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Tyler_Durden
01-18-2012, 03:02 PM
Romney 33 (-4)
Gingrich 23 (+5)
Santorum 16 (-3)
Paul 13 (+1)

change since last CNN Poll

Romney slips, Newt gains in new CNN/TIME/ORC poll of likely GOP voters in SC: Romney 33%, Gingrich 23%, Santorum 16%, Paul 13%, Perry 6%

Updated: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/18/cnntime-poll-race-for-south-carolina-tightening/?on.cnn=2

SchleckBros
01-18-2012, 03:02 PM
Romney 33
Gingrich 23
Santorum 16
Paul 13
Perry 6

libertygrl
01-18-2012, 03:03 PM
F***!! What the hell are those people drinking over there???

joshnorris14
01-18-2012, 03:04 PM
F***!! What the hell are those people drinking over there???

Southern Comfort

alucard13mmfmj
01-18-2012, 03:04 PM
hmmmm oh cmon... worse than santorum? we really need that strong 2nd place finish to buffer florida. i hope south carolinians wont let us down.

jersdream
01-18-2012, 03:04 PM
Only a one point increase from their poll 12 days ago for Paul. January 13th to 17th they polled...obviously I think the debate stumped growth.

jersdream
01-18-2012, 03:05 PM
We got a one point increase from 12 days ago...probably would have been more, but I'm sure the debate hurt us in part..

bluesc
01-18-2012, 03:06 PM
We got a one point increase from 12 days ago...probably would have been more, but I'm sure the debate hurt us in part..

Yep.

SchleckBros
01-18-2012, 03:06 PM
"likely GOP voters"

Anyone know if they included Indies?

Lord Xar
01-18-2012, 03:08 PM
It is an open primary. Just including repubs only is dishonest.

AngryCanadian
01-18-2012, 03:09 PM
Well Paul better do well on the CNN Debate.

ronpaulfollower999
01-18-2012, 03:09 PM
Fox News was pumping a Gingrich surge this afternoon.

AngryCanadian
01-18-2012, 03:09 PM
Does South Caroline Know Newt was a Draft Dodger?
So why vote for that lying war monger?

low preference guy
01-18-2012, 03:10 PM
It is an open primary. Just including repubs only is dishonest.

they do it to hurt Paul, just like they did in Iowa.

KingNothing
01-18-2012, 03:10 PM
"likely GOP voters"

Anyone know if they included Indies?

It always does, if the state is Open. ...unless they do stupid crap like CNN did in their second to last poll before the Iowa caucus.

PastaRocket848
01-18-2012, 03:11 PM
bad, bad, bad. not looking good in SC, and if it isn't looking good there, it doesn't bode well for anywhere else. that debate hurt.

RonPaul101.com
01-18-2012, 03:11 PM
Paul need to hit at Santorum. Why would SC follow the mistakes of Iowa and vote for this minor-leager who "may" have a couple of weeks left in this election?

We need third as a minimum, 4th would be awful. There will be time to tackle Mitt and Newt after FL, but we must tread above Perry and Santorum at least.

jersdream
01-18-2012, 03:11 PM
About 25% of those polled were not republicans.

Edward
01-18-2012, 03:12 PM
"likely GOP voters"

Anyone know if they included Indies?

The poll (http://swampland.time.com/topline-results-of-jan-13-17-2012-cnntimeorc-poll/) surveyed 1,508 adults, including 472 registered Republicans, by telephone between Jan. 13 and 17 in Florida, and identified 391 likely voters. In South Carolina, a total of 1,525 adults were interviewed over the same time period and 505 likely voters were identified. All respondents were asked about their registration status and basic demographics, and the sample was weighted to reflect statewide Census figures for gender, race, age, education and region of the state. The results carry a sampling error of +/-5 percentage points in Florida and +/-4.5 points in South Carolina.

thoughtomator
01-18-2012, 03:12 PM
relax, there's another debate between now and then and still plenty of campaigning to do... the impact of the Romney file is just beginning to be felt, and people will soon remember who Gingrich is

ZENemy
01-18-2012, 03:13 PM
I dont get it? I guess I can still see Romney being up there but the others are pure dogshit, I don't get how Paul can be THIS low?

Every video I see of Newt and Santorum they are getting badgered and booed.

kahless
01-18-2012, 03:14 PM
Fox News was pumping a Gingrich surge this afternoon.

I wonder how Foxnews gets around campaign finance laws in pimping their former employees Gingrich and Santorum. Both were on FNC payroll for a number of years as consultants.

