Insider Adv S Car 1/18: Gingrich 32% Romney 29% Paul 15% Santorum 11%

[rp2012win]

Perry got 3%. 1 day poll.

[jax]

Ideally we want grinch to win and then plummit after his exwifes interview

[UK4Paul]

Insider Adv 1/18: Gingrich 32% Romney 29% Paul 15% Santorum 11%

I presume we're talking South Carolina here?

[James Madison]

Newt is McCain redux 2012. He WILL win the nomination if we don't do something about it fast.

[AngryCanadian]

What That Newt got First place? unbelievable:mad:

[sailingaway]

On the one hand, Ron is in third. On the other hand, he has barely more than half what Romney has. So here's hoping that shakes up a bit with the stories and web stuff out on Romney and the Gingrich 'bombshell' whatever that turns out to be.

[UK4Paul]

Not good for Santorum... maybe time for him to go after SC.

[bluesc]

Newt is McCain redux 2012. He WILL win the nomination if we don't do something about it fast.

Did you not hear about the interview that is airing tomorrow? Apparently it will kill his political career.

[AngryCanadian]

Newt is McCain redux 2012. He WILL win the nomination if we don't do something about it fast.
I hope ABC News release that interview.

[emr1028]

This is awesome news! If Gingrich can beat Romney in SC, he could probably put up a fight in FL as well, which will really hurt the perception of Romney as the inevitable nominee. It will also lead to tons of money being funneled into the coffers of a guy who wants nothing more than to kill Romney. I never thought I'd say this, but go Newt!

[sailingaway]

Newt is McCain redux 2012. He WILL win the nomination if we don't do something about it fast.

Newt is evil, and has enemies in a pervasive way McCain didn't.

[sailingaway]

This is awesome news! If Gingrich can beat Romney in SC, he could probably put up a fight in FL as well, which will really hurt the perception of Romney as the inevitable nominee. It will also lead to tons of money being funneled into the coffers of a guy who wants nothing more than to kill Romney. I never thought I'd say this, but go Newt!

I don't agree, but we can't dictate it in any event; it will be what it will be.

[rp2012win]

This poll seems to confirm what PPP said tonight. Gingrich is eating away at santorum.

[wgadget]

Newt is toast. You don't read Drudge?

[SchleckBros]

I'd be happy with those results.

[ZENemy]

So NEWT can go to first place because he "sounded smart" at a debate

Santorum can nearly win Iowa because ....ummm....what happened again? The Media said so and it happened?

Yet Paul has had a CLEAR shift and gained huge support over the last few weeks and we cant go ANYWHERE? bleeeh

[RileyE104]

I'm laughing just picturing the look on Romney's face right now..

At least it isn't Santorum who surged... I hope after SC it's only Newt, Romney and Ron in the race.

[UK4Paul]

Hehe... this is shaping up to be an interesting race :)

Here's hoping Mittens and the Grinch will take each other down, and people will look for an honest, ethical alternative...

[RonPaulFever]

Pray that Newt wins, folks. Romney must be stopped or it's over.

[justatrey]

Third place was really what a lot of us were hoping for originally, so keep things in perspective. As usual we all got our hopes up too high when one good poll came out.

Let's just root for Paul in the debate, and Newt's ex in the interview. If the interview lives up to the hype, second place might even still be a possibility.

[rp2012win]

Third place was really what a lot of us were hoping for originally, so keep things in perspective. As usual we all got our hopes up too high when one good poll came out.

Let's just root for Paul in the debate, and Newt's ex in the interview. If the interview lives up to the hype, second place might even still be a possibility.3rd place would beat expectations. Santorum is supposed to beat paul. The big news will be newt vs mitt though. Nevada could be our firewall.

[seapilot]

I'd be happy with those results.

Same here. Third place is not bad for SC. Beating Santorum will make it that much sweeter.

[nasaal]

Pray that Newt wins, folks. Romney must be stopped or it's over.
no no no. We do better in a two man race as the true alternative than having Newt and Romney both in it.

[69360]

Newt is McCain redux 2012. He WILL win the nomination if we don't do something about it fast.

Not even close. Romney is starting to run away with it.



Hehe... this is shaping up to be an interesting race :)

Here's hoping Mittens and the Grinch will take each other down, and people will look for an honest, ethical alternative...

It's starting to look unlikely. :mad: The average person here just doesn't get how serious the problems we are facing are.

