brokered convention now a certainty

[cindy25]

Jeb just endorsed Romney; the establishment will not give up

and the nuts want Newt.

so it has to go all the way to the convention. and this will not be 1976 where 2 candidates fought to the end, because with 2 then one of then had to get a majority.

with 3 (Santorum will pull out) going all the way what will matter is delegates.

[rodo1776]

you are full of caca. there is no brokered convention

[dbill27]

I think Ron wins. In brokered convention.

[Aratus]

a brokered convention is very likely...

[Karsten]

How the heck is a brokered convention likely? Hillary/Obama wasn't a brokered convention.

[bluesc]

Jeb just endorsed Romney; the establishment will not give up.

He did?

[F3d]

Newt's delegates won't go to Paul. We've already seen most voters shift to everyone except Paul. Paul has to win a few after Florida otherwise he has no chance at the nomination.

[Oddone]

Brokered convention is exactly what we wan't. It's all about making sure no one pulls 1,144 delagates. We have a lot of people becoming delegates, example my precinct in Texas controls all 17 delegates and the chair. There is no one challanging us for spots.

[Karsten]

Newt's delegates won't go to Paul. We've already seen most voters shift to everyone except Paul. Paul has to win a few after Florida otherwise he has no chance at the nomination.
This. Look folks, our best chance at winning anything was Iowa. He campaigned all 2011 there. Unless you can show me a poll where Ron Paul is winning in ANY state after florida, it's over.

[F3d]

Again, this can only happen if it's Paul vs. Romney. We have to win some states soon and get momentum. If Newt and Romney gather a large load, Newt's won't go to us nor will Romney's. They shift to everyone except Paul.

Edit: The media would also make it a Newt vs. Romney race.

[tbone717]

This. Look folks, our best chance at winning anything was Iowa. He campaigned all 2011 there. Unless you can show me a poll where Ron Paul is winning in ANY state after florida, it's over.

It appears that the campaign is going all in for the four caucus states in early Feb. If we win 2 or more of those, the game is changed going into Super Tuesday.

[rodo1776]

no brokered convention. Stop drinking or smoking or both and realize that wont happen.

[69360]

This. Look folks, our best chance at winning anything was Iowa. He campaigned all 2011 there. Unless you can show me a poll where Ron Paul is winning in ANY state after florida, it's over.

There's an off chance he might win a caucus state next month, but when you face reality, this is now educational campaign 2.0

[SpicyTurkey]

Both are establishment candidates. One of them will drop out and endorse the other to make sure Paul doesn't win.

[jay_dub]

Doesn't matter what happens. My vote will go to Ron Paul in November...and NO ONE ELSE!!!

[TheTyke]

Newt's delegates won't go to Paul. We've already seen most voters shift to everyone except Paul. Paul has to win a few after Florida otherwise he has no chance at the nomination.
They will if we are the delegates. Some states are completely unbound, but others are released from binding if no one wins on the first ballot in national convention. It's easier to retreat into cynicism and inactivity than to do all the work involved though.


This. Look folks, our best chance at winning anything was Iowa. He campaigned all 2011 there. Unless you can show me a poll where Ron Paul is winning in ANY state after florida, it's over.

He's led South Dakota:
http://race42012.com/2011/12/16/poll-watch-nielson-brothers-south-dakota-2012-presidential-survey/

[r3volution]

This. Look folks, our best chance at winning anything was Iowa. He campaigned all 2011 there. Unless you can show me a poll where Ron Paul is winning in ANY state after florida, it's over.buh by . you know the door analogy .

[Oddone]

no brokered convention. Stop drinking or smoking or both and realize that wont happen.

Are you trying to become a delegate? Ron Paul has already said, he is taking this to convention.

[F3d]

They will if we are the delegates. Some states are completely unbound, but others are released from binding if no one wins on the first ballot in national convention. It's easier to retreat into cynicism and inactivity than to do all the work involved though.

I realize that, but if we don't win states soon, it'll putter out like last time.

[cindy25]

How the heck is a brokered convention likely? Hillary/Obama wasn't a brokered convention.

Hillary vs Obama was 2 people; when there is 2 there can be no brokered convention ; same as Ford vs Reagan.

brokered needs a 3 cornered race with no one over 50%

[kylejack]

How the heck is a brokered convention likely? Hillary/Obama wasn't a brokered convention.
Obama won 3 out of 4 of the early primary states. The first three states have gone to different people here.

[CaptainAmerica]

honest opinion? If ron cannot get 3rd in SC hes done.

