100% Chance of Recession & Stock Market to Plunge 50-60%, Blomberg News, David Tice

[OptionsTrader]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_0pqHzK324

On Blomberg News, David Tice, Prudent Bear Fund says there is a 100% Chance of Recession on Bloomberg News Video. Says stock market to decline 50-60%.

Ron Paul is he only Presidential candidate talking about this impending market collapse and talking about the dollar crisis and impending recession.

Ref:
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

[Give me liberty]

from what i heard from some people they say that Recession can be a very bad thing.

[RP4ME]

it will be mor elike STAGFLATION !!!! It will be bad not like teh "recesiions of yesteryear" o how we will long for those!

[johngr]

The plunge will be much worse than it is. Remember, they value US stocks in dollars.

[LibertyOfOne]

It might get to the point of depression status. The fed dug us a hole so big it might be too late to change the inevitable.

[yaz]

What's the best thing to do to prepare for a depression? Buy gold? Invest in specific stocks? Also how can I make a lot of money during this recession? :P

[SeanEdwards]

What's the best thing to do to prepare for a depression?

Head for the ledge now, while there's still time.

[yaz]

lol. maybe buy extra food? :P

[freelance]

What's the best thing to do to prepare for a depression? Buy gold? Invest in specific stocks? Also how can I make a lot of money during this recession? :P

Get everything that you can out of the US dollar. People like Harry Schultz and Jim Sinclair are talking about PMs, Canadian 91-day federal T-bills and Swiss T-bills. Take PHYSICAL possession of gold and silver. If you have stocks, get stock certificates and hold them in a safe. Don't rely on electronic proof. While you're at it, clean out your safety deposit boxes and place those contents into a fireproof safe. What happens to that stuff if the banks close their doors?

I sure can't advise you on how to make money in a recession or depression, but you can make a lot of money when the fire sales begin. In the past, it was those who owned the picks and shovels that made the money. I'm not sure what that translates into today.

[theseus51]

I heard to keep your gold in a safe at home, that's nailed to the wall or ground. If the United States ever decides to "nationalize" people's assets (not out of the realm of possibility), where are they going to go first? Bank's safe deposit boxes.

[freelance]

I heard to keep your gold in a safe at home, that's nailed to the wall or ground. If the United States ever decides to "nationalize" people's assets (not out of the realm of possibility), where are they going to go first? Bank's safe deposit boxes.

Better yet, TWO safes...one for them and one for you. ;)

[FunkBuddha]

I've got my gold in someone else's (family) safe whom I trust with my life... If there is any record of me purchasing my gold, I don't want them to come and take it from me at "fair-market" value like I heard they did in 1934.

I read that they required a Treasury agent to be present for people to open safety deposit boxes.

[torchbearer]

Invest in european utilities, trading in euros... after the dollar goes to zero value, you'll still have your worth, while everyone else lost theirs... then you can sell you stock into trillions of dollars which will be worth the sames as the $20,000 you dropped onto the European utility stock earlier.

[Bradley in DC]

David Tice understands Austrian economics and is close with Dr. Paul. While I was there, I organized a Congressional staff briefing for him to speak when he was up in DC.

[pdavis]

Exchange your dollars for a stable foreign currency, such as the Euro, and both gold and silver bullion coins (American Eagles, South American Krugerrands).

[Richard]

this is happening cos of massive frauds is covered in Issues for America section thread Wantagate.

Follow it thru to Christopher Story's website and you will see the exact cause of all these problems.
The world is putting the squeeze on USA as a lesson for mishandling alot of international money

[Thomas Paine]

Okay, while I share everyone's concerns about the state of the national economy, we should be careful about fanning any hysteria. GDP growth was actually quite strong through the 3rd Quarter although it will slow down if oil prices remain at about $100 pbl. However, large U.S. companies with overseas exports will do better while the U.S. Dollar remains weak because such exports will be cheaper for overseas buyers. The downside is that overseas lenders that hold U.S. Treasuries might start to unload their positions in U.S. Dollars because of the decline of the U.S. Dollar, which would further devalue the U.S. Dollar (tricky for these overseas lenders because it would only make their products more expensive vis-a-vis U.S. exports). Nevertheless, this nation needs to start making the transition from a pure consumer driven economy to a hybrid consumer/saver economy and reduce the national debt and eliminate the annual budget deficits by slashing federal expenditures.

