NH Republican Chairmen think Paul could place 3rd or 4th in the state

[DrNoZone]

Paul rakes in cash again (http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071111/NEWS07/711110661/1009)

Republican candidate Ron Paul again showed an unexpected ability to raise money. Last Monday, he took in $4.3 million from about 37,000 donors via the Internet.

Paul -- the Texas congressman and antiwar libertarian -- got attention earlier when he raised $5.2 million in the year's third quarter, putting him fourth among Republican candidates in fund-raising.

He remains behind in polls. But New Hampshire Republican Chairman Fergus Cullen said Paul could finish third or fourth in the state.

[10thAmendmentMan]

I think we can do better than that. :)

[freelance]

Paul rakes in cash again (http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071111/NEWS07/711110661/1009)

Republican candidate Ron Paul again showed an unexpected ability to raise money. Last Monday, he took in $4.3 million from about 37,000 donors via the Internet.

Paul -- the Texas congressman and antiwar libertarian -- got attention earlier when he raised $5.2 million in the year's third quarter, putting him fourth among Republican candidates in fund-raising.

He remains behind in polls. But New Hampshire Republican Chairman Fergus Cullen said Paul could finish third or fourth in the state.

Oh yeah! Let's show him differently! :D

[steph3n]

Paul rakes in cash again (http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071111/NEWS07/711110661/1009)

Republican candidate Ron Paul again showed an unexpected ability to raise money. Last Monday, he took in $4.3 million from about 37,000 donors via the Internet.

Paul -- the Texas congressman and antiwar libertarian -- got attention earlier when he raised $5.2 million in the year's third quarter, putting him fourth among Republican candidates in fund-raising.

He remains behind in polls. But New Hampshire Republican Chairman Fergus Cullen said Paul could finish third or fourth in the state.

let us prove wrong with placing top 3 in Iowa and taking NH in first, then top two in SC and first in NV, will b a great setup :)

[SwooshOU]

I think a top 3 finish in NH would be amazing.

[Ron Paul Fan]

I think a win in NH would be amazing.

[LibertyEagle]

I think a win in NH would be amazing.

I'm with you. :)

[CelestialRender]

We can win NH. In fact, we can win quite a few of them. Even going by the phone polls (which are HEAVILY biased against us), as long as most of us turn out, and only some of them do, we still have very good chances....much better than the MSM is pretending at.

[Jwaksman]

Um, we're ALREADY in 4th place. I think we can finish 2nd. The key will be moving into third place in New Hampshire by the end of the calendar year. Then, finishing third in Iowa and ahead of Rudy, which should give us the momentum to beat Giuliani in New Hampshire.


It's really frustrating. I've been watching the morning news shows, and they all mention the two new polls out of New Hampshire, and Paul's name hasn't even been mentioned yet. They only put the results of the top 3 on the screen. If these people cared about news, they'd care that the two polls out today from New Hampshire have clearly stated that Paul has moved into 4th place in the state, and that McCain's 3rd place is in shouting distance.

[Jordan]

An NH win would be awesome, and entirely possible.

Hes gone from 2% in NH to 7% in just one month. The TV ads are creating a buzz and NHer's are taking a like to him.

[walt]

I think a win in NH would be amazing.

We must win NH if Ron is to be nominated.

[Marceline88]

What was Buchanan speculated to place as in NH when he won it? Wasn't that a surprise upset somewhat?

[max]

If we dont flat out win NH....or at least a strong 2nd....

...we might as well start preparing for a 3rd party run

[MozoVote]

If we dont flat out win NH....or at least a strong 2nd....

...we might as well start preparing for a 3rd party run

I disagree. Even if Paul is just getting 3rd or 4th place in every state, I hope he continues to campaign and remind the party of what it once stood for.

[A Ron Paul Rebel]

I heard radio ad #3 the other day and it sounded really good.

We CAN and WILL win N.H.!!!

[Jwaksman]

I disagree. Even if Paul is just getting 3rd or 4th place in every state, I hope he continues to campaign and remind the party of what it once stood for.


No, a 4th place finish in New Hampshire would be a disaster. We're already in 4th place, so if we get 4th it means that we are stagnant over the last two months of this campaign.


