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JasonM
01-18-2012, 02:40 AM
Romney, Paul, Santorum, Gingrich heading into Super Tuesday. Perry will drop after SC.

I think Santorum will hang in there cuz he's the last evangelical candidate standing while Newt stays in out of sheer spite for Romney. He's held on this long without much of a campaign and polling in the single digits for months. He's doing well enough in the polls that he feels he has a viable way forward. Only a national decline to single digits and/or a new news scandal about Gingrich will cause him to drop. Plus, he has it in for Mitt Romney now.

Prove me wrong guys

JJ2
01-18-2012, 02:51 AM
It looks like Newt will do well in SC, so he will stay in. Santorum (who is a Catholic, not an evangelical, btw) will probably drop out after FL at least.

J_White
01-18-2012, 02:58 AM
I think it might be a three man race on Super Tuesday - Romney, Paul and Gingrich.
Santorum should be out after FL, i feel.
IF Dr.Paul does well in the caucus states in Feb (any wins or all seconds), Gingrich might drop too, and I would like that !

cindy25
01-18-2012, 02:59 AM
all depends if Mitt hits Newt again

MJU1983
01-18-2012, 02:59 AM
Isn't Ron the only evangelical candidate? I think hypocrite is more appropriate for Santorum.

growburn13
01-18-2012, 03:02 AM
Personally I am not too optimistic Google Santorum will make it out of SC alive with his Right to Work voting record against him. His 2006 lobbyist payout record doesn't help either. But he has surprised me so far, granted the majority of the work has been done by the MSM pumping him up.

JasonM
01-18-2012, 03:08 AM
Isn't Ron the only evangelical candidate? I think hypocrite is more appropriate for Santorum.

Coming from an evangelical family myself, you must understand that the evangelical community is a very useful voting block of people due to a lot of fear mongering. First, they see Israel as a political entity prophesied by the Bible. This means it was ordained by God. Next, enemies of Israel will ultimately be slaughtered, so do you want your nation to throw their lot with Israel's enemies? No, so they want America to support Israel. Now Iran and all these crazy Muslims are railing for destruction of Israel and America, so they see the devil effectively in Iran and the Muslims. And they see this all culminating into a massive 100 million man army marching down on this tiny nation of Israel to ultimately meet a very bloody end.

If nothing else, they see Ron Paul as make this sort of thing happen sooner rather than later by saying things that are less than 100% belligerent towards Iran and radical Islam while ignoring the fact that the USA galvanized and helped train all these people in the first place!!

Throw in Ron Paul's less than homophobic sentiments and he's effectively disqualified from the evangelical primary, making Santorum win by default.

JasonM
01-18-2012, 03:11 AM
And if the government of Israel ever does anything bad, it's regarded as dandelions and rainbows compared to what the Muslim radicals would do (and the sad thing is they are right) and ignore the fact that two wrongs don't make a right.

speciallyblend
01-18-2012, 03:11 AM
it has been a 2 man race from the start, Ron Paul vs Status Quo!!

MJU1983
01-18-2012, 03:15 AM
Coming from an evangelical family myself, you must understand that the evangelical community is a very useful voting block of people due to a lot of fear mongering. First, they see Israel as a political entity prophesied by the Bible. This means it was ordained by God. Next, enemies of Israel will ultimately be slaughtered, so do you want your nation to throw their lot with Israel's enemies? No, so they want America to support Israel. Now Iran and all these crazy Muslims are railing for destruction of Israel and America, so they see the devil effectively in Iran and the Muslims. And they see this all culminating into a massive 100 million man army marching down on this tiny nation of Israel to ultimately meet a very bloody end.

If nothing else, they see Ron Paul as make this sort of thing happen sooner rather than later by saying things that are less than 100% belligerent towards Iran and radical Islam while ignoring the fact that the USA galvanized and helped train all these people in the first place!!

Throw in Ron Paul's less than homophobic sentiments and he's effectively disqualified from the evangelical primary, making Santorum win by default.

