over. Its all about the delegates at the end of it. We weren't even expecting to be campaigning in South Carolina until we saw a bump in the polls after NH, so it was a 'lost cause' before and it just turned out that way. No reason to get down.

Work HARD for the Caucus States! We are still very much in this, irrespective of what the media says or us 'not winning' any State yet. We might be doing very well in delegate counts, don't believe what media outlets site as delegate counts.

The longer this race drags on, the more people that make broker convention a possibility the better GIVEN that WE WILL NOT GIVE UP and will fill those delegate positions with all our grassroots effort.

This result essentially tells us that we could end up GAINING delegates from a State we had no hope of getting anything from. The victory by Gingrich WAS A GAIN for US!!!

wgadget
01-21-2012, 07:53 PM
For some odd reason, this chart shows Swingrich getting only 17 delegates.

http://www.cbsnews.com/primary-election-results-2012/state.shtml?state=SC

Oddone
01-21-2012, 07:55 PM
We knew this going in that a Gingrich win could be good. But don't tell that to some of the people here on the forums. Same people who keep screaming doom and gloom are out trying to bring everyones morale down.

Oddone
01-21-2012, 07:56 PM
For some odd reason, this chart shows Swingrich getting only 17 delegates.

http://www.cbsnews.com/primary-election-results-2012/state.shtml?state=SC

Thats because all the districts aren't in yet. He has 19 right now actually.

rb3b3
01-21-2012, 07:58 PM
Thank you for this thread!! Im ron paul for life!! We have to all stick together until the end of this election!! This thread has brought my spirits up again thank you!

Indy Vidual
01-21-2012, 07:58 PM
We knew this going in that a Gingrich win could be good....

+1

tennman
01-21-2012, 07:59 PM
This is nice and all but we've got to start winning. That's just all there's is to it. Not much you can do to paint over the turd of finishing last.

sailingaway
01-21-2012, 08:00 PM
For some odd reason, this chart shows Swingrich getting only 17 delegates.

http://www.cbsnews.com/primary-election-results-2012/state.shtml?state=SC

they are all estimates. But if Ron doesn't get any officially, do we even have people in there to pick them up? If so, terrific.

Created4
01-21-2012, 08:01 PM
The biggest disappointment of the campaign so far was Iowa, and certainly SC did not change that. And we were very competitive in Iowa. Santorum's delegates from there have to go somewhere, and so there is still a chance to come out of Iowa positively.

Campaigning hard in the caucus states is now crucial. It will be just as difficult as Iowa was, maybe more so. But it is our best chance. So what happened tonight is really insignificant. It seems worse only because Perry dropped out and so we end up "last." But we did much better than expected here, where 72% of the voters are over the age of 45.

sailingaway
01-21-2012, 08:02 PM
This is nice and all but we've got to start winning. That's just all there's is to it. Not much you can do to paint over the turd of finishing last.

technically, except for the math of delegates, we only need to OUTRIGHT win 5 states out of 50 plus territories. South Dakota I know Ron is leading in, and mostly they haven't polled yet up there. The problem is some UP THERE don't know Ron's long game and need to hold out for it.

wgadget
01-21-2012, 08:02 PM
This is nice and all but we've got to start winning. That's just all there's is to it. Not much you can do to paint over the turd of finishing last.

Well, uh...This was the first time we "finished last" and there are only 4 candidates left, sparky.

Iowa was a close second..NH a solid second. With many more candidates still in.

RPit
01-21-2012, 08:04 PM
We knew this going in that a Gingrich win could be good. But don't tell that to some of the people here on the forums. Same people who keep screaming doom and gloom are out trying to bring everyones morale down.

Of course but there are other States to be had! We have a very good chance at many of the Caucus States. We have a good shot at LA and WA and perhaps even California. So don't fret about it, as this campaign moves West you will see Ron doing better than the rest.

Oddone
01-21-2012, 08:04 PM
This is nice and all but we've got to start winning. That's just all there's is to it. Not much you can do to paint over the turd of finishing last.

Yes, thats why the campaign looked forward to focus on Nevada, Minnesota, Louisiana, Maine, Colorado, Puerto Rico etc. We knew we could not take South Carolina or Florida. Heck we are the only campaign going for US Territories. Example, Puerto Rico in 2008 only had 208 votes at their caucuse which will give whoever wins 23 delegates. We have a group there now that is focusing on taking those votes, thats 23 delegates and so few people vote. Compare that to SC who will award 25 delegates today and will have hundreds of thousands vote.

opinionatedfool
01-21-2012, 08:04 PM
The fight goes on. So far the fight has been about 2% of the delegates. We still have 98% to go.

Oddone
01-21-2012, 08:06 PM
they are all estimates. But if Ron doesn't get any officially, do we even have people in there to pick them up? If so, terrific.

These are hard delegates. So unless we get a brokered convention and go past a couple votes they are Gingrich delegates no matter what. We need Ron Paul people in those delegate spots though, so if it goes brokered we win when they become free after the first couple votes.

RPit
01-21-2012, 08:39 PM
As I expected, Romney won 0 Congressional Districts. So even though the media outlets have given Romney a few delegates they are all wrong. By SC delegate distribution, Newt will take all 25 delegates.

Check out the map, its essentially all Gingrich.

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results