[cindy25]

Newt's delegates won't go to Paul. We've already seen most voters shift to everyone except Paul. Paul has to win a few after Florida otherwise he has no chance at the nomination.

Possible wins are any of the caucus states ; also Virginia (Newt not on ballot, so Newt supporters have to vote Paul), Michigan (Justin Amash, large Arab American vote)

forget about Florida; closed primary with old people; Newt takes that hands down.

[hueylong]

If Newt stays in, a brokered convention is very likely. The GREAT story out of tonight, is that Romney is no longer 'inevitable'.

[affa]

You negative nancy's are so freakin' obvious.

Are some of you forgetting that Gingrich was 5th in the most recent primary? And behind Paul in both?

Why would we give up because of one primary we knew wasn't going to go well?

[daviddee]

...

[Joseph]

We have a change at winning Nevada on February 4th, if we win there that would help, I'd go so far as to say that if we are not within a 5% margin of winning Nevada then momentum will be next to impossible. Doing well in Colorado and Minnesota on the 7th is also a possibility and winning those two after winning Nevada would give us credibility and at least put us back on the map. March 6th is Super Tuesday and we could win Idaho, Ohio and maybe North Dekota, but hopefully if we gain momentum between now and then we might be able to pick up a few others. This process will go on at least until June 5th and June 5th has states we are likely to do well with. California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota are all June 5th and we have a shot at getting all 5 of those. So don't lose hope yet. This is gonna be a long race.

[rpwi]

Ron could actually win in a brokered convention. If nobody gets 50%...that means Mitt and Newt will have thrown mud at each other for 50+ states and territories. That a lot of bad blood...to just simply kneel over to your opponent. Paul could also threaten a third party run which republicans might feel would hand Obama the presidency...in which case giving Paul the nomination would represent their best chance for winning.

Don't get me wrong Mitt/Newt supporters seem to despite Paul, but could find themselves supporting him if things fall correctly.

[Odin]

If Santorum stays in, it will 100% be a brokered convention. If that happens no one will win on a first ballot and the delegates will be free to go to however they want.

Even if Ron can't win, anyone could throw their hat into the ring, including Rand or Jim Demint (who would be acceptable to me as the Republican nominee though I know many will disagree with that), and we could get someone a thousand times better than Romney or Gingrich, so it is very important that this thing goes all the way to the convention.

[Lovecraftian4Paul]

Ron could actually win in a brokered convention. If nobody gets 50%...that means Mitt and Newt will have thrown mud at each other for 50+ states and territories. That a lot of bad blood...to just simply kneel over to your opponent. Paul could also threaten a third party run which republicans might feel would hand Obama the presidency...in which case giving Paul the nomination would represent their best chance for winning.

Don't get me wrong Mitt/Newt supporters seem to despite Paul, but could find themselves supporting him if things fall correctly.

No, if there is going to be any third party run, it has to happen by March or April. You can't get on the ballot in most states after the deadlines have passed in the late spring.

[daviddee]

...

[libertybrewcity]

If Newt tanks, he will likely endorse Romney. It could be a negative.

[Paul or not at all]

How the heck is a brokered convention likely? Hillary/Obama wasn't a brokered convention.

Edwards didnt stay in.

[Virtual Isolation]

If Newt tanks, he will likely endorse Romney. It could be a negative.

No chance he endorses Romney after going scorched earth on him. No chance in hell.

[daviddee]

...

[Odin]

You do realize when the last time there was a brokered convention... correct?

The system, as we have today, was specifically setup to prevent brokered conventions.

Except the Republicans changed the system so that all the primaries in March and before are supposed to be proportional (or else they have 50% of their delegates removed), last time around McCain won very easily because of winner take all, but if the new system had been used in 2008 Romney and McCain would have both had ~430 delegates after Super Tuesday and it would have been a long, protracted battle as it will be this year.

[Cortes]

No chance he endorses Romney after going scorched earth on him. No chance in hell.

He will. People will forget he ever said those things. Down the memory hole. Doublethink.

[ShaneEnochs]

Romney suspended his campaign on 2/7/2008.

He might suspend again if he gets destroyed in Florida... When Romney suspends, it is all over.

I never even thought about the possibility of Romney suspending his campaign. That would be an absolute catastrophe...

[cindy25]

Edwards didnt stay in.

Edwards thought he would be either VP or Atty Gen; I have always thought Obama promised him AG

[daviddee]

...

[Created4]

I never even thought about the possibility of Romney suspending his campaign. That would be an absolute catastrophe...

Why? A two man race between Paul and Gingrich is in some ways better than Paul and Romney.

[affa]

Why? A two man race between Paul and Gingrich is in some ways better than Paul and Romney.