The BARE minimum we need in New Hampshire is a 3rd place finish, and if we're going to win the nomination I really think we have to finish 2nd. It might be asking too much to win the state, but I think that 2nd place is really doable.


We could be in 3rd place in New Hampshire within a month. If we can beat Rudy in Iowa, we can beat him in New Hampshire for 2nd place.

[steph3n]

We can't focus only on NH, it is not a good thing, McCain won in 2000, etc. This is not the best state to "win" if there is not momentum in other states as well!

[Jwaksman]

We can't focus only on NH, it is not a good thing, McCain won in 2000, etc. This is not the best state to "win" if there is not momentum in other states as well!



We need to focus on Iowa and New Hampshire. If we don't do well in those two states, nothing else matters. Momentum is so important.

[Furis]

let us prove wrong with placing top 3 in Iowa and taking NH in first, then top two in SC and first in NV, will b a great setup :)

I think Top 2 is possible in Iowa if we are able to get his name out there more and that he is a viable candidate.

My best guess on Iowa right now:
Huck
Romney
Dr. No

I think that there is potential to pass Romney but I see Huck coming in first. Giuliani and McCain shouldn't do well in Iowa at all due to their being quite liberal.


First is NH I believe will happen.

Top 2 in SC is unlikely to me I would say he gets 3rd at best, but heres hoping and praying for first or second.

First in NV is also very likely.

[Furis]

If we can beat Rudy in Iowa, we can beat him in New Hampshire for 2nd place.

If we dont beat Rudy in Iowa I will cry because my state will have officially gone to hell.

[bobmurph]

2004 NH Primary:

A total of 221,309 Granite Staters voted in the Democratic primary, a record turnout, while 69,414 voted in a Republican primary that saw the President running against a host of so-called “no name” hopefuls.

Kerry won with 38 percent of the Democratic primary vote, followed by Dean with 26 percent, Clark with 12.3 percent, Edwards with 11.9 percent, Lieberman with 8.5 percent, Kucinich with 1.4 percent and Sharpton with less than one percent.

Bush drew 78 percent of the Republican primary vote.


*Only 69k votes in the GOP NH Primary in 2004. RP is only trails Romney and McCain in GOP NH fundraising. How many votes do we need to win?? 35k-40k?

[Jwaksman]

2004 NH Primary:

A total of 221,309 Granite Staters voted in the Democratic primary, a record turnout, while 69,414 voted in a Republican primary that saw the President running against a host of so-called “no name” hopefuls.

Kerry won with 38 percent of the Democratic primary vote, followed by Dean with 26 percent, Clark with 12.3 percent, Edwards with 11.9 percent, Lieberman with 8.5 percent, Kucinich with 1.4 percent and Sharpton with less than one percent.

Bush drew 78 percent of the Republican primary vote.


*Only 69k votes in the GOP NH Primary in 2004. RP is only trails Romney and McCain in GOP NH fundraising. How many votes do we need to win?? 35k-40k?





Remember, Bush was running unconstested. So all the independents voted in the Democratic race, and plenty of Republicans didn't bother to show up at all. With the race more interesting on the Republican side, we could actually see more votes on the Republican side this time around. Total Republican voters could be upwards of 150,000. Although 40k could still be enough to win.

[csen]

I think Top 2 is possible in Iowa if we are able to get his name out there more and that he is a viable candidate.

My best guess on Iowa right now:
Huck
Romney
Dr. No

I think that there is potential to pass Romney but I see Huck coming in first. Giuliani and McCain shouldn't do well in Iowa at all due to their being quite liberal.


First is NH I believe will happen.

Top 2 in SC is unlikely to me I would say he gets 3rd at best, but heres hoping and praying for first or second.

First in NV is also very likely.

Here's what I'd guess for Iowa right now:

Romney
Huckabee
Paul
McCain
Giuliani
Thompson

and NH:

Romney
Paul
McCain
Huckabee
Giuliani
Thompson

Gonna be very interesting to see what happens to Rudy after he turfs both those two. My guess is most of his support goes to Romney.

[Jwaksman]

Here's what I'd guess for Iowa right now:

Romney
Huckabee
Paul
McCain
Giuliani
Thompson

and NH:

Romney
Paul
McCain
Huckabee
Giuliani
Thompson

Gonna be very interesting to see what happens to Rudy after he turfs both those two. My guess is most of his support goes to Romney.



