My analysis +The Plan moving forward

[realtonygoodwin]

Unfortunately, it looks like Ron is probably going to end up in 4th place in South Carolina, and it looks like Newt is going to win. For those keeping score at home:

Iowa: Santorum
New Hampshire: Romney
South Carolina: Gingrich

Ron isn't competitive in Florida, and the official campaign is focusing on upcoming caucus states. Smart use of our resources, in my opinion. I do not, unfortunately, see a single state that Ron can win. Polling shows that in heads up polling between Romney and Paul, Romney always wins.
Best case scenario, Gingrich/Romney split a bunch of the upcoming primaries, and maybe Santorum and Paul get a decent amount of delegates also. We get a brokered convention, where anything can happen. The GOP will try to do something to rally the Paul voters behind Romney, perhaps by having Rand as VP, or offering some kind of advisory or cabinet position to Ron. I don't see Ron accepting the position, personally.
More likely: Santorum drops out after Super Tuesday, and Gingrich and Romney fight it out from there. Probably Romney ends up victorious by delegate count.

What can we do now? If you choose to continue to donate to the campaign, please do so. Remember in 2008 Campaign for Liberty came from the donations we gave. But, I urge us to rally behind pro-liberty GOP candidates for US House, US Senate, Governor, and State House and State Senate. We need to donate to their campaigns and get them elected. We need to think long-term. I know many of you feel if Ron Paul is not elected President in 2012, it will be the end of civilization as we know it. I do not feel this way myself, but I respect your opinion. I ask that you still choose to think long-term, just in case you are wrong. Just in case we can have a real shot with a liberty candidate in 2016 or 2020.

Why are we not winning? Several reasons.
1. Ron Paul is a flawed candidate (they all are, don't get me wrong). The things that make him great, are also his downfall. We all know what these things are.

2. Much more importantly, the American people are not ready. We need to spend the next four years in a mass education campaign.

We have made much progress the last four years. In the next four to eight, that progress should continue as people are woken up, as older voters grow older, and as younger voters grow older. As our children, and teenagers, reach voting age. In about 20-30 years, I think we will reach a real turning point in America, as long as we continue our hard work, and as we get liberty candidates elected one by one.
We need to not insult Americans who are not aboard the liberty train, but instead gently educate and convince them, one person at a time, that they need to be aboard. We need liberty activists having jobs that pay really well, so we can fund campaigns, and PACs. We need liberty activists running for winnable offices, and working our ways up through the ranks. We need liberty activists getting involved in their local majority party, whether that is the GOP or the Democratic party. Get on committees where you can help make the rules. Get involved in the media. We have seen what a huge impact the media has. Become teachers and professors, so that students can learn the truth. Have lots of kids and raise them to love liberty. Become political strategists. Volunteer. Get involved and known in your churches, in your communities. That way you can have a lot of influence. Read. Learn. Encourage others to do the same.
We can take this country back. We must. And we have to think long-term.

[FreeTraveler]

Gingrich is going to sprint through SC and Florida, then collapse. This is a marathon. Way too early to quit.

[rachmiel]

Gingrich is going to sprint through SC and Florida, then collapse. This is a marathon. Way too early to quit.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqe5FgwPLYU

Reminds me of Newt.

[realtonygoodwin]

It's all about perception and momentum. As the one candidate who hasn't won a state, it will be extremely difficult for Ron Paul to get the amount of delegates necessary.

I am hoping and praying for a miracle, and I want to be so wrong on this, and I hope after Ron Paul wins the nomination at the convention, this thread gets brought up and you all make fun of me. But, as a professional analyst, I just don't see it.

If anyone is with me on this, please send me a PM so we can start working on the long term plan to win our country back.

[realtonygoodwin]

With 99% of the vote in, Ron did indeed get 4th place.

[Badger Paul]

Thanks for this post. I'm not to argue with people's disappointment because I am too. Heck, we all are. We've made a lot of progress but we still have a long way to go. We have a candidate who we all believe in and appreciate for taking up this cause but his flaws make it hard for him to win. Still, so long as we keep on message rather (which I'm sure RP appreciates) then we'll keep fighting on because in reality, we really don't have much of a choice.