Tyler_Durden
01-18-2012, 03:14 PM
It always does, if the state is Open. ...unless they do stupid crap like CNN did in their second to last poll before the Iowa caucus.

I updated the OP with the results:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/18/cnntime-poll-race-for-south-carolina-tightening/?on.cnn=2

thoughtomator
01-18-2012, 03:18 PM
OK this is another dirty trick

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/01/18/topstate4.pdf

All voters in the sample were 50 and older.

FreeTraveler
01-18-2012, 03:18 PM
We'll pass Santorum before the vote. Even Nate Silver says: "Yeah, I agree that the Santorumentum ship has probably sailed."

This also doesn't include the bump Ron will get from several state senate endorsements.

tbone717
01-18-2012, 03:18 PM
I am usually pessimistic, but this doesn't look good at all. I would have thought that between ads, and the endorsements we would have gained some ground. And considering we are essentially skipping FL, how does a poor showing in SC give us any momentum going into the 4 caucuses following FL?

freejack
01-18-2012, 03:20 PM
OK this is another dirty trick

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/01/18/topstate4.pdf

All voters in the sample were 50 and older.

Hmm you're right. WTH is up with that?

Sean
01-18-2012, 03:21 PM
Media is not giving Paul any positive focus right now. The campaign really needs to put out a lot of ads to combat this. One good thing is after SC two of the candidates should be dropping out.

PastaRocket848
01-18-2012, 03:22 PM
I am usually pessimistic, but this doesn't look good at all. I would have thought that between ads, and the endorsements we would have gained some ground. And considering we are essentially skipping FL, how does a poor showing in SC give us any momentum going into the 4 caucuses following FL?

it doesn't. if we come in 4th in SC, then we can effectively transition into "movement" mode, away from "campaign" mode. especially if romney wins, and he will presumably win florida as well, this thing is over. if newt pulls sc and we do atleast respectably well (3rd or better), we could take the fight to florida, but frankly i don't see it going much further than that regardless. we needed 2nd place in SC to cement our status as the "anti-mitt campaign". doesn't look like it's happening.

sad but true.

Badger Paul
01-18-2012, 03:22 PM
I think a strong third place showing (near 20 percent) with Gingrich beating Romney would be a good result on Saturday. Even better would be winning congressional district to win three delegates.

jersdream
01-18-2012, 03:25 PM
OK this is another dirty trick

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/01/18/topstate4.pdf

All voters in the sample were 50 and older.

No, they weren't. But there wasn't a significant enough amount to do cross tabs on those less than 50 for them to cross tabulate that group.

Paul does 9% with those 50 and older....but has 13% overall.....

low preference guy
01-18-2012, 03:25 PM
i think it's about time we win a primary.

Austin
01-18-2012, 03:26 PM
They included independents:

Romney: 32%
Gingrich: 19%
Paul: 19%
Santorum: 10%
Perry: 9%

jersdream
01-18-2012, 03:27 PM
Hmm you're right. WTH is up with that?


Wrong.

No, they weren't. But there wasn't a significant enough amount to do cross tabs on those less than 50 for them to cross tabulate that group.

Paul does 9% with those 50 and older....but has 13% overall.....

If everyone was 50+ then Ron would get 9% in the poll.

Tyler_Durden
01-18-2012, 03:28 PM
EVERYONE: If Facebook is an indication of a Possible Tipping Point, then the Campaign/Grassroots REALLY needs to Hammer Home on SOPA/PIPA
Please see the Embedded posts Here:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?352613-1000-New-Facebook-Likes-in-the-Past-1.5-Hours!!!!!!!

freejack
01-18-2012, 03:34 PM
Wrong.

No, they weren't. But there wasn't a significant enough amount to do cross tabs on those less than 50 for them to cross tabulate that group.

Paul does 9% with those 50 and older....but has 13% overall.....

If everyone was 50+ then Ron would get 9% in the poll.

If the <50 year olds were that insignificant, I don't understand how it can account for a third of his votes unless he received a huge majority from that group.

seawolf
01-18-2012, 03:35 PM
Politico and other news media are reporting that Ron Paul and his Campaign are really not trying to win in South Carolina and are looking beyond the Palmetto State. Basically, Ron Paul is just going thru the motions here.

They cite the 4 days that Ron took off after New Hampshire, and the fact that he has only had three scheduled events this week in the State thus far.

Sadly, I am afraid that time away hurt. Four days is far too long. While we were never going to win South Carolina anyway I am afraid third place may be slipping away as a result.

Let's hope the Campaign knows what they are doing this week!!! I guess we will find out Saturday evening!!!