Huck is not beating Giuliani in New Hampshire. Also, McCain will not beat Giuliani in Iowa. Giuliani has a lot more money to spend than either of those two, and will have larger staffs in those states. Also, McCain has basically written off Iowa, so he won't even try to compete with Giuliani there.

[Ron Paul Fan]

Here's what I'd guess for Iowa and New Hampshire...

Iowa:

Paul
Huckabee
Romney
Giuliani
Thompson
McCain

And New Hampshire:

Paul
Romney
Giuliani
McCain
Huckabee
Thompson

[dspectre]

Saying Paul can place 3rd or 4th is not really a compliment.

[Jwaksman]

Here's what I'd guess for Iowa and New Hampshire...

Iowa:

Paul
Huckabee
Romney
Giuliani
Thompson
McCain

And New Hampshire:

Paul
Romney
Giuliani
McCain
Huckabee
Thompson



Let's hope:D If Paul wins Iowa then the nomination is over - everyone else can just go home. I think we can finish as low as third in Iowa and still win the nomination. Anything about that is gravy.

[bobmurph]

Here's what I'd guess for Iowa and New Hampshire...

Iowa:

Paul
Huckabee
Romney
Giuliani
Thompson
McCain

And New Hampshire:

Paul
Romney
Giuliani
McCain
Huckabee
Thompson


Now THAT would be awesome! I'd be surprised if Romney doesn't at least get 2nd in Iowa though, let alone win.

[DeanToPaulIn4Years]

imo, that's the key. for whatever reason, the flip-flopper in chief, Mitt Romney is gaining ground in new hampshire. it shouldn't be hard to put together some decent attack ads based on his history.

unfortunately, i think that will be necessary to close the gap.

it doesn't even need to be particularly nasty. just show romney pandering to "double guantanamo" followed by the confused :confused: (and maybe somewhat frightened) look of a typical NH voter, followed by a quick blurb from Ron Paul. just need to break that fabricated image Romney has going.

[bobmurph]

imo, that's the key. for whatever reason, the flip-flopper in chief, Mitt Romney is gaining ground in new hampshire. it shouldn't be hard to put together some decent attack ads based on his history.

unfortunately, i think that will be necessary to close the gap.

it doesn't even need to be particularly nasty. just show romney pandering to "double guantanamo" followed by the confused :confused: (and maybe somewhat frightened) look of a typical NH voter, followed by a quick blurb from Ron Paul. just need to break that fabricated image Romney has going.

Just run the "Ron Paul (Remix)" commercial...we only need to get CCR & John Fogerty to give us a discounted rate on the song licenscing :D

[Jwaksman]

imo, that's the key. for whatever reason, the flip-flopper in chief, Mitt Romney is gaining ground in new hampshire. it shouldn't be hard to put together some decent attack ads based on his history.

unfortunately, i think that will be necessary to close the gap.

it doesn't even need to be particularly nasty. just show romney pandering to "double guantanamo" followed by the confused :confused: (and maybe somewhat frightened) look of a typical NH voter, followed by a quick blurb from Ron Paul. just need to break that fabricated image Romney has going.



Let Giuliani and Romney attack each other. We want to stay clean if we can.

[jd603]

I'm thinking 1st or 2nd in the GOP :)



QUOTE=DrNoZone;392393]Paul rakes in cash again (http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071111/NEWS07/711110661/1009)

Republican candidate Ron Paul again showed an unexpected ability to raise money. Last Monday, he took in $4.3 million from about 37,000 donors via the Internet.

Paul -- the Texas congressman and antiwar libertarian -- got attention earlier when he raised $5.2 million in the year's third quarter, putting him fourth among Republican candidates in fund-raising.

He remains behind in polls. But New Hampshire Republican Chairman Fergus Cullen said Paul could finish third or fourth in the state.[/QUOTE]

[Adamsa]

What place did people think Buchanan would come in?

[RP4ME]

Um no we need to win it! We wont get teh nomination raking in 2-3rd place finishes

[Goldwater Conservative]

Saying Paul can place 3rd or 4th is not really a compliment.

