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View Full Version : Rasmussen SC (01/16): Romney 35%, Gingrich 21%, Paul 16%, Santorum 16%, Perry 5%




Havax
01-17-2012, 01:13 PM
Romney 35%
Gingrich 21%
Paul 16%
Santourm 16%
Perry 5%

This South Carolina survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 16, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/south_carolina/election_2012_south_carolina_republican_primary



Jon Huntsman’s endorsement seems to be already paying off for Mitt Romney in South Carolina. With the former Utah governor’s decision to drop out of the Republican presidential race, Romney moves even further ahead in the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of Saturday’s South Carolina Primary.

The former Massachusetts governor now earns 35% support from likely South Carolina GOP Primary Voters, according to the latest telephone survey in the state. That’s up from 28% late last week. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remains in second place with 21% of the vote, followed by former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum and Texas Congressman Ron Paul, each with 16%. The vote totals for Gingrich, Santorum and Paul are unchanged from the previous survey.

Texas Governor Rick Perry runs last with five percent (5%) support, essentially unchanged from six percent (6%) last week. Huntsman, who announced Monday that he was quitting the race, picked up five percent (5%) in the previous survey. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

These latest findings come in a survey from Monday evening, after Huntsman’s announcement but before the remaining five candidates held a debate in Myrtle Beach, S.C.

The prior survey found Romney’s support essentially unchanged from the 27% he had earned a week earlier, while Santorum was down eight points, Gingrich up three and Paul up five.

Romney’s rivals continued to question his conservative credentials and to batter his business record in last night’s debate. But Romney has now moved into a tie with Gingrich among voters in the state who call themselves Very Conservative and continues to run well ahead among those who are Somewhat Conservative. Sixty-two percent (62%) of all GOP voters in the state view Romney’s business record as a reason to support him.

Among primary voters in the Palmetto State, 39% think Romney would do a better job managing the economy, followed by Gingrich with 23% support and Paul at 19%. The rest of the field is in single digits. Nationally, 48% of all voters think Romney would do a better job than Obama with the economy.

Just 33% of South Carolina primary voters say they could change their minds by Saturday, down from 41% late last week. Eight percent (8%) say they still don’t have an initial preference. The 59% who are certain how they will vote in the primary includes 69% of Romney supporters, 65% of Gingrich backers, 63% of Santorum’s voters, 58% of Paul’s and 54% of Perry’s.

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This South Carolina survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 16, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Regardless of which candidate they favor, 69% of likely South Carolina Primary voters continue to think Romney will win the GOP nomination. A plurality (49%) believes he would be the strongest challenger to Obama, while primary voters still see Paul as the weakest potential challenger. Eighty-seven percent (87%) say the GOP candidate is likely to win the election in November, with 54% who believe it’s Very Likely.

Romney is the most popular of the Republican candidates in South Carolina, with favorables of 68%. He swaps places with Santorum who was the most popular last week and is now viewed favorably by 64%. Gingrich is regarded favorably by 55%, Perry by 51% and Paul by 45%.

Santorum has now faded among Tea Party voters in the state, running third with 19% support after leading among this group in the prior survey. Gingrich is now first among Tea Party voters with 30% support, followed by Romney at 27%. Romney has a two-to-one lead or better over his rivals among voters who are not members of the grassroots movement.

Romney now also leads among all religious demographic groups after running second to Santorum late last week among Evangelical Christians.

Rasmussen Reports’ most recent survey of the January 31 Florida Primary field found Romney running far ahead there as well.

jsem
01-17-2012, 01:15 PM
If this is coming from Rasmussen, it's a good sign.

We need at least third. Wonder what the debate will have done to the polling numbers.

Agorism
01-17-2012, 01:15 PM
We need lots of negative ads.

Go down ugly and knock down Gingrich and Santorum.

QWDC
01-17-2012, 01:17 PM
Beating Romney is out of the question at this point, but Newt looks very vulnerable, especially given this is Rasmussen. We can only hope a RP second would cause everyone else to drop out, triggering the final showdown.

