Prediction: After South Carolina...

[No Free Beer]

I'll make this as short and simple as possible.

All the polls indicate that Gov. Romney is on his way to another primary victory. To what degree and how decisive his victory will be remains to be seen. Unless something big happens in these debates, or he stumbles within the next couple of days, he could possibly have South Carolina wrapped up.

What happens behind him is important. If Dr. Paul gets second, expect ALL of the other candidates to drop out.

- Perry almost dropped out after Iowa. He is currently at around 7% in SC. Even if he has money, I can say with certainty that he will drop out.

- Santorum's money has run dry. If he cannot win or come in 2nd in SC, he will drop out as well.

- Newt, you never know. I have a belief that this man's goal isn't even to win the nomination anymore, but to destroy Mitt Romney. I believe a 3rd place or worse finish will end his bid. Who knows what 2nd place would do.

Lets just say for shits and giggles that Romney wins with a Dr. Paul in 2nd or 3rd. Lets just say that all the other candidates drop out.


This is what is going to happen:

- All the other candidates and establishment GOPers will then all get behind Mitt Romney. They will declare "it is time to get behind our man and focus on President Obama. He has a 1 billion dollar war chest, we need to be united." As though it is more about party than country...

- What they (the GOP) will do to Dr. Paul when he announces that he is staying in the race is to try and SMEAR HIM. They will claim that he is attempting to get President Obama reelected. They will claim that he is selfish. They will claim that he is hurting the GOP. The establishment will try to force people's hand (as if they don't already) to vote for Mitt Romney, so Dr. Paul doesn't receive anymore delegates and that, again, 'we need to be united.'

The good thing? Mitt will try and appease us. Mitt is smarter than that.

Either way, this allows us and Dr. Paul the prime opportunity to go 1v1 with Romney and truly show a contrast in character and principles.

Hopefully, there will be 1v1 debates and Ron can then shine and attack Romney without worrying too much of any nasty rebuttals, knowing that Romney is trying to appease us.

So, to sum it all up, once it comes down to us vs Mitt, we will be attacked like no other and be labeled things we have not been labeled as of yet.

FOR LIBERTY!

[CaptUSA]

If Santorum and Perry drop out, Gingrich will hang on to see if he can coalesce their support around him as the alternative to Romney. He may drop out, but it will be much later.

Still, the debate gets better with fewer participants. And if Paul has more delegates than Gingrich, it gives him extra weight in those debates. Gingrich will drop out, but I'd imagine it won't be until around Super Tuesday and then he will be bought out.

[UK4Paul]

I agree with some of this, although I suspect that the Grinch will stay in a bit longer if he gets close enough to Ron Paul.

[No Free Beer]

You guys really think so?

[cdw]

Agree with others re: the Grinch. Now that his pac is being funded by the rich, he'll stay in a bit longer, at least until Florida. Definitely whichever of Santorum and Perry comes in dead last in S.C. will drop out, possibly both will. Agree with the OP regarding everything else, including the tactics by the establishment save for one thing: When Gingrich drops out and it's just Romney and Paul, the GOP will cancel the rest of the debates if they can (can they?), because there's just no way I can see them having Romney and Paul on stage by themselves. They'll try to blackout Paul more than ever, only covering him when they want to smear him.

[braane]

Gingrich is in until after Florida, at the least, the rest I agree on.

[CaptUSA]

You guys really think so?Yeah, Newt thinks of himself in hugely inaccurate historical terms. He believes that he has great support among conservatives if only the other conservatives would stop splitting HIS support. If they drop out, it allows him to get his true support.

Of course, once he finds out that support never really existed, he'll try to get Romney to buy him off the stage. I'm not sure exactly what it will take, but he will be bought.

[tbone717]

Yeah I agree that Gingrich stays in for a while. But we do have a string of caucus states (NV, ME, CO, MN) that he will do poorly in due to his lack of a ground game. Four poor showings in a row might be the end of it for Newt.

[BLS]

Ron needs a convincing 2nd place finish to have ANY chance of the nomination.

If we don't take 2nd, we're done. (that's my opinion)

Assuming Romney takes 1st and Ron takes 2nd, I see Perry and Santorum dropping out; for lack of funds/support.
Gingrich is a wildcard. He's obviously made this personal against both Paul and Romney. And he has money, so he could be a player for a while if he wanted to.

The BEST thing that could happen (aside from a RP win) is Romney wins with a large percentage, with Ron coming in a very solid 2nd, and all others with single digits.
This would catapult the debate to Ron vs. Mitt. From there, it's game on. People will have to decide if they want a liberal RINO or a true conservative who's quirky.

[hazek]

The 65+ crowd is still plugged into the TV tube spewing propaganda, therefor there is still 0% chance of actually winning. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this isn't really news and I did warn you well in advance this would happen.