Especially when Paul's the only one of the two on some ballots.

[MrGoose]

Edwards dropped because of his baby's mama

If Mitt drops we will win. Newt isn't even in a lot of the other ballots.

[cindy25]

the threat of 3rd party is always there, and the Republican establishment fears it. and it could be done very easily. Gary Johnson gets nominated by the Libertarians, or someone else by the Constitution party. come August, and things go badly at the convention Johnson withdraws as Libertarian candidate, slides down to VP and the Libertarians select Ron; automatic ballot access is a done deal; 15% poll threshold is met.

Gary Johnson is not stupid; VP for Ron would be better than getting 1% for president; he would be heir apparent then to the movement.

Romney knows he can't win without Paul support; Gingrich might believe his hubris but in a 3 way race Gingrich comes in 3rd (Taft 1912)

[kylejack]

I think we lose in a brokered convention. They reeeally hate our foreign policy. Newt would rather give his delegates to Romney, and vice versa.

[Oddone]

I think we lose in a brokered convention. They reeeally hate our foreign policy. Newt would rather give his delegates to Romney, and vice versa.

To bad they can't give their delegates away to anyone. They do not have that power. Each state has different rules, some the delegates become unbound, others they must vote for that person anyways on the first vote then become unbound. This is why we all must become delegates. Example, if you become a delegate and are forced to vote for Newt or Santorum, but they drop you could then vote for Ron Paul. Or if it becomes brokered and it goes to multiple votes, depending on your states rules, after X votes you can vote for whoever you like.

[cindy25]

I think we lose in a brokered convention. They reeeally hate our foreign policy. Newt would rather give his delegates to Romney, and vice versa.

they really hate our foreign policy, but they really fear a 3rd party run; and they both hate and fear 4 more years of Obama.
Mitt especially, if the choice is Paul or Obama, would pick Paul

and he has to see (because of a 3rd party run) that the choice is Paul or Obama. a vote for Gingrich is a vote for Obama. literally.

[kylejack]

Third party threat gambit only works if Jesse Benton stops flapping his lips.

[dfalken]

Possible wins are any of the caucus states ; also Virginia (Newt not on ballot, so Newt supporters have to vote Paul), Michigan (Justin Amash, large Arab American vote)

forget about Florida; closed primary with old people; Newt takes that hands down.

Michigan? What are you people smoking? That is Romney's home state and he is also leading Florida handily and just got endorsed by Jeb. I think the best we can hope for is that this win generates momentum for Newt and that he is able to beat Romney in Florida to further weaken Romney going into the caucuses as Newt doesn't stand a chance there. I like our chances against Newt in the long term better than against Romney but Romney has much more staying power so I am not sure Newt can knock him out...anyway the race just got more interesting today as a Romney win would have ended it just as a Romney win in Florida could also end it. for now let's hope Gingrich can keep his skeletons in the closet for 10 more days but there are so many I don't know that is possible.

[cindy25]

Michigan is Romney's home state as much as Pennsylvania is Newt and Ron's home state. they were born there. means nothing. Romney's father was governor 40 years ago. only those in their 60s and 70s will really remember it.

just heard Jeb is NOT endorsing Romney (as previously reported)

[69360]

Michigan is Romney's home state as much as Pennsylvania is Newt and Ron's home state. they were born there. means nothing. Romney's father was governor 40 years ago. only those in their 60s and 70s will really remember it.

just heard Jeb is NOT endorsing Romney (as previously reported)

Who exactly do you think votes in primaries in the largest numbers. Older folks.

[cindy25]

Who exactly do you think votes in primaries in the largest numbers. Older folks.

true, but after all these years many have moved to other states. Romney in Michigan is not a brand (on the level of Goldwater in AZ, Bush in Texas, Kennedy in Mass, Taft in Ohio)

I doubt if that many people even remember George Romney

[MsDoodahs]

No chance he endorses Romney after going scorched earth on him. No chance in hell.

I will be shocked if Newt endorses Romeny when he folds - and he WILL fold, you guys - SC considers him a "son of the South" because he's from neighboring GA, that's all this was. Seriously, the rest of the country is NOT going to go bonkers for Newt.

Newt seems like a petty vindictive sort of man, so I don't see a Romney endorsement - but the establishment could possibly buy it from him. He is also a man with a price as that arms deal thing demonstrated.

[Badger Paul]

It's not a certainty by any stretch of the imagination but it certaintly helps to have more than three candidates for such a result to take place.

[Paul4Prez]

No one even has 3 percent of the delegates needed to win yet. Someone could lock it up early if they start winning everywhere.