One bright this evening: Still No. 1 among voters 18-39. For their sake, that's why we need to keep going.

[hueylong]

No, Tony. The MEDIA says it's all about perception and momentum. 48 hours ago -- it was over -- Mitt Romney WAS the nominee. Now, 48 hours later, he's in BIG trouble.

Everything can change in an instant, and you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

[realtonygoodwin]

Like I said, I hope I am wrong.

[thoughtomator]

We're not going to have four years. The next leg of the economic disaster will probably happen before the end of this year. By 3 years from now those FEMA camps will have been put to use.

[Maximus]

If we are tanking in the caucus states, we can shift gears. This is still too premature.

[seawolf]

True, Gerald Celente of Trends Research, has predicted the Great Great Depression will come to our door with a vengeance this Spring as Europe Collapses under its own debt crisis.

Bank Holidays in Europe will herald the arrival. Which, if true, could really vindicate Ron Paul and propel him to the nomination.

Remember, anything can happen from anywhere in the world and can immediately affect this race. Keep fighting for Liberty.

[braane]

I think there is too many variables to say that it's over. If we don't win before Super Tuesday (I) then I will start to consider defeat...

Just remember, Romney should be our main competition in Nevada (where we should be competing for a win). If Romney loses by 15%+ in Florida does he still have an edge on us in Nevada? We are the only ones who will be campaigning until after Florida. We are the only ones who have been campaigning there. We have started to run ads way out in front of everyone else. We are pretty well off there. If our support increase holds in Nevada like it has everywhere else we will certainly do well.

Minnesota is also a similar situation. Maine could be ours for the taking if the campaign wants to go after it. If we win Nevada everything goes out the window. It would be a clean slate.

[Rocco]

Exactly, and as a 19 year old I thank all of you who fight for my liberty alongside me. Even older people who will likely get their social security and/or medicare in the immediate future are coming together in concern for my generation, and it is appreciated.


Thanks for this post. I'm not to argue with people's disappointment because I am too. Heck, we all are. We've made a lot of progress but we still have a long way to go. We have a candidate who we all believe in and appreciate for taking up this cause but his flaws make it hard for him to win. Still, so long as we keep on message rather (which I'm sure RP appreciates) then we'll keep fighting on because in reality, we really don't have much of a choice.

One bright this evening: Still No. 1 among voters 18-39. For their sake, that's why we need to keep going.

[realtonygoodwin]

I'm not saying give up. I am just saying we need to focus more on down ticket races.

[realtonygoodwin]

Bump for the daytime folks.

[newbitech]

No, Tony. The MEDIA says it's all about perception and momentum. 48 hours ago -- it was over -- Mitt Romney WAS the nominee. Now, 48 hours later, he's in BIG trouble.

Everything can change in an instant, and you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

hueylong, I know you are more experienced in politics than most people here. However, the idea of perception and momentum being a factor is not something you can simply cast off as being media generated.

The idea of perception and momentum is part of being human. It is more about physics than psychology, as that is the analogy being used. No one denies the media spin that pushes the 3 candidates excluding Ron Paul. However, no one is really doing anything to fight that either. So until there some other method to win, perception and momentum are the working theories behind what propels a candidate to amassing enough delegates at the convention.

Everything can change in an instant, but lets talk about what needs to change. What needs to change is the perception that Ron Paul is the odd man out. What needs to change is that the campaign needs to find another source of momentum other than, well at least no one is running away with the nomination.

Yeah, it's great that Mitt Romney didn't get a clean sweep in the first 3 states. Historically, that doesn't happen anyways. So why are we cheering the fact that what we expected to happen, happened? Where is the perception that says Ron Paul can win? Where is the momentum that gives people like me in a meaningless (as far as the campaign strategy is concerned) state any kind of incentive to participate? I am not going to put my limited resources in to a campaign that is content to playing second fiddle and is playing a "wait and see" approach.

Tell me hueylong, in your professional opinion, at what point does everything change in an instant for Ron Paul and his supporters? I would think that part of your answer includes winning something somewhere at the state levels.