It is considering he's competing against two national political celebrities (Giuliani and McCain), a guy who bleeds money (Romney), and Fred "Dubya Goes to Hollywood" Thompson (and I say that as someone who likes the guy). Look at it this way: how often do ordinary members of the House do this well? The "bottom-tier" on both sides consist of Congressmen (Kucinich, Tancredo, Hunter), with Paul probably one step above.

Anyway, I'm not about to say what I think is needed in Iowa or New Hampshire, but I think we have a good shot even now of beating Giuliani and/or McCain in Iowa (maybe even Thompson if he continues his free-fall), and everyone but Romney and Giuliani in NH. That's not bad at all, considering it would mean Paul could wind up beating four of the five frontrunners at least once in the first two states.

[Energy]

Saying Ron can place 3rd or 4th is trying to box him in with self-fulfilling prophecy. Irks me when they do this. But at least it's not bottom tier.

[Ozwest]

If we can get Ron up to about 12% in New Hampshire we can win it because we'll get a bigger slice of the Indy's and our supporters will vote in higher numbers than the other candidates. Romney is the biggest worry though, because he will spend oodles to get voters to the polls, as he did in the Iowa straw poll.

[ronpaulyourmom]

First in NH is essential. We might be 2nd in polls when the primary rolls around but we'll need to use turnout to pull an upset and take 1st.

[NOLA]

Do we guys live in la la land. The purpose of running this campaign is to WIN..not place 2nd or 3rd. Do you honestly believe if we finish 4th in Iowa and 3rd in NH....that we have a chance in hell to win this nomination??? Wake up...we need to win some primaries...d you think Rudy and Mitt are "gee we need to do ok in the primaries...and just look good?" No...they want to win....Why does we not want to win anything??? It starts from the top with Ron himself not believing he can win. Why does he not put more resources into Nevada, SC, Florida and forget IOWA...you know what the media wants to do..paint Ron as a person that can not win...period. What is the storyline gonna be coming out of IOWA...Ron beats Hunter and Tancredo...please....it is going to be Ron Paul is a disappointing 4th...Ron Paul needs to discount Iowa and put his resources into winning the major Primaries...not setting himself up for failure....put all your resource into NH, Nevada, South Carolina...places we can legitemately win.

Think about it...if Rudy is going to have a bad showing in Iowa are they going to hold it against him? No...they are going to hold it against Ron though. Paul needs to spin Iowa...like we put in a lot of resources into Iowa for the Iowa caucus showing the people we care but we want to win the nomination so we are running a NATIONAL campaign. Ron is realistically not going to win Iowa with his anti-Farm aid positions. He can win Nevada, South Carolina, and New Hampshire....We need to believe in the Powell doctrine that you don't go into war without over-whelming force. We should have over-whellming force in NH, Nevada, adn South Carolina...and start putting resources into Florida.

Sometimes I wonder if Ron Paul has a game plan to win the Nomination...the line that we are "popular among young people" is not going to win this nomination.

[Goldwater Conservative]

Do we guys live in la la land. The purpose of running this campaign is to WIN..not place 2nd or 3rd.

Well, if we can beat two or three of the five "frontrunners" in Iowa, and a different two or three in New Hampshire, and the person who wins one doesn't win the other, the headlines will be "the race is still wide open" AND that Ron Paul did far better than anyone was predicting and beat most or all of the "frontrunners" in at least one of the two first states. Similar to what happened to Clinton in '92, I think. I'm just saying that we should aim for first place, but realize that all isn't lost if we don't make it.

[Tratzman]

With a Ron Paul supporter in large precincts to give stirring speeches in the caucuses, I predict a large number of undecideds will go to RP on voting day. I plan on getting at least 50% in my precinct with some passionate oration!!

Chad:D

[hatefalseweight]

About the only thing he can do is hope to beat one of the neocons in both Iowa and New Hampshire, hope Huck falters early, and can quickly posiition himself as the conservative alternative to Giulian and Romney. Maybe then he can get a word in edgewise and the Christofascists will get a chance to make a legitimate assessment of whether they really want biblical , constitutional government or support the NWO they supposedly are against.

[scudiac]

top 3 finish in NH is guaranteed.

[Nash]

We can't focus only on NH, it is not a good thing, McCain won in 2000, etc. This is not the best state to "win" if there is not momentum in other states as well!

A win there translates into a massive poll spike nationally and that is why it's so important.

Buchanan shot up 15 points nationally after winning NH.