Let' hope the Campaign knows what

Diurdi
01-18-2012, 03:35 PM
CNN did the exact same thing in Iowa, polling only Republicans.

This created the Santorum "surge".

dfalken
01-18-2012, 03:37 PM
likely GOP means everyone. If they said GOP registered then that would mean GOP registered.


It is an open primary. Just including repubs only is dishonest.

SilentBull
01-18-2012, 03:37 PM
EVERYONE: If Facebook is an indication of a Possible Tipping Point, then the Campaign/Grassroots REALLY needs to Hammer Home on SOPA/PIPA
Please see the Embedded posts Here:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?352613-1000-New-Facebook-Likes-in-the-Past-1.5-Hours!!!!!!!

Agree.

Vet_from_cali
01-18-2012, 03:38 PM
I'm really starting to hate these polls they put out.

jersdream
01-18-2012, 03:38 PM
If the <50 year olds were that insignificant, I don't understand how it can account for a third of his votes unless he received a huge majority from that group.

The under 45 last time in SC GOP Primary was about 1/3rd of the electorate...add on the 45-50 it is probably 35-40%...

They don't release the % of age they polled, so it is hard to tell. What is insignificant was up to them. It would be odd that they wouldn't release the cross tabs on that, but to say that they only polled 50 year olds + is a blatant lie and misreading of the data.

Either way Ron must be doing well with the under 50 vote.....but there is no way to tell how well because we don't know how many of each were polled, but the fact is they did poll people under 50.

jersdream
01-18-2012, 03:39 PM
CNN did the exact same thing in Iowa, polling only Republicans.

This created the Santorum "surge".

They polled independents...25% of them were independent. Hardly the same thing.

hardrightedge
01-18-2012, 03:41 PM
Cnn is acting like Paul isn't even in the picture...I'm really tired of this bullshit...

rb3b3
01-18-2012, 03:45 PM
why is there soo much disparity between arg recent poll and the more recent ones like this one? arg had paul at 20% in south carolina! i dont understand our fellow americans i really dont??? how can anyone in this country back a guy who is for NDAA, and his top contributor is goldman sachs!! newt is a chicken hawk!! how can americans not see right through these people????? i dont understand this!!!! i mean im sure about 80% of usa has no idea what the ndaa even is and whats sad is that these people do not see their rights being taken away little by little everyday.. its driving me absolutely crazy!! the only thing i can hope for now is that the media again is being biased and they now are showing up in the pre primary polls!?? i just dont understand how arg has paul at 20% and now all these new polls have him in 4th!!! WAKE UP AMERICA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! VOTE RON PAUL 2012!!!! OUR KIDS AND THEIR KIDS AND SO ON NEED TO TAKE AMERICA BACK FROM THESE MOBSTERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!im soo sick of this and i need someone in here to calm me down please!!! im really losing it right now!

Student Of Paulism
01-18-2012, 03:45 PM
Yea, its disappointing what happened here. All that great momentum coming out of NH, getting the endorsement, etc, really should have helped a lot. But the 4 days off (which i knew the media would spin as 'ron not caring or giving a shit'), skipping Huck's forum, not going to any of the big schools like Clemson or USC, and then getting railed in the debate just really killed our chances for getting second place now.

People can get on me all they want, but lets face it, with the country being at a tipping point, and how Ron's message needs to be exposed as much as possible, and this being his final chance, taking time off and skipping over events was just a terrible move. The golden rule in campaigning, especially for Ron's, is never give anyone any ammunition to use. They are going to look for and dig up any little thing they can on him or what they believe his intentions are, and the campaign basically played right in their hands by not going all out when NH was over. With only under 2 weeks between primaries, you just have to get out there and let it all hang out as much as possible, not take 4 days off like that. All of this really took the wind out of any sails we may have had.

FL is already over, so....eh, it's anyones guess where this is going to go at this point. I just feel like im in limbo right now, and everything seems foggy on where things are going.

Paul or not at all
01-18-2012, 03:52 PM
did they poll anyone under 50?

devil21
01-18-2012, 03:58 PM
http://phone.ronpaul2012.com

If you don't like the massaged poll results then do something about it.


(and if you're still paying any attention to this "jersdream" person's posts, stop)

socal
01-18-2012, 03:59 PM
No, they weren't. But there wasn't a significant enough amount to do cross tabs on those less than 50 for them to cross tabulate that group.