For folks who are truly concerned about how to protect their investments and assets, I strongly suggest you take a look at investor forums (none of which will permit any political statements of any type). My favorite is the Bogleheads forum, which is named after John Bogle of Vanguard investments. Another site to visit is "thecoffeehouseinvestor." The general theme of the foregoing sites is that an investor should diversify their assets between various asset classes such as domestic equity funds, domestic treasury funds, commodities, international equity funds, large cap funds, small cap funds, TIPS funds, and CDs or money market funds. The reason for such diversification is that if the stock market declines by 50%, then one's portfolio will not decline nearly as much assuming that the portfolio is also invested in non-equity funds. In short, a diversified portfolio will be less volatile than the stock market over the long haul.

If one is overwhelmed about how to diversify one's portfolio, one can still place all of one's assets in a single fund that is already diversified between various asset classes depending on one's target retirement age (eg. Fidelity's Freedom funds and Vanguard's similar funds). The important point is to take steps to diversify your "savings" to survive whatever the stock market decides to do over the next 12 months.

[Thomas Paine]

Okay, I just listened to the David Tice interview. He is a "bear" fund manager. Bear fund managers deliberately structure their investments to make money when the stock markets decline. If the stock markets are doing well, then bear funds do NOT do well, which means that bear fund managers' jobs/salaries are at risk (since bear fund investors will withdraw their funds and invest in funds that are doing well).

Therefore, while not everything that David Tice said in his interview is meritless, Mr. Tice's commentary is self-serving because if he can scare investors into selling stocks and equity funds thereby driving down the stock markets, then his bear funds will start to do well, which results in Mr. Tice being able to collect larger fees.

[Zydeco]

"Okay, I just listened to the David Tice interview. He is a "bear" fund manager...Therefore, while not everything that David Tice said in his interview is meritless, Mr. Tice's commentary is self-serving"

You're assuming he's predicting financial doom because he's a bear fund manager, but maybe he became a bear fund manager because he predicts financial doom.

[Freedom]

GDP growth was actually quite strong through the 3rd Quarter although it will slow down if oil prices remain at about $100 pbl.

The only reason that GDP growth is so high is because the government has been manipulating the GDP price deflator figure lower which makes the GDP look bigger.

Here is an excellent analysis by Chris Puplava (http://www.financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2007/1031.html):


The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first look at third quarter GDP, which showed the economy expanded at a 3.9% annualized rate in real GDP. This was above the consensus expectations of 3.0% growth and slightly larger than the 3.82% second quarter growth rate in real GDP.
What is not widely reported in the financial press regarding the GDP report was the implicit price deflator. The implicit price deflator used to subtract inflation from nominal GDP to obtain real GDP was 4.23% in the first quarter, 2.63% in the second quarter, and 0.75% in the third quarter. Nominal GDP came in this quarter at 4.67% and subtracting the implicit price deflator gives real GDP of 3.90%.
What is incredibly hard to believe is that inflation grew an annualized 0.75% in the third quarter despite oil pushing over $90/barrel, surging food prices where the food & beverage CPI is running at an accelerated 4.4% YOY rate, core CPI running at a 2.14% YOY rate, and the ultimate inflation barometer, gold, pushing through $800/oz intraday and approaching an all-time high.
What is interesting is that the implicit price deflator was directionally correlated with West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices in 2006, where both trended lower. However, they decoupled this year with the deflator falling since the first quarter while crude has been trending up the whole year as has food inflation. In the GDP revisions to come down the road, expect the growth rate to be adjusted downward as the implicit price deflator is likely grossly understated, which in turn overstates GDP.

[Thomas Paine]

What I am assuming is that it is rather convenient for David Tice to predict a stock market decline of 50%-60% since the more investors that are scared into placing sell orders with their brokerage firms tomorrow morning after hearing his interview, then the more likely the stock markets will decline, which will actually increase the value of Mr. Tice's bear funds. If Mr. Tice had predicted a stock market correction of only 10%-15%, then investors would be less inclined to sell out their positions and more inclined to just wait out the downturn, which would likely result in a moderate selloff in the equity markets and less money for Mr. Tice.