[RonPaul101.com]

There's an off chance he might win a caucus state next month, but when you face reality, this is now educational campaign 2.0

Wow really? there are way too many people on these forums tonight that for some reason must have thought we'd win SC. We lost a state we knew we'd lose, so relax. FL will also be a bad night, so save me the hopelessness on the 31st too. Its still January, its still early. Paul has 3 or 4 more chances to steal the momentum; really.

NV could be one, MN or ME could be another time, WA has the best chance of being one, and the head-to-head battle in VA could be our last solid chance to gain winning momentum. If we can't even beat Romney head-to-head in VA, then I will consider it to be an educational campaign. Until then, it's early.

[ZanZibar]

http://i185.photobucket.com/albums/x93/sonicspikesalbum/Campaign%20VI/800px-2008primarycounties.png

[ZanZibar]

....

[everlasticity]

We need to change the dialogue from promoting a candidate that CAN WIN, to trying to gain support and delegates for any other reason. The horse race is the media's game. As long we participate in the "vote for my candidate because he can win" mentality, we are going to lose.

[South Park Fan]

I concur that this actually presents a prime opportunity for us. Unfortunately, the early state results make it clear that Paul is not going to get a majority of delegates at the national convention. However, Gingrich's surge ensures that the nomination will not be a cakewalk for Romney, and Romney isn't going to be leaving before the convention since he knows he has establishment support (since they think he has a better chance against Obama, and even if he loses they will have a fresh slate of electable candidates in 2016). So long as Newt is a formidable opponent to Romney, neither of them will be able to sew up the nomination early. Paul's slow but steady accumulation of low-hanging fruit will enable him to become a major power broker in the primary season. It will be the Romney or Gingrich delegates' choice whether to accede to our demands or lose the general election.

[sailingaway]

This. Look folks, our best chance at winning anything was Iowa. He campaigned all 2011 there. Unless you can show me a poll where Ron Paul is winning in ANY state after florida, it's over.

He's polling number 1 in South dakota but they don't poll caucuses properly yet for Minn and Wash etc. they are too far out. Ron has a good chance in Louisiana.

[milo10]

Ron could actually win in a brokered convention. If nobody gets 50%...that means Mitt and Newt will have thrown mud at each other for 50+ states and territories. That a lot of bad blood...to just simply kneel over to your opponent. Paul could also threaten a third party run which republicans might feel would hand Obama the presidency...in which case giving Paul the nomination would represent their best chance for winning.

Don't get me wrong Mitt/Newt supporters seem to despite Paul, but could find themselves supporting him if things fall correctly.

Even if that were to somehow happen, which I think is very unlikely, we were unable to beat Rick Santorum in Iowa or South Carolina.

Rick Santorum.

Ron Paul can beat Barack Obama. But Ron Paul's campaign can not beat Barack Obama's campaign.

Changes are going to have to start happening.

[rideurlightning]

I'm not sure if we can actually win in a brokered convention though, unfortunately.

[South Park Fan]

This. Look folks, our best chance at winning anything was Iowa. He campaigned all 2011 there. Unless you can show me a poll where Ron Paul is winning in ANY state after florida, it's over.

Proportional representation is the name of the game until April (save Florida). Even if we don't win any caucuses, we've still have our ~15% as a bargaining chip.

[sirachman]

removed

[virgil47]

Ron could actually win in a brokered convention. If nobody gets 50%...that means Mitt and Newt will have thrown mud at each other for 50+ states and territories. That a lot of bad blood...to just simply kneel over to your opponent. Paul could also threaten a third party run which republicans might feel would hand Obama the presidency...in which case giving Paul the nomination would represent their best chance for winning.

Don't get me wrong Mitt/Newt supporters seem to despite Paul, but could find themselves supporting him if things fall correctly.

Please remember the super delegates that are totally controlled by the GOP. If it is even a little close they will be given their voting orders and the fix will be in.

[sirachman]

removed

[GunnyFreedom]

How the heck is a brokered convention likely? Hillary/Obama wasn't a brokered convention.

No, but Reagan only avoided a brokered convention by accepting HW Bush, who he hated.

[sirachman]

removed

[GunnyFreedom]

If Newt stays in, a brokered convention is very likely. The GREAT story out of tonight, is that Romney is no longer 'inevitable'.

I know right? How is this not obvious?

[GunnyFreedom]

Plus a lot of neo-con Republicans would rather see Obama win and still get their war with Iran than see a Paul presidency and lose their beloved wild military campaign.

And what do you think remains of a GOP who loses (badly) to literally the worst President in American history?