As long as the corporate media propaganda machine isn't dealt with, we don't stand a chance. And you can hate me for saying this and -rep me all you want, but that is the truth, and you all know it.

[affa]

we don't need 2nd, but it would be nice.

others will drop out when they are told to. not a minute sooner, and not a minute later.

[69360]

The 65+ crowd is still plugged into the TV tube spewing propaganda, therefor there is still 0% chance of actually winning. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this isn't really news and I did warn you well in advance this would happen.

As long as the corporate media propaganda machine isn't dealt with, we don't stand a chance. And you can hate me for saying this and -rep me all you want, but that is the truth, and you all know it.

Sure let's all just quit a front running top tier campaign because of your post negative nancy. :rolleyes:

Perry is going to drop out after SC. Gingrich won't. I'm not sure about frothy, who knows what he'll do, lack of money hasn't stopped him.

[UK4Paul]

The 65+ crowd is still plugged into the TV tube spewing propaganda, therefor there is still 0% chance of actually winning. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this isn't really news and I did warn you well in advance this would happen.

As long as the corporate media propaganda machine isn't dealt with, we don't stand a chance. And you can hate me for saying this and -rep me all you want, but that is the truth, and you all know it.

Whether that's true or not, this should still be PLAYED TO WIN.

[JoshS]

No one wants to attack Romney but everyone wants to be ahead of Romney.

[tbone717]

we don't need 2nd, but it would be nice.

others will drop out when they are told to. not a minute sooner, and not a minute later.

Despite what they are "told" the reality is that candidates will drop out when they run out of money. It takes about 100 grand per day to run a campaign (ads, hotels, food, travel, salaries, etc). When they money runs out, it's over despite what TPTB might want.

[UK4Paul]

- What they (the GOP) will do to Dr. Paul when he announces that he is staying in the race is to try and SMEAR HIM. They will claim that he is attempting to get President Obama reelected. They will claim that he is selfish. They will claim that he is hurting the GOP. The establishment will try to force people's hand (as if they don't already) to vote for Mitt Romney, so Dr. Paul doesn't receive anymore delegates and that, again, 'we need to be united.'

I just thought...

...if they do that, then maybe Ron SHOULD go third party.

Or at least threaten to do so.

I think they need to be careful when playing their "smear" hand, because if enough grassroots want him to run third party, then maybe he would.

[tbone717]

I just thought...

...if they do that, then maybe Ron SHOULD go third party.

Or at least threaten to do so.

I think they need to be careful when playing their "smear" hand, because if enough grassroots want him to run third party, then maybe he would.

It's pointless. You cannot win as a third party candidate.

[Boss]

Interesting comment on Gingrich being "bought out."

I wonder what each candidate's price is. Huntsman seems to be the cheapest. Huntsman's words also seem to be the cheapest.

[InTradePro]

Perry said he'd be in until at least Florida.

[UK4Paul]

It's pointless. You cannot win as a third party candidate.

No, but neither can Republicans if RP runs third party.

That's my point.

If they end up smearing RP because he stays in the race when it's just Paul and Romney, then they risk pushing him into running third party.

Sure, RP loses then... but so do Republicans.

In other words, they are better off trying to keep him within their fold.

[MsDoodahs]

And regardless of what the GOP does, I will continue to stand for ....

NO ONE BUT PAUL.

[muh_roads]

Perry is out after SC. I'm not sure what to make of frothy lube fecal mix yet.

[archangel689]

We can force endorsements that way, I've been saying it since day one.

Ron's support will never transfer to romney under any condition, meaning that romney would lose the general election. Going third party would be even more damaging to romney.

Romney's support will transfer to ron, however. The answer is simple. If you don't back ron, you're backing obama.


They will try to smear him, but what is left for them to try to smear? Romney on the other hand has a mound of trash that hasn't even been touched yet! Mark my words, romney needs us to vote for him and theres nothing he can give us that will do that--short of selling his whole cabinet out.

ROMNEY is the HEIR to Nelson Rockefeller who compared John Birch Society members, like Paul, to the KKK and NAZIs.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fdc985gNU8c





I just thought...

...if they do that, then maybe Ron SHOULD go third party.

Or at least threaten to do so.

I think they need to be careful when playing their "smear" hand, because if enough grassroots want him to run third party, then maybe he would.

[tbone717]

No, but neither can Republicans if RP runs third party.

That's my point.

If they end up smearing RP because he stays in the race when it's just Paul and Romney, then they risk pushing him into running third party.

Sure, RP loses then... but so do Republicans.

In other words, they are better off trying to keep him within their fold.

Paul doesn't have to run third party. If he does not get the nomination a large portion of his support will vote third party regardless. Most of us did in 08, and there are more of us this time than last. Some will vote CP, some LP, some will write-in. Regardless of what we do, it is enough to hurt the GOP in key states and they will lose the election. They are already aware of this.