[KramerDSP]

If we crack 20% and third place, I will be happy. Gingrich will probably defeat Romney in SC and then FLA. Santorum and Perry will drop out, which makes it a three man race. The people disgusted with Newt frigging Gingrich and the biggest flip-flopper in modern American Politics, Mitt Romney, will have no choice but to make Ron Paul their protest vote. My concern is if Gingrich lasts all the way to the end, and he + Romney have 7/10th of all the delegates. They will make a deal with each other. Obama and Clinton warred, but Clinton became SoS.

I know things don't look all that great, but I am reminded of this video:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Z6GnUTVAF0

We are on the right side of history ANYWAY. Keep plugging along and spreading the message. Gingrich WILL fall. Romney's tax records WILL be revealed. And Ron Paul WILL be remembered as the tortoise.

[opinionatedfool]

Whatever happens in SC, it's just a battle. Ron Paul will win the war one way or another.

[Schiff_FTW]

15% is still 4 times what he got in 2008, if he can stay in the top tier that would be great, hopefully Newt will be able to stop the "Romney is invincible" mantra

[QWDC]

Interesting, so what do you think is better long term, a 3 or 2 man race?

[nowwearefree]

the most important thing is Ron Paul gets 3rd and close to 20 percent or over 20 percent

on the other hand, i am not sure who i want to win the SC primary, because I think newt is really really evil, so evil that it makes Mitt looks like a Saint
im much more okay with Mitt than Newt
Mitt is just another fake politician but Newt is truly dangerous and evil
there has never been any politicians i despise or hate more than Newt

i could never even hang out with people that support Newt, the ignorance with those people is really disgusting to me
if Newt wins, i will seriously never visit SC

[SaulPaulinsky]

This is awesome news! If Gingrich can beat Romney in SC, he could probably put up a fight in FL as well, which will really hurt the perception of Romney as the inevitable nominee. It will also lead to tons of money being funneled into the coffers of a guy who wants nothing more than to kill Romney. I never thought I'd say this, but go Newt!

I've been saying this for weeks.

Newt doesn't figure to do well in the February contests (and Washington in March but before something-less-than-Super-Tuesday) and isn't on the ballot in VA as we know.

Newt breaking up Mitt's momentum with a win in SC and a strong performance or win in FL would be great news. Then hopefully Paul can finish a strong 2nd or in the best of all worlds a win in NV, win ME and MN and then we've got a real race in AZ and WA before March 6.

[kill the banks]

yup , hoping cayman bank accounts hitt mitt too ... pray for a rested and forceful Ron in debate and the stars align

[69360]

Interesting, so what do you think is better long term, a 3 or 2 man race?

I'm not giving up yet, but I'm getting the feeling it doesn't matter. Perry is done. Gingrich looks like he's getting a bomb dropped on him. It seems like what's left of Santorum support and the Gingrich people are going to Romney. I just don't see signs of enough people moving to Ron to beat Romney.

[UK4Paul]

Not even close. Romney is starting to run away with it.

Gingrich 32% Romney 29% Paul 15% Santorum 11% doesn't sound like Romney running away with it.

But of course, we'll have to see what happens with the "Bitter Ex-Wife" story.

[RickyJ]

the most important thing is Ron Paul gets 3rd and close to 20 percent or over 20 percent

on the other hand, i am not sure who i want to win the SC primary, because I think newt is really really evil, so evil that it makes Mitt looks like a Saint
im much more okay with Mitt than Newt
Mitt is just another fake politician but Newt is truly dangerous and evil
there has never been any politicians i despise or hate more than Newt

i could never even hang out with people that support Newt, the ignorance with those people is really disgusting to me
if Newt wins, i will seriously never visit SC

I agree with you Newt sucks and his supporters are brain dead. But, the rest besides Paul are just as bad, they are just much better at hiding their flaws than Newt.

[RickyJ]

Ideally we want grinch to win and then plummit after his exwifes interview

Ideally we want Paul to win! Forget this poll, the only one that counts will be on election day.

[ONUV]

Newt is McCain redux 2012. He WILL win the nomination if we don't do something about it fast.

not every state is as backwards as south carolina.

[69360]

Gingrich 32% Romney 29% Paul 15% Santorum 11% doesn't sound like Romney running away with it.

But of course, we'll have to see what happens with the "Bitter Ex-Wife" story.