[South Park Fan]

Please remember the super delegates that are totally controlled by the GOP. If it is even a little close they will be given their voting orders and the fix will be in.

So 1144 delegates are required to win. There are 132 superdelegates. Ideally we should keep both Romney and Gingrich under 1012 delegates so that the Establishment can't bypass us to select a nominee, thus meaning that 266 delegates should be our goal for the convention. In reality, the GOP Establishment would prefer Romney to Gingrich for practicality reasons and Santorum will take up a fair amount of delegates which will be used by him as a bargaining chip as well (although that may actually complicate our plans). If the goal is to keep both Romney and Gingrich from possibly winning without either reaching out to us, reaching out to the superdelegates, or reaching out to each other, then to capture 266 delegates we would need to win ~23% of delegates from PR states (assuming we win 0 from WTA states)

[mmadness]

They will if we are the delegates. Some states are completely unbound, but others are released from binding if no one wins on the first ballot in national convention. It's easier to retreat into cynicism and inactivity than to do all the work involved though.

This. That's why it's important FOR ALL OF US to do the homework. Please check out the delegates thread if you haven't already, sign yourself up as a delegate and get involved in the process.

[nbhadja]

No chance he endorses Romney after going scorched earth on him. No chance in hell.

It's all a fake show. Newt would endorse Romney and Romney would endorse Newt. They work for the same people. Their goal is to not let a anti-establishment candidate like Ron Paul win.

[South Park Fan]

It's all a fake show. Newt would endorse Romney and Romney would endorse Newt. They work for the same people. Their goal is to not let a anti-establishment candidate like Ron Paul win.

Maybe an endorsement after the fact, but Newt seems too pompous to withdraw if he thinks he has a chance.

[nbhadja]

States like North/South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming etc will be won by Ron Paul. Also territories like Guam, Virgin Islands can be won by RP as well since only like 100 peoplevote in them.

California would probably be won by Ron Paul and Ron Paul could even win Texas, his own state. Cali+Texas+other smaller states like the ones I listed above+ proportionate delegates from 2nd/3rd place finishes+states with unbound delegates like Iowa could be enough to pull off the shocking upset in a brokered convention. It's a long shot but there is a shot.

[RickyJ]

I think Ron wins. In brokered convention.

They won't let him win. Forget it. They fixed it in Iowa and might have done the same in NH and SC. In a fair election, I say Ron wins hands down.

[nbhadja]

Maybe an endorsement after the fact, but Newt seems too pompous to withdraw if he thinks he has a chance.

Newt would never want a brokered convention, so if he is not winning the meaningless popular vote before convention time then he would drop out and endorse Mitt...or vice versa.

These candidates and their campaigns aren't independent at all. They have a common agenda just like countries are not independent and are all controlled by the same group of international central bankers.

[abstrusezincate]

If this ends up going to a brokered convention, it will probably be a deal where Romney and Gingrich each have around 30-35% of the delegates, and where Paul has a decisive block of about 15%, provided they perform in these caucuses and some of the blue states. I do believe Santorum will eventually fold, probably if he gets pummelled in Florida.

The presumption that Newt and Mitt will play nice is false. If the race goes that far and that deep, neither will be inclined to concede anything to the other, nor will either want to risk releasing the delegates and having a third candidate selected as a compromise. At that point, Ron Paul will truly be a kingmaker and provided the delegates are willing to go with it, they could demand the Earth, Sun, and Moon for whomever wants their support.

I don't think Newt would make the deal, but I do believe Mitt would. It would cost him the choice of VP, auditing the Fed, probably the Sec'y of Treasury, maybe bringing back currency to the treasury from the Fed, and more than that. But considering how much he has spent already, I think he'd make the deal. It'd make people mad here on foreign policy, naturally, but frankly it would be a big step forward in domestic politics.

The alternative for them both is seeing this go to a brokered convention where no one candidate wins, and I hate to tell you this, but unless the campaign is sneakier than I think in terms of getting their people in as pledged delegates for others, the establishment will pick some consensus candidate who they feel matches up well against Obama. Think Jeb Bush or the like. Neither Newt nor Mitt can risk that.

[Kregisen]

This has been the most interesting thread I've read all year.

[kpitcher]

Think Jeb Bush or the like. Neither Newt nor Mitt can risk that.
Jeb? If there's a choice of writing in Paul, or voting against yet another Bush... that'd be a tough choice! Seriously, 2 terms of Bush Jr. really helped push us along on the terrible path we're on now.