The last time there was a 50% decline in the equity markets was due to the tech bust in 2000-2002 when nearly the entire tech sector evaporated (because they never had any true value to begin with). While the sub-prime debacle has hit the financial sector pretty hard, only one bank (a relatively small one in Germany) has actually gone out of business (or was bought out). Furthermore, as bad as the housing sector is right now, this sector is only 4% of the national economy.

I think the stock markets will be volatile over the next six months, but I don't think they will decline anywhere near the 50% predicted by Mr. Tice. Regardless, I am diversified between domestic equity funds, domestic bond and TIPS funds, international equity funds, commodities (including gold fund), large caps and small caps. Plus, I have a 20 year investment horizon so even if the market declines 50%, I know the markets will recover such losses before I reach retirement age. Moreover, more investors have learned to not place all their eggs in one sector like in 2000 and are more diversified between various asset classes so there will be less of a selloff this time around compared to 2000-2002.

[Thomas Paine]

Even assuming arguendo that 3rd Quarter GDP growth is overinflated, keep in mind that the true definition of a recession is two straight quarters of actual GDP decline. Therefore, even if growth figures are revised downward, such downward revision is insufficient to reveal two straight quarters of actual GDP decline to constitute the economists' definition of a recession on a nationwide basis.

[OptionsTrader]

What's the best thing to do to prepare for a depression? Buy gold? Invest in specific stocks? Also how can I make a lot of money during this recession? :P

Buy gold online at just above spot price and have it shipped to you
http://www.kitco.com
http://www.golddealer.com

Gold miner stocks
Such as some of the $2+ Bilion market cap ones that Ron Paul happens to own:
ABX
EM
EGO
IAG
GG
KGC
NEM

Gold ETFs:
GLD
DGL
DBP (gold and silver)

Gold miner ETFs/ indexes:
XAU
GDX

[freelance]

Buy gold online at just above spot price and have it shipped to you
http://www.kitco.com
http://www.golddealer.com

Gold miner stocks
Such as some of the $2+ Bilion market cap ones that Ron Paul happens to own:
ABX
EM
EGO
IAG
GG
KGC
NEM

Gold ETFs:
GLD
DGL
DBP (gold and silver)

Gold miner index:
XAU

Take PHYSICAL possession of your stock certificates, per Jim Sinclair and that crowd.

[OptionsTrader]

...edit: nevermind.

[Johnnybags]

What's the best thing to do to prepare for a depression? Buy gold? Invest in specific stocks? Also how can I make a lot of money during this recession? :P

even gold, the leverage used will force people to sell all assets. The yen carry trade is over. After the delevering buy gold. Bernanke created a bubble in it and it will fall as well. The key thing is emerging markets like Brazil, when they delever the pain is going to be amazing. Short all emerging markets or buy puts on the emerging markets indexes. Mexico or Brazil EWZ, EWW or EEM emerging markets. Oil is about to delever as well. Bernanke reached critical mass where people do without rather than pay higher and higher prices caused by his printing press. AAA rated mortgages are now trading at 69.00 cents on the dollar, a sign the Wall St gurus are in trouble. This is not subprime, its the elite. Step one, take some cash out of the banking system into a lockbox, short emerging markets(further to fall), short entertainment and liesure(casinos/cruiselines especially) and be ready to scoop up rural farmland at auction. Or buy MZZ a leveraged ultrashort fund at 55.00 bucks, goes double inverse the market trend.

[freelance]

even gold, the leverage used will force people to sell all assets. The yen carry trade is over. After the delevering buy gold. Bernanke created a bubble in it and it will fall as well. The key thing is emerging markets like Brazil, when they delever the pain is going to be amazing. Short all emerging markets or buy puts on the emerging markets indexes. Mexico or Brazil EWZ, EWW or EEM emerging markets. Oil is about to delever as well. Bernanke reached critical mass where people do without rather than pay higher and higher prices caused by his printing press. AAA rated mortgages are now trading at 69.00 cents on the dollar, a sign the Wall St gurus are in trouble. This is not subprime, its the elite. Step one, take some cash out of the banking system into a lockbox, short emerging markets(further to fall), short entertainment and liesure(casinos/cruiselines especially) and be ready to scoop up rural farmland at auction. Or buy MZZ a leveraged ultrashort fund at 55.00 bucks, goes double inverse the market trend.