Wow, that's scary...summed up the SC debate audience to a T. :eek:

cindy25
01-18-2012, 03:24 AM
it has been a 2 man race from the start, Ron Paul vs Status Quo!!

true, but winning depends on who the status quo candidate ultimately is

John F Kennedy III
01-18-2012, 03:28 AM
Wow, that's scary...summed up the SC debate audience to a T. :eek:

Indeed.

John F Kennedy III
01-18-2012, 03:28 AM
Wow, that's scary...summed up the SC debate audience to a T. :eek:

Indeed.

JasonM
01-18-2012, 03:31 AM
Coming from an evangelical family myself, you must understand that the evangelical community is a very useful voting block of people due to a lot of fear mongering. First, they see Israel as a political entity prophesied by the Bible. This means it was ordained by God. Next, enemies of Israel will ultimately be slaughtered, so do you want your nation to throw their lot with Israel's enemies? No, so they want America to support Israel. Now Iran and all these crazy Muslims are railing for destruction of Israel and America, so they see the devil effectively in Iran and the Muslims. And they see this all culminating into a massive 100 million man army marching down on this tiny nation of Israel to ultimately meet a very bloody end.

If nothing else, they see Ron Paul as make this sort of thing happen sooner rather than later by saying things that are less than 100% belligerent towards Iran and radical Islam while ignoring the fact that the USA galvanized and helped train all these people in the first place!!

Throw in Ron Paul's less than homophobic sentiments and he's effectively disqualified from the evangelical primary, making Santorum win by default.



Wow, that's scary...summed up the SC debate audience to a T. :eek:

Glad you see what you mean. + Rep my post if others agree. :D

nowwearefree
01-18-2012, 03:43 AM
Coming from an evangelical family myself, you must understand that the evangelical community is a very useful voting block of people due to a lot of fear mongering. First, they see Israel as a political entity prophesied by the Bible. This means it was ordained by God. Next, enemies of Israel will ultimately be slaughtered, so do you want your nation to throw their lot with Israel's enemies? No, so they want America to support Israel. Now Iran and all these crazy Muslims are railing for destruction of Israel and America, so they see the devil effectively in Iran and the Muslims. And they see this all culminating into a massive 100 million man army marching down on this tiny nation of Israel to ultimately meet a very bloody end.

If nothing else, they see Ron Paul as make this sort of thing happen sooner rather than later by saying things that are less than 100% belligerent towards Iran and radical Islam while ignoring the fact that the USA galvanized and helped train all these people in the first place!!

Throw in Ron Paul's less than homophobic sentiments and he's effectively disqualified from the evangelical primary, making Santorum win by default.

I always wonder how I would feel if i am being brought up in an evangelical family (those typical irrational ones, of cause there are exceptions)
I feel so much pain even communicating with some of them when i used to volunteer in the hospital, they really don't have much logic
since i am volunteering, my job is to talk to some patient family etc, and i always try to be polite by agreeing with what they say
and the saddest thing is i can never predict what would come out from their mouth, they would say any irrational stupid thing with no logic, and i need to stop myself from laughing seeing how serious their face are
oh well, thats my story. I do notice not all evangelicals are like that, but the majority of them are unfortunately

Cyberbrain
01-18-2012, 03:49 AM
I hope the Paul camp can succeed in knocking down these guys before then. I think the whole strategy bets on a 2-man race coming in to Super Tuesday or at least a 3-man race w/ Ron in a strong 2nd.

tbone717
01-18-2012, 07:02 AM
I disagree with the OP. It takes money to stay in the race. Back several years ago the NY Times estimated that it takes $100K per day on average. I think that number is probably about right, possibly more today when you consider TV and radio ads, staff salaries, consultant fees, airfare, car rentals, hotels, food and incidentals.

You also have to consider the desire of the staff to continue. This is not just about the candidate, there are a whole host of people that make up the campaign. Sure they are getting paid for their jobs, but they are also living out of a suitcase, eating on the go and working long hours. Without the chance to succeed you will see staff start to leave the campaigns.

A campaign also needs volunteers, and it is very difficult for a campaign to get new volunteers, and have the existing ones continue on when the campaign is not showing positive results.

While Perry has money, he is not getting the support, so he will drop out after SC. Newt & Santorum do not have much money at all, so they are on thin ice. Whoever of the two gets a higher spot in SC will likely continue on (my guess is that will be Newt), but then will make a huge push in FL, which is a very expensive state for the campaign.