Paul does 9% with those 50 and older....but has 13% overall.....
That's not the way I read it. Paul: 11% Repub, 19% Indep. All I see is N/A for Under 50.


http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/01/18/topstate4.pdf

newRonPaulfan
01-18-2012, 04:01 PM
Yea, its disappointing what happened here. All that great momentum coming out of NH, getting the endorsement, etc, really should have helped a lot. But the 4 days off (which i knew the media would spin as 'ron not caring or giving a shit'), skipping Huck's forum, not going to any of the big schools like Clemson or USC, and then getting railed in the debate just really killed our chances for getting second place now.

People can get on me all they want, but lets face it, with the country being at a tipping point, and how Ron's message needs to be exposed as much as possible, and this being his final chance, taking time off and skipping over events was just a terrible move. The golden rule in campaigning, especially for Ron's, is never give anyone any ammunition to use. They are going to look for and dig up any little thing they can on him or what they believe his intentions are, and the campaign basically played right in their hands by not going all out when NH was over. With only under 2 weeks between primaries, you just have to get out there and let it all hang out as much as possible, not take 4 days off like that. All of this really took the wind out of any sails we may have had.

FL is already over, so....eh, it's anyones guess where this is going to go at this point. I just feel like im in limbo right now, and everything seems foggy on where things are going.

Yes, I expect some people will reply and call you a troll for criticizing, but you're right on. I'm sure his campaign has not even prepped him for the debate tomorrow - how to respond to the AP hitpiece about flying first class in a STRONG, cohesive matter, perhaps even turning it into an attack on another candidate instead or the media; probably hasn't let him know the media will bring up the newsletters that TNR 'just uncovered', or any of the other questions. Perhaps that is the problem with having an adviser who is married into the family (and who was seen with Gingrich!) - they can't give any real criticism BECAUSE of their relationship, where someone else could look in Ron's eyes and tell him to get his shit together.

OH well. Four - eight years of Obamaney. I'm not sure why people think tomorrow will be fair. John King is Dana Bash's fucking shit husband . They HATE Paul SOOOOOOOOO much!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lord Xar
01-18-2012, 04:05 PM
So, when is the next PPP or ARG Poll? These CNN polls leave a lot to be desired.

Student Of Paulism
01-18-2012, 04:06 PM
OH well. Four - eight years of Obamaney. I'm not sure why people think tomorrow will be fair. John King is Dana Bash's fucking shit husband . They HATE Paul SOOOOOOOOO much!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hah yea. Im sure John will say 'Dr Paul, some people tend to be worried about your FP, just like i am....OOPS I MEAN, just like the other candidates here....' :D

LandonCook
01-18-2012, 04:07 PM
Fox News was pumping a Gingrich surge this afternoon.

I hope they do. There need to be more questions about Romney before we reach NV.

ohgodno
01-18-2012, 04:14 PM
The campaign didn't grab hold of the momentum after NH and went dark. The momentum is gone, plain and simple — fundraising is getting tougher because we're all strapped.

I think the campaign dropped the ball here - some of it has to do with manipulation by the establishment GOP: I wonder who told Hunt to drop out on the day Dr. Paul got the Davis endorsement (second biggest endorsement said FOX after DeMint), I also wonder why Palin came out for Grinch when Dr. Paul got more endorsements from Tea Party affiliated senators. They took away media coverage with "bigger" stories, slowing momentum.

For every counter-punch we've thrown, the establishment have thrown a haymaker our way. There's a palpable sense that momentum is slowing considerably — where is the energy that we had in NH?? It's gone now, and the polls are reflecting this.

A HUGE push is needed for SC to keep Dr. Paul relevant, I hope there's enough time to regain relevancy. The establishment wants Grinch to win here and in FL, they want to avoid Paul vs. Romney at all cost…based on the recent events (all the negative press, lack of press, lack of a presence in the state, the disappointing debate) they're sadly winning.

rb3b3
01-18-2012, 04:14 PM
Here is a brand new poll from 2012happens... this person poll for iowa and nh were pretty accurate, so maybe there is hope afterall????????? Maybe, just maybe the media once again is trying to get us to give up????? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJZzf4f3aP4

Michigan11
01-18-2012, 04:14 PM
We'll pass Santorum before the vote. Even Nate Silver says: "Yeah, I agree that the Santorumentum ship has probably sailed."

This also doesn't include the bump Ron will get from several state senate endorsements.