If changing in an instant does not include Ron Paul winning a state, then please tell me how a delegate strategy is going to win.
If changing in an instant includes winning a 3-4 man marathon, then please tell me why the campaign would be feeding us the idea that it's a two man race.
If changing in an instant includes having the funds and organization to run a national campaign, then please tell me why the campaign is focusing on proportional style states, when that amounts to less than the required delegates to win outright.
If changing in an instant includes constantly blaming the media and the voters for having a false perception of Ron Paul, and recognizing the lack of momentum in the progress of the campaign during THIS nomination process, then please please PLEASE tell me, when does that perception change, and when do we see this momentum that is claimed by Ron Paul to exist.

Ron Paul needs a win. Sadly, tripling or quadrupling support from 4 years ago is not going to win THIS nomination.

I really expected a lot more from the campaign and from Ron Paul. I just thought we'd be past making the same mistakes and repeating the same losing strategy as 4 years ago. That is all.

[realtonygoodwin]

hueylong, I know you are more experienced in politics than most people here. However, the idea of perception and momentum being a factor is not something you can simply cast off as being media generated.

The idea of perception and momentum is part of being human. It is more about physics than psychology, as that is the analogy being used. No one denies the media spin that pushes the 3 candidates excluding Ron Paul. However, no one is really doing anything to fight that either. So until there some other method to win, perception and momentum are the working theories behind what propels a candidate to amassing enough delegates at the convention.

Everything can change in an instant, but lets talk about what needs to change. What needs to change is the perception that Ron Paul is the odd man out. What needs to change is that the campaign needs to find another source of momentum other than, well at least no one is running away with the nomination.

Yeah, it's great that Mitt Romney didn't get a clean sweep in the first 3 states. Historically, that doesn't happen anyways. So why are we cheering the fact that what we expected to happen, happened? Where is the perception that says Ron Paul can win? Where is the momentum that gives people like me in a meaningless (as far as the campaign strategy is concerned) state any kind of incentive to participate? I am not going to put my limited resources in to a campaign that is content to playing second fiddle and is playing a "wait and see" approach.

Tell me hueylong, in your professional opinion, at what point does everything change in an instant for Ron Paul and his supporters? I would think that part of your answer includes winning something somewhere at the state levels.

If changing in an instant does not include Ron Paul winning a state, then please tell me how a delegate strategy is going to win.
If changing in an instant includes winning a 3-4 man marathon, then please tell me why the campaign would be feeding us the idea that it's a two man race.
If changing in an instant includes having the funds and organization to run a national campaign, then please tell me why the campaign is focusing on proportional style states, when that amounts to less than the required delegates to win outright.
If changing in an instant includes constantly blaming the media and the voters for having a false perception of Ron Paul, and recognizing the lack of momentum in the progress of the campaign during THIS nomination process, then please please PLEASE tell me, when does that perception change, and when do we see this momentum that is claimed by Ron Paul to exist.

Ron Paul needs a win. Sadly, tripling or quadrupling support from 4 years ago is not going to win THIS nomination.

I really expected a lot more from the campaign and from Ron Paul. I just thought we'd be past making the same mistakes and repeating the same losing strategy as 4 years ago. That is all.

+rep

[realtonygoodwin]

Yeah, I still feel like this applies now as much as ever.

[flynn]

We're not going to have four years. The next leg of the economic disaster will probably happen before the end of this year. By 3 years from now those FEMA camps will have been put to use.

I give it 14 months from now, February 8, 2012. The dollar crisis will be a lot bigger than the housing bubble. It will be the first time, the world has rejected the premiership of Americanism.

[realtonygoodwin]

Our best chances were Iowa, Nevada, Minnesota, and Maine. 0-4

[matt0611]

Our best chances were Iowa, Nevada, Minnesota, and Maine. 0-4

Pretty much. What's a fallback? brokered convention hoping to influence the ticket or platform in someway?

[realtonygoodwin]

Yeah, pretty much that and what I said in the OP.

[carterm]

Our best chances were Iowa, Nevada, Minnesota, and Maine. 0-4

we're 4-0 in those states...according to doug wead.

[Cleaner44]

We will havce a brokered convention. All 4 candidates are in to the end. Nobody gets the 1144. We must own the process, become delegates, delegates for every candidate.