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View Full Version : Total votes among the candidates still in the race..




RileyE104
01-17-2012, 07:47 PM
Mitt Romney: 127,615 votes - 40.13%

Ron Paul: 83,091 votes - 26.13%

Rick Santorum: 53,369 votes - 16.78%

Newt Gingrich: 39,543 votes - 12.44%

Rick Perry: 14,368 votes - 4.52%



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I'm curious as to how this will change in four days after South Carolina has its primary...

In 2008, Dr. Paul got around 16,000 votes (less than 4%) but recent polls show him doing at least 3.5x better for this election.

So, taking that 14% - we get around 56,000 voters depending on turnout.
However, many here and even in the media have speculated Dr. Paul will get close to 20%...
That would mean roughly 80,000 votes depending on turnout!

I for one believe Dr. Paul will give 2nd place a run for the money.
But enough speculation... We could do better (surprise win?? it's possible!) or we could do worse, as in 4th place, but I doubt that will happen..


One thing I'm absolutely positive about is that Gov. Perry will place 5th and be out of the race by Sunday...

JnyBlu
01-17-2012, 08:08 PM
I'm honestly kind of feeling like Dr. Paul needs to win this one, or at the very least, it needs to be a razor thin margin second place with the other candidates far behind. I just get the feeling that if it's anything other than that, he's going to lose a lot of momentum. The fact is, at some point, he has to start winning states. He can't come in second or third in every state and win the nomination, no matter how much better he performs compared to 2008.

RileyE104
01-17-2012, 08:13 PM
He can't come in second or third in every state and win the nomination, no matter how much better he performs compared to 2008.

You seem to be forgetting that there's only four states that vote this month. In reality, these four states do not determine who the nominee will be.

Also, please remember that the campaign itself via Jesse Benton has repeatedly stated that they believe Dr. Paul WILL start winning some of the caucus states next month.

When Dr. Paul starts getting some states under his name and collecting even more delegates than imagined by the media, THAT is when the real momentum will start to pour in.

Tyler_Durden
01-17-2012, 08:15 PM
TV and Radio ads in SC -- I wonder what the ratio is. Are there more attack ads against the others (by Paul and the others) than there are attack ads directed toward Paul?

Which way are the firing shots being directed? That's my question.

If Paul is low in the receiving end, then it should help.

kuckfeynes
01-17-2012, 08:19 PM
SC is not the test.
FL is too big for too few delegates.
NV will be the first real test.
On Feb 8, we will know. Not before.

hueylong
01-17-2012, 08:22 PM
Nevada, Maine, Colorado and Minnesota will be the 'early' watershed.

Kregisen
01-17-2012, 08:31 PM
I think you're mistaken on the numbers. There have been 2 states so far. Iowa we got 21%. New Hampshire we got 23%. Therefore our total will be somewhere between 21% and 23%.

RileyE104
01-17-2012, 09:46 PM
I think you're mistaken on the numbers. There have been 2 states so far. Iowa we got 21%. New Hampshire we got 23%. Therefore our total will be somewhere between 21% and 23%.

No, I took out the votes cast for Huntsman and Bachmann because they no longer count.

thoughtomator
01-17-2012, 09:49 PM
That's not a complete analysis, you're missing all the people who will vote for one of the remaining candidates who otherwise would vote for one that had dropped out. All the switchers are not present, but they have a huge impact on the outcome.

RileyE104
01-17-2012, 09:59 PM
That's not a complete analysis, you're missing all the people who will vote for one of the remaining candidates who otherwise would vote for one that had dropped out. All the switchers are not present, but they have a huge impact on the outcome.

The voters in Iowa and New Hampshire who voted for either Huntsman or Bachmann wasted their votes because their candidates aren't in the race anymore.

They can't change their vote because their state doesn't vote again so it doesn't matter who their second pick is.

tbone717
01-17-2012, 09:59 PM
Nevada, Maine, Colorado and Minnesota will be the 'early' watershed.