[The_Ruffneck]

If this ends up going to a brokered convention, it will probably be a deal where Romney and Gingrich each have around 30-35% of the delegates, and where Paul has a decisive block of about 15%, provided they perform in these caucuses and some of the blue states. I do believe Santorum will eventually fold, probably if he gets pummelled in Florida.

The presumption that Newt and Mitt will play nice is false. If the race goes that far and that deep, neither will be inclined to concede anything to the other, nor will either want to risk releasing the delegates and having a third candidate selected as a compromise. At that point, Ron Paul will truly be a kingmaker and provided the delegates are willing to go with it, they could demand the Earth, Sun, and Moon for whomever wants their support.

I don't think Newt would make the deal, but I do believe Mitt would. It would cost him the choice of VP, auditing the Fed, probably the Sec'y of Treasury, maybe bringing back currency to the treasury from the Fed, and more than that. But considering how much he has spent already, I think he'd make the deal. It'd make people mad here on foreign policy, naturally, but frankly it would be a big step forward in domestic politics.

The alternative for them both is seeing this go to a brokered convention where no one candidate wins, and I hate to tell you this, but unless the campaign is sneakier than I think in terms of getting their people in as pledged delegates for others, the establishment will pick some consensus candidate who they feel matches up well against Obama. Think Jeb Bush or the like. Neither Newt nor Mitt can risk that.
There would be nio point for RPs delegates to get behind newt or romney , they will promise the earth but they won't deliver on those promises.In the event of a brokered convention paul must say vote for me or i will just run third party.To hell with the establishment - noone but paul.

[cindy25]

There would be nio point for RPs delegates to get behind newt or romney , they will promise the earth but they won't deliver on those promises.In the event of a brokered convention paul must say vote for me or i will just run third party.To hell with the establishment - noone but paul.

except one, Romney picks Rand as VP

[cindy25]

And what do you think remains of a GOP who loses (badly) to literally the worst President in American history?

it will go the way of the Whigs, as it should; and a new opposition party would fill the void; might be Libertarians or Constitution or Pirate but this one party with 2 wings charade has to end

[ConsideringRonPaul]

Can someone explain the brokered convention to me and why it is Ron Paul's favor/ how he could turn it into a win

[cindy25]

all conventions until the 50s were brokered; it means it took more than one ballot to select a winner, in some cases dozens of ballots. there are backroom deals for VP, for cabinet positions, for agreeing not to run 3rd party.

the ace in the hole is the threat of a 3rd party run. the establishment fears it because they know it elects Obama (many might want Obama over Paul) and a Dem senate/house (this is what the establishment really fears-loss of their own seats)

[JasonM]

Romney suspended his campaign on 2/7/2008.

He might suspend again if he gets destroyed in Florida... When Romney suspends, it is all over.

He also suspended after super tuesday. Neither Newt nor Romney will suspend until that time. Santorum may drop out before then, but he may not.

[abstrusezincate]

There would be nio point for RPs delegates to get behind newt or romney , they will promise the earth but they won't deliver on those promises.In the event of a brokered convention paul must say vote for me or i will just run third party.To hell with the establishment - noone but paul.

I suspect the campaign is more pragmatic than its supporters. I could be wrong. But what would you do in the scenario I posit where Mitt has 38%, Newt has 36%, and Ron has 19%? There are three basic options, assuming a deal isn't cut between the two frontrunners, in which case Paul gets marginalized.

Option 1: Support a Candidate

If Ron Paul throws his support behind a candidate with these numbers, he will essentially be able to win the nomination for one man or the other. Given the power of that position, he could demand whatever terms he wanted in exchange for that support, including a number of guarantees, such as public statements by the candidate in question on the policy positions or nominations. Whether he could support either candidate without his own base revolting is an open question.

Option 2: Force Convention to Decide

If no coalition is built that reaches 50%, then the delegates will largely be unbound, and the decision about the next candidate will be made at the convention. While Ron Paul would be a possible nominee if he could secure a majority of the delegates, any person including people who did not run may be considered. In fact, should this happen, I would expect someone new to be selected with the narrative being neither person could command a majority and the party needs to be united behind someone who is not damaged goods.

Option 3: Leave the GOP

Ron can always find a vehicle for a third party run, whether it be the Libertarian Party, Americans Elect, or as a true independent, though this decision becomes more difficult and constrained as the convention nears. It offers him complete freedom of message, but would be a nuclear option for both him and his son.

Under the following presumptions, I assume the deal will be cut. Even if it is made unhappily, it might be a good deal for Ron. Let's assume he makes the deal, and goes with Romney. Let's also assume supporters are pissed and don't vote. In that case, Paul makes nice with the party, sets Rand up well, gets more of his ideas on the platform, and the establishment person is likely defeated anyway because of defections to Gary Johnson and others, but the stink doesn't shift to Paul.