After FL we have four caucus states right in a row (NV, ME, CO, MN). It's not cheap to run an effective campaign in four states at once. So it will take cash in hand to be able to do so, without a very strong and positive showing in SC and/or FL there is no chance these guys can continue. My guess is that by the caucus states, or shortly thereafter it will be down to Paul & Romney.

The best case scenario for Paul is to come in first or a strong second in SC with Newt seriously under performing where he is at now. Newt is currently at 21 in SC. He was as high as 43 there less than 6 weeks ago. He is falling in FL as well. Currently he is polling at 22 and was as high as 48 there. If Newt winds up in the mid to low teens on Saturday his campaign is effectively finished. The same can be said for Santorum, who while never leading in those states has not been able to move out of the low to mid teens. In a ideal scenario Santorum finishes fourth, Newt finishes a distant third and both suspend their campaign.

Liberty74
01-18-2012, 07:20 AM
I believe Santorum and Perry will be out after SC. Why stay in till FL if you have no chance at winning FL and no where to go from there?

Aratus
01-18-2012, 08:17 AM
i think rick perry stays in until april but its
the OTHER rick who should not be named
who drops after Nevada when he has no
real hope in good ole florida or elsewhere.

RonPaul101.com
01-18-2012, 08:34 AM
It looks like Newt will do well in SC, so he will stay in. Santorum (who is a Catholic, not an evangelical, btw) will probably drop out after FL at least.

Correct, Santorum will not make it around to Super Tuesday. He'll leave after FL or after NV if the establishment thinks he can take some of the non-mormon vote in NV away from Paul.

tbone717
01-18-2012, 08:43 AM
Correct, Santorum will not make it around to Super Tuesday. He'll leave after FL or after NV if the establishment thinks he can take some of the non-mormon vote in NV away from Paul.

I have to call you out on this point. The establishment cannot divert the laws of math. If Santorum does not have the money to pay a staff, book flights, run TV ads, etc there is nothing the establishment can do about it. Don't make them out to be more powerful than they are. If they were all powerful then Bachmann would still be in the race to take votes away from Paul, so would Cain.

JasonM
01-18-2012, 10:19 PM
I have to call you out on this point. The establishment cannot divert the laws of math. If Santorum does not have the money to pay a staff, book flights, run TV ads, etc there is nothing the establishment can do about it. Don't make them out to be more powerful than they are. If they were all powerful then Bachmann would still be in the race to take votes away from Paul, so would Cain.

I agree, and you should remember that until John McCain won Florida he was really short on cash. But after he surprised everyone with his massive lead in super tuesday a few days later in 2008, THAT is when all the money started flooding into the McCain campaign.

Again, there is no incentive to quit after SC, and not having a campaign staff didn't stop Newt from dropping out. Santorum has effectively inherited the crown of Huckabee by default even if he doesn't capture all the evangelical vote. Only if one or both of the candidates drop to single digits in the polls will the other two candidates possibly drop out, but if those votes end up in Romney's hands then it's effectively game over as far as the nomination goes. It's then a delegates' game to shape the party platform, not win the nomination. Not that Republican candidates ever seem to really care about what's in the platform.

But again, it just means we keep working. Keep infiltrating the party and building that grassroots networking we got going. A Romney nomination means 4 more years of Obama, so we could have another shot in 2016 while putting more pro liberty candidates in congress in 2012 and 2014. We just have to become the new Republican party, that's all it means.

braane
01-18-2012, 10:23 PM
I believe Santorum and Perry will be out after SC. Why stay in till FL if you have no chance at winning FL and no where to go from there?

Yep.

abstrusezincate
01-18-2012, 10:44 PM
You know what's interesting though. If Paul starts sweeping through states after Florida in these caucuses, this could become a campaign again. It's a hell of a story to have a campaign that will be dismissed win states.

And frankly, if the campaign is dismissed, as I fear it might be, what will happen is turnout for those caucuses from average voters will be substantially depressed. In which case, the Paul bloc, if well organized, can have some stunning victories. It's a hell of a strategy IF they have their people ready.