Romney is almost or more than double everyone else in the national RCP average. I'm not saying give up or doom and gloom, but if he wins SC which it looks like he will and FL, which it looks like he will, well history shows it's virtually impossible to recover from that and the others are going to drop out. The msm influence at that point is going to just be unbelievable on the the average voter that Romney is the nominee.

I wish I was seeing signs that people were moving from the other anti-Romneys to Ron, but I'm just not.

[culvereric]

How credible is this poll?

[RickyJ]

I'm not giving up yet, but I'm getting the feeling it doesn't matter. Perry is done. Gingrich looks like he's getting a bomb dropped on him. It seems like what's left of Santorum support and the Gingrich people are going to Romney. I just don't see signs of enough people moving to Ron to beat Romney.

It does look bad for Paul now, but with support growing for him everyday in SC he has a shot to at least have a strong third, possibly second place. That will keep him in the race and give more voters in other states a chance to hear his message. Whatever happens we can't give up, there is no alternative to Paul for us, we have to fight till the very end, the nation is literally in the balance, we win or the USA is finished.

[Lord Xar]

Gingrich 32% Romney 29% Paul 15% Santorum 11% doesn't sound like Romney running away with it.

But of course, we'll have to see what happens with the "Bitter Ex-Wife" story.

Well, the issue might be that the support that newt took from Santorum returns to him.. and if Gingrich doesn't sour 15% then he could beat Paul and Paul coming in 4th wouldn't be good.

We need him to pound it out tomorrow and score a home-run.

[JJ2]

Ideally we want grinch to win and then plummit after his exwifes interview

Yes, that's why Drudge ruined us. Newt will split with Santorum, Romney will win, and Paul will be 4th. :(

[Student Of Paulism]

Yea, Newt is truly a lunatic, no qn about it. It's thermonuclear war in a week once that sack of puss gets in.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iN1FqsH-Uo

[Marky]

I think it’s actually bad if Newt wins. They have been trying to frame this as a 2 man race between Mitt and Newt, and a win or good showing in SC would just reinforce that. We need to be the sole anti-Romney option, and Newt needs to drop out asap to do so.

[JJ2]

Well, the issue might be that the support that newt took from Santorum returns to him.. and if Gingrich doesn't sour 15% then he could beat Paul and Paul coming in 4th wouldn't be good.

Yep. That's exactly what will happen. If only the story hadn't been leaked to Drudge.

[abstrusezincate]

This could work out pretty nicely. Newt has really taken the winds away from Santorum, and if he gets destroyed, those votes may dissipate. Good for Romney, obviously, but it gets us to the theoretical two way race.

[nowwearefree]

I agree with you Newt sucks and his supporters are brain dead. But, the rest besides Paul are just as bad, they are just much better at hiding their flaws than Newt.
i guess i have to disagree with you on that
mitt or perry or even santorum, are not on the same level as newt when it comes to evil
mitt at least admit he flip flops, but newt's hypocrisy is really unbelievable even when he got caught he still acts like if he is the saint

anyway its pointless as we should all be supporting dr paul and let the campaign decide what the strategy is
but i really cannot stand seeing newt , it literally makes me feel sick

[SaulPaulinsky]

Romney is almost or more than double everyone else in the national RCP average. I'm not saying give up or doom and gloom, but if he wins SC which it looks like he will and FL, which it looks like he will, well history shows it's virtually impossible to recover from that and the others are going to drop out. The msm influence at that point is going to just be unbelievable on the the average voter that Romney is the nominee.

I wish I was seeing signs that people were moving from the other anti-Romneys to Ron, but I'm just not.

We were fighting against history when Paul finished 3rd in Iowa, considering winning NH was an impossibility unless Romney for some reason had to leave the race (maybe a sea monster ate his "ice cream" or something). Only McGovern has ever lost those two states and won a party nomination on either side in the modern era of primary elections (since Iowa became the first contest, basically), and he finished 2nd in both. No one's ever finished below 2nd in one and gotten the nomination without a first place in the other.

Fortunately the primary schedule is more favorable than usual to coming from behind.

[UK4Paul]

Romney is almost or more than double everyone else in the national RCP average. I'm not saying give up or doom and gloom, but if he wins SC which it looks like he will and FL, which it looks like he will, well history shows it's virtually impossible to recover from that and the others are going to drop out. The msm influence at that point is going to just be unbelievable on the the average voter that Romney is the nominee.