Short of a victory, it's a pretty good scenario really, though I suspect people here will just be screaming sellout. The problem with politics is you have to build coalitions, and whether people like it or not, it involves a hell of a lot of compromise. You can have the purity of being right, naturally, but that's why marginal parties perform as they do. Most people are more pragmatic, for better or worse.

[abstrusezincate]

Can someone explain the brokered convention to me and why it is Ron Paul's favor/ how he could turn it into a win

A brokered convention is simply a convention in which no candidate secures enough delegates to win the nomination. Each state will send a contingent of delegates, in accordance with party rules. Some states bind their delegates (they have to vote for a given candidate), some states do not, but most states require delegates to vote for the preferred nominee(s) of their state on a first ballot. There are also superdelegates within the GOP, who by virtue of their status in the party, will get a nominating selection.

Assuming no candidate amasses 50%+1, what happens then is the delegates can gather and select a new candidate. They may select anyone qualified by the party guidelines, which basically means any Republican eligible for the office. Although they may choose someone who had been running, they can also consider someone who was not formerly a candidate.

The theory that some people have is that Ron Paul will have placed enough delegates that even though not all of them were able to vote for him on the first ballot, that they would be able to vote for Ron on the second or subsequent ballots and have him become nominee. It is why the campaign has been so concerned with getting delegates to the convention, and probably their most possible hope of victory.

While you could do this, and it would be perfectly legal by party by-law, you'd need 50%+1 to make it work, which will be very difficult especially when you consider the outstanding party delegates who will be unpledged. There would also be an uproar about having stolen the election, which would be true and irrelevant.

A second, less fulfilling alternative is that the group of Paul delegates would have great say on the eventual nominee in a brokered convention, which is what I believe to be a more probable outcome given the numbers involved. As for how that process would work, it would literally be dealing down on the floor where people swapped votes behind some candidates.

In short, it'd be an interesting but glorious mess, if you like politics. Any party would want to avoid a fractious convention, but if someone doesn't win outright, these things usually end up rather nasty.

[Cyberbrain]

If you're a Ron Paul supporter you signed up for a fight to the convention. Paul is determined to go. So get a short memory when it comes to these primaries. :)

[mmadness]

If you're a Ron Paul supporter you signed up for a fight to the convention. Paul is determined to go. So get a short memory when it comes to these primaries. :)

Yup, and make sure you are one of the ones involved in that fight by making sure you are a delegate for Ron Paul! No excuses! :toady::toady::toady:

[abstrusezincate]

Jeb? If there's a choice of writing in Paul, or voting against yet another Bush... that'd be a tough choice! Seriously, 2 terms of Bush Jr. really helped push us along on the terrible path we're on now.

It's an awful and uninspired choice, I agree. That said, the thinking there is he'd be able to raise a lot of money quickly, which is true, and he wouldn't have the baggage either Mitt or Newt has with the GOP mainstream establishment. While he isn't the only person who fits that mold, someone who has those attributes will be the selection.

[cindy25]

all promises mean nothing; only the VP to Rand would be meaningful, and something they could not double cross on later.

I suspect the delegate count will be 40% Romney 30% Paul 25% Newt 5% others

[BigByrd47119]

Can someone explain to me in painstaking detail why it is that a RP 3rd party run would ruin Rands future prospects?

I understand the argument, "the sins of the father will be visited upon the son" for causing Obama to get another 4 years, Rand would then posses the stigma the GOP would surely visit on his father.

With that said, 4 more years of Obama or any other currently active Republican hopeful would lead to a worse situation for the nation (wars, economy, erosion of liberties, etc.) in which case even more people may be open to Ron and Rands medicine...

Am I wrong?

[helmuth_hubener]

I'm not sure if we can actually win in a brokered convention though, unfortunately. But it would be fun! And it might destroy the Republican Party! That's good enough for me!

There will be chants of End The Fed through Romney's entire acceptance speech. Maybe some snowballs.

[sirachman]

removed

[JJ2]

But it would be fun! And it might destroy the Republican Party! That's good enough for me!

There will be chants of End The Fed through Romney's entire acceptance speech. Maybe some snowballs.

Snowballs? In Tampa, in the summer, when it's 100 degrees? ;)

[affa]

i don't think Newt was ever meant to rebound this hard... and I don't think his ego will let him give this up to Romney.

A Gingrich/Romney or Romney/Gingrich ticket is, well, as absurd as it sounds, and would be general election mega-fail. If internet comments are any judge, the general consenses is that the ABO crowd think ABO can easily beat Obama.... but they're in for a rude awakening.