AlienLanes82
01-18-2012, 10:56 PM
You know what's interesting though. If Paul starts sweeping through states after Florida in these caucuses, this could become a campaign again. It's a hell of a story to have a campaign that will be dismissed win states.


Yes!

Feb. 4: Nevada caucuses; Maine caucuses begin

Feb. 7: Colorado, Minnesota caucuses; (Missouri primary)


Four states where we should do well! And then...a loooong break until Feb 28. Anything can happen during that time, as long as we've been competitive in Nevada, Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota.

Aden
01-18-2012, 11:33 PM
Coming from an evangelical family myself, you must understand that the evangelical community is a very useful voting block of people due to a lot of fear mongering. First, they see Israel as a political entity prophesied by the Bible. This means it was ordained by God. Next, enemies of Israel will ultimately be slaughtered, so do you want your nation to throw their lot with Israel's enemies? No, so they want America to support Israel. Now Iran and all these crazy Muslims are railing for destruction of Israel and America, so they see the devil effectively in Iran and the Muslims. And they see this all culminating into a massive 100 million man army marching down on this tiny nation of Israel to ultimately meet a very bloody end.

If nothing else, they see Ron Paul as make this sort of thing happen sooner rather than later by saying things that are less than 100% belligerent towards Iran and radical Islam while ignoring the fact that the USA galvanized and helped train all these people in the first place!!

Throw in Ron Paul's less than homophobic sentiments and he's effectively disqualified from the evangelical primary, making Santorum win by default.

What they need to do is turn off Fox News, Limbaugh, Beck and Levin and read a Bible.

1.) Born-again Christians are going to be raptured out of the Earth before God focuses on the nation of Israel.
2.) God is then going to run the Jews through the ringer because they HATE Jesus and will never turn to Jesus/God until God puts them through hell on earth. This is when "everybody turns against Israel," as you say.
3.) Even if #1 does not happen until after the tribulation, #2 is still going to happen.
4.) If America swoops in and tries to save Israel from the evil bad Muslims (or whoever) that God is using to run the Jews through the ringer, America is toast.
5.) After God runs the Jews through the ringer, and the anti-Christ sits in the holy of holy in the temple at Jerusalem, a handful of Jews will finally realize they killed Jesus and will FINALLY repent and trust God.
6.) Only after all this happens will God destroy all of Israel's enemies, as you say.

So in the mean time, the job of us Christians is to 1.) spread the news of Jesus to everyone, irrespective of race or creed (Jew, gentile, Arab, brown, yellow, black or white), 2.) mind our own business when it comes to Jews because God has big plans for them and if pesky America gets in the way he will have no problem taking pesky America out.

CaptainAmerica
01-18-2012, 11:34 PM
gingrich and romney can split the NAZI vote right?

JasonM
01-18-2012, 11:53 PM
What they need to do is turn off Fox News, Limbaugh, Beck and Levin and read a Bible.

1.) Born-again Christians are going to be raptured out of the Earth before God focuses on the nation of Israel.
2.) God is then going to run the Jews through the ringer because they HATE Jesus and will never turn to Jesus/God until God puts them through hell on earth. This is when "everybody turns against Israel," as you say.
3.) Even if #1 does not happen until after the tribulation, #2 is still going to happen.
4.) If America swoops in and tries to save Israel from the evil bad Muslims (or whoever) that God is using to run the Jews through the ringer, America is toast.
5.) After God runs the Jews through the ringer, and the anti-Christ sits in the holy of holy in the temple at Jerusalem, a handful of Jews will finally realize they killed Jesus and will FINALLY repent and trust God.
6.) Only after all this happens will God destroy all of Israel's enemies, as you say.

So in the mean time, the job of us Christians is to 1.) spread the news of Jesus to everyone, irrespective of race or creed (Jew, gentile, Arab, brown, yellow, black or white), 2.) mind our own business when it comes to Jews because God has big plans for them and if pesky America gets in the way he will have no problem taking pesky America out.