I wish I was seeing signs that people were moving from the other anti-Romneys to Ron, but I'm just not.

Unfortunately, I agree with you... because of the way the Establishment Media works. They create the self-fulfilling prophecy... "Oh, he's won 3 states... therefore he's effectively the nominee!"

This is why it would be better if Gingrich won SC... at least it would break the self-fulfilling prophecy meme.

I think part of the problem is that Ron's positions are not clearly understood by probably 90-95% of the population. The longer this campaign goes on, the more that will change.

[SaulPaulinsky]

I think it’s actually bad if Newt wins. They have been trying to frame this as a 2 man race between Mitt and Newt, and a win or good showing in SC would just reinforce that. We need to be the sole anti-Romney option, and Newt needs to drop out asap to do so.

I don't think Newt will do well in states like Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, Colorado, Washington. IMO Paul has to win 3 of those -- the two not bordering Deseret being most likely IMO.

[JJ2]

We were fighting against history when Paul finished 3rd in Iowa, considering winning NH was an impossibility unless Romney for some reason had to leave the race (maybe a sea monster ate his "ice cream" or something). Only McGovern has ever lost those two states and won a party nomination on either side in the modern era of primary elections (since Iowa became the first contest, basically), and he finished 2nd in both. No one's ever finished below 2nd in one and gotten the nomination without a first place in the other.

Actually, Bill Clinton did in '92.

[nowwearefree]

It does look bad for Paul now, but with support growing for him everyday in SC he has a shot to at least have a strong third, possibly second place. That will keep him in the race and give more voters in other states a chance to hear his message. Whatever happens we can't give up, there is no alternative to Paul for us, we have to fight till the very end, the nation is literally in the balance, we win or the USA is finished.
its done in SC in my opinion
i really think the campaign should have rallied in the college and bring up the young people
i think they originally plan not to have any hope with SC , yet the polls were surprising good and therefore they decide to do some campaign here
but by that time, its kind of too late
oh well, a strong 3rd is much much better than expectations, its SC people, SOUTH freaking CAROLINA

[SaulPaulinsky]

Yep. That's exactly what will happen. If only the story hadn't been leaked to Drudge.

Ergo, the source of the leak wants Romney to win?

[JJ2]

Ergo, the source of the leak wants Romney to win?

Yes, definitely. Obama wants Romney.

[69360]

Has anyone ever won the first 4 primaries and not been the nominee?

[SaulPaulinsky]

Actually, Bill Clinton did in '92.

Technically true, but you had local favorites running in both IA and NH. So while I'll accept that I overlooked that and I was wrong and appreciate the correction, I'll also say there's a good reason why I didn't recall it -- because it was anomalous and unlike any other case.

In any event, it's been even harder to come back historically for a Republican, but again, different timeline this year.

EDIT TO ADD: Clinton had a ridiculously stacked Super Tuesday II with a ton of southern states that he won convincingly (like 60-70%) of the vote. Can't see Paul winning anywhere by that kind of margin in this race, so just going to be that much more of a battle to grind out results. Six different candidates won primaries in 1992. I thought it was five, but forgot about Perot winning the pointless North Dakota primary.

[mport1]

Newt is BY FAR the worse candidate out of everybody (Republican and Democrat). How are people falling for his crap?

[Schiff_FTW]

Considering how unorthodox of a candidate Ron Paul is, I think we still have a remarkably decent chance to pull off a victory. Realistically, this is a pretty good place to be in at this point. Ron Paul got just 3.7% of the South Carolina GOP primary vote in 2008.

[pulp8721]

So looking back the previous poll
Gingrich 32 (+11)
Romney 29 (-3)
Paul 15 (+1)
Santorum 11 (-2)
Perry 3 (-2)

Newt took Romney votes, Santorum voters, Perry voters, and some undecideds.

[bbwarfield]

any cross tabs yet? who is gingrich 2nd choices? is that were we can pick up? hes gonna implode tomorrow..... but only Ron Paul and Perry getting his 2nd choices would be good for us.

[seawolf]

In 2008 Ron only received 3.62% of the Republican Primary Vote in South Carolina. The Insider Advantage Poll showing Paul at 15% is over a 400% improvement. Not good enough yet, but a big improvement in 4 years and shows just how far the Liberty Movement has come!!! (even in the Deep South)

[RDM]

not every state is as backwards as south carolina.