[walt]

The 65+ crowd is still plugged into the TV tube spewing propaganda, therefor there is still 0% chance of actually winning. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this isn't really news and I did warn you well in advance this would happen.

As long as the corporate media propaganda machine isn't dealt with, we don't stand a chance. And you can hate me for saying this and -rep me all you want, but that is the truth, and you all know it.

The campaign should go around them directly to the voters via offline word of mouth techniques.

[UK4Paul]

They are already aware of this.

Given this...

How do you think the GOP will react to the race being narrowed down to Paul vs Romney?

[Paulitics 2011]

Agreed for the most part, but I think Gingrich will stay in a little bit longer. I also think there is a slight chance that we get a Perry endorsement.

[tbone717]

Given this...

How do you think the GOP will react to the race being narrowed down to Paul vs Romney?

They will try and declare Romney as the de facto nominee, but that won't play well in states where they have yet to vote. We want a one on one race, it is inevitable in any nomination process really. If we cannot win one on one contests we have no business being in this in the first place. I am confident that once it comes down to Romney v Paul and all others have gone away we can frame the race as a red state conservative vs a blue state liberal. We do so successfully and we will win this thing.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Prediction: After South Carolina...

Romney continues to run the table?

This primary is getting ugly. Romney is now right at 40% in the national polls, with close to triple the support of the second place candidate. He's going to clean up on Super Tuesday, and in delegate-rich states like California and New York. :(

[No Free Beer]

did you guys read that Newt's 1.3 million twitter followers are almost all fake people? HAHAHA

[UK4Paul]

They will try and declare Romney as the de facto nominee, but that won't play well in states where they have yet to vote. We want a one on one race, it is inevitable in any nomination process really. If we cannot win one on one contests we have no business being in this in the first place. I am confident that once it comes down to Romney v Paul and all others have gone away we can frame the race as a red state conservative vs a blue state liberal. We do so successfully and we will win this thing.

I hope so :)

[tbone717]

Romney continues to run the table?

This primary is getting ugly. Romney is now right at 40% in the national polls, with close to triple the support of the second place candidate. He's going to clean up on Super Tuesday, and in delegate-rich states like California and New York. :(

If we believe that then we can all save ourselves a lot of time and money. I personally do not see it playing out that way at all.

[nowwearefree]

does anyone know about the money and organization situation of other campaigns?

I know perry is the most wealthy, yet he is polling so bad that i am sure he will drop out very sure

question is santorum and newt, who has more money? how much each of them has? how much organization they have afterwards?
From what i heard, santorum doesn't really have that much money after SC, so a 4th would probably means he is dropping out

[tbone717]

question is santorum and newt, who has more money? how much each of them has? how much organization they have afterwards?
From what i heard, santorum doesn't really have that much money after SC, so a 4th would probably means he is dropping out

Neither of them have much money or organization. A strong showing in SC by either one, will get a little cash coming in for the short term, but hardly enough to make it through to Super Tuesday.

[damiengwa]

I'm not sure exactly what it will take, but (Newt) will be bought.

Maybe a consulting contract as a historian with Bain capital...or maybe a radio show on clear channel!

[braane]

It's pointless. You cannot win as a third party candidate.
Not going to get the message out by having candidates with the ideas sitting on their hands. Even if Ron got only 20% as an Independent, it would be an amazing message to the media and everyone who has told us we could never get that far.

I am not giving up, though, we can still win this thing! No need to discuss being a run as an Independent when we can still be the Republican nominee.

[nc4rp]

ron will go as long as theres money. he could win as independent, because some people just hate republicans

[tremendoustie]

"Gingrich said he would “reassess” his candidacy if he lost in South Carolina and acknowledged that a Romney victory would mean “an enormous advantage going forward.”"
-- Washington Post

"If Romney can win South Carolina, he's probably going to be the nominee."
-- Newt Gingrich, in an interview on MSNBC.

Sounds like a drop-out to me.

[No Free Beer]

"Gingrich said he would “reassess” his candidacy if he lost in South Carolina and acknowledged that a Romney victory would mean “an enormous advantage going forward.”"
-- Washington Post

"If Romney can win South Carolina, he's probably going to be the nominee."
-- Newt Gingrich, in an interview on MSNBC.

Sounds like a drop-out to me.

Although I agree with you,

you never know what the hell Newt is going to do.

[Peace&Freedom]

Despite what they are "told" the reality is that candidates will drop out when they run out of money. It takes about 100 grand per day to run a campaign (ads, hotels, food, travel, salaries, etc). When they money runs out, it's over despite what TPTB might want.

A serious campaign needs about that much to keep running. Gingrich, Santorum, and (until today) Huntsman were clearly running on the fumes of debate appearances and media momentum, yet were getting by. Understand each are millionaires, who could cover their own travel expenses for short periods without new donations coming in. So for pride, or because Bilderberg control said so, they could stay in until told to stop, or get bought out ('quit now, and you get a cabinet position').