Bingo - and we go into Super Tuesday with a two-man race, each tied with four wins. Conservative vs liberal, with the majority of the Super Tuesday states being red states we could win 7 of the 10 states in play.

BUSHLIED
01-17-2012, 10:10 PM
It's always been clear that the campaign has sought to capitalize on what they learned from 2008. They learned that Ron performs better in caucus states versus primary states. No need to get into the reasons for that. However, there are only 14 caucus states. As I have said before, even if Ron were to win the remaining caucus states, he would only have at best 1/3 of the delegated needed to win the nomination (not 1/3 of the total delegates). The challenge becomes using momentum from the caucus state wins to win larger primary states against Romney. As we have seen, the media is large determinent of momentum as they provide favorable coverage to one candidate over the other such as Santorum winning Iowa. If Ron were to win NV, it would be downplayed. If there is a pattern of caucus wins, that would also be downplayed like the repetitive winning of straw polls. Therefore, Ron MUST win Arizona. Anyone think it can be done?? Or disagree?

helmuth_hubener
01-17-2012, 10:37 PM
If there is going to be a showdown and break-out victory, Arizona would be a cool beachhead to have it staged at. It has long been a rEVOLution stronghold.

Kregisen
01-18-2012, 02:22 AM
If there is going to be a showdown and break-out victory, Arizona would be a cool beachhead to have it staged at. It has long been a rEVOLution stronghold.

:) I'm not involved in any meetup groups or anything down here, yet I know dozens of Paul supporters.

JasonM
01-18-2012, 02:35 AM
Bingo - and we go into Super Tuesday with a two-man race, each tied with four wins. Conservative vs liberal, with the majority of the Super Tuesday states being red states we could win 7 of the 10 states in play.

Not so fast. I'm not convinced it will be a 2 man race going into Super Tuesday. I think Newt will hold out till super tuesday just out of sheer spite for Mitt (he could still pull a John McCain on Mitt Romney), while Santorum will stick around just because of the near win in Iowa and Evangelicals cheering him on.

Perry may as well book his tickets to Texas now the way things are going. I predict no more dropouts till after Super Tuesday.

tbone717
01-18-2012, 06:23 AM
Not so fast. I'm not convinced it will be a 2 man race going into Super Tuesday. I think Newt will hold out till super tuesday just out of sheer spite for Mitt (he could still pull a John McCain on Mitt Romney), while Santorum will stick around just because of the near win in Iowa and Evangelicals cheering him on.

Perry may as well book his tickets to Texas now the way things are going. I predict no more dropouts till after Super Tuesday.

It's all about money, not desire. Newt will not have enough to continue that far. It takes a lot of cash to contend in four caucus states and without that cash Newt could be looking at single digits in those states, which is quite frankly embarrassing. Don't forget that there are two other primaries before Super Tuesday (AZ, MI) which I failed to mention in my previous post, but I feel will be split by Paul & Romney given a Paul sweep of the caucus states.

So that would be six states with all of them, except Maine, having large & expensive media markets to buy ads in. You cannot do that, travel, pay staff salaries, etc when you do not have the cash. Newt would have to raise a huge amount of cash to be able to get through these races. And given that he is not even on the VA ballot I highly doubt that big money donors, or individuals would part with their cash so Newt can stay in it for sheer spite.

jersdream
01-18-2012, 06:27 AM
Mittens will dominate Nevada because of the Mormon vote.

No Free Beer
01-18-2012, 06:58 AM
I'm honestly kind of feeling like Dr. Paul needs to win this one, or at the very least, it needs to be a razor thin margin second place with the other candidates far behind. I just get the feeling that if it's anything other than that, he's going to lose a lot of momentum. The fact is, at some point, he has to start winning states. He can't come in second or third in every state and win the nomination, no matter how much better he performs compared to 2008.

I would disagree.

A top three finish is good.