Great point. I don't think the polls can factor in all these key popular conservative state senator endorsements of late...

socal
01-18-2012, 04:16 PM
That's not the way I read it. Paul: 11% Repub, 19% Indep. All I see is N/A for Under 50.


http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/01/18/topstate4.pdf
Furthermore, with a SC sample size of 505 voters (page 3), that means there were 3/4 Repub (379 voters) and 1/4 Indep (126 voters). That comes from the 19% indep Paul supporters, 11% repub paul suporters, total of 13% Paul supporters (page 7). That's approximate because of rounding error in the percentages (11%, 13%, 19%).

newRonPaulfan
01-18-2012, 04:16 PM
Here is a brand new poll from 2012happens... this person poll for iowa and nh were pretty accurate, so maybe there is hope afterall????????? Maybe, just maybe the media once again is trying to get us to give up????? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJZzf4f3aP4

Sorry, but that guy polled that out of his ass. The first number says 29 and later it says 28. So which is it?

jersdream
01-18-2012, 04:19 PM
That's not the way I read it. Paul: 11% Repub, 19% Indep. All I see is N/A for Under 50.


http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/01/18/topstate4.pdf

Because you don't understand the cross tabs.

He has 9% with the over 50 population, it says N/A because they believed there wasn't a significant amount under 50 polled to do a cross tab on them, but just do the math OKAY.

If Ron is at 13% overall....but at 9% with over 50 people....how can the only people be polled be over 50. If that were the case, he would only have 9%....There had to be at least a certain amount under 50 polled, but we have two variables, so we can't figure that out.

Ron's numbers: 13% overall= (% of people polled over 50)*(9%-People over 50 picking Paul) + (% of people polled under 50)*(% of People under 50 picking Paul).

There is no way that everyone could be over 50 because he is at 13% overall, not 9% overall.

rb3b3
01-18-2012, 04:19 PM
Sorry, but that guy polled that out of his ass. The first number says 29 and later it says 28. So which is it?

maybe so, but like i said i followed this person during iowa and nh and his polls were pretty accurate to actual results.. im just trying to lighten the mood in this thread by showing you someones poll who has paul much higher then that the media shows.

jersdream
01-18-2012, 04:21 PM
http://phone.ronpaul2012.com

If you don't like the massaged poll results then do something about it.


(and if you're still paying any attention to this "jersdream" person's posts, stop)

For posting facts. I can actually analyze. You can't handle facts apparently.

People say they didn't poll people under 50, when that isn't possible. He is at 9% with the over 50 group, yet 13% overall. People can't read a poll, including yourself.

Also your unprovoked attack has been reported to the moderators.

ShaneEnochs
01-18-2012, 04:21 PM
I could have SWORN I saw a poll like a week ago that had us in second place with 20%.

jersdream
01-18-2012, 04:23 PM
I could have SWORN I saw a poll like a week ago that had us in second place with 20%.

There was one with us in 3rd place with 20% from American Research Group, which we all say is inaccurate. But, ARG isn't as bad as most believe.

But when you think about it 13% to 20% isn't that big of a difference, considering margin of error and the like.

hazek
01-18-2012, 04:24 PM
9% with the 50 and older crowd which will never change until the corporate media propaganda machine has them under it's spell and therefor Ron has ZERO chance.

I warned you but noooo, you knew better.

PastaRocket848
01-18-2012, 04:32 PM
there's definitely more than enough undue optimism around here. we spend as much time spinning facts as the faux news folks do...

Lord Xar
01-18-2012, 04:32 PM
Great point. I don't think the polls can factor in all these key popular conservative state senator endorsements of late...

These endoresments were barely mentioned in the news. How will the voter know or hear of them?
Do they email/call their constituents!

Evangelical_Protestant
01-18-2012, 04:40 PM
I think Paul will struggle until at least February 7th. I'm hopeful he can win all three states that day. He's going to struggle in the south, because they have a "mess with us and get a boot up your ass." kind of mentality. They are just gushing with pride in the southern states, and people like that are the hardest to reach.

Starting Feb 7th, we should all know if Paul stands a chance, but Super Tuesday in March is the big one, with the exception of Georgia and Mass., I'd say he can potentially win all of those states. But thats only if the message gets out.

Ron Paul pleases Christians, Muslims, athiest, young people, blacks, whites, hispanics, and pretty much anyone and everyone except elite Jews and false christians. Problem is...some of those groups don't know it yet. So keep spreading the message.

rb3b3
01-18-2012, 04:40 PM
here is an example of the avg above 50 year old voter.. this happened to me today... i have been boasting to my coffee guy about ron paul for the last week.. today he comes in and says to me... yeah your boy paul preaches no spending, but uses our tax money to take first class flights all over the country spending a whopping 50 grand of our money for his luxury!! some honest guy you got there......... now keep in mind i watched the msnbc video of them killing the ap article... so i asked my coffee guy oh yeah? where did you hear that bs from? and he replies its all over the news!! urghhhhhhhhhh

WD-NY
01-18-2012, 04:41 PM
This Grinch surge f'in sucks. Hopefully Romney's PAC goes nuclear in the next few days ... how people can get behind this chicken hawk after Ron knocked him out in Iowa (w/ serial hypocrisy) and NH ("I served" during the debate) is beyond me.