Havax
01-17-2012, 01:20 PM
This was pre-debate. I'd imagine the next poll will show Romney slipping some, Gingrich and Perry gaining some, and us and Santorum about the same. Hopefully we can run our ads and have a great performance Thursday to solidify 3rd and be within striking distance of 2nd.

specsaregood
01-17-2012, 01:36 PM
Just for reference:
Final NH Rasumussen poll before primary:
Name,Poll,Actual,Diff
Romney: 37,39.3(+2.3)
Paul: 17,22.9(+5.9)
Santorum: 13,9.4(-3.6)
Gingrich: 12,9.4(-2.6)
Perry: 1,.7(-.3)

If they are off in a similar manner in SC; then that puts Paul at solid #2

AggieforPaul
01-17-2012, 01:43 PM
Just for reference:
Final NH Rasumussen poll before primary:
Name,Poll,Actual,Diff
Romney: 37,39.3(+2.3)
Paul: 17,22.9(+5.9)
Santorum: 13,9.4(-3.6)
Gingrich: 12,9.4(-2.6)
Perry: 1,.7(-.3)

If they are off in a similar manner in SC; then that puts Paul at solid #2

Maybe people in NH gravitated toward the "front runners". If that's the case, it could actually work against us in SC.

Havax
01-17-2012, 01:58 PM
Maybe people in NH gravitated toward the "front runners". If that's the case, it could actually work against us in SC.

Good point. This actually makes 3rd seem more of a guarantee since the media will pump Newt and the anti-Romney vote will rally around him to try and beat Romney pushing down Santorum and Ron keeping around the same.

No Free Beer
01-17-2012, 02:14 PM
This means we are higher.

Rasmussen sucks.

I say we are between 18-20%

matt0611
01-17-2012, 02:16 PM
IMO we need at least third to keep our momentum and second would be really really good to get and could possibly be doable if the grinch takes a hit this week.

cdw
01-17-2012, 02:16 PM
1. Does this include independents and democrats?
2. And even if it doesn't, if Rasmussen has us at 16% that means we are really around 20%.

Edward
01-17-2012, 02:20 PM
Rasmussen sucks.

I seem to recall that a close relative (brother?) of Scott Rasmussen was affiliated with Ron Paul's campaign in 2007-2008 and vouched for his fairness. Perhaps some of the old timers might be able to elaborate on this.

matt0611
01-17-2012, 02:22 PM
I seem to recall that a close relative (brother?) of Scott Rasmussen was affiliated with Ron Paul's campaign in 2007-2008 and vouched for his fairness. Perhaps some of the old timers might be able to elaborate on this.

Could be just a way that they do their polling that has consistently underestimated our support in the past. It may not be anything "dishonest" per se

Brett85
01-17-2012, 02:24 PM
Unfortunately, this poll was conducted before last night's debate.

Havax
01-17-2012, 02:25 PM
Unfortunately, this poll was conducted before last night's debate.

Your glass is half empty.

jsem
01-17-2012, 02:26 PM
Remember how Ron Paul did a pretty similar thing in the last debate before Iowa, but he survived in the polls despite that?

RonPaul101.com
01-17-2012, 02:27 PM
We need lots of negative ads.

Go down ugly and knock down Gingrich and Santorum.

THIS

Havax
01-17-2012, 02:39 PM
Remember how Ron Paul did a pretty similar thing in the last debate before Iowa, but he survived in the polls despite that?

Exactly the point I made in this thread: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?351903-Remember-this-(You-ll-feel-better)

doctorfunk
01-17-2012, 03:04 PM
Dr. Paul really needs to tailor his message delivery to the general public. Relying on educated voters will get you strong supporters but not the white house.

Aden
01-17-2012, 03:24 PM
Perry will probably drop out after finishing last in SC. I'd be happy if Paul places third or above. Unfortunately, I don't see Santorum or Gingrich even contemplating dropping out unless Romney and Paul get 1st/2nd. They seem like selfish politicians who will stay in for the attention.

slamhead
01-17-2012, 03:25 PM
>>HOLD<<

Upon my signal unleash the gates of hell.