If Ron is forced to run 3rd party, which I don't think he'll do, I expect Rand to distance himself from it. This will piss us off to no end, and he'll lose the Ron Paul base, but give him establishment cred.

I have no interest in a Romney/Rand ticket. I don't even have interest in a Romney/Ron ticket. Or any ticket with Romney or Gingrich as VP.

I am, as always, No One But Paul. That will not change.

[milo10]

Can someone explain to me in painstaking detail why it is that a RP 3rd party run would ruin Rands future prospects?

I understand the argument, "the sins of the father will be visited upon the son" for causing Obama to get another 4 years, Rand would then posses the stigma the GOP would surely visit on his father.

With that said, 4 more years of Obama or any other currently active Republican hopeful would lead to a worse situation for the nation (wars, economy, erosion of liberties, etc.) in which case even more people may be open to Ron and Rands medicine...

Am I wrong?

I don't think there is a good argument against it from that standpoint. I also don't think that Rand as VP makes much sense. He has more official political power as a Senator than as VP.

I don't think a 3rd party run makes a lot of sense. If this campaign can't win the Republican nomination, there is no way they can win 3rd party.

[jacmicwag]

I don't think there is a good argument against it from that standpoint. I also don't think that Rand as VP makes much sense. He has more official political power as a Senator than as VP.

I don't think a 3rd party run makes a lot of sense. If this campaign can't win the Republican nomination, there is no way they can win 3rd party.

Polls show Ron in third with around 20% when going against Mitt and Obama. He would have to draw more support than that from Independents and Dems to win with a third party run. Not sure there is another 15 points out there for Ron but would be nice to find out.

[rb3b3]

i just registerd to vote for the first time in my life a few weeks ago, just so i can vote for ron in both primary and general..... can i be a delagate for ron? if so how do i go about doing this?

[abstrusezincate]

Polls show Ron in third with around 20% when going against Mitt and Obama. He would have to draw more support than that from Independents and Dems to win with a third party run. Not sure there is another 15 points out there for Ron but would be nice to find out.

Many people on the left know nothing about Ron, so there's probably room to grow there.

[ShaneEnochs]

except one, Romney picks Rand as VP

VP has zero control over anything.

[Professor8000]

I am seriously tired of all of these negative nancies bitching about Ron coming last in one state where he wasn't doing well in to begin with. As soon as anything bad happens they cry, "We just lost our chance at the Nomination!". Grow the fuck up. Get out to your damn precinct and campaign even harder. If you want to make sure we win, then get off of your damn computer and work harder instead of bitching about establishment trash winning the votes of idiots. Honestly, every time Ron does poorly somewhere people come out of the woodworks crying, "The sky is falling!". If you want Ron to win, then take your vacation time and campaign in the next state and make sure he wins there. Or cash in your vacation time and donate the money to the campaign. At the very least, shut the fuck up and quit bitching. No amount of bitching and moaning will change the past, it definitely doesn't do any good for the future. Please excuse my expletive laden post.

[69360]

I am seriously tired of all of these negative nancies bitching about Ron coming last in one state where he wasn't doing well in to begin with. As soon as anything bad happens they cry, "We just lost our chance at the Nomination!". Grow the fuck up. Get out to your damn precinct and campaign even harder. If you want to make sure we win, then get off of your damn computer and work harder instead of bitching about establishment trash winning the votes of idiots. Honestly, every time Ron does poorly somewhere people come out of the woodworks crying, "The sky is falling!". If you want Ron to win, then take your vacation time and campaign in the next state and make sure he wins there. Or cash in your vacation time and donate the money to the campaign. At the very least, shut the fuck up and quit bitching. No amount of bitching and moaning will change the past, it definitely doesn't do any good for the future. Please excuse my expletive laden post.

The issue isn't SC. That was a foregone conclusion. The major issue is that the polling for all the later states is dismal for both a multi candidate race and a 2 man race with Romney.

[GunnyFreedom]

i just registerd to vote for the first time in my life a few weeks ago, just so i can vote for ron in both primary and general..... can i be a delagate for ron? if so how do i go about doing this?

Contact your county GOP and find you when/where your Precinct Organizational Meetings (May also be called Precinct Meetings or Precinct Conventions) will be held and attend them. Volunteer to be a delegate all the way up to County, District, State, and RNC Conventions. Most likely thee is already a group of Paulers in your state that is organizing for this, so connect with them at your County/District/State conventions and work together to achieve resolution and platform amendments on your way to Orlando.