A lot of Christians think they have faith in God when they really just have faith in what their preacher and "Christian leaders" tell them, which is why we have nonsensical things like Holy Wars and Crusades. Real faith has to be found on your own and is best kept simple and private without all the obsession into prophesy, predictions and politics mixed in. By all means spread the word about Jesus when you get the opportunity, but keep it separate from politics and do the best you can to live a life worthy of Christ without wearing it on your sleeve.

dfalken
01-18-2012, 11:54 PM
You know what's interesting though. If Paul starts sweeping through states after Florida in these caucuses, this could become a campaign again. It's a hell of a story to have a campaign that will be dismissed win states.

And frankly, if the campaign is dismissed, as I fear it might be, what will happen is turnout for those caucuses from average voters will be substantially depressed. In which case, the Paul bloc, if well organized, can have some stunning victories. It's a hell of a strategy IF they have their people ready.

I totally hope you are right but I really don't understand what makes any of us think that Paul is magically going to start sweeping through caucuses all of the sudden? have you seen the polls of us against Mittens? Something major has to happen here or we don't stand much of a chance. Either that or I am really missing something from the strategy or something as I don't see how we are going to sweep anything right now. Please explain?

JasonM
01-19-2012, 12:02 AM
I totally hope you are right but I really don't understand what makes any of us think that Paul is magically going to start sweeping through caucuses all of the sudden? have you seen the polls of us against Mittens? Something major has to happen here or we don't stand much of a chance. Either that or I am really missing something from the strategy or something as I don't see how we are going to sweep anything right now. Please explain?

We don't really have a lot of polls from RCP on the later states showing right now. And I agree, a lot of voters planning to vote in the primaries might just stay home rather than vote for Ron Paul or Mitt Romney. So if Paul gets 50k and Mittens gets 80k votes, then it helps us if gingrich stays in and grabs 50k votes. But if he drops, it could up up as 60k Paul, Mittens 90k, and the other 30k stays home or votes "none of the above". Then Mitt gets over 60% instead of just 30 or 40%. So a 3-man race isn't necessarily a bad thing if there are voters that are loyal only to Gingrich or Santorum.

socal
01-19-2012, 01:50 AM
Coming from an evangelical family myself, you must understand that the evangelical community is a very useful voting block of people due to a lot of fear mongering. First, they see Israel as a political entity prophesied by the Bible. This means it was ordained by God. Next, enemies of Israel will ultimately be slaughtered, so do you want your nation to throw their lot with Israel's enemies? No, so they want America to support Israel. Now Iran and all these crazy Muslims are railing for destruction of Israel and America, so they see the devil effectively in Iran and the Muslims. And they see this all culminating into a massive 100 million man army marching down on this tiny nation of Israel to ultimately meet a very bloody end.
...


What they need to do is turn off Fox News, Limbaugh, Beck and Levin and read a Bible.

1.) Born-again Christians are going to be raptured out of the Earth before God focuses on the nation of Israel.
2.) God is then going to run the Jews through the ringer because they HATE Jesus and will never turn to Jesus/God until God puts them through hell on earth. This is when "everybody turns against Israel," as you say.
3.) Even if #1 does not happen until after the tribulation, #2 is still going to happen.
4.) If America swoops in and tries to save Israel from the evil bad Muslims (or whoever) that God is using to run the Jews through the ringer, America is toast.
5.) After God runs the Jews through the ringer, and the anti-Christ sits in the holy of holy in the temple at Jerusalem, a handful of Jews will finally realize they killed Jesus and will FINALLY repent and trust God.
6.) Only after all this happens will God destroy all of Israel's enemies, as you say.
...
By necessity, biblical prophecy isn't easy to figure out, but neither of those interpretations make much, if any, sense in light of current events.

JasonM
01-19-2012, 02:12 AM
Indeed, and people like to try to fit current events into Biblical prophesy. It used to be the communists that would lead the 100 million man army against Israel, now it's the Muslims. It will never end, and if these guys stayed out of politics it wouldn't matter what they think. But they let themselves be swayed by this sort of stuff and thus let themselves serve as useful idiots in the promotion of endless war and ever larger encroachments of government/corporations on our liberties.

Aden
01-19-2012, 09:45 AM
By necessity, biblical prophecy isn't easy to figure out, but neither of those interpretations make much, if any, sense in light of current events.