That said, I agree with others that Ron being virtually MIA in SC = WTF?? One of the big reasons to hit different local media markets is that all of the local news stations are going to cover your visit to their city/town/etc... right now, Ron = non-existant on the trail... which means non-existant in local media coverage.

At the very least, someone in the campaign should respond to our questions about why Ron isn't campaigning very hard in SC.

ohgodno
01-18-2012, 04:42 PM
These endoresments were barely mentioned in the news. How will the voter know or hear of them?
Do they email/call their constituents!

The endorsements got no play nationally - Huntsman "conveniently" dropped out around the announcement of the Davis endorsement - and Palin "endorsed" Newt, also "conveniently" around the time of the other Tea Party Senators endorsements. These happenings have the fingerprints of the national GOP all over them IMO.

Imaginos
01-18-2012, 04:44 PM
+5 Bump for that chicken-hawk piece of shit Gingrich?
What is wrong with these people?

newRonPaulfan
01-18-2012, 04:46 PM
This Grinch surge f'in sucks. Hopefully Romney's PAC goes nuclear in the next few days ... how people can get behind this chicken hawk after Ron knocked him out in Iowa (w/ serial hypocrisy) and NH ("I served" during the debate) is beyond me.

That said, I agree with others that Ron being virtually MIA in SC = WTF?? One of the big reasons to hit different local media markets is that all of the local news stations are going to cover your visit to their city/town/etc... right now, Ron = non-existant on the trail... which means non-existant in local media coverage.

At the very least, someone in the campaign should respond to our questions about why Ron isn't campaigning very hard in SC.

Don't hold your breath - which is a shame, considering how many of us have contributed, that there isn't SOME accountability for their MAJOR fuckup!

socal
01-18-2012, 04:51 PM
Because you don't understand the cross tabs.

He has 9% with the over 50 population, it says N/A because they believed there wasn't a significant amount under 50 polled to do a cross tab on them, but just do the math OKAY.

If Ron is at 13% overall....but at 9% with over 50 people....how can the only people be polled be over 50. If that were the case, he would only have 9%....There had to be at least a certain amount under 50 polled, but we have two variables, so we can't figure that out.

Ron's numbers: 13% overall= (% of people polled over 50)*(9%-People over 50 picking Paul) + (% of people polled under 50)*(% of People under 50 picking Paul).

There is no way that everyone could be over 50 because he is at 13% overall, not 9% overall.
OK, I get it now.

ohgodno
01-18-2012, 04:55 PM
IMO the campaign was banking on Romney winning SC with a 2nd or 3rd by Dr. Paul and most of the rest dropping out - to leave the race between Dr. Paul and Romney. This explains the lack of effort they're showing in SC.

This was a calculated risk based on what the polls were saying, but as we're seeing now—a misguided one. Newt is gaining more fake momentum and with the Palin "endorsement" all the faux Tea Party people will throw their weight behind Newt. This, coupled with all the negative press the campaign does a terrible job in addressing, means we've squandered all the positive mojo we had after NH.

The risk with not being competitive in SC (which is perceived to be conservative) is that Dr. Paul could be swallowed up by even less than the meager news coverage he gets anyway—evidence of this is the non-mention of the endorsements he's gotten from prominent members of the Tea Party in SC.

Kords21
01-18-2012, 05:03 PM
It's already a tough mountain to climb and I was hoping that Dr. Paul was going to come out in Monday's debate on fire after being "off" for 4 days, but he didn't. It could be that the crowd even before it started had made quite a vibe in the hall and it threw him off, who knows. Toss in the mini-blackout of Ron Paul's endorsements, poor debate and the apparent half-hearted campaign in SC, it's head scratching to say the least. I'm not giving up hope or anything, but I just don't understand the campaign strategy in this state at all. Florida is a lost cause, so it's going to be a while before we can really do well in another state and hopefully pick up momentum again. We had gingrich and the others pretty much down for the count, now they'll get even more media coverage/boost and we'll have to fight doubly hard. As I said, very confusing to say the least.