Actually I watched the Jimmy Carter interview tonight on Piers Morgan. Carter said Gingrich knew what he was doing with that crowd the other night, being he's a southerner and so is Carter. Carter said he was using racially charged language just subtle enough to appease the all white crowd that was in the audience. Carter said Gingrich crafted his words just right for the audience he was talking to. Carter also said, that tactic only works in parts of the south and it will not work elsewhere.

[Canderson]

Im confused. I don't know if I want Gingrich or Romney to win. Do you think its more beneficial to us to be in a two man race with Romney, or to have a split vote among everybody if Gingrich wns SC and it turns out Santorum won Iowa???

[Schiff_FTW]

Im confused. I don't know if I want Gingrich or Romney to win. Do you think its more beneficial to us to be in a two man race with Romney, or to have a split vote among everybody if Gingrich wns SC and it turns out Santorum won Iowa???

I think a split vote is clearly better for us. Romney is coming dangerously close to running away with this whole thing. Anything that interrupts the narrative that he is the inevitable nominee is good.

[Blue_Merle]

Newt is McCain redux 2012. He WILL win the nomination if we don't do something about it fast.


Did you not hear about the interview that is airing tomorrow? Apparently it will kill his political career.

LOL spoken like a true buffoon that believes everything he reads online. Guffaw!

[J_White]

a) romney wins, Santorum and Perry drop out (hopefully), Newt second and the race becomes a two man race between Newt Romney, while the media tries to pump Romney as the nominee but Newt might hang around till super tuesday !!
b) Newt wins and slows Romney momentum, and the media declares Newt as the greatest Anti Romney to bless us lesser mortals !!

donno which one is better !

[misterx]

Did you not hear about the interview that is airing tomorrow? Apparently it will kill his political career.

That slug has more lives than a cat. He has to be taken out of the race now. If the interview wasn't released until after SC the people would forget about it by the next vote if it was anything short of him raping and killing babies. Besides, one way or another, we need a two man race after SC. I think Paul's only realistic shot at the nomination is to get first or a very close second in SC. If he comes in third, there's virtually no chance after that. At least if Newt is destroyed we can get a strong second and still have an outside shot after everyone else drops out.

[dfalken]

That slug has more lives than a cat. He has to be taken out of the race now. If the interview wasn't released until after SC the people would forget about it by the next vote if it was anything short of him raping and killing babies. Besides, one way or another, we need a two man race after SC. I think Paul's only realistic shot at the nomination is to get first or a very close second in SC. If he comes in third, there's virtually no chance after that. At least if Newt is destroyed we can get a strong second and still have an outside shot after everyone else drops out.

I still don't understand how we have a shot in a 2 man race when the polls show Romney basically tripling our percentage? Hopefully after Newt is destroyed tomorrow some bombshell drops on Mitt and we end up winning by default.

[misterx]

I still don't understand how we have a shot in a 2 man race when the polls show Romney basically tripling our percentage? Hopefully after Newt is destroyed tomorrow some bombshell drops on Mitt and we end up winning by default.

The votes from the other candidates have to go somewhere when they drop out. In a two man race Romney has to get 50% of the vote. It's hard to see how he does that in most places if there is a viable alternative.

[dfalken]

The votes from the other candidates have to go somewhere when they drop out. In a two man race Romney has to get 50% of the vote. It's hard to see how he does that in most places if there is a viable alternative.

I most definitely hope you are right but have you seen the polls for a head to head match up? He is killing us in all of them 60 something to 20 something percent. Seems like a much harder task to overcome that deficit than what we face right now.

[69360]

The votes from the other candidates have to go somewhere when they drop out. In a two man race Romney has to get 50% of the vote. It's hard to see how he does that in most places if there is a viable alternative.

The polling is dismal in a Ron v. Romney race. Things could change, but it's not looking good.

[bbwarfield]

We need newt for Florida... Why? Cause you can win the nomination taking second in every state... But not if the same person takes first every time....... Even if he places third behind Romney a few times Ron can win delegates if he makes it through the first voting round.... I don't have inside information but I've been involved with enough elections to know Newt is the best spoiler ever... He can rise in the polls quickly and die even faster.... He has the ability to recover but always to late to get the voters... He should win SC and do okay in Florida.... Hell implode at some point but by then has denied Romney a first ballot victory

[The_Ruffneck]

whats the verdict - gingrich win or romney win preferred here?
personally i think gingrich win would be better for us