We actually sold our house to a developer who is going to renovate it. Plan: In our wildest dreams, buy it back in a couple of years at auction, completely renovated. LOL!

Yeah, good point about stashing cash. Check, did that a few months back.

[Mortikhi]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_0pqHzK324

On Blomberg News, David Tice, Prudent Bear Fund says there is a 100% Chance of Recession on Bloomberg News Video. Says stock market to decline 50-60%.

Ron Paul is he only Presidential candidate talking about this impending market collapse and talking about the dollar crisis and impending recession.

Ref:
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/
90% of my stocks are in foreign and emerging markets.

[Johnnybags]

90% of my stocks are in foreign and emerging markets.

while they are far ahead. The misnomer is the US can fall into recession while the world booms. The emerging markets are set to correct starting in Mexico, its already begun.

[OptionsTrader]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yY6u-sXKGSo

Reckless Expansion of Credit and the Impending Recession

David Tice on Bloomberg News 11/20/2007.

[kotetu]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_0pqHzK324

On Blomberg News, David Tice, Prudent Bear Fund says there is a 100% Chance of Recession on Bloomberg News Video. Says stock market to decline 50-60%.

Ron Paul is he only Presidential candidate talking about this impending market collapse and talking about the dollar crisis and impending recession.

Ref:
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

Did anyone save this video? If so, please re-upload.

:)

[teacherone]

Did anyone save this video? If so, please re-upload.

:)

do you know something we don't know? :eek:

[Uncle Emanuel Watkins]

Did anyone save this video? If so, please re-upload.

:)

A double dip recession happens in a Democratic Republic when workers finally realize there is no such thing as magic nor an alternative to hard work causing them to have to pick up as a result to move away from those socialized states to a more free enterprise ones. This Bloomberg fellow is a nut. He not only believes in the fiat banking system, but he supports the idea of the Jewish tradition of jubilees. We aren't a Hebrew people being persecuted by the Egyptians, but a nation. There is no such thing any more as miracles of a magical economy. Millions of people have died in the past working in factories establishing this nation's economy. The best the lawyering Washingtonians can do is pimp us all out of business.
That is why a double dip recession will have to happen. People aren't out there looking desperately for a way to earn a higher standard of living like they were during the mid to late eightes. Instead, they have been sitting idle at home addicted to the collecting of counterfeited welfare unemployment payments and entranced by a golden voice telling them soothingly to believe in the magical economy.

[teacherone]

A double dip recession happens in a Democratic Republic when workers finally realize there is no such thing as magic nor an alternative to hard work having to pick up as a result to move away from those socialized states to a more free enterprise ones. This Bloomberg fellow is a nut. He not only believes in the fiat banking system, but he supports the idea of the Jewish tradition of jubilees. We aren't a Hebrew people being persecuted by the Egyptians, but a nation. There is no such thing any more as miracles of a magical economy. Millions of people have died in the past working in factories establishing this nation's economy. The best the lawyering Washingtonians can do is pimp us all out of business.
That is why a double dip recession will have to happen. People aren't out there looking desperately for a way to earn a higher standard of living like they were during the mid to late eightes. Instead, they have been sitting idle at home addicted to the collecting of counterfeited welfare unemployment payments enbelieving in that golden voice telling them soothingly to believe in the magical economy.

that almost made sense!

[Uncle Emanuel Watkins]

that almost made sense!

A Democratic Republic shares power between local states and a centralized government. Indeed, anyone can learn this on Sesame Street because it is extremely simple. So, no experts need apply. Look, it isn't a matter of this or that. No political issues here. It only works one way. In the old Soviet Union where the Slavs were being persecuted by the Russians, people were either being fooled or were forced to stay where they lived. In order to solve problems, the Soviet Union dissolved to the extent where people could pick up to move to the best places to live and earn a living.

[oyarde]

I heard to keep your gold in a safe at home, that's nailed to the wall or ground. If the United States ever decides to "nationalize" people's assets (not out of the realm of possibility), where are they going to go first? Bank's safe deposit boxes. There are still several hundred cartons in the basement of the treasury that came from failed banks safe deposit boxes in the great depression....

[ronpaulfollower999]

Looks like David Tice was right...