ohgodno
01-18-2012, 05:09 PM
It's already a tough mountain to climb and I was hoping that Dr. Paul was going to come out in Monday's debate on fire after being "off" for 4 days, but he didn't. It could be that the crowd even before it started had made quite a vibe in the hall and it threw him off, who knows. Toss in the mini-blackout of Ron Paul's endorsements, poor debate and the apparent half-hearted campaign in SC, it's head scratching to say the least. I'm not giving up hope or anything, but I just don't understand the campaign strategy in this state at all. Florida is a lost cause, so it's going to be a while before we can really do well in another state and hopefully pick up momentum again. We had gingrich and the others pretty much down for the count, now they'll get even more media coverage/boost and we'll have to fight doubly hard. As I said, very confusing to say the least.

I agree 100%.

cajuncocoa
01-18-2012, 05:15 PM
GOP and the media who carries their water have been pushing Newt very hard since NH.

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b133/BrAinPaiNt/tumblr_lpbha1ONCY1qltqnp.gif


I guess it's working.

devil21
01-18-2012, 05:17 PM
For posting facts. I can actually analyze. You can't handle facts apparently.

People say they didn't poll people under 50, when that isn't possible. He is at 9% with the over 50 group, yet 13% overall. People can't read a poll, including yourself.

Also your unprovoked attack has been reported to the moderators.

You're a negative drag on this forum and prove it day after day, regardless of what you post. Report that crybaby.

Your facts only support that the poll is accurate, even when they didnt even bother to report how many they polled under 50 years old. Your logic for whether is poll itself, given the parameters they used, is accurate is fine. I don't question that. Whether the poll is actually an accurate representation of SC voter sentiment is the issue and you're not looking at that at all. You seem to be carrying the water for the media and it's plain to see.

Mister Grieves
01-18-2012, 05:20 PM
F***!! What the hell are those people drinking over there???Judging by the crowd at the last debate, I'd say their own urine.

Justinfrom1776
01-18-2012, 05:25 PM
I just realized something: We're not doing well among idiots.. How can we cut into Romney, Newt, Perry and Santorum's strangle hold on the moron vote? So many of Dr. Paul's positions require the voter to think and be educated about the Constitution and American History.. How can we possibly delve into that demographic?

Lucille
01-18-2012, 05:27 PM
I kept thinking (hoping) the campaign was all, <<<HOLD>>>, and then they'd do a massive ad blitz for a few days before the primary.

He'll be on his game tomorrow night, and he'll surge again.

Think positively, guys! It matters (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?319969-We-become-what-we-think-about.)!

nc4rp
01-18-2012, 05:27 PM
OK this is another dirty trick

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/01/18/topstate4.pdf

All voters in the sample were 50 and older.


if thats true, then this is more fraud that just needs to be exposed

nc4rp
01-18-2012, 05:29 PM
+5 Bump for that chicken-hawk piece of shit Gingrich?
What is wrong with these people?

if the poll was for only over 50 they might identify with his surge + his age. i didnt read the pdf so i dont know if it was really over 50 only polled

pacelli
01-18-2012, 05:29 PM
hmmmm oh cmon... worse than santorum? we really need that strong 2nd place finish to buffer florida. i hope south carolinians wont let us down.

Hope the campaign has a plan.

The big show goes down tomorrow night. No pressure on President Paul or anything.

nc4rp
01-18-2012, 05:31 PM
For posting facts. I can actually analyze. You can't handle facts apparently.

People say they didn't poll people under 50, when that isn't possible. He is at 9% with the over 50 group, yet 13% overall. People can't read a poll, including yourself.

Also your unprovoked attack has been reported to the moderators.

could Ron have gotten a +4 bump lately among 50+

devil21
01-18-2012, 05:31 PM
if thats true, then this is more fraud that just needs to be exposed

Is the poll accurate? Probably accurate given the parameters they used to conduct it, which are never favorable to Paulites. Is it an accurate representation of Paul's overall support in SC? Probably not, since we've seen at least two previous polls with Ron at ~20%.

We go through this right before every debate and primary contest now. A poll is put out by CNN to justify the media surge that's taking place for a particular candidate that the establishment wants to push in front of Paul. They were successful with Santorum and failed with Huntsman. Now they're trying it with Gingrich. The question is whether the sheep will fall for it in SC.

socal
01-18-2012, 05:40 PM
Because you don't understand the cross tabs.

He has 9% with the over 50 population, it says N/A because they believed there wasn't a significant amount under 50 polled to do a cross tab on them, but just do the math OKAY.