It makes perfect sense.

- Jesus came to Earth to establish his earthly kingdom, as king of God's chosen people, the Jews.
- The Jews rejected Christ and killed him.
- Thanks to the Jew's mistake, all of us "dogs" (Bible term) now get crumbs from the table. We are no longer in the time of the Jew, but the time of the Gentile.
- Jesus will come back for his bride (those saved).
- Tribulation will happen, and Jews will suffer hell on earth as the anti-Christ runs the show.
- Jews will eventually see the light, and trust Jesus.
- Jesus will come back to Earth and destroy all of men's armies.

Since, over the course of 2,000 years, this could have happened at any given moment, the world is always setup to fulfill end time prophecy at any given time. This is why "people thought it was the communist, then the Muslims." But JasomM is right that we are not supposed to focus on prophecy, but instead of building our relationship with Christ. Dunno where he got all that wearing religion on sleeve nonsense from, but we are commanded to go throughout the world preaching with our mouths that Jesus is the only way to Heaven.

ZzzImAsleep
01-19-2012, 10:00 AM
Coming from an evangelical family myself, you must understand that the evangelical community is a very useful voting block of people due to a lot of fear mongering. First, they see Israel as a political entity prophesied by the Bible. This means it was ordained by God. Next, enemies of Israel will ultimately be slaughtered, so do you want your nation to throw their lot with Israel's enemies? No, so they want America to support Israel. Now Iran and all these crazy Muslims are railing for destruction of Israel and America, so they see the devil effectively in Iran and the Muslims. And they see this all culminating into a massive 100 million man army marching down on this tiny nation of Israel to ultimately meet a very bloody end.

If nothing else, they see Ron Paul as make this sort of thing happen sooner rather than later by saying things that are less than 100% belligerent towards Iran and radical Islam while ignoring the fact that the USA galvanized and helped train all these people in the first place!!

Throw in Ron Paul's less than homophobic sentiments and he's effectively disqualified from the evangelical primary, making Santorum win by default.

Sigh... when will logic ever trump religious fervor?

Svenskar_för_Ron_Paul
01-19-2012, 10:30 AM
Hey guys, don't forget Buddy Roemer!

Nikolaib
01-19-2012, 10:51 AM
As an Eastern Orthodox clergyman (of Russian persuasion) I am often greatly offends by how Evangelicals make the rest of the Christian world look. I mean, their eschatology was invented only a few hundred years ago, as was their "church" in general. Their love for Israel as a nation is completely unfounded, and completely rejects the fact that the Church is the new Israel. Old Israel rejected God, why do they think he still favors them? And why do the evangelicals not care about the numerous atrocities commited by Israelis against Arab Christians? Are they that blinded by their love of Israel to not be able to see that Christians are being persecuted by people who rejected God?

Xenophage
01-19-2012, 11:31 AM
Coming from an evangelical family myself, you must understand that the evangelical community is a very useful voting block of people due to a lot of fear mongering. First, they see Israel as a political entity prophesied by the Bible. This means it was ordained by God. Next, enemies of Israel will ultimately be slaughtered, so do you want your nation to throw their lot with Israel's enemies? No, so they want America to support Israel. Now Iran and all these crazy Muslims are railing for destruction of Israel and America, so they see the devil effectively in Iran and the Muslims. And they see this all culminating into a massive 100 million man army marching down on this tiny nation of Israel to ultimately meet a very bloody end.

If nothing else, they see Ron Paul as make this sort of thing happen sooner rather than later by saying things that are less than 100% belligerent towards Iran and radical Islam while ignoring the fact that the USA galvanized and helped train all these people in the first place!!

Throw in Ron Paul's less than homophobic sentiments and he's effectively disqualified from the evangelical primary, making Santorum win by default.

Santorum is Catholic.

Xenophage
01-19-2012, 11:36 AM
By necessity, biblical prophecy isn't easy to figure out, but neither of those interpretations make much, if any, sense in light of current events.

Because the Bible is pure horseshit.

trey4sports
01-19-2012, 11:37 AM
we need to get santorum and Newt out ASAP.