Latest South Carolina polls for Friday, Jan 20

[123tim]

Current polls all on one page:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

If anyone knows of any other current polls would you mind posting them?
Thank you.

[rp08orbust]

The requested URL /ephttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/olls/latest_polls/ was not found on this server.

[youngbuck]

Link works now for me.

[123tim]

The requested URL /ephttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/olls/latest_polls/ was not found on this server.
Oops. :) Fixed.
My fault. Thank you.

[pauliticalfan]

RCP graph looks strange. EVERYONE going down but Newt going up? I'm sure it's possible but it seems off.

[luctor-et-emergo]

This '01.18.12 InsiderAdvantage SC poll stinks.

Document can be found here;
realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_SC_0118.pdf

Paul got;
2.1% Aged 18-29 vs 59.1% for Gingrich
7.1% Black voters vs 83.4% for Gingrich
EQUAL Male-Female ratio, which isn't what you'd expect as Paul consistently polls better among men.
28% of Dems vs 46.8% for Gingrich, 26% Indie vs 32.7% for Gingrich...

So I don't know about this polling, Paul got more votes in NH than polling predicted... In IA maybe not, but that's probably due to those last minute surges.

[123tim]

This '01.18.12 InsiderAdvantage SC poll stinks.

Document can be found here;
realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_SC_0118.pdf

Paul got;
2.1% Aged 18-29 vs 59.1% for Gingrich
7.1% Black voters vs 83.4% for Gingrich
EQUAL Male-Female ratio, which isn't what you'd expect as Paul consistently polls better among men.
28% of Dems vs 46.8% for Gingrich, 26% Indie vs 32.7% for Gingrich...

So I don't know about this polling, Paul got more votes in NH than polling predicted... In IA maybe not, but that's probably due to those last minute surges.

I guess that the PPP poll has been most accurate in the past?
I was wondering about this.

[luctor-et-emergo]

PP:
IA 1-1 Paul 20
NH 1-7/1-8 Paul 18

Final results:
IA Paul 21.5% (+1.5%)
NH Paul 22.9%(+4.9%)

Gingrich on the other hand...
PP: IA 14% NH 12%
Actual:IA 13.3% (-0.7%) NH 9.4% (-2.6%)

Based on the numbers so far, PPP is under-predicting Paul and over-predicting Gingrich. The under-predicting of Paul is more dominant though.
Not going into statistical significance there's a lot of people that can ramble for hours to justify these kind of results. But it's just one more thing to add on the list of coincidences.

PS: we'll see after this election which of the three cases stated below is true;
1)PPP has no bias but is bad at accurate polling.
2)PPP has an increasing bias against Paul.
3)I need to read more books about statistics.

I sure hope it's either one or two, I liked algebra more then stat.. ;)

[TCE]

PP:
IA 1-1 Paul 20
NH 1-7/1-8 Paul 18

Final results:
IA Paul 21.5% (+1.5%)
NH Paul 22.9%(+4.9%)

Gingrich on the other hand...
PP: IA 14% NH 12%
Actual:IA 13.3% (-0.7%) NH 9.4% (-2.6%)

Based on the numbers so far, PPP is under-predicting Paul and over-predicting Gingrich. The under-predicting of Paul is more dominant though.
Not going into statistical significance there's a lot of people that can ramble for hours to justify these kind of results. But it's just one more thing to add on the list of coincidences.

PS: we'll see after this election which of the three cases stated below is true;
1)PPP has no bias but is bad at accurate polling.
2)PPP has an increasing bias against Paul.
3)I need to read more books about statistics.

I sure hope it's either one or two, I liked algebra more then stat.. ;)

PPP is not in favor of Gingrich, so there's no conspiracy. The 1.5% is well within the margin of error and the 4.9% is slightly out of it. Can probably explain a 0.5% differential or so because enough of Paul's supporters either don't have home phones and are thus not polled, or have never voted in a GOP Primary before, so wouldn't be counted by some measurements.