If Ron is at 13% overall....but at 9% with over 50 people....how can the only people be polled be over 50. If that were the case, he would only have 9%....There had to be at least a certain amount under 50 polled, but we have two variables, so we can't figure that out.

Ron's numbers: 13% overall= (% of people polled over 50)*(9%-People over 50 picking Paul) + (% of people polled under 50)*(% of People under 50 picking Paul).

There is no way that everyone could be over 50 because he is at 13% overall, not 9% overall.

OK, I get it now.
One could in theory use your equation for each of the 8 candidates/others, come up 10 equations in 10 unknowns, and get the % of people polled under 50:

23% = (% of people polled 50 and over) * (23%) + (% of people polled under 50) * (% of People under 50 picking Gingrich),
13% = (% of people polled 50 and over) * (9%) + (% of people polled under 50) * (% of People under 50 picking Paul),
...
6% = (% of people polled 50 and over) * (8%) + (% of people polled under 50) * (% of People under 50 picking No Opinion),

100% = % of people polled 50 and over + % of people polled under 50
100% = % of people under 50 picking Gingrich + % of people under 50 picking Paul + ... + % of people under 50 picking No Opinion

Not worth the effort though.

Shane Harris
01-18-2012, 05:49 PM
newt got standing ovations at the debate. made me sick. doesnt surprise me from a state with lindsay graham. republican hypocrisy and chickenhawks run rampant along with mindless ignorance

devil21
01-18-2012, 05:54 PM
I kept thinking (hoping) the campaign was all, <<<HOLD>>>, and then they'd do a massive ad blitz for a few days before the primary.

He'll be on his game tomorrow night, and he'll surge again.

Think positively, guys! It matters (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?319969-We-become-what-we-think-about.)!

They did ask for a million bucks for SC and they've gotten way more, so in theory your post should be correct. If there's no ads running and other campaign stuff going on then we need to ask what happened to that money and why it isnt being spent in SC. Having said that, poll after poll shows that over half of voters don't decide on a candidate until the last two days. Hopefully they're timing things to take advantage of this.

Mike4Freedom
01-18-2012, 06:07 PM
The debate had hardly any effect, the only people that watch them besides us are the 60+ crowd which we poll weak with anyway.

The most likely cause of not being as high right now as we should be is probably because all the republican voters in south carolina have super brochures now.

So you figure take away one point for debate performance and also take away 1 - 2 points from the superbrochures.

We have 3 solid days left and a lot of ads are being run we are still ok.

jersdream
01-18-2012, 06:08 PM
5.3 million people watched the Fox News debate.

PaulConventionWV
01-18-2012, 06:18 PM
The under 45 last time in SC GOP Primary was about 1/3rd of the electorate...add on the 45-50 it is probably 35-40%...

They don't release the % of age they polled, so it is hard to tell. What is insignificant was up to them. It would be odd that they wouldn't release the cross tabs on that, but to say that they only polled 50 year olds + is a blatant lie and misreading of the data.

Either way Ron must be doing well with the under 50 vote.....but there is no way to tell how well because we don't know how many of each were polled, but the fact is they did poll people under 50.

That fact alone doesn't mean the sample wasn't skewed to reflect a more non-RP electorate. I find the fact that they won't tell us how many of each they polled pretty suspect.

socal
01-18-2012, 06:20 PM
delete

playpianoking
01-18-2012, 06:26 PM
Was no one polled under 50? It says N/A.

PaulConventionWV
01-18-2012, 06:27 PM
There was one with us in 3rd place with 20% from American Research Group, which we all say is inaccurate. But, ARG isn't as bad as most believe.

But when you think about it 13% to 20% isn't that big of a difference, considering margin of error and the like.

You seem to know enough about crosstabs, but how can you say 7% is not significant? Beyond me. You should know that it is very statistically significant. It would require about two margins of error to cross that gap, and that is very statistically unlikely to be the actual results.

Mike4Freedom
01-18-2012, 06:35 PM
5.3 million people watched the Fox News debate.

Lol, please

seawolf
01-18-2012, 06:40 PM
As several others have said on this thread, Ron cannot afford to take four days off between primaries that are 10 days apart if he really wants to show that he is in it to win and to show that he is electable!!!

I cannot believe that the Campaign did not see the Blowback coming from the Media on this!!!

Like I said the Politico Article today is just one of several I have seen on Ron's extended absence from South Carolina in the last few days.

opinionatedfool
01-18-2012, 07:39 PM
Southern Comfort

Southern Discomfort as Jon Stewart said.