Insider Adv.: Gingrich 31.6%, Romney 28.8, Paul 15.2, Santorum 10.9

[Highstreet]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_SC_0118.pdf

Look at the cross tabs. Everything's all mixed up from previous actual votes.

For instance 59% of 18-29 yr olds are going to Gingrich???
83% of blacks for Gingrich????

Also keep in mind this came out before Gingrich's wife's story hit the news cycle.

[Nisse]

This must be a bogus poll.

[wgadget]

Fantastic. Romney's newfound loss in Iowa combined with a loss to Newt in SC will keep the race wide open.

YAHOO!

[qh4dotcom]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_SC_0118.pdf

Look at the cross tabs. Everything's all mixed up from previous actual votes.

For instance 59% of 18-29 yr olds are going to Gingrich???


Also keep in mind this came out before Gingrich's wife's story hit the news cycle.

Only 22 blacks were polled...you're right about the 18-29 year olds...Paul only got 2% with them.

[TexMac]

Now, I’m not saying that I know for sure that Insider Advantage polls are purposely biased towards Newt Gingrich, but doesn’t it look awfully strange that their founder’s former boss has been the beneficiary of surveys that are constantly different than the average poll?

http://marginoferror.org/?p=115

[Liberty74]

This must be a bogus poll.

It's not out of the realm after Sarah came out saying she would vote for Newt and after Newt's debate performance.

I don't get why people dismiss these polls. They are dead on within the margin. Remember, the election is very fluid in a 5 way race now 4.

[Diurdi]

I don't get why people dismiss these polls. They are dead on within the margin. Remember, the election is very fluid in a 5 way race now 4. While the overall percentages are totally plausible, it strikes me as odd for Paul to only have 2.1% of the 18-29 cathegory. I don't buy that at all.

[KingNothing]

Only 22 blacks were polled...you're right about the 18-29 year olds...Paul only got 2% with them.

lol Paul got 15-percent of the total vote and only 2-percent of the youth vote.

That can't happen.

Why even release this poll? How could they have any confidence in it?

[CasualApathy]

Cheering for a Newt win?! No... I just can't do it, I just can't.

Besides, the worse Newt does the better for RP, I don't get this logic that Newts voters would go for Romney over Paul or Santorum at all. Newt has been going after Romney hard and his voters will be poisoned towards Romney. Besides, in public perception Newt and Romney are further apart than Newt and Ron (the exception being foreign policy), who are both considered fiscal conservatives, while Mitt is the moderate/liberal.

[The Goat]

They don't care what these polls say in the cross tabs. the elections are rigged and the polls only need to parrot what the elections are eventually going to show.

[CasualApathy]

They don't care what these polls say in the cross tabs. the elections are rigged and the polls only need to parrot what the elections are eventually going to show.

Then what's the point? Why are you even here if you think our political action doesn't matter? This is primarily a political action forum.

[trey4sports]

hoping for a Romney win. We can't afford a Newt resurrection.

[CasualApathy]

Hoping for effectually a Paul/Romney tie. If Ron does awesome at tonights debate and Newt gets destroyed who is to say what can happen.

[Snowball]

Media reporting Perry is going to endorse Gingrich.

Gingrich will win South Carolina.

[CasualApathy]

Nah, he wont. Mark my words.

[Shane Harris]

Fantastic. Romney's newfound loss in Iowa combined with a loss to Newt in SC will keep the race wide open.

YAHOO!

unfortunately IMO it makes it a two man race to the media and they forget about rp completely and play it up as newt versus romney. In such a case I predict we would get only about 15% of the vote in states further away which vote solely on the media narrative.

[angelatc]

hoping for a Romney win. We can't afford a Newt resurrection.

I don't know. A Romney win gives him a sweep (yes, I know he didn't win Iowa, but the perception is already imbedded), making him to appear to be the clear winner. People in later states won't even bother to show up to vote in their primaries because they consider it a done deal.

And you can pretend that the college kids will turn out en masse regardless of the perceived inevitability of ROmney, but looking at the turnouts in NH and IA, where the races were closer, doesn't give me much hope in that respect.

Gingrich is a lightening rod - a win in SC might keep the race lively for a little longer.

[Peace&Freedom]

unfortunately IMO it makes it a two man race to the media and they forget about rp completely and play it up as newt versus romney. In such a case I predict we would get only about 15% of the vote in states further away which vote solely on the media narrative.

Only most of the upcoming contests are caucuses, where only Paul and Mitt are organized to compete. Gingrich winning SC, along with Iowa not being a Romney win, throws the race into unclear waters, with no one with a "unstoppable" aura around them. On balance, it's a better scenario for Paul.

[GHoeberX]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_SC_0118.pdf

Look at the cross tabs. Everything's all mixed up from previous actual votes.

For instance 59% of 18-29 yr olds are going to Gingrich???
83% of blacks for Gingrich????

Also keep in mind this came out before Gingrich's wife's story hit the news cycle.

LOL!!!!! Insider Advantage Polling the 18-29 vote:

1. Gingrich 59,1%
2. Santorum 12,9%
3. Someone else 12,9%
4. No opinion 12,9%
5. Ron Paul 2,1%

------------

Now let's take a look again at the election RESULTS in Iowa and New Hampshire...

[parocks]

I don't know. A Romney win gives him a sweep (yes, I know he didn't win Iowa, but the perception is already imbedded), making him to appear to be the clear winner. People in later states won't even bother to show up to vote in their primaries because they consider it a done deal.

And you can pretend that the college kids will turn out en masse regardless of the perceived inevitability of ROmney, but looking at the turnouts in NH and IA, where the races were closer, doesn't give me much hope in that respect.


Gingrich is a lightening rod - a win in SC might keep the race lively for a little longer.


Colleges were not in session - IA, NH

[parocks]

Only most of the upcoming contests are caucuses, where only Paul and Mitt are organized to compete. Gingrich winning SC, along with Iowa not being a Romney win, throws the race into unclear waters, with no one with a "unstoppable" aura around them. On balance, it's a better scenario for Paul.

Id much rather see Santorum doing well than Gingrich doing well. And the original plan of bringing it to a 2 man race I liked.

But if we believe polls, most polls do not show good head to heads Paul vs Romney. I've seen really bad ones. 65-35 for Romney vs Paul is not good. Of course, we couldn't know that that's what the polls would be seeing now before Iowa.

Gingrich can win, Santorum cannot.

[thoughtomator]

we need military vets to observe the elections and deter fraud

[123tim]

lol Paul got 15-percent of the total vote and only 2-percent of the youth vote.

That can't happen.

Why even release this poll? How could they have any confidence in it?

It can happen.....did you notice the "someone else" polling at 12.9%?
I'll betcha that "someone else" is the Colbert/Cain ticket.

[Shane Harris]

Only most of the upcoming contests are caucuses, where only Paul and Mitt are organized to compete. Gingrich winning SC, along with Iowa not being a Romney win, throws the race into unclear waters, with no one with a "unstoppable" aura around them. On balance, it's a better scenario for Paul.

santorum barely had an organization in iowa and still won. the media still has power over caucuses