NH won't deliver the nomination but it's our best chance to get major major press and credibility and will impact how we do in other states.

[Gurran]

Let's not forget that Paul's support is much more enthusiastic and willing to go to the primary to see him win. The same cannot be said about the other canidates. Ron Paul has thousands of grassroots campaigns all spending time and money on Paul simply because they believe he stands for real change.

However, the same cannot be said about the other canidates. When polls are done , it gives in inaccurate scope of their support. Most of Giuliani's support is lukewarm - they'll say they like him when they get a phone call. Will this person who says the "support" Giuliani spend time money and, more importantly, go out and vote for him in the primary? Odds are they pass on the oppurtunity to turn their support into anything of any electoral worth. Their so-called "support" ends at the period of their sentence.

Historically, of these "supporters", only 6-7% will show up to actually vote in the primary. The percentage will be much much higher for Paul's supporters.

Ron Paul's support is different. His supporters will line up regardless of whether its rain shine or blizzard. It's amazing what people will do for freedom.

Paul only needs ~15,000 votes to win New Hampshire. He has 80,000 supporters there. If only a mere 20% of his supports show up, he wins. It could be higher.

This won't be a freak occurance. Clinton was polling at half of what Paul is. He won. Same with Carter. Hell, McCain won in New Hampshire, and he was polling roughly were Paul is.

[NOLA]

Is that true that he only needs 15,000 votes to win??? That would be awesome...and how do we know that he has 80,000 supporters there...if that is true we should focus on other states too.

[Ron Paul Fan]

I think it took 115,000 to win in 2000. I think 15,000 is a little low even with 5 neo-cons splitting the vote.

[Primbs]

Romney has a good track record of getting his supporters to the polls because he pays for buses. He will be tough because he will pour in millions of dollars.

Our supporters are more motivated however, so we need less money.

Don't underestimate Romney. He is the one to beat in New Hampshire.

[Ron Paul Fan]

Romney has a good track record of getting his supporters to the polls because he pays for buses. He will be tough because he will pour in millions of dollars.

Our supporters are more motivated however, so we need less money.

Don't underestimate Ron Paul. He is the one to beat in New Hampshire.

FYP. It looks a lot better now!

[Leslie Webb]

Let's go for landslides in Iowa and New Hampshire! Both states are ripe for Ron Paul.

1. Iowa- Shades of the Old Right and Robert Taft. Below is an article about a poll from last spring. Last spring more than 50% of Iowa Republicans favored withdrawal from Iraq in six months. I don't know what the current percentage is now. But suppose the worst case that 'the surge is working' propaganda has caused a decline in this percentage since last spring. There would still probably be large Iowa Republican support of 30-40% for Ron on the Iraq issue alone, ethanol or no ethanol.

http://www.thedailyacts.com/Foreign-Policy/63/new-poll-iowa-republicans-support-withdrawal-from-iraq.html

Bryce Shonka of the Los Angeles meetup is organizing a writing campaign to 700,000 Iowa voters. Even if we only get a 5% or 10% favorable response, it could make a huge difference. Meetup leaders should contact bshonka@gmail.com, 310.367.5981

Also, Jack Wagner, jacmicwag@hotmail.com has a project to email thousands of Iowa college students.

These two projects could influence tens of thousands of voters our way, especially combined with lots of media buys and more Ron Paul visits to Iowa.

2. If it can get a thousand volunteers or several hundred anyway, Operation Live Free or Die could put us over the top in New Hampshire. Money and ads can get us into fourth or third place, but we will need boots on the ground, going from door to door, to beat Romney. New Hampshire may be the freest state in the country; it's only a matter of grunt work for us to get the message out door to door.

[Goldwater Conservative]

Romney has a good track record of getting his supporters to the polls because he pays for buses. He will be tough because he will pour in millions of dollars.

Our supporters are more motivated however, so we need less money.

Don't underestimate Romney. He is the one to beat in New Hampshire.

Possibly, but if Paul is the only one left running against Romney, he might start moving in Paul's direction on the war issue in anticipation of running against Hillary (if it's Obama, this might all be different) and realizing that he's going to need to undermine her support from anti-war individuals... but he'd have to be careful, because Paul would be far more popular with conservatives on everything but the drug war and maybe